UPDATE: In a strange twist, Climate Depot reports that Brochure reveals Gore accurately cited scientist’s prediction of ice-free Arctic — It is the Scientist who has the explaining to do — not Gore
Marc Morano writes via email – This is turning into a war of phrases. Maslowski tells the UK Telegraph: “I was very explicit that we were talking about ‘near-ice-free conditions’ and not ‘completely ice-free conditions’ (as Gore claimed) in the northern ocean.”
Read details here
From the “Inconvenient Truths” department, the Times is reporting that Gore got called out for saying older figures on Arctic sea ice as “fresh” when they were not, and misrepresenting what the scientist actually said. This latest gaff makes three in a row for Mr. Gore, who recently made bizarre claims of the leaked CRU emails being “10 years old”, when there were many, many in the last decade, some in the last month. Gore also recently stated on national television recently that the Earth’s mantle was “several million degrees”, making it likely hotter than our sun.
As indicated by the Times article, his latest gaffe has not gone unnoticed by the MSM.
Excerpts of the Times article:
There are many kinds of truth. Al Gore was poleaxed by an inconvenient one yesterday.
The former US Vice-President, who became an unlikely figurehead for the green movement after narrating the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth, became entangled in a new climate change “spin” row.
Mr Gore, speaking at the Copenhagen climate change summit, stated the latest research showed that the Arctic could be completely ice-free in five years.
…
Mr Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”
However, the climatologist whose work Mr Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast.
“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”
Mr Gore’s office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a “ballpark figure” several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.
…
“This is an exaggeration that opens the science up to criticism from sceptics,” Professor Jim Overland, a leading oceanographer at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
“You really don’t need to exaggerate the changes in the Arctic.”
…
[Maslowksi said] “I was very explicit that we were talking about near-ice-free conditions and not completely ice-free conditions in the northern ocean. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this,” he said. “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.”
Read the complete Times article here
Marc Morano of Climate Depot also has a take on it here
Caption: “Our only solution is to place the Arctic ice in a Lock Box…”
Asia Times onLine ran an excellent piece by Martin Hutchinson
compareing climate models and financial models. including this by
Alexander Pope
Mad Mathesis alone was unconfined,
to mad for mere material chains to bind,
now to pure space lifts her ecstatic stare,
now, running round the circle, finds it square.
Godbless Poets Great and Small
“I coulda sworn that’s what that email said…”
As per Anthony’s update it looks like the Doc and the Goracle are trying to throw each other under the bus, here is hoping they both go.
They took away my Nobel just for saying THAT?!
Anthony-
You might want to post on this. Not sure why no one but Pielke Sr has picked up on this story from the BBC: “Himalayan glaciers melting deadline ‘a mistake’ ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8387737.stm
It compounds the IPCC’s list of errors and exagerations.
“But in a joint statement some the world’s leading glaciologists who are also participants to the IPCC have said: “This catalogue of errors in Himalayan glaciology… has caused much confusion that could have been avoided had the norms of scientific publication, including peer review and concentration upon peer-reviewed work, been respected.”
“Man, you just can’t keep up the way these climate scientists keeping changing their facts!”
“But, wait, if THAT happens, I’m out of work…”
Caption Contest
(With apologies to Robin Williams)
Gore calling Hansen, Come in Hansen . . . . Schazbut!!
What Gore said:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6956783.ece
What Dr. Wieslav Maslowski said:
http://freshnor.dmi.dk/handout_freshnor.pdf
Gore said ‘completely’, and Maslowski said ‘near’.
I suppose Gore was right initially about the arctic being ice free. If you stay within sight of the shoreline, during the summer it is ice free.
Caption: “Non cogito ergo doofus.”
Piling on.
Caption:
“O Lord, O lord, I beseech Thee – let this travail pass away.”
Caption: “I know I’m right. I saw it clearly on the front cover of my book only yesterday. Now where did I leave it?”
Weather forecast Copenhagen 🙂
http://www.yr.no/place/Denmark/Capital/Copenhagen/
Wednesday 16/12/2009
Morning 06:00 – 12:00: 1°C,
Snow. Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from west-southwest. 2.5 mm precipitation.
Midday 12:00 – 18:00, 0°C
Snow. Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from southwest. 4.3 mm precipitation.
Night 18:00 – 00:00
Snow. Gentle breeze, 0°C,
4 m/s from south-southwest. 3.5 mm precipitation.
Thursday 17/12/2009
Morning 06:00 – 12:00, -3°C
Snow. Strong breeze, 11 m/s from northeast. 0.6 mm precipitation.
Midday 12:00 – 18:00, -4°C
Cloudy. Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from northeast. 0 mm precipitation.
Night 18:00 – 00:00, -4°C
Cloudy. Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from north-northeast. 0 mm precipitation.
Friday 18 December
07:00 -4°C
13:00 -5°C
19:00 -6°C
Anthony,
I have a curious mind so I took a look at some of the raw data which is available on Arctic sea ice extent. I downloaded the raw data from 2002 to the present time from here:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
I plotted the raw data in Excel. What I see is a beautiful sine-wave, with ice partially melting in Summer and refreezing in Winter. To my eye, I do not see any particular upward or downward trend year on year.
Thank you for encouraging people to go look at the raw data themselves!
Perhaps you could plot a similar graph on your blog for all to see.
That’s why it’s called Gorebull warming….haha.
Whoever is right is wrong.
Doggy Geezer and So Soo referred to the Catlin expedition. I seem to remember that it was reported – and pictured – that they were measuring ice thickness (where it was convenient for them to do so) with an old 12 inch ruler! Maybe they should have bought a new one before they started!
Chas
Caption contest: How can the numbers be wrong?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_fallacy
CNS_News: Interview of Sen. James Inhofe (R.-Okla.)
http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=58404
Ian,
“I plotted the raw data in Excel. What I see is a beautiful sine-wave, with ice partially melting in Summer and refreezing in Winter. To my eye, I do not see any particular upward or downward trend year on year.”
Just out of curiosity, what is the phase relationship between the sine-wave and equinoxes and solstices?
In the picture the Goracle looks like he is sensing the presence of one of those ferrets like Janet Napolitano has on her head.
Exclusive: Brochure may reveal Gore accurately cited scientist’s prediction of ice-free Arctic — It is the Scientist who has the explaining to do — not Gore
Climate Depot Exclusive
Tuesday, December 15, 2009By Marc Morano – Climate Depot
Um, this guy Maslowski has been the one in various news articles over the last several years making extremely short estimates on the ice disappearing during the summer months. If Gore got it wrong, then so did everybody else:
http://beyondzeroemissions.org/media/radio/dr-wieslaw-maslowski-predicted-2013-ice-free-summer-arctic-five-years-ago-now-he-says-ma
http://www.earthsky.org/interviewpost/earth/ice-free-arctic-summers-within-a-decade
I’ve also seen articles on BBC and yahoo with headlines like “Arctic ice gone in 10 years”, etc. I even remembered the guy’s name because I wanted to remember he’d said that when it doesn’t happen. That first link refers to an article in the New York Times as well.