Gore gets caught in a factual fabrication at Copenhagen

UPDATE: In a strange twist, Climate Depot reports that Brochure reveals Gore accurately cited scientist’s prediction of ice-free Arctic — It is the Scientist who has the explaining to do — not Gore

Marc Morano writes via email – This is turning into a war of phrases. Maslowski tells the UK Telegraph: “I was very explicit that we were talking about ‘near-ice-free conditions’ and not ‘completely ice-free conditions’ (as Gore claimed) in the northern ocean.”

Read details here

From the “Inconvenient Truths” department, the Times is reporting that Gore got called out for saying older figures on Arctic sea ice as “fresh” when they were not, and misrepresenting what the scientist actually said. This latest gaff makes three in a row for Mr. Gore, who recently made bizarre claims of the leaked CRU emails being “10 years old”, when there were many, many in the last decade, some in the last month. Gore also recently stated on national television recently that the Earth’s mantle was “several million degrees”, making it likely hotter than our sun.

As indicated by the Times article, his latest gaffe has not gone unnoticed by the MSM.

Excerpts of the Times article:

There are many kinds of truth. Al Gore was poleaxed by an inconvenient one yesterday.

The former US Vice-President, who became an unlikely figurehead for the green movement after narrating the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth, became entangled in a new climate change “spin” row.

Mr Gore, speaking at the Copenhagen climate change summit, stated the latest research showed that the Arctic could be completely ice-free in five years.

Mr Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”

However, the climatologist whose work Mr Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast.

“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

Mr Gore’s office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a “ballpark figure” several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.

“This is an exaggeration that opens the science up to criticism from sceptics,” Professor Jim Overland, a leading oceanographer at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

“You really don’t need to exaggerate the changes in the Arctic.”

[Maslowksi said] “I was very explicit that we were talking about near-ice-free conditions and not completely ice-free conditions in the northern ocean. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this,” he said. “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.”

Read the complete Times article here

Marc Morano of Climate Depot also has a take on it here

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261 thoughts on “Gore gets caught in a factual fabrication at Copenhagen

  1. “You really don’t need to exaggerate the changes in the Arctic.”
    Right. Everything’s just fine.

  2. Wow,
    Gore forgot the Golden Rule of the Global Warming/Climate change Religion;
    Always make predictions so far in the future they can never be challenged.
    Now we can all point and laugh (again) in 5 years when the ice doesn’t melt. I think Gore, if at all possible, is becoming more unhinged. Instead of overtly challenging Gore, reporters should just ask simple questions and let him come apart at the seems. I hate to admit this is fun, just waiting for the next Gorism to explode.
    dirLie

  3. “You mean the Arctic is not ice free?”
    Love the photograph.
    C’mon, everyone, best caption contest is now open.

  4. Gore flossing with his Florshiem is no surprise, ToL taking note of it and doing so prominently is a significant development. The question now is whether those who are ramrodding this nonsense forward have enough fear or consideration of the views of the public to allow the tide of opinion to dissuade them from their intended path. I’m almost starting to feel cautiously optimistic.

  5. Oh dear, in the photo above Big Al looks both a very worried and tired man. I’m betting he won’t go out with any sort of bang but instead his blip will get smaller and smaller on the radar screen until he disappears into a state of permanent obscurity.

  6. Am totally thrilled to see this ! And finally some decent reporting ! Finally finally finally ……. what goes around comes around ……. he can’t be allowed to just keep making this stuff up.

  7. BTW, a question I’ve never had a really reasonable answer provided for is what exactly will be the the catastrophe that results if all the ice in the Arctic does disappear one summer?

  8. If Algore proclaims it, it doesn’t need to be fact checked. It is not worth it.
    He makes us create new words like fudgeology.

  9. There is another word for a “factual fabrication”.
    It’s called a LIE.
    This lie was putting words in a scientists mouth and I am sure Algore fully expected the scientist to keep his mouth shut and back him up.
    I now expect the media to run a complete hatchet job on this scientist.

  10. Maybe we can make Al’s wish come true by bombing the arctic ice with tons of rock salt…hey, it works on my drive way! :^)

  11. The main question I have is this… why is Al Gore getting a fact (or facts) wrong considered news-worthy? If he got something right I could understand there would be something to report, but…

  12. Henry chance (19:29:35) :
    I sense a variation on the Chuck Norris one liners coming on… let’s hope not 🙂

  13. “You really don’t need to exaggerate the changes in the Arctic.”
    Apparently, you do.
    ““I was very explicit that we were talking about near-ice-free conditions and not completely ice-free conditions in the northern ocean. …”
    Near ice free in five years. Wow, I think I’d like to take a bet on that.

  14. Al just reflects the ethics of the warm- mongers. I don’t really think the guy has an honest bone in his body.

  15. Comment under the times article 🙂
    Ben Wilson wrote:
    “There is a 75 per cent chance that Al Gore, during the summer months, could be completely fact-free within five to seven years.”
    For a split second I thought I read Al Gore would be fat-free……

  16. Al Gore, Steven Schneider, Michael Mann, etc. will NOT go quietly, no matter how we would wish it.
    Now that the press is finally listening we must make sure every such utterance from them is greeted with the facts. Not with obnoxious sarcasm, but with reasoned calm facts.
    Let them do all the screaming and ranting. The public is fed up with it and ready for the truth (a few years of cold nasty weather can do wonders).

  17. ““You mean the Arctic is not ice free?””
    I see that Google has a new feature on their front page advertising that you can now check out the effects of Climate Change on Google Earth. So I guess it would be easy to check.

  18. he is starting to look like the Dear Leader (aka Gordon Brown)
    to wit – a man whose whole world view is coming apart, while he rushes hither and yon desperately trying to maintain everything is as he believes.
    At a personal level I feel sorry for then both – a little

  19. One of the things that’s interesting here is that the scientist, Dr Maslowski, spoke out rather forcefully. Perhaps spontaneously, perhaps because he was contacted by a reporter.
    In any event, it’s possible that Mr. Gore’s recent other blunders have begun to catch up to him. Passively allowing oneself to be associated with his hyperbole may now be perceived by some scientists as a risk in it’s own right. Fascinating.

  20. ““It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.”
    Perhaps a little technicality? From March 2008:
    “We speak to Wieslaw Maslowski about his prediction that by the summer of 2013, we will have completely lost ice cover in the Arctic. Dr. Maslowski says that the complete loss of summer ice may actually happen sooner.”
    http://beyondzeroemissions.org/media/radio/dr-wieslaw-maslowski-predicted-2013-ice-free-summer-arctic-five-years-ago-now-he-says-ma
    “there’s a quote from Wieslaw that perhaps 2013 is even a possibility for the loss of the complete summer ice extent.”
    Maslowski did not object to that.
    “Matthew Wright: Ok. So now, it was reported in The New York Times that you said that 2013 was a possibility, and perhaps you’d actually projected this some years ago, that we could lose the summer sea ice extent – that’s in the summer solstice is it?
    Dr Wieslaw Maslowski: That is correct.” …
    “And this way we’re saying that actually if we already have lost probably about 40% volume in the Arctic so far, if we project this trend ongoing for the last 10 – 15 years, we probably will reach zero in summer some time mid next century, mid next decade, I’m sorry.”
    Seems he apologized for saying “mid next century”. Later,
    “Matthew Wright: So, there’s been other projections from some glaciologists around 2020. So, somewhere in that range. You said 2013 in The New York Times where it was reported, but something between then and 2020 is very in the ballpark and a likelihood.
    Dr Wieslaw Maslowski: It’s interesting that the longer we wait and the more we see what is happening, what changes are happening in the Arctic, the sooner people start predicting those changes to completely melted ice in summer in the Arctic – as soon as in the next decade or so.”

  21. I think this is a new word definition moment…
    Gored:
    as in to be Gored
    1) To be denied in public, by the author of the “quote” you are giving in public speech setting.

  22. there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free
    Um, the ice cap could be ice-free? He can’t even speak English. Exactly why does anybody with the slightest hint of intelligence believe a word he says any more? If it’s because he’s a “great public speaker”, please read the above quote again…
    Good grief!

  23. So now Big Al claims that the “Arctic could be ice free in five to seven years”. But last year he said the “entire north polar ice cap will be gone in five years”.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/14/gore-entire-north-polar-ice-cap-will-be-gone-in-5-years/
    Not that I would expect ManBearPig to be consistent, he is a politician, but shouldn’t he have said that the Arctic could be ice free in four to seven years. After all you have to be consistent if you expect people to believe you when you are being super cereal.

  24. Come on, the facts don’t matter. It doesn’t have to be “truth”. Truth-y is close enough, or maybe truth-ish. They don’t worry about the number as long as the sign is correct. The problem is that they have to keep adjusting the start and end time of the data in order to get the correct sign to the trend. And if that isn’t enough, time to “adjust” the data a little more in order to get the “truth”. It now looks as though the warmers have so many balls in the air in this act that it is becoming difficult to keep track of them all.

  25. “Jack Kendrick (19:45:58) :
    ““You mean the Arctic is not ice free?””
    I see that Google has a new feature on their front page advertising that you can now check out the effects of Climate Change on Google Earth. So I guess it would be easy to check.”
    Clicking on the graph at the top right of this page is even easier.

  26. “I was very explicit that we were talking about near-ice-free conditions and not completely ice-free conditions in the northern ocean. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this,” he said. “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.”
    “Removal” sounds pretty explicit:
    “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
    “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
    Can’t find the original Times article.

  27. One failed presidential campaign x massive ego / a new cause for global recognition to fuel massive ego = Al Gore
    Please feel free check my raw data – not that it’s widely available or even trust worthy

  28. Of course, catching Maslowski in a fibber doesn’t mean that Gore isn’t having an inconvenient moment in the press or with his “advisors”. It’s the sound of a house of cards coming down, the press is in on it, the participants are eating eachother. Quite inconvenient for Gore.

  29. Maslowski’s been in the news before with a similar prediction. In fact he said that a projection of an ice free north pole by 2013 is arguably “already too conservative.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
    A small sampling of scientists who have been in the news predicting ice free summers at the north pole:
    Vincent (2013), Serreze (2008), Barber (2008), Drobot (2008), Zwally (2012), Wadhams (2008), Lindsay (2008), Rigor (2008), Mahoney (2008)
    Mr. Gore is to be commended. He could have chosen to echo the less conservative prediction of an ice free arctic summer in 2008, had he merely meant to stir alarm.
    😉

  30. Can’t blame Al for being confused. Billions are going South. Mught have to sell the house boat. Tipper won’t like that!

  31. “Oh crap… I think I left my Christmas lights, oven, tanning bed, 75 televisions, AC, 31 blenders, a leaf blower and a hair dryer still running at home.”

  32. Yahoo has been showing the original comments by Gore as a headline all day…no correction/retraction article.

  33. No wonder the man keeps reporters at bay when he speaks; fact-checking not allowed. Just look what happens when some real reporters get to do their job and he then has to have his press rep issue clarifications.
    The transition from crusader to clown can happen so quickly. What’s worse is when the clown still takes himself seriously.

  34. Would it be violation of intellectual property rights if Al Gore’s gaffes or incovenient truth is comipled into a documentary and title Al Gore’s Inconveninet Truth”

  35. I read an article that Gore answered a question at Slate magazine stating “[humans] are responsible for a majority” of the CO2 put into the atmosphere annually. So doesn’t this gaffe make 4 in a row?

  36. For Dave Wendt:
    I am not an expert at all, BUT 😉 Arctic ice forms from the sea, so it is floating. If all of it melts it won’t raise sea level at all. Think of a glass of ice water. When the ice in the glass melts, does the water level rise? No.
    The other problem that these buffoons have is that water ways like the North West Passage have been ice free in the past. (ie: in the early 1900’s and later in the 1930’s. Even when the passage was “clear” in 2007, the few ships that went through followed ice breakers.
    None of what is happening in the Arctic is unprecedented.

  37. I *think* that’s probably more that *three* in a row.
    Q: What do you call a hypothesis that can’t predict the outcome of natural phenomena it describes?
    A: “Consensus.”
    I joke, but this waste really makes me mad.

  38. Al Gore Caption Contest:
    Private Jet to Copenhagen – $48,000 (+ 61 Carbon Credits)
    Private Limo to COP15 speech – $12,387 (+ 4 Carbon Credits)
    Kilton 5 Button Suite – $18,000 (+ .1 Carbon Credits)
    Imported Italian Silk Tie – $865 (+.038 Carbon Credits)
    Getting spanked by AGW Scientist before entire world – Priceless! (Carbon Neutral)

  39. 3 strikes and youre out Mr Gore. Admit it you know nothing about the climate you want to change.
    Monkton’s street challenge was also very good.

  40. I kind of feel sorry for Al too, and I’m pretty mean guy.
    But some of these are so funny.
    Ken (19:31:18) : “I now expect the media to run a complete hatchet job on this scientist.”
    Very funny!
    Ben Wilson wrote:
    “There is a 75 per cent chance that Al Gore, during the summer months, could be completely fact-free within five to seven years.”
    Hillarious.
    My attempt.
    “Ice free (or near) in 5 years”
    Is it going to rot away?

  41. Wow are the Times actually starting to wake up.
    Fool me once fool me. Fool me twice…

    …well you know how it goes…

  42. No doubt it, Gore is a just well-paid green sock puppet. Too well-paid, I might add but, thank God, it’s the only face they’ve got at the moment.
    That’s the problem with using famous instutions (e.g., Nobel & Oscar) to promote one’s stupid agenda. The hired hand is usually not very bright and tends to embarass the cause with absurd gaffes. Please, don’t pay attention to the man behing the curtains. It would be funny if the whole thing weren’t so pathetic and downright evil.

  43. So: it looks like Wieslaw Maslowski did say the North Pole would be ice free in a few years, and said that to Gore, but now that the ice area has been growing for two years, not shrinking, Maslowski has retreated to the “not in my lifetime” timescale but didn’t tell Gore.
    This “somebody told me a few years ago that something was going to happen in a few years, and I believe that, but no I haven’t checked it” approach reminds me of an Australian politician interviewed on AGW. He said that he was a firm believer in AGW and had been for 10 years. That means he made up his mind in 1998 and hasn’t looked at any data since.

  44. DABbio (19:18:59) :
    C’mon, everyone, best caption contest is now open.
    ———————-
    I still know I had more votes than Bush.

  45. DABbio (19:18:59) :
    C’mon, everyone, best caption contest is now open.
    ————————————-
    I think I left the iron plugged in.

  46. DABbio (19:18:59) :
    C’mon, everyone, best caption contest is now open.
    ———————————————–
    “Why can’t everyone shut up and just not question me!”

  47. Caption: Gore having an Elmer Fudd moment, sees images of a snickering Bush dancing before his eyes….again.

  48. DABbio (19:18:59) :
    C’mon, everyone, best caption contest is now open.
    ———————————————
    “I’ve just been lying altogether too much. I really do need to get a life.”

  49. There is an old hypothesis that if the N. pole goes ice free, the open ocean will evaporate lots of water vapor which will end up as snow on the northern land masses. If it all doesn’t melt every summer the Laurentian and Siberian(?) ice shields will reform; i.e. the next Great Ice Age.

  50. When I heard Al Gore had written a poem, I was inspired to try my hand–well actually, to modify Edgar Allan Poe’s hand, in particular The Raven. What surprised me was the how appropriatley and fittingly Mr. Poe’s words apply to Al Gore/global warming. I believe Al Gore’s spirit and wisdom were channeled through me to my fingers.
    THE DODO (aka The GOR’CLE)
    A Takeoff of THE RAVEN by Edgar Allan Poe
    (with apologies to Mr. Poe)
    Once upon a storm front dreary, while I pondered, cold and teary,
    Over quaint and curious e-mails of computer lore,
    While I nodded, nearly snoring, suddenly there came a harping.
    As of someone loudly harping, harping at my igloo door;
    “Tis some peddler,” I so cursed, “harping at my igloo door;
    All of that and a whole lot more.”
    Ah, distinctly I remember, it was in a bleak December,
    Cursing cold and wanting heat all the more.
    Eagerly I wished the morrow, vainly I had sought to burn
    All the poems of Albert Gore.
    For the rare and radiant shepherd whom the angels named Al Gore.
    Truthless here forevermore.
    And the warming sad crackling of each glowing ember
    made me dream of warmth galore.
    So that now, to still the chatt’ring of my teeth, I stood repeating,
    “Tis the Gor’cle entreating entrance at my igloo door,
    Some half boar entreating entrance at my igloo door.
    That it is, and nothing more.”
    Presently my legs grew warming, hesitating then no longer,
    “Sir,” said I, “or half bear, truly your forgiveness I implore;
    But the fact is, I am freezing, and so loudly you came harping,
    And so loudly you came harping, harping at my igloo door,
    Through my frozen ears I heard you. “Here I opened wide the door,–
    Darkness there, and nothing more.
    Deep into the darkness peering, long I stood there, wondering, freezing
    Doubting, cursing, thinking thoughts no mortals ever dared to think before;
    But the harping was unbroken, and the loudness gave no token,
    And the only words there spoken were the shouted words,
    “It’s frigging cold.” This I chattered, and an echo murmured back the words,
    “You got that right!” Merely this, and nothing more.
    Back into the igloo turning, all my blood within me churning,
    Soon again I heard a harping, something louder than before,
    “Surely,” said I, “surely, that is something at my igloo door.
    Let me see, then, what thereat is, and this mystery explore.
    Let my frozen bones get moving, and this mystery explore.
    “Tis some hot air, nothing more.”
    Open here I moved the ice door, when with many a lie and bluster,
    In there stepped a stoutly Gore, of the V.P. days of yore.
    Not the least obeisance made he; not a minute stopped or stayed he;
    But with mien of lord or saint, squatted by my igloo door.
    Squatted by the bust of Earth, which he set upon my floor,
    Squatted, and Squatted, and nothing more.
    Then this Gor’cle beguiling my sad fancy into smiling,
    By the grave and stern decorum of the countenance that it wore,
    “Yes, thy lies be shown and proven,” I said, “you are loosin,
    Ghastly, grim, and ancient Gore, wander from the frozen shore.
    Tell me what the lordly name is on the coastline’s receding shore.”
    Quoth the Gor’cle, “Fear for sure.”
    Much I marvelled this ungainly foul to hear discourse so plainly,
    Though his answer little meaning, little relevance bore,
    For we cannot help agreeing that no living human being
    Ever yet was cursed with seeing lies above his igloo door.
    Lies and lies upon the sculptured bust beside my igloo door.
    With such name as “Albert Gore.”
    But the Gor’cle, squatting lonely by the bust, spoke only
    Those three words, as if his soul in those words he did outpour.
    Nothing further then he uttered; not a halo then he fluttered;
    Till I scarcely more than muttered. “Please you DODO, close my igloo door!”
    On the morrow he will leave me, as my warmth has flown before.”
    Then the Gor’cle said, “Fear for sure.”
    Startled at the stillness broken by reply so dumbly spoken,
    “Doubtless,” said I, “what you selling, you debunk-ed boor?”
    Caught from some unhappy master, whom unmerciful disaster
    Followed fast and followed faster, till his lies one burden bore,—
    Till the dirges of his hope that melancholy burden bore
    Of “Fear for sure, Fear for sure.”
    But the Gor’cle still beguiling all my sad soul into smiling,
    Straight I wheeled a cushion seat for his massive behind sore;
    Then upon the velvet sinking, I betook myself to thinking
    Fancy unto fancy, thinking what a load of bearshit more –
    Meant in croaking “Fear for sure.”
    Thus I sat engaged in guessing, but no syllable expressing
    To the foul, whose fiery eyes now burned into my bosom’s core;
    This and more I sat divining, with my frozen head reclining
    On the cushion’s velvet lining that his halo gloated o’er,
    But whose halo brightness glowing with the halo gloating o’er
    He shall press, ah, fear for sure!
    Then methought, the air grew warmer, perfumed from an unseen gas
    wafting from his big fat a$$, floated to the frozen floor.
    “Wretch,” I cried, “thy God hath lent thee — by these angels he hath
    Sent thee respite–respite by the heat of Earth’s hot core.
    Quaff, O quaff this kind of bearshit, and forget the cold of yore!”
    Quoth the Gor’cle, “Fear for sure!”
    “Prophet!” said I, “think of evil!–prophet still, if God or devil!
    Whether tempter sent, or whether tempest tossed thee here ashore,
    Desolate, yet all undaunted, on this frozen land forgotten–
    On this home by icebergs haunted–tell me truly, I implore:
    Will burning be my fate forevermore?–tell me–tell me I implore!”
    Quoth the Gor’cle, “Fear for sure.”
    “Prophet!” said I, “think of evil-prophet still, if huckster or devil!
    By that heaven that bends above us–by that God we both adore–
    Tell this soul with sorrow laden, if, within the distant future,
    You shall clasp a painted maiden, whom the Danish call a whore–
    Clasp a poor and sullied maiden, whom the Danish call a whore?
    Quoth the Gor’cle, “You got that right.”
    Be that word our sign of parting, foul or fiend!” I shrieked, upstarting–
    “Get thee back into the tempest and the land’s declining shore!
    Leave no smoke plume as a token of that lie thy soul hath spoken!
    Leave my frozen soul unbroken! — quit thy evil by my door!
    Take thy nose from oust thy butt, and take thy lard a$$ from off my door!”
    Quoth the Gor’cle, “Fear for sure.”
    And the Gor’cle, never flitting, still is squatting, still is squatting
    By the burning bust just beside my frozen door;
    And his eyes have all the seeming of a demon’s that is scheming.
    And the halo light o’er him streaming strains to reach the frozen floor,
    And my soul from out that shadow that lies frozen to the floor
    Shall be lifted — when you leave, you GOD DAMN BOOR.
    </small?

  51. DABbio (19:18:59) :
    C’mon, everyone, best caption contest is now open.
    ————————————————
    “I’m melting! I’m melting! My world! My world! My beautiful wickedness!”

  52. No offense intended toward those whose hobbies/livelihoods include writing poetry, but between that climate poem and the out-there recent ‘factual’ mistakes I seriously think the guy has absolutely lost it. (Hey, I was an English major, and his poetry is just plain awful.)
    IMHO, with ClimateGate, AGW has jumped the shark.
    Caption? How about: “Keep my hand on my temple, my thumb on the altar” (it is a religion for the Rev. Gore, after all…)
    -DY
    PS-Maybe in Al’s mind, ‘AGW’ stands for ‘Al Gore Wins’; is it time to start using ‘AGL’? (Al Gore’s Lost it)?

  53. Al Gore has been claiming the North Pole will be ice-free “within 5 years” since at least 2008. Here is a Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrPCUWWjh0c&feature=player_embedded
    Let’s not restart the clock each time Gore repeats this. The rest of the AGW community generally distances itself from this claim … but Gore is their poster-boy. In the summer of 2013 we will see if Gore is more accurate than the IPCC in AGW predictions. The global temp projections made in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th IPCC assessment reports have all been proven wrong already … prior to the current El Nino the earth was cooler than the “best case” projections made in each of these reports … and still cooler than the average projection.
    It seems to make more sense to focus on the IPCC failed predictions rather than those made by someone who took only two science classes in college (got a C in one and a D in the other).

  54. Hank Hancock (20:44:35) :
    “Getting spanked by AGW Scientist before entire world – Priceless!”
    Getting spanked when he wasn’t wrong about what Maslowski said is worth even more. It’s his word against Maslowski.
    He’s put his faith in people who will turn on him for little to no reason. Gore should be looking embarrassed. Scientists will *never* be pinned down on anything. They think they have the right to change their opinion as evidence changes. That’s fine, except when they alarm the world with “degrees of confidence”. Maslowski wants out, as can be seen in “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.” His words speak for themselves that he puts a high confidence level on melting by 2013. I see no reason to doubt Gore’s claim that “75%” is what he was told during a telephone call.

  55. DABbio (19:18:59) :
    C’mon, everyone, best caption contest is now open.
    ———————–
    “Why does there have to be a snow storm every f@*#%#g where I go!”

  56. re: Mr. Artday
    I have not seen a compelling, ‘tight’ description of how the continental ice masses formed. If you look at the current focal points of formation for the last ice age, there appears to have been unbelievable ice genesis on Baffin Island (feeding the sheets that extended to Wisconsin). This would require (as I understand it) accelerated precipitation–and so I find it plausible that an open Arctic Sea, combined with the ‘right’ prevailing wind patterns (Pamela Gray, you often talk about the jet stream–picture it running over Baffin 300 days out of the year), could indeed spur this. It doesn’t have to be cold everywhere; it’s often tropical at the foot of glaciers (such as in NZ–and yes, I recognize these are alpine, not continental, but it seems similar principles should apply).
    Accelerate the glacier creation ‘engine’ on Baffin, and you have the potential for an ever-growing, high albedo microclimate–getting bigger and bigger. High albedo minimizing melt, and continuing ice creation at the source feeding the sheet.
    I realize I may be smoking crack here, but since colder=drier, wouldn’t warmer=more movement of water to the land–and that ‘water’ being ice/snow at high latitudes (like Baffin)?

  57. Here’s more proof that Prophet Gore is an “exaggerator”! This is something He has done continously and now a Scientist doesn’t want to be associated with this!!! Good for the Scientist, not for the Prophet and the AGW cause! With ClimateGate hanging over there heads, they surely do not need this…You have to remember, Alarmists have been stating for over 20 years now that we are going to burn up soon if something isn’t done about it!!! Well, they are STILL talking temperature increases of 1/100th’s of a degree over time…Prophet Gore first exageration was that He stated ” I helped develope the Internet….I think most people brushed the comment off….Now, you should start seeing a pattern….It’s very evident IMO…..

  58. Dave Wendt (19:28:03) :
    BTW, a question I’ve never had a really reasonable answer provided for is what exactly will be the the catastrophe that results if all the ice in the Arctic does disappear one summer?
    As I understand it, the problem is that the sun’s rays will be absorbed by the ‘dark’ ocean as opposed to reflected by the ice. That is a positive feedback, in essence, as once the ice goes, it gets even warmer, preventing a refreeze.
    I have a number of issues with this theory:
    1. The angle of incidence would possibly cause much of the light to be reflected anyway. Certainly at that angle much light is reflected in my experience (think sunset / sunrise over an ocean).
    2. There is just NOT much heat from the sun up there anyway (hence the ice cap).
    3. The ice cap actually keeps the warmer sea warm (this is what typically happens in lakes etc or fish would die – in fact this odd property of water, being lighter as a solid, is one of the reasons it is essential to life as we know it). If it melts, the sea would emit heat that would otherwise be trapped, thus reducing, wait for it …….. ‘Global Warming’!
    I have seen a few theories bounced about here by more knowledgeable minds than mine, but that seems to be the essence if I recall correctly.

  59. davidc (19:42:21) :
    “If I stay still like this for 25 seconds everyone will have forgotten”
    My abs are killing me from laughing!!

  60. Doug in Seattle (19:45:40) :
    Al Gore, Steven Schneider, Michael Mann, etc. will NOT go quietly, no matter how we would wish it.

    I prefer that, that they are being dragged out of the room kicking and screaming “that we have no right and that this is a free world with free speech and such, how dare you, get your hands of me”, what goes around comes around gentleman.
    As for the caption: George left his (read: my) office a year ago and i am still stuck here while Barrack Obama…. sigh!

  61. Being a Poe fan and acquainted with the great Vincent Price, that was excellent,
    Reed Coray (21:17:17) ….

  62. What I would like to know is how long ago did Al Gore get this information about the North Polar ice completely melting within five years? If it was more than five years ago then the Ice cap should already be gone. If it hasn’t been five years then we need to know so we can set our count down clocks.

  63. Gore’s ‘new computer models showing an ice free arctic within five years’ was part of the lead story on TVNZ’s One News tonight….
    People trying to get this stuff pushed through know that all they need to do is say it. It doesn’t matter if it’s true or false, they know that the media will pick up the line, forget about the retraction and now a fair chunk of the NZ public is reeling at dinner tables up and down the country.
    This guy and his mates are real PITA’s!!
    Sometimes I just wish that we could have one person on TV long enough to tell those same people reeling from Al Gore’s latest exaggeration to just go and switch on the family PC and check things out for themselves!! I saw a U TUBE piece the other day with Monkton debating one such person on the street. 10 minutes of ferreting around is all it would take for people to get suspicious enough to click their way to an epiphany of immense proportions!!
    One can only dream…..

  64. Caption:
    “Former Vice President Al Gore gives his accountant the secret hand signal to dump shares of Generation Investment Management while being fact checked at a press conference last night in Copenhagen”

  65. Since Reed Coray published his anti-Gore poem on this thread, allow me to post my poem, which I also posted on National Review Online (it made the several finalists published). I read Gore’s poem in his latest book and I knew I was a better poet than he is:
    From fevered brows
    spring acid lies.
    Dissent stifled;
    fraud prevails in the semantic age.
    The shepherd cries
    too loudly, methinks.
    Louder he cries,
    less people know.
    Then true disaster,
    the loss of liberty,
    strikes harder and faster
    than lightning upon a dessicate forest.
    Beware of charlatans
    posing as prophets.

  66. Glenn (21:31:22) :
    All good points. It has become a dog eat dog world in AGW politics. Gore probably didn’t think he would be so quickly thrown under the bus. As alarmists try to save face, It seems there is no shortage of busses lately.

  67. Gerald Machnee (20:34:25) :
    “Wasn’t Dr. Maslowski in charge of the three hikers to the north pole last spring??”
    Yes, and I’m thinking that he gave Gore the “75%” figure over the phone sometime before that. Not to defend Gore, often misinformed and ignorant, but as far as I know, not a liar.

  68. I think Al Gore might be Joe Biden’s brother. Big mouths, full o’ crap, gaffe machines. Can two people be that full of it and not be related?

  69. Not read the posts. Maybe said. Two items…sort of related.
    1) Has anyone kept track of the predictions made by Gore and others… say, going back a few years. In 2007, some Canadian goofs said Arctic ice would be gone by 2012 … something like that. We should start a collection of predictions that have failed. Oh BTW it will soon be 20 years since the first IPCC report. That was full of predictions headed South.
    2) Not unrelated. I’ve started (wow two items so far) a list of researchers who keep saying:
    A) “The region I am studying has warmed much more than everywhere else.” And
    B) There is a similar slant. “This area I am studying is expected to get much warmer than elsewhere.”
    We need a good catalog of the silly predictions and statements.
    I predict that it will be dark tonight and light again tomorrow. ☺
    Cheers!
    Clive
    Where, as I write, it has warmed to a balmy -31°C. Wow!

  70. Caption:
    “Mr. ButterFigures goes to CopenHagen”.
    (Way to go, Al, you’re halfway under the bus already.)

  71. Dave Wendt and others about no or little ice on the Arctic Ocean
    A positive aspect, I think, is that Polar Bears would have to eat more goose eggs and as there are too many geese – or were a few years ago – this would work toward habitat protection of the far North. I looked this stuff up last spring and posted it but don’t have time now, but it wasn’t hard to find on the Web.

  72. Five to seven years?
    Well then, that’s that. By AGW theory we might already have passed one or more tipping points as the permafrost is thawing and releasing methane, besides some other “facts.” Even the IPCC said the warming will continue for quite some time centuries even. Even if we could shut down civilization overnight, which we cannot, there will still be volcanoes, massive fires, and other CO2 sources loading up the atmosphere. Therefore the melting of the Arctic ice is officially inevitable.
    Which leads to the caption:
    Wow, things are just not working out here. Maybe I should start investing in new Canadian beachfront properties instead.
    Fetch that man a geological map showing where the new waterline will be! Don’t forget to figure in the ocean rise!

  73. In Norwegian newspapers now the norwegian foreign minister says that I am “strangely constructed in my head” or something like that, If I dont believe what Mr. Gore’s latest report is saying.
    http://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/klimatrusselen/artikkel.php?artid=599182
    Of course you cannot understand the text, but…..
    -Sealevels to increase more than 1 meter (3 ft) within 2100
    ( Worst case 2 meters)
    -Now its methane instead of CO2….
    -They talk about Antarctica melting….hmmmm then its gonna be real hot….
    -Oh…the scientists have understood Archimedes’es law….melting of Arctic wont have much to say….good…
    Aha; The message is;
    I’m stupid if I dont understand that we are in trouble if everything melts down…..I see.
    Well, I thought the issue was;
    I’m stupid if I dont accept its man-made?
    hmmmm….I must be stupid.

  74. Many years ago, door-knocking for his first election campaign, Al Gore visited some remote farms. As he stepped out of his car heading to one farmhouse door, he stepped in a fresh, sloppy, steaming cowpie. Al looked down to see what has caused the sudden stench and slipperiness under foot. “Oh, no!” he cried, “I’m melting, I’m melting!”

  75. Caption contest:
    “Why won’t any take me super cereal when I talk about manbearpig?”
    Hey, Al baby, if ya need a little ego/cred boost, ol’ Lord Monckton needs a punching bag….er partner for a little discussion over tea and crumpets. I swear, it’ll be just what the doctor ordered. Trust me. I only have your best interests at heart. I’ll even pinky swear to it.

  76. DABbio (19:18:59) :
    C’mon, everyone, best caption contest is now open.
    “Brain overheating… need to replace cooling unit before everyone discovers I am a Scarran/Sebacean hybrid…”

  77. Hank Hancock (22:10:57) :
    “All good points. It has become a dog eat dog world in AGW politics. Gore probably didn’t think he would be so quickly thrown under the bus. As alarmists try to save face, It seems there is no shortage of busses lately.”
    I’m more concerned about the scientist’s reputation than in Gore’s accuracy. Maslowski claims to remember the telephone conversation with Gore, that Gore said happened “several” years ago. Seems he doesn’t disagree that he gave some ballpark figure %, but that he would never be so specific with a prediction, and claiming he explicitly referred to “near” ice-free as opposed to “complete” ice-free conditions in 2013. Weasel words.
    The problem is that he has, over two years ago. He said “If this trend persists, the Arctic would be ice-free [in the summer] by 2013”. The word “would” indicates not 75%, but 100% confidence. He made no mention of “near” ice-free conditions, but “ice-free by summer 2013”. He also said that prediction didn’t factor in 2005 and 2007 conditions, and has commented on the conditional “if” (the trend continues) as a “projection” on “track” and too “conservative”.
    What Wadhams said ““Maslowski’s work is very well respected, but he’s a bit out on a limb,” said Professor Peter Wadhams, a specialist in ocean physics at the University of Cambridge” is liable to be what set him off against Gore.

  78. Listening to Sattelite radio on the way home the AP news covered this.
    Well 1/2 of it.
    The reported Al Gore saying that the arctic will be ice free in 5-7 years.
    No follow up on the fact tha tthe guy he says he got his numbers from said no such thing.

  79. Al Gore is 99% focused on how he say things and 1% what he says?
    Maybee he is the first person that is convinced?
    Next level would be:
    “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, was completely ice-free five to seven years ago. So in order to prevent this from happening we have to act now and swiftly ”
    ?

  80. “Most climate scientists agree that a 20 to 30-year timescale is more likely for the near-disappearance of sea ice.”
    Most scientists agree total summer ice loss at the end of a period of exactly 1 Hermie!
    (See entertaining discussion of the alarmism of Herman Kahn and the definition of the “Hermie” here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8408386.stm )

  81. Caption contest:
    “I’m a fraud.. tomorrow, I’m going to be exposed for what I am, a big imposter.. I just want to curl up and lay in bed all day and eat Fig Newtons.”

  82. Caption contest:
    I am just a fool.. I.. I don’t know what I’m doing.. I’m gonna die homeless and penniless and twenty pounds overweight.. no one will come to my funeral… no one will ever love me..

  83. Meanwhile virtually all of the older ice, that used to cover 2/3 of the Arctic Sea, is gone.
    Ice free summer and ‘seasonal ice’ will be the fact in less than five years. Do the math.
    Reply: I’m willing to wager that you are wrong. Let’s say 5,000 US dollars that summer minimum Arctic sea ice extent will not fall below 2 million square kilometers in the next five years as measured by JAXA. ~ charles the moderator.

    REPLY2:
    Yes RR, let’s put your money where your mouth is. What say you? Deal or No Deal? Sending you an email to make sure you know about this. – Anthony Watts

  84. ‘He’s Cletus, the slack-jawed yokel.’
    To add to the festive cheer, for those not familiar with the psychogeography of England, Norfolk is our own, largely mythical, hillybilly country. This adds an extra spice to the link between Man(n)BearPig and CRU’s Dr Tim of South Park.

  85. Iceteam headache?
    Ken Lay said this would be easy.
    I think I have a fever…NO NO the Earth has a fever!
    Now where did the little grey aliens implant the reset button?
    Hey what do you want ?
    not everyone can channel the bard of Baltimore

  86. kwik: I had great respect for mr. Støre – until yesterday. Just the fact that he is co-presenting this work with scare-profitmaker Gore made me angry and sad.
    And why are they bringing up the methane scare again? (See: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/10/that-worrisome-methane-beast-apparently-is-still-not-awake/)
    Mr. Støre should examine his own brain and look for inconsistencies between his global warming religious belief and hard facts about the Arctic: E.g. that many parts of the arctic were just as warm 60-70 years ago (in fact, Nuuk of Greenland was warmer (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=431042500000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1), or that the Barents sea just outside Norway’s coast was in the same ballpark (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/08/new-paper-barents-sea-temperature-correlated-to-the-amo-as-much-as-4°c/).

  87. so soo (00:14:53) : said:
    Not seen the Catlin Arctic Survey preliminary results yet which can be found here (http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/) or the one from the rocket scientists at NASA which is found here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztz3ZdPbdKo) . I love the smell of roasting [snip] basting in their own self created flames . Such is life , when being blind to that which is obvious in the natural world makes fools of us all .
    Reply:
    And now all you need to do is prove that it’s man made CO2 causing this and I’ll be straight over to your side of the fence kind sir…..
    I wait with baited breath…..

  88. Okay, the seventh-century time warp I’m stuck in still remembers that, immediately after the Climategate broke, Al gave Copenhagen the sad news he *wouldn’t* be there because he had a previous engagement he had suddenly recollected, or his sock drawer was being renovated, or something. Did he decide to ride in and reverse the shambles with his White Knight Magic Lance after all?

  89. There is a 75 per cent chance that Al Gore, during the summer months, could be completely fact-free within five to seven years.

  90. Dave Wendt (19:28:03) : wrote
    quote BTW, a question I’ve never had a really reasonable answer provided for is what exactly will be the the catastrophe that results if all the ice in the Arctic does disappear one summer? unquote
    Professor Robert Essenhigh suggests that no ice leads to more snow which sets off cooling. A beneficent feedback.
    I think the areas of the Arcic which are refusing to freeze as quickly as past experience expects are polluted with oil. Melting ice releases entrained oil and makes matters worse. A positive feedback.
    It will be interesting to watch.
    JF

  91. I’m not sure that Google Earth is a reliable source. Google CEO Eric Schmidt was Governor Arnuld’s co-presenter last week when the Gov. revealed the San Francisco underwater scenario. If Schmidt is an alarmist, and I suspect he is, that calls the source into question.
    Give a few minutes with Photoshop and I’ll show you visual proof that Africa doesn’t exist.

  92. “My venture fund has $5bn invested in AGW, my assets are $70m, please pray hard for a strong El Nino next year so I can cash out”

  93. What happened to Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency data? I had been collecting daily artic ice data thru Dec 13 2009 then last evening the data was removed back to Dec 10 2009 and has not been updated since.

  94. Richard Lindzen, a climate scientist at the Massachusets Institute of Technology who does not believe that global warming is largely caused by man, said: “He’s just extrapolated from 2007, when there was a big retreat, and got zero.”

  95. Gregg E. (23:13:33) :
    Shortly before the first Clinton / Gore inauguration, they visited Mt. Vernon, Thomas Jefferson’s home.
    They were followed around by a camera crew. The best bit of video from it is when they went into the room with busts of the early Presidents.
    Gore points a finger around and says “Uhhh, who are these people?” Clinton looked right at the camera, rolled his eyes up with a look on his face as if he was thinking “Why did I choose this idiot to be Vice President?”.

    Actually, Mount Vernon was Washington’s home, not Jefferson’s. Clinton and Gore were at Monticello.
    However, your point is well-taken and I was going to make the same comment a few days ago. I remember it too and wish I had that clip. It’s priceless.

  96. What a disappointment !
    WE thought we norwegians were the rulers of the “climate world”.
    Publishing scary reports every other week !
    And now !!…. hoping to get the attention after giving him the Nobel Peace Price, what do we read ???
    (blog.algore.com) The DANISH foreign minister ??!! He is norwegian !!!
    Another hit from Al Gore 🙂

  97. Don’t forget when he pointed to Antactica in An Inconvenient Truth and said, “If this disappears, sea level world wide goes up 20 ft.” LOL! More like well over 200ft there Mr. Gore. Get your catastrophes straight man!
    This clown reminds me of the old addage, “when you give someone enough microphone cord, they will eventually hang themselves with it.”

  98. If Al Gore is smart he will in the future shorten the length of his speeches.
    There is plenty of evidence that the number of “factual fabrications” is directly proportional to the length of the speech. A 15-20 second speech is more suitable.

  99. “This is an exaggeration that opens the science up to criticism from sceptics,” Professor Jim Overland, a leading oceanographer at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
    “You really don’t need to exaggerate the changes in the Arctic.”
    Actually, you do. If you don’t exaggerate them there is no story…

  100. so soo (00:14:53) : said:
    “Not seen the Catlin Arctic Survey preliminary results yet which can be found here..”
    I looked. The first thing I saw was this line:
    “The Catlin Arctic Survey, completed earlier this year, provides the latest ice thickness record, drawn from the only survey capturing surface measurements conducted during winter and spring 2009…”
    Wasn’t there a German airbourn expedition at the same time, which successfully ran a radar study with results which contradicted Catlins?

  101. Doesn’t the Arctic become ‘near-ice-free’ every summer? Looking at summer pictures verses winter pictures (I haven’t had the privilege of visiting the poles, myself), it wouldn’t be a stretch of the imagination to make that statement. Sort of like saying a man with $1 million is ‘poor’ compared to a man with $5 million…
    Quite simply, making an abstract statement such as this cannot be proven false, so appears to be (and will appear to be) true; especially when one presents pictures of a largely ice free area (say, a dozen or so square kilometers out of several million) of the Arctic.

  102. Climate Depot has a story up which says Gore’s citing of the claim was accurate. Seems to be several different claims and issues involved, and a plethora of editor’s notes in the CD story.
    Curious to see how it shakes out.

  103. @ Larry (22:07:24) :
    great poem…better than Gore’s.
    caption:
    “Where’s Bill Clinton when you need him and some sex scandal to distract the public?”

  104. Everything you need to know about Copnehagen is here. If you know exactly how to reduce the previously vibrant economy of a nation to one with quality below that of a Banana Republic you are welcome to speak.
    “Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe was among the first heads of state to touch down in the Danish capital, avoiding a travel ban imposed by Western nations because he was attending to a U.N. conference. Mugabe was to address the conference on Wednesday.”
    http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20091215/Climate/?cid=NET_SZHeadlineRSSLinks&attr=article_news_general_Climate

  105. Perhaps I am being optimistic, but this is the second time the Times has been critical of AGW alarmists in a week. First, in their report of the Met Office “petition” they prominently reported on an anonymous source saying he felt pressured to sign up and now a big headline on Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth” that doesn’t add up. This headline is still on the frontpage of the Online version.
    The Telegraph in the UK has been decent for a while and this weekend the Mail on Sunday (one of the biggest Sunday papers in the UK) ran a pretty decent article on ClimateGate. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1235395/SPECIAL-INVESTIGATION-Climate-change-emails-row-deepens–Russians-admit-DID-send-them.html – Ignore the tag-line as the article is a good deconstruction)
    I also see a note above on the UK Conservative party beginning to question the accepted wisdom as well – perhaps following on from the Australian Liberals ditching their leader over their version of Cap and Trade.
    This is starting to look like an inflection point in the official position, which would be about right, given that the inflection in public opinion probably happened 12-18 months ago.
    Or perhaps I’m just an optimist….

  106. Schadenfreud is the only word that comes to mind for me!
    My entry for the Caption Contest is
    “But I thought they had my back”

  107. Climategate seems to be having an effect
    This is the first time I have seen one of Big Al’s outrageous statement immediately questioned in the mainstream media. At last we are beginning to see some balance

  108. Ig-dzine (03:43:19) :
    “Richard Lindzen, a climate scientist at the Massachusets Institute of Technology who does not believe that global warming is largely caused by man, said: “He’s just extrapolated from 2007, when there was a big retreat, and got zero.” ”
    If we would employ the same extrapolation on the data of the past 2 years we would have to conclude that the extent of the summer ice is going to overtake that of the winter ice in less than 10 years.

  109. Do you think it has dawned on Gore yet, that everyone else is running for cover except him?
    Caption: “Hey, where’d everybody go?”

  110. I must say the November ice extent graph for the last 30 years does show a convincing downward trend of 4.5% per decade. Not surprising of course since there is convincing warming in the arctic over that period, as a opposed to the antarctic.
    http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20091207_Figure3.png
    Extrapolating this trend in the same silly linear fashion would render the north pole ice-free in November within two centuries.

  111. Al Carbone is now desparate. He has tumbled from his throne. I suspect he will make more appearances, even take some questions and maybe contemplate a debate. he craves attention. This surge of Al’s will fizzle.
    It hurts to see how he is embarassing himself and doing so without assistance.

  112. Don’t know if anyone’s seen this before but it is a MUST SEE.
    Not OT because it reveals yet another instance of Al Gore’s astonishing ability to, ahem – how shall I put it? – lie?
    Listen to what Taylor says around 3.22. In a nutshell, at the time Al Gore was V.P. an 11 man committee from the National Academy of Sciences that included Richard Lindzen and another scientist from the IPCC, directly advised the White House that the IPPC report was NOT as sound basis for policy. How then, in An Inconvenient Truth and thereafter, is Gore able to repeatedly trumpet the mantra that the science is settled?
    This is video from the BBC5tv YouTube channel of the former UN Environmental Advisor, Peter Taylor, speaking about the conflicting science regarding climate change and the ensuing confusion.
    It is priceless in its own right because it truly gives the lie to the idea that there was EVER any kind of consensus about the cause of global warming – even at the level of the IPCC – coming, as it does, from someone who was clearly party to the processes involved.

    If you want to see Peter Taylor introduce himself and give some background to his authority, watch this as well:

  113. *****FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST*****
    [In Danish, of course]
    The Danish National Weather (Not Climate) Service the “DNWNCS” has issued a Gore Effect Snow Advisory for the broadcast area for the remainder of the Conference.
    Light snow is currently falling in the capital city. On Wednesday evening, a polar front will sweep through and temperatures will plunge to hard freeze levels at night and fail to reach freezing during the day….for the remainder of the entire week….and into next week.
    Residents are advised to take steps to protect life and property during this prolonged winter event….including pets and any brainwashed youth protesters who might be stranded out in the freeze.
    *****End broadcast*****
    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  114. Andrew Bolt of the Herald Sun
    Had these comments about Al Gore and the vanishing Ice that never does vanish. (It was orginally supposed to vanish in 2008 —- OOPS!
    Two years ago Californian researchers warned the ice in the Arctic could vanish in 2012.  Or thereabouts, agreed a NASA scientist. The US National Snow and Ice Data Centre claimed it could even be ice-free in 2008.
    The Arctic ice in 2008 increased.
    Oh. All right, so Al Gore in December 2008 adjusted his prediction of an ice-free Arctic to 2013:
    See here for the rest of the info:
    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/arctic_refuses_to_behave_predictions_adjusted/

  115. Well, what do you expect from a divinity school dropout who got Cs in business school. Those sort of people are not noted for being able to tell the difference between an erg and a berg.

  116. @ Chris Schoneveld (06:10:21) :
    I must say the November ice extent graph for the last 30 years does show a convincing downward trend of 4.5% per decade. Not surprising of course since there is convincing warming in the arctic over that period, as a opposed to the antarctic.
    Yes, Virginia the AMO does exist and the past 30 years has been the warming phase of the AMO. That has now rolled over and is heading into the cooling phase. I suspect that if one were to take the next 30 years and extrapolate it, you would start writing pieces about the oncoming ice age the way they did 30 years ago. Some things never change. One of them is the habit of linear extrapolation of cyclic trends.

  117. I consider the Times to be on the Left end of the MSM … they are not the Telegraph. If the Times are calling him out, he’s “jumped the shark” (North American slang).

  118. I like the new word I have learned here:
    Algorerythm. Yes, I like it!
    Its hillarious that Al Gore thinks Støre is the Danish Foreign Minister. I love that too. Thank you for the Nobel Prize, Mr. Støre.
    Another thing is that Støre didnt look too pleased about the situation. Maybe one of the issues inside his head was that having Al Gore as his partner up there might damage his chances of ever becoming a Prime Minister.
    Just think of it …. Climategate …. IPCC …… Al Gore …. Støre..

  119. Having made my calculations, with the aid of my young grandson, I hereby predict. without fear of contradiction, that if that plasma stuff that’s millions of degrees Celsius, bubbles up just another 57 feet, the ice cap will be gone by next Tuesday. I’m beginning to enjoy this arithmetic stuff.

  120. The sad thing about this, Gore will not go away even though he is a complete liar and is driven by fraud. Most of the entire media is driven by lies and fraud now as well, so the truth is never communicated to the masses. Think you Mr Watts for showing us a fair and balanced view.
    thanks,
    Steve

  121. Headline Caption:
    Former Presidential wanna-be has brain fart! Contemplates name change!!
    Sub-headline:
    With thoughts of becoming the first two-timer, Peace Prize winner Al Gore is considering becoming AGW Doubting Thomas.

  122. The Reverend Al Goracle should have taken a cue from Nostradamus and made his predictions numerous, vague, and cryptic.

  123. The leading alarmists have started eating each other. That is a sure sign of knowledge of guilt.
    If the science stands on it’s own, then just open the books! What do you have to hide?

  124. Climate Depot says Algore was accidently correct. I am sure he didn’t intend to be.
    Here are 4 “green jobs”

    They sure crank out the carbon.

  125. I wish he would just get on with it and grow out the greasy dread locks, [snip] and join the like minded folks out on the street. The guy has become unhinged and it will get worse as the religion he preaches is rejected by more and more common people.

  126. @Ben Wilson
    A numerically gifted acquaintance has analyzed your statement about Gorefacts and determined that your hockey stick is inverted. Your line should read “Gore has been fact free for at least 5 to 7 years”. A look at his college records indicates that this condition may have existed in his 20s or even earlier. Analysis is under way.

  127. I think he is looking sad as as he contemplates the fate of the polar bears.
    And you heartless people laugh…
    😉

  128. Asia Times onLine ran an excellent piece by Martin Hutchinson
    compareing climate models and financial models. including this by
    Alexander Pope
    Mad Mathesis alone was unconfined,
    to mad for mere material chains to bind,
    now to pure space lifts her ecstatic stare,
    now, running round the circle, finds it square.
    Godbless Poets Great and Small

  129. As per Anthony’s update it looks like the Doc and the Goracle are trying to throw each other under the bus, here is hoping they both go.

  130. Anthony-
    You might want to post on this. Not sure why no one but Pielke Sr has picked up on this story from the BBC: “Himalayan glaciers melting deadline ‘a mistake’ ”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8387737.stm
    It compounds the IPCC’s list of errors and exagerations.
    “But in a joint statement some the world’s leading glaciologists who are also participants to the IPCC have said: “This catalogue of errors in Himalayan glaciology… has caused much confusion that could have been avoided had the norms of scientific publication, including peer review and concentration upon peer-reviewed work, been respected.”

  131. Caption Contest
    (With apologies to Robin Williams)
    Gore calling Hansen, Come in Hansen . . . . Schazbut!!

  132. What Gore said:

    during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6956783.ece
    What Dr. Wieslav Maslowski said:

    Should the present trend of sea ice melt continue, some models suggest that the Arctic Ocean could become near ice free in the summer time within one decade.

    http://freshnor.dmi.dk/handout_freshnor.pdf
    Gore said ‘completely’, and Maslowski said ‘near’.

  133. I suppose Gore was right initially about the arctic being ice free. If you stay within sight of the shoreline, during the summer it is ice free.

  134. Caption: “I know I’m right. I saw it clearly on the front cover of my book only yesterday. Now where did I leave it?”

  135. Weather forecast Copenhagen 🙂
    http://www.yr.no/place/Denmark/Capital/Copenhagen/
    Wednesday 16/12/2009
    Morning 06:00 – 12:00: 1°C,
    Snow. Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from west-southwest. 2.5 mm precipitation.
    Midday 12:00 – 18:00, 0°C
    Snow. Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from southwest. 4.3 mm precipitation.
    Night 18:00 – 00:00
    Snow. Gentle breeze, 0°C,
    4 m/s from south-southwest. 3.5 mm precipitation.
    Thursday 17/12/2009
    Morning 06:00 – 12:00, -3°C
    Snow. Strong breeze, 11 m/s from northeast. 0.6 mm precipitation.
    Midday 12:00 – 18:00, -4°C
    Cloudy. Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from northeast. 0 mm precipitation.
    Night 18:00 – 00:00, -4°C
    Cloudy. Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from north-northeast. 0 mm precipitation.
    Friday 18 December
    07:00 -4°C
    13:00 -5°C
    19:00 -6°C

  136. Anthony,
    I have a curious mind so I took a look at some of the raw data which is available on Arctic sea ice extent. I downloaded the raw data from 2002 to the present time from here:
    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
    I plotted the raw data in Excel. What I see is a beautiful sine-wave, with ice partially melting in Summer and refreezing in Winter. To my eye, I do not see any particular upward or downward trend year on year.
    Thank you for encouraging people to go look at the raw data themselves!
    Perhaps you could plot a similar graph on your blog for all to see.

  137. Doggy Geezer and So Soo referred to the Catlin expedition. I seem to remember that it was reported – and pictured – that they were measuring ice thickness (where it was convenient for them to do so) with an old 12 inch ruler! Maybe they should have bought a new one before they started!
    Chas

  138. Ian,
    “I plotted the raw data in Excel. What I see is a beautiful sine-wave, with ice partially melting in Summer and refreezing in Winter. To my eye, I do not see any particular upward or downward trend year on year.”
    Just out of curiosity, what is the phase relationship between the sine-wave and equinoxes and solstices?

  139. In the picture the Goracle looks like he is sensing the presence of one of those ferrets like Janet Napolitano has on her head.

  140. Exclusive: Brochure may reveal Gore accurately cited scientist’s prediction of ice-free Arctic — It is the Scientist who has the explaining to do — not Gore
    Climate Depot Exclusive
    Tuesday, December 15, 2009By Marc Morano – Climate Depot

  141. Um, this guy Maslowski has been the one in various news articles over the last several years making extremely short estimates on the ice disappearing during the summer months. If Gore got it wrong, then so did everybody else:
    http://beyondzeroemissions.org/media/radio/dr-wieslaw-maslowski-predicted-2013-ice-free-summer-arctic-five-years-ago-now-he-says-ma
    http://www.earthsky.org/interviewpost/earth/ice-free-arctic-summers-within-a-decade
    I’ve also seen articles on BBC and yahoo with headlines like “Arctic ice gone in 10 years”, etc. I even remembered the guy’s name because I wanted to remember he’d said that when it doesn’t happen. That first link refers to an article in the New York Times as well.

  142. jbrodhead,
    “Just out of curiosity, what is the phase relationship between the sine-wave and equinoxes and solstices?”
    Minimum Arctic ice extent occurred on these dates (DD/MM/YY):
    09/09/02, 18/09/03, 11/09/04, 22/09/05, 14/09/06, 24/09/07, 09/09/08, 13/09/09
    Maximum Arctic ice occurred on these dates (DD/MM/YY):
    21/03/03, 10/03/04, 06/03/05, 11/03/06, 10/03/07, 09/03/08, 05/03/09
    (note there is some noise in the data at the turning points).
    The Summer solstice (longest day in Northern hemisphere) occurs on the 20th or 21st of June, and the Winter solstice occurs on 20th or 21st of December.
    This is interesting – the maximum/ minimum Arctic sea ice appears to lag behind the longest/shortest day by almost three months. This is not what I was initially expecting. Ah it must be because in Winter, the nights continue to be longer than the days until the equinoxe. (and vice versa in Summer).
    Looking back at the data, most often the minimum and maximum ice occurs just before the corresponding equinoxe. Hmm I am not sure why this is. I don’t think it could be due to noisy data alone.

  143. Caption- I wish I would have said this- ” Based on my own climate model, there is a 75% chance that my facts could be wrong- you see, there are fresh facts, fresh ice, rotten ice, new ice, summer ice, old ice, ice cream, etc. How would I know, I don’t even ice skate”.

  144. Al Gore is a boob and unfortunately a boob with power and influence. What has happened to the profession of journalism that no one asks this incompetent even moderately difficult questions. His answers would expose him for fraud that he is. I wasn’t too pleased with Bush but just think where we would be if this boob had made it to the White House.

  145. Slowly, ever so slowly, Gore’s reputation is changing. Below is a direct quote from the UK’s Daily Telegraph
    “The Prince, who flew in by private jet, joined Arnold Schwarzenegger the Governor of California and Al Gore, the former US Senator, who also flew in to add impetus to the talks. ”
    Source, dated 15/12/2009:-
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/6819392/Copenhagen-climate-summit-Prince-Charles-warns-climate-change-will-drive-starvation-and-terrorism.html

  146. People should show Al Gore more respect, he really is a very intelligent man and truly cares for the enviroment. There’s so many people out there that could give a [snip] less about the world, atleast he’s trying.


  147. DABbio (19:18:59) :
    C’mon, everyone, best caption contest is now open.

    “I don’t need food. I need socks! I’m freezing my ass off out here.”
    (For those of you reading the Seth Borenstein thread)

  148. martyn (12:47:31) :
    Exclusive: Brochure may reveal Gore accurately cited scientist’s prediction of ice-free Arctic — It is the Scientist who has the explaining to do — not Gore
    Climate Depot Exclusive
    The problem is that Goreacle talks about the information as if it is his own and he did all the research. All he does is regurgitate “facts”.
    Hannah, don’t be naive….he doesn’t care about the environment, he cares about how green his bank account is.
    Caption: Gore: I picked a great day to stop snorting cocaine!

  149. Hannah (15:03:46) :
    People should show Al Gore more respect, he really is a very intelligent man and truly cares for the enviroment.

    If your comments were meant to be sarcastic, then read no further. If your comments are to be taken at face value, then please read on.
    If Al gore is truly a very intelligent man and truly cares for the environment, then he’s the best actor in the world. To paraphrase Forrest Gump: “Intelligence is as intelligence does”, and Al Gore doesn’t do intelligence.
    He demonstrates his love of the environment by owning a home that Hoover Dam struggles to power, flying hither and yon in a private jet, having limos waiting with their air conditioners running so that when he makes the short walk from the hotel to his limo he won’t be uncomfortable, etc. If you claim such actions imply he cares about the environment, then in addition to its not being necessary to question Al Gore’s intelligence, it’s also not necessary to question yours.

  150. What is the hoot in this story, of course, is that that dufus Gore was reciting a prediction made by a scientist 5 to 7 years ago that the polar ice caps would be gone in 5 to 7 years (from his prediction).
    Well it is 5 to 7 years later and the prediction is false.
    Gore thought the prediction was just made this year and that he would have 5 to 7 years from now before it was shown to be wrong.
    What a bunch of dopes. These idiots, in their rush to grab a headline, can’t even keep their lies straight.
    Serenity now…………….

  151. Captions are all so great. I couldn’t possibly decide. I also loved this remark.
    Kate (02:03:53) :
    “There is a 75 per cent chance that Al Gore, during the summer months, could be completely fact-free within five to seven years.”
    Could have been the headline.

  152. “If your comments were meant to be sarcastic, then read no further. If your comments are to be taken at face value, then please read on.”
    They were, I was being acerbic but apparently it didn’t come off as strongly as I had intended. I agree with you, Al Gore’s a prick.

  153. Hannah…that is a clarification I understand and apprciate.
    Although most average pricks might not like it.

  154. @nolan (05:28:44) :
    Last month, when the e-mails became public, I commented simply with the same word…schadenfreude
    I continue to take pleasure in the revelations of this scandal. I hope AGW’s demise is quick enough to prevent additional global misery.

  155. Hvordan (15:41:55) :
    Thank you for that link – that is a dramatically different data set, which also goes further back in time.

  156. Robert van der Veeke (21:44:09) :
    Doug in Seattle (19:45:40) :
    Al Gore, Steven Schneider, Michael Mann, etc. will NOT go quietly, no matter how we would wish it.
    But they are headed to the backwaters. They can do all the kicking and screaming they want there. No one will care.

  157. From the update: Climate Depot reports that Brochure reveals Gore accurately cited scientist’s prediction of ice-free Arctic — It is the Scientist who has the explaining to do — not Gore
    Al stated “These figures are fresh,” and then one of his spokesweasels stated “the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a ‘ballpark figure’ several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.”
    Is a percentage estimate several years old *fresh* in the Gore universe? Sorry, but he’s *still* got some “ehsplainin’ to do”…

  158. Remember the “witch test”, about which Monty Python made such fun?
    It might not be a bad idea…
    Stake Aligory to the ice at the North Pole. (and tell Santa to ignore the whining)
    If Aligory remains on top of ice, 24/7/365.25 for the next 5-7 years, he’s a fraud.
    If, within the 5-7 years, Aligory sinks like whale crap, to the bottom of the ocean, he might have been onto something.

  159. Damage control:
    just in from news.yahoo

    Clarification: Gore misspoke on polar ice data
    COPENHAGEN – In an early version of a Dec. 14 story, Al Gore told the U.N. climate conference that new data suggested the Arctic polar ice cap may disappear in the summertime within five to seven years. Gore’s office later clarified his statement and said he meant the cap would be nearly ice-free.

    Ah, he misspoke. That’s all right, then.
    Similarly, when I intimated that Mr Gore is a self-interested, proctoleichous, hypocritical, hyperpachypygous and lucripetous liar, I misspoke: what I should have said is that Mr Gore is nearly always a self-interested, proctoleichous, hypocritical, hyperpachypygous and lucripetous liar. Sorry.

  160. Don’t downplay this article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8387737.stm
    “Mr Cogley says it is astonishing that none of the 10 authors of the 2007 IPCC report could spot the error and “misread 2350 as 2035”.
    “I do suggest that the glaciological community might consider advising the IPCC about ways to avoid such egregious errors as the 2035 versus 2350 confusion in the future,” says Mr Cogley.
    He said the error might also have its origins in a 1999 news report on retreating glaciers in the New Scientist magazine.
    The article quoted Syed I Hasnain, the then chairman of the International Commission for Snow and Ice’s (ICSI) Working group on Himalayan glaciology, as saying that most glaciers in the Himalayan region “will vanish within 40 years as a result of global warming”.
    Glacier
    Scientists say Himalayan glaciers need more study
    When asked how this “error” could have happened, RK Pachauri, the Indian scientist who heads the IPCC, said: “I don’t have anything to add on glaciers.”
    The IPCC relied on three documents to arrive at 2035 as the “outer year” for shrinkage of glaciers.
    They are: a 2005 World Wide Fund for Nature report on glaciers; a 1996 Unesco document on hydrology; and a 1999 news report in New Scientist.
    Incidentally, none of these documents have been reviewed by peer professionals, which is what the IPCC is mandated to be doing.
    Murari Lal, a climate expert who was one of the leading authors of the 2007 IPCC report, denied it had its facts wrong about melting Himalayan glaciers.
    But he admitted the report relied on non-peer reviewed – or ‘unpublished’ – documents when assessing the status of the glaciers. ”
    I LOVE the “No comment ” from the head of the IPCC! LOL
    The blood is Definitely in the water here…..

  161. @Ian (10:48:16) :
    “Anthony,
    I have a curious mind so I took a look at some of the raw data which is available on Arctic sea ice extent. I downloaded the raw data from 2002 to the present time…
    I plotted the raw data in Excel. What I see is a beautiful sine-wave, with ice partially melting in Summer and refreezing in Winter. To my eye, I do not see any particular upward or downward trend year on year.”
    The sea ice extent is highly correlated with the seasons.
    Causality?
    My conclusion is that the sea ice is causing the seasons to change. By extension, sea ice extent is effecting the incident angle of solar radiation – it’s tilting the earth! If AGW is such a dire concern, then I suggest we increase the sea ice extent in order to force the climate colder. If it gets too cold, we can reduce the sea ice extent (pile it up nice and high).
    He who controls the sea ice extent controls the climate!

  162. RR Kampen (00:32:02):
    “Ice free summer and ’seasonal ice’ will be the fact in less than five years. Do the math.”
    That is a very definitive statement. Now that you have been offered a wager that summer sea ice will not fall below 2,000,000 square kilometers within 5 years, what is your answer?
    Will you take the bet?
    [My prediction: Kampen will chicken out.]

  163. Hi Charles (moderator) and Anthony,
    I’ve taken a long time to respond to your wager, because your suggestion is honourable and I’m normally quick to take on a bet I have reasonable trust in.
    My conclusion in short: I think your offer is very fair and I am grateful for the realistic idea of leaving me two million square kilometers of ice extent; but the fact of the matter is that I can simply not afford to lose $5000.-. So if I believe I will win the bet at a confidence level of say 90%, I still don’t dare, like I don’t buy a lottery ticket for five hundred bucks right now even on these odds.
    At the same time it is beneath any honour to ask you to reduce the stakes.
    Financially I expect things will improve but the bet can no longer be valid by then (e.g. because I already won by October 2010 – blocked years can be Arctic killers 😉 ).
    Therefore I have no choice but to decline your wager.
    And to thank you for your good offer.
    Off the record, then: said confidence level of 90% is what I carry. For next year: 10-20%, an extreme circulation pattern (like summer 2007) would be needed. But I believe the erosion is progressing every year (viz. the multiyear ice). The graphs and the essential point that ice break-up occurs wholesale over vast areas when thickness has fallen below a threshold of little under two feet have led me to expect ‘ice-free’ Arctic season for the first time around 2012-2015, per guess in September 2005 that I never saw reason to change yet. I am seriously one of the least surprised on the planet about what happened in 2007. That was off the record.
    Finally an interesting aside: the snowfall last Sunday in this country was unheard of in modern times. 1979 (which I remember, nine years old) would have been worse, and then some older winters. I never saw snowfall so dense as to reduce visibility to less than fifty metres. Besides this: three hours of ‘summery’ thunder and that in snow is a first for me (I have seen the blizzard product of 7.03 metres in Februay 1979, beside a million of 2-5 m).
    The country has been in total disarray for three days, the entire economy on half power. Temperaturewise it’s fairly cold, especially for the 21st century, but nothing extreme (my hopes are on January, then, my hobby being skating) – that is: around or a couple degrees below freezing. On the other hand, this cold is starting to linger and will make December a fairly cold month despite the very mild first two weeks. It will become the second cold month of 2009 at an anomaly of about -2.5 to -3° C (please check this with GISS around 12 January). Slightly even below last year’s actually.
    I submit that the Gore-effect is totally devastating and I’m ROFL with it every day I pull my bike through the fat sludge to get to my office 🙂
    Have a great, preferably white, X-Mas!

  164. RR Kampen,
    An honest and thoughtful response simply for the fact that you appear to have taken the bet seriously and apparently would not have tried to welch if you accepted and lost.
    However, expect to be challenged with more wagers from now on if I see you express certainty on a trend I disagree with and upon which a wager can be placed.
    You said clearly you expected the trend would go from the current 4 million km2 to zero. I gave you a free 2 million km2 and you still backed down.
    Talk is cheap. Conviction costs. 5,000 dollars is not a trivial amount for me either. I would have had to a lot of juggling to pay off a loss in my current circumstances.

  165. Charles, I would lose my roof instantly… I mean that.
    I’d rather have to risk being found ‘cheap’.
    90% is not ‘conviction’. It is an educated guess based on some evidence. Like any scientist I don’t spend my life wagering on my guesses, by the way.
    I will consider wagers as they come. Personally I think a couple of beers ought to do for any wager in a discussion like this. Getting insight into climate(-change) is just so much more important, for me at least.

  166. Charles tm,
    “Let’s say 1,000 US dollars that summer minimum Arctic sea ice extent will not fall below 2 million square kilometers in the next five years as measured by JAXA.”
    That is the wager?

  167. Yes that is the wager.
    You say: summer minimum Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 2 million square kilometers in the next five years as measured by JAXA.
    I say: summer minimum Arctic sea ice extent will not fall below 2 million square kilometers in the next five years as measured by JAXA.

  168. No can do the wager.
    It implies depositing the money somewhere trustworthy and safe during the periode and I cannot muster the amount.
    Sorry.
    REPLY: Then choose a smaller amount that is less risk. I suggest then $1000. There are any number of banks that can do this. Simply setup a certificate of deposit or savings account. Very easy and safe to do. Millions do so.- Anthony

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