Data adjustments in the UK Science Museum "Prove It!" poll on climate

Seems everywhere you look these days, data adjustments are being made. Shortly after WUWT first made the UK Science Museum Prove It! poll on climate change known here, Ric Werme and others have setup tracking systems to log the online voting data reported on the poll’s website, a poll that was said by its designers to be important enough to present to UK MP’s and representatives headed for Copenhagen.

Ric Werme sums it all up below. The question to the Science Museum is: What’s the spike all about? Another question is: why do the ending numbers posted on your website for the public differ so much from what was tracked and logged automatically from your own website? An explanation is required.  – Anthony

By Ric Werme from his website here:

Science Museum In/Out Climate Counter Raw Data

graph

The raw data is available graphically, thank you David, at http://proveit.isgreat.org/

This web page tracked the in and and out counts logged in yet-another-unscientific-poll, this one was created by the Science Museum. (It’s in London, they expect you to know that.) (The poll was whether to be counted in or out of helping to get the British Government to negotiate “a strong, effective, fair deal at Copenhagen.”)

A dialog about all things related to this ill-conceived and ill-executed poll is at Watts Up With That, Anthony Watts’ blog, which was voted the top science blog of 2008 in another not-very-scientific poll. (But better than the Museum’s!)

In all fairness, it does seem that the Science Museum may have some of the intended design working, at least this data doesn’t show obvious vote stuffing behavior, but does show major adjustments to the vote counts on Nov 12th. The poll had major problems early in its history, so one really shouldn’t look at this as fair or scientific. However, the Museum is intending to provide the data to the government, so I guess they consider it “close enough for government work” and hence fair game for any sort of attention, be it praise or criticism. I’m not expecting much praise.

Nov 15: News from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation is that the goals for the Copenhagen have been scaled way back, and that there will not be a treaty produced there. What that means for this poll is unclear, but there now seems little point in saying “I want the government to prove they’re serious about climate change by negotiating a strong, effective, fair deal at Copenhagen.” Until the Museum throws in the towel, I’ll keep monitoring the exercise.

Nov 23: Mike Post reports “I have just submitted a FOI request to the Science Museum.” They have 20 working days to respond, and Mike has gotten the pro forma acknowledgment that the Museum has received the request.

Nov 25: In the aftermath of the CRU Email, data, code and more leak, Mike Haseler has created a petition to “suspend the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia from preparation of any Government Climate Statistics until the various allegations have been fully investigated by an independent body.”

I’m logging the count of signatories there, but don’t currently plan to put the data on the web unless something interesting happens. One problem with their web page is that their server reports it doesn’t change, but it definitely does. You may have to empty your browser’s cache and then reload the page to see new counts.

Nov 29: A Watts Up With That post reminding folks about the poll included links to the poll and this site. The result was several hundred new “Count Me Out” votes and an order of magnitude fewer “Count Me In” votes. Soon thereafter a surge began in the “Count Me In” votes.

Dec 1: The Museum didn’t announce an ending point for the poll, but they ended it yesterday and didn’t shut the voting down until today. They reported a final tally of 6058 / 8238 but that never occurred, look at the raw data! I’ll ask about it.


This page holds the raw data fetched from the Museum. This is the data that was fetched from the Museum.

A sister page displays data from each even hour and daily counter changes in a tabular form.

-Date- -Time       ---in  --out

Oct 29 01:27 UTC:    784   5386

Oct 29 01:30 UTC:    784   5386

Oct 29 01:35 UTC:    784   5387

Oct 29 01:40 UTC:    784   5388

Oct 29 01:41 UTC:    784   5388

Oct 29 01:45 UTC:    784   5388

Oct 29 01:50 UTC:    784   5390

Oct 29 01:55 UTC:    784   5391

Oct 29 02:00 UTC:    784   5392

Oct 29 02:00 UTC:    784   5392

Oct 29 02:05 UTC:    784   5392

Oct 29 02:10 UTC:    784   5392

Oct 29 02:15 UTC:    784   5394

Oct 29 02:20 UTC:    784   5394

Oct 29 02:25 UTC:    784   5394

Oct 29 02:30 UTC:    785   5395

Oct 29 02:35 UTC:    785   5396

Oct 29 02:40 UTC:    785   5396

Oct 29 02:45 UTC:    785   5396

Oct 29 02:50 UTC:    785   5396

Oct 29 02:55 UTC:    785   5397

Oct 29 03:00 UTC:    785   5399

Oct 29 03:05 UTC:    785   5400

Oct 29 03:10 UTC:    785   5401

Oct 29 03:15 UTC:    785   5401

Oct 29 03:20 UTC:    785   5401

Oct 29 03:25 UTC:    785   5401

Oct 29 03:30 UTC:    785   5401

Oct 29 04:00 UTC:    785   5402

Oct 29 04:30 UTC:    785   5404

Oct 29 05:00 UTC:    785   5405

Oct 29 05:30 UTC:    785   5406

Oct 29 06:00 UTC:    787   5408

Oct 29 06:30 UTC:    787   5410

Oct 29 07:00 UTC:    787   5412

Oct 29 07:30 UTC:    787   5413

Oct 29 08:00 UTC:    787   5413

Oct 29 08:30 UTC:    789   5420

Oct 29 09:00 UTC:    791   5428

Oct 29 09:30 UTC:    792   5433

Oct 29 10:00 UTC:    792   5440

Oct 29 10:30 UTC:    793   5448

Oct 29 11:00 UTC:    793   5453

Oct 29 11:30 UTC:    793   5460

Oct 29 12:00 UTC:    794   5466

Oct 29 12:30 UTC:    794   5469

Oct 29 13:00 UTC:    794   5479

Oct 29 13:30 UTC:    795   5485

Oct 29 14:00 UTC:    796   5492

Oct 29 14:30 UTC:    797   5501

Oct 29 15:00 UTC:    797   5511

Oct 29 15:30 UTC:    798   5514

Oct 29 16:00 UTC:    798   5525

Oct 29 16:30 UTC:    799   5534

Oct 29 17:00 UTC:    799   5544

Oct 29 17:30 UTC:    802   5554

Oct 29 18:00 UTC:    803   5562

Oct 29 18:30 UTC:    803   5572

Oct 29 19:00 UTC:    806   5580

Oct 29 19:30 UTC:    815   5584

Oct 29 20:00 UTC:    817   5590

Oct 29 20:30 UTC:    817   5598

Oct 29 21:00 UTC:    819   5603

Oct 29 21:30 UTC:    821   5611

Oct 29 22:00 UTC:    822   5618

Oct 29 22:30 UTC:    822   5623

Oct 29 23:00 UTC:    823   5631

Oct 29 23:30 UTC:    825   5635

Oct 30 00:00 UTC:    825   5644

Oct 30 00:30 UTC:    825   5646

Oct 30 01:00 UTC:    826   5650

Oct 30 01:30 UTC:    826   5653

Oct 30 02:30 UTC:    826   5659

Oct 30 03:00 UTC:    826   5663

Oct 30 03:30 UTC:    826   5665

Oct 30 04:00 UTC:    826   5666

Oct 30 04:30 UTC:    826   5666

Oct 30 05:00 UTC:    826   5666

Oct 30 05:30 UTC:    826   5666

Oct 30 06:00 UTC:    826   5667

Oct 30 06:30 UTC:    826   5670

Oct 30 07:00 UTC:    826   5671

Oct 30 07:30 UTC:    826   5674

Oct 30 08:00 UTC:    827   5675

Oct 30 08:30 UTC:    828   5679

Oct 30 09:00 UTC:    829   5686

Oct 30 09:30 UTC:    829   5697

Oct 30 10:00 UTC:    829   5705

Oct 30 10:30 UTC:    829   5714

Oct 30 11:00 UTC:    830   5726

Oct 30 11:30 UTC:    831   5729

Oct 30 12:00 UTC:    831   5734

Oct 30 12:30 UTC:    832   5741

Oct 30 13:00 UTC:    832   5751

Oct 30 13:30 UTC:    836   5756

Oct 30 14:00 UTC:    845   5763

Oct 30 14:30 UTC:    849   5770

Oct 30 15:00 UTC:    852   5776

Oct 30 15:30 UTC:    857   5782

Oct 30 16:00 UTC:    859   5787

Oct 30 16:30 UTC:    861   5793

Oct 30 17:00 UTC:    861   5798

Oct 30 17:30 UTC:    862   5803

Oct 30 18:00 UTC:    864   5806

Oct 30 18:30 UTC:    868   5811

Oct 30 19:00 UTC:    868   5815

Oct 30 19:30 UTC:    870   5817

Oct 30 20:00 UTC:    872   5818

Oct 30 20:30 UTC:    874   5823

Oct 30 21:00 UTC:    874   5825

Oct 30 21:30 UTC:    875   5828

Oct 30 22:00 UTC:    875   5833

Oct 30 22:30 UTC:    877   5835

Oct 30 23:00 UTC:    878   5836

Oct 30 23:30 UTC:    878   5841

Oct 31 00:00 UTC:    878   5844

Oct 31 00:30 UTC:    879   5844

Oct 31 01:00 UTC:    880   5845

Oct 31 01:30 UTC:    880   5846

Oct 31 02:00 UTC:    880   5847

Oct 31 02:30 UTC:    880   5847

Oct 31 03:00 UTC:    880   5848

Oct 31 03:30 UTC:    880   5848

Oct 31 04:00 UTC:    880   5849

Oct 31 04:30 UTC:    880   5850

Oct 31 05:00 UTC:    880   5851

Oct 31 05:30 UTC:    880   5851

Oct 31 06:00 UTC:    880   5852

Oct 31 06:30 UTC:    880   5853

Oct 31 07:00 UTC:    880   5855

Oct 31 07:30 UTC:    880   5856

Oct 31 08:00 UTC:    880   5857

Oct 31 08:30 UTC:    884   5860

Oct 31 09:00 UTC:    886   5861

Oct 31 09:30 UTC:    887   5864

Oct 31 10:00 UTC:    888   5866

Oct 31 10:30 UTC:    888   5871

Oct 31 11:00 UTC:    889   5872

Oct 31 11:30 UTC:    889   5875

Oct 31 12:00 UTC:    889   5878

Oct 31 12:30 UTC:    891   5882

Oct 31 13:00 UTC:    892   5884

Oct 31 13:30 UTC:    892   5887

Oct 31 14:00 UTC:    892   5888

Oct 31 14:30 UTC:    893   5891

Oct 31 15:00 UTC:    895   5896

Oct 31 15:30 UTC:    896   5899

Oct 31 16:00 UTC:    899   5904

Oct 31 16:30 UTC:    899   5907

Oct 31 17:00 UTC:    900   5912

Oct 31 19:30 UTC:    903   5932

Oct 31 20:00 UTC:    904   5934

Oct 31 20:30 UTC:    905   5936

Oct 31 21:00 UTC:    906   5944

Oct 31 21:30 UTC:    906   5949

Oct 31 22:00 UTC:    907   5954

Oct 31 22:30 UTC:    908   5955

Oct 31 23:00 UTC:    909   5958

Oct 31 23:30 UTC:    909   5961

Nov 01 00:00 UTC:    909   5964

Nov 01 00:30 UTC:    910   5967

Nov 01 01:00 UTC:    910   5969

Nov 01 01:30 UTC:    910   5972

Nov 01 02:00 UTC:    911   5976

Nov 01 02:30 UTC:    911   5978

Nov 01 03:00 UTC:    911   5979

Nov 01 03:30 UTC:    911   5979

Nov 01 04:00 UTC:    911   5981

Nov 01 04:30 UTC:    911   5981

Nov 01 05:00 UTC:    911   5981

Nov 01 05:30 UTC:    911   5982

Nov 01 06:00 UTC:    911   5983

Nov 01 06:30 UTC:    911   5983

Nov 01 07:00 UTC:    911   5984

Nov 01 07:30 UTC:    911   5984

Nov 01 08:00 UTC:    911   5985

Nov 01 08:30 UTC:    912   5987

Nov 01 09:00 UTC:    912   5988

Nov 01 09:30 UTC:    913   5991

Nov 01 10:00 UTC:    917   5996

Nov 01 10:30 UTC:    918   6000

Nov 01 11:00 UTC:    920   6001

Nov 01 11:30 UTC:    922   6001

Nov 01 12:00 UTC:    926   6001

Nov 01 12:30 UTC:    928   6003

Nov 01 13:00 UTC:    929   6006

Nov 01 13:30 UTC:    930   6010

Nov 01 14:00 UTC:    932   6010

Nov 01 14:30 UTC:    933   6010

Nov 01 15:00 UTC:    934   6012

Nov 01 15:30 UTC:    936   6014

Nov 01 16:00 UTC:    938   6015

Nov 01 16:30 UTC:    940   6017

Nov 01 17:00 UTC:    943   6023

Nov 01 17:30 UTC:    945   6029

Nov 01 18:00 UTC:    946   6030

Nov 01 18:30 UTC:    948   6034

Nov 01 19:00 UTC:    951   6035

Nov 01 19:30 UTC:    952   6038

Nov 01 20:00 UTC:    952   6043

Nov 01 20:30 UTC:    954   6043

Nov 01 21:00 UTC:    955   6049

Nov 01 21:30 UTC:    955   6049

Nov 01 22:00 UTC:    958   6054

Nov 01 22:30 UTC:    959   6056

Nov 01 23:00 UTC:    962   6058

Nov 01 23:30 UTC:    963   6059

Nov 02 00:00 UTC:    965   6060

Nov 02 00:30 UTC:    966   6061

Nov 02 01:00 UTC:    966   6062

Nov 02 01:30 UTC:    967   6063

Nov 02 02:00 UTC:    967   6063

Nov 02 02:30 UTC:    967   6064

Nov 02 03:00 UTC:    967   6066

Nov 02 03:30 UTC:    967   6067

Nov 02 04:00 UTC:    967   6067

Nov 02 04:30 UTC:    967   6068

Nov 02 05:00 UTC:    967   6069

Nov 02 05:30 UTC:    967   6070

Nov 02 06:00 UTC:    967   6070

Nov 02 06:30 UTC:    967   6071

Nov 02 07:00 UTC:    967   6071

Nov 02 07:30 UTC:    967   6072

Nov 02 08:00 UTC:    967   6074

Nov 02 08:30 UTC:    967   6077

Nov 02 09:00 UTC:    970   6081

Nov 02 09:30 UTC:    974   6082

Nov 02 10:00 UTC:    976   6085

Nov 02 10:30 UTC:    978   6090

Nov 02 11:00 UTC:    983   6092

Nov 02 11:30 UTC:    983   6094

Nov 02 12:00 UTC:    986   6096

Nov 02 12:30 UTC:    988   6097

Nov 02 13:00 UTC:    991   6103

Nov 02 13:30 UTC:    992   6105

Nov 02 14:00 UTC:    994   6106

Nov 02 14:30 UTC:   1000   6108

Nov 02 15:00 UTC:   1004   6109

Nov 02 15:30 UTC:   1006   6110

Nov 02 16:00 UTC:   1009   6112

Nov 02 16:30 UTC:   1012   6116

Nov 02 17:00 UTC:   1014   6117

Nov 02 17:30 UTC:   1017   6117

Nov 02 18:00 UTC:   1018   6117

Nov 02 18:30 UTC:   1021   6119

Nov 02 19:00 UTC:   1027   6121

Nov 02 19:30 UTC:   1029   6122

Nov 02 20:00 UTC:   1033   6125

Nov 02 20:30 UTC:   1035   6127

Nov 02 21:00 UTC:   1038   6129

Nov 02 21:30 UTC:   1043   6133

Nov 02 22:00 UTC:   1046   6134

Nov 02 22:30 UTC:   1051   6138

Nov 02 23:00 UTC:   1053   6141

Nov 02 23:30 UTC:   1055   6142

Nov 03 00:00 UTC:   1060   6143

Nov 03 00:30 UTC:   1062   6147

Nov 03 01:00 UTC:   1064   6149

Nov 03 01:30 UTC:   1066   6149

Nov 03 02:00 UTC:   1067   6150

Nov 03 02:30 UTC:   1068   6151

Nov 03 03:00 UTC:   1069   6151

Nov 03 03:30 UTC:   1069   6153

Nov 03 04:00 UTC:   1072   6155

Nov 03 04:30 UTC:   1074   6155

Nov 03 05:00 UTC:   1075   6156

Nov 03 05:30 UTC:   1077   6156

Nov 03 06:00 UTC:   1077   6157

Nov 03 06:30 UTC:   1077   6159

Nov 03 07:00 UTC:   1080   6161

Nov 03 07:30 UTC:   1081   6164

Nov 03 08:00 UTC:   1089   6167

Nov 03 08:30 UTC:   1094   6171

Nov 03 09:00 UTC:   1105   6173

Nov 03 09:30 UTC:   1116   6181

Nov 03 10:00 UTC:   1128   6187

Nov 03 10:30 UTC:   1144   6195

Nov 03 11:00 UTC:   1167   6197

Nov 03 11:30 UTC:   1198   6201

Nov 03 12:00 UTC:   1221   6204

Nov 03 12:30 UTC:   1245   6207

Nov 03 13:00 UTC:   1266   6217

Nov 03 13:30 UTC:   1287   6229

Nov 03 14:00 UTC:   1308   6234

Nov 03 14:30 UTC:   1328   6238

Nov 03 15:00 UTC:   1343   6239

Nov 03 15:30 UTC:   1354   6240

Nov 03 16:00 UTC:   1366   6243

Nov 03 16:30 UTC:   1381   6245

Nov 03 17:00 UTC:   1395   6250

Nov 03 17:30 UTC:   1409   6255

Nov 03 18:00 UTC:   1421   6258

Nov 03 18:30 UTC:   1434   6261

Nov 03 19:00 UTC:   1447   6263

Nov 03 19:30 UTC:   1455   6267

Nov 03 20:00 UTC:   1462   6271

Nov 03 20:30 UTC:   1473   6274

Nov 03 21:00 UTC:   1482   6276

Nov 03 21:30 UTC:   1488   6281

Nov 03 22:00 UTC:   1495   6284

Nov 03 22:30 UTC:   1506   6286

Nov 03 23:00 UTC:   1513   6288

Nov 03 23:30 UTC:   1519   6290

Nov 04 00:00 UTC:   1522   6293

Nov 04 00:30 UTC:   1528   6297

Nov 04 01:00 UTC:   1529   6299

Nov 04 01:30 UTC:   1533   6299

Nov 04 02:00 UTC:   1534   6301

Nov 04 02:30 UTC:   1535   6304

Nov 04 03:00 UTC:   1535   6306

Nov 04 03:30 UTC:   1536   6309

Nov 04 04:00 UTC:   1536   6309

Nov 04 04:30 UTC:   1537   6309

Nov 04 05:00 UTC:   1539   6310

Nov 04 05:30 UTC:   1539   6311

Nov 04 06:00 UTC:   1540   6312

Nov 04 06:30 UTC:   1540   6312

Nov 04 09:30 UTC:   1542   6312

Nov 04 10:00 UTC:   1550   6314

Nov 04 10:30 UTC:   1564   6315

Nov 04 11:00 UTC:   1575   6318

Nov 04 11:30 UTC:   1584   6321

Nov 04 12:00 UTC:   1597   6321

Nov 04 12:30 UTC:   1603   6325

Nov 04 13:00 UTC:   1608   6328

Nov 04 13:30 UTC:   1614   6330

Nov 04 14:00 UTC:   1621   6333

Nov 04 14:30 UTC:   1625   6334

Nov 04 15:00 UTC:   1630   6339

Nov 04 15:30 UTC:   1636   6342

Nov 04 16:00 UTC:   1640   6344

Nov 04 16:30 UTC:   1647   6344

Nov 04 17:00 UTC:   1649   6351

Nov 04 17:30 UTC:   1654   6355

Nov 04 18:00 UTC:   1657   6361

Nov 04 18:30 UTC:   1663   6364

Nov 04 19:00 UTC:   1667   6367

Nov 04 19:30 UTC:   1672   6368

Nov 04 20:00 UTC:   1674   6368

Nov 04 20:30 UTC:   1680   6370

Nov 04 21:00 UTC:   1681   6373

Nov 04 21:30 UTC:   1684   6377

Nov 04 22:00 UTC:   1688   6380

Nov 04 22:30 UTC:   1697   6381

Nov 04 23:00 UTC:   1703   6381

Nov 04 23:30 UTC:   1708   6382

Nov 05 00:00 UTC:   1715   6384

Nov 05 00:30 UTC:   1717   6384

Nov 05 01:00 UTC:   1718   6385

Nov 05 01:30 UTC:   1726   6387

Nov 05 02:00 UTC:   1729   6387

Nov 05 02:30 UTC:   1730   6387

Nov 05 03:00 UTC:   1732   6389

Nov 05 03:30 UTC:   1733   6389

Nov 05 04:00 UTC:   1734   6390

Nov 05 04:30 UTC:   1736   6391

Nov 05 05:00 UTC:   1736   6391

Nov 05 05:30 UTC:   1738   6391

Nov 05 06:00 UTC:   1738   6393

Nov 05 06:30 UTC:   1738   6393

Nov 05 07:00 UTC:   1739   6393

Nov 05 07:30 UTC:   1740   6394

Nov 05 08:00 UTC:   1740   6394

Nov 05 08:30 UTC:   1742   6394

Nov 05 09:00 UTC:   1743   6394

Nov 05 09:30 UTC:   1747   6397

Nov 05 10:00 UTC:   1752   6398

Nov 05 10:30 UTC:   1756   6401

Nov 05 11:00 UTC:   1760   6403

Nov 05 11:30 UTC:   1765   6404

Nov 05 12:00 UTC:   1768   6405

Nov 05 12:30 UTC:   1770   6406

Nov 05 13:00 UTC:   1775   6408

Nov 05 13:30 UTC:   1779   6411

Nov 05 14:00 UTC:   1783   6414

Nov 05 14:30 UTC:   1790   6414

Nov 05 15:00 UTC:   1796   6415

Nov 05 15:30 UTC:   1799   6417

Nov 05 16:00 UTC:   1805   6417

Nov 05 16:30 UTC:   1809   6419

Nov 05 17:00 UTC:   1814   6423

Nov 05 17:30 UTC:   1818   6424

Nov 05 18:00 UTC:   1821   6425

Nov 05 18:30 UTC:   1825   6427

Nov 05 19:00 UTC:   1828   6429

Nov 05 19:30 UTC:   1835   6430

Nov 05 20:00 UTC:   1838   6431

Nov 05 20:30 UTC:   1846   6433

Nov 05 21:00 UTC:   1849   6434

Nov 05 21:30 UTC:   1851   6435

Nov 05 22:00 UTC:   1854   6435

Nov 05 22:30 UTC:   1858   6436

Nov 05 23:00 UTC:   1865   6437

Nov 05 23:30 UTC:   1866   6438

Nov 06 00:00 UTC:   1870   6439

Nov 06 00:30 UTC:   1871   6439

Nov 06 01:00 UTC:   1871   6440

Nov 06 01:30 UTC:   1873   6440

Nov 06 02:00 UTC:   1874   6440

Nov 06 02:30 UTC:   1875   6441

Nov 06 03:00 UTC:   1877   6442

Nov 06 03:30 UTC:   1877   6442

Nov 06 04:00 UTC:   1878   6442

Nov 06 04:30 UTC:   1878   6442

Nov 06 05:00 UTC:   1878   6442

Nov 06 05:30 UTC:   1878   6442

Nov 06 06:00 UTC:   1878   6442

Nov 06 06:30 UTC:   1878   6442

Nov 06 07:00 UTC:   1878   6442

Nov 06 07:30 UTC:   1878   6443

Nov 06 08:00 UTC:   1880   6445

Nov 06 08:30 UTC:   1883   6446

Nov 06 09:00 UTC:   1885   6447

Nov 06 09:30 UTC:   1887   6452

Nov 06 10:00 UTC:   1890   6452

Nov 06 10:30 UTC:   1894   6452

Nov 06 11:00 UTC:   1899   6452

Nov 06 11:30 UTC:   1905   6456

Nov 06 12:00 UTC:   1916   6459

Nov 06 12:30 UTC:   1929   6459

Nov 06 13:00 UTC:   1941   6460

Nov 06 13:30 UTC:   1945   6461

Nov 06 14:00 UTC:   1967   6464

Nov 06 14:30 UTC:   1984   6466

Nov 06 15:00 UTC:   1999   6468

Nov 06 15:30 UTC:   2009   6468

Nov 06 16:00 UTC:   2019   6473

Nov 06 16:30 UTC:   2034   6476

Nov 06 17:30 UTC:   2060   6479

Nov 06 18:00 UTC:   2069   6480

Nov 06 18:30 UTC:   2082   6482

Nov 06 19:00 UTC:   2090   6482

Nov 06 19:30 UTC:   2097   6485

Nov 06 20:30 UTC:   2103   6486

Nov 06 21:00 UTC:   2108   6487

Nov 06 21:30 UTC:   2117   6488

Nov 06 22:00 UTC:   2123   6492

Nov 06 22:30 UTC:   2131   6493

Nov 06 23:00 UTC:   2137   6493

Nov 06 23:30 UTC:   2141   6497

Nov 07 00:00 UTC:   2142   6501

Nov 07 00:30 UTC:   2146   6501

Nov 07 01:00 UTC:   2148   6504

Nov 07 01:30 UTC:   2150   6505

Nov 07 02:00 UTC:   2151   6507

Nov 07 02:30 UTC:   2155   6508

Nov 07 03:00 UTC:   2157   6508

Nov 07 03:30 UTC:   2162   6509

Nov 07 04:00 UTC:   2164   6510

Nov 07 04:30 UTC:   2164   6511

Nov 07 05:00 UTC:   2165   6512

Nov 07 05:30 UTC:   2166   6514

Nov 07 06:00 UTC:   2166   6514

Nov 07 06:30 UTC:   2168   6514

Nov 07 07:00 UTC:   2168   6514

Nov 07 07:30 UTC:   2169   6514

Nov 07 08:00 UTC:   2172   6514

Nov 07 08:30 UTC:   2176   6515

Nov 07 09:00 UTC:   2177   6515

Nov 07 09:30 UTC:   2180   6516

Nov 07 10:00 UTC:   2183   6517

Nov 07 10:30 UTC:   2189   6519

Nov 07 11:00 UTC:   2196   6520

Nov 07 11:30 UTC:   2199   6521

Nov 07 12:00 UTC:   2202   6521

Nov 07 12:30 UTC:   2207   6522

Nov 07 13:00 UTC:   2209   6524

Nov 07 13:30 UTC:   2213   6524

Nov 07 14:00 UTC:   2217   6526

Nov 07 14:30 UTC:   2220   6527

Nov 07 15:00 UTC:   2224   6528

Nov 07 15:30 UTC:   2228   6533

Nov 07 16:00 UTC:   2233   6535

Nov 07 16:30 UTC:   2239   6536

Nov 07 17:00 UTC:   2242   6541

Nov 07 17:30 UTC:   2244   6542

Nov 07 18:00 UTC:   2249   6543

Nov 07 18:30 UTC:   2259   6546

Nov 07 19:00 UTC:   2262   6546

Nov 07 19:30 UTC:   2268   6547

Nov 07 20:00 UTC:   2270   6550

Nov 07 20:30 UTC:   2273   6551

Nov 07 21:00 UTC:   2277   6552

Nov 07 21:30 UTC:   2280   6552

Nov 07 22:00 UTC:   2288   6555

Nov 07 22:30 UTC:   2293   6556

Nov 07 23:00 UTC:   2294   6556

Nov 07 23:30 UTC:   2301   6556

Nov 08 00:00 UTC:   2304   6556

Nov 08 00:30 UTC:   2306   6556

Nov 08 01:00 UTC:   2306   6557

Nov 08 01:30 UTC:   2307   6558

Nov 08 02:00 UTC:   2309   6558

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Nov 22 13:30 UTC:   5071   7556

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Nov 22 17:30 UTC:   5087   7568

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Nov 24 07:00 UTC:   5188   7599

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Nov 24 22:30 UTC:   5222   7662

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Nov 24 23:30 UTC:   5226   7669

Nov 25 00:00 UTC:   5226   7671

Nov 25 00:30 UTC:   5227   7677

Nov 25 01:00 UTC:   5227   7680

Nov 25 01:30 UTC:   5227   7681

Nov 25 02:00 UTC:   5227   7682

Nov 25 02:30 UTC:   5227   7682

Nov 25 03:00 UTC:   5227   7685

Nov 25 03:30 UTC:   5227   7686

Nov 25 04:00 UTC:   5227   7687

Nov 25 04:30 UTC:   5227   7689

Nov 25 05:00 UTC:   5227   7690

Nov 25 05:30 UTC:   5227   7693

Nov 25 06:00 UTC:   5227   7696

Nov 25 06:30 UTC:   5227   7697

Nov 25 07:00 UTC:   5227   7697

Nov 25 07:30 UTC:   5227   7698

Nov 25 08:00 UTC:   5227   7700

Nov 25 08:30 UTC:   5227   7701

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Nov 25 10:00 UTC:   5229   7702

Nov 25 10:30 UTC:   5231   7702

Nov 25 11:00 UTC:   5233   7702

Nov 25 11:30 UTC:   5235   7703

Nov 25 12:00 UTC:   5236   7706

Nov 25 12:30 UTC:   5237   7706

Nov 25 13:00 UTC:   5239   7708

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Nov 25 14:00 UTC:   5241   7711

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Nov 25 15:00 UTC:   5243   7715

Nov 25 15:30 UTC:   5244   7717

Nov 25 16:00 UTC:   5244   7718

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Nov 25 17:00 UTC:   5247   7720

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Nov 25 18:00 UTC:   5248   7720

Nov 25 18:30 UTC:   5248   7722

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Nov 25 19:30 UTC:   5251   7725

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Nov 25 21:00 UTC:   5255   7728

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Nov 25 22:30 UTC:   5259   7733

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Nov 25 23:30 UTC:   5263   7735

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Nov 26 01:00 UTC:   5270   7738

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Nov 26 08:30 UTC:   5274   7741

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Nov 26 09:30 UTC:   5279   7741

Nov 26 10:00 UTC:   5280   7741

Nov 26 10:30 UTC:   5281   7741

Nov 26 11:00 UTC:   5282   7742

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Nov 26 14:30 UTC:   5293   7749

Nov 26 15:00 UTC:   5293   7751

Nov 26 15:30 UTC:   5295   7754

Nov 26 16:00 UTC:   5295   7755

Nov 26 16:30 UTC:   5298   7755

Nov 26 17:00 UTC:   5299   7757

Nov 26 17:30 UTC:   5300   7758

Nov 26 18:00 UTC:   5303   7761

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Nov 26 19:00 UTC:   5308   7765

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Nov 26 20:00 UTC:   5312   7766

Nov 26 20:30 UTC:   5315   7766

Nov 26 21:00 UTC:   5316   7767

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Nov 26 22:30 UTC:   5319   7768

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Nov 26 23:30 UTC:   5320   7768

Nov 27 00:00 UTC:   5321   7769

Nov 27 00:30 UTC:   5321   7769

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Nov 27 08:00 UTC:   5325   7774

Nov 27 08:30 UTC:   5325   7775

Nov 27 09:00 UTC:   5327   7779

Nov 27 09:30 UTC:   5327   7781

Nov 27 10:00 UTC:   5327   7784

Nov 27 10:30 UTC:   5328   7787

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Nov 27 11:30 UTC:   5332   7789

Nov 27 12:00 UTC:   5333   7790

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Nov 28 11:30 UTC:   5364   7832

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Nov 28 19:30 UTC:   5377   7868

Nov 28 20:00 UTC:   5380   7869

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Nov 30 06:00 UTC:   5800   8454

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105 thoughts on “Data adjustments in the UK Science Museum "Prove It!" poll on climate

  1. A sudden jump of approximately 2000 votes on Nov 12, from 5224 to 7233. Most interesting….
    Nov 12 14:00 UTC: 2983 5221
    Nov 12 14:30 UTC: 2986 5223
    Nov 12 15:00 UTC: 2987 5223
    Nov 12 15:30 UTC: 2989 5224
    Nov 12 16:00 UTC: 4439 7233
    Nov 12 16:30 UTC: 4442 7234
    Nov 12 17:00 UTC: 4443 7235
    Nov 12 17:30 UTC: 4443 7235

  2. To be fair, the “.org.uk” domain is a bit of a giveaway as to its location.
    All that aside, this should be referred to as a “value-added” poll… 😉

  3. Something is going on here. The ratio of yes vs no changes far too much over a month. The beginning ratio with 6000 votes in 7:1 against yet it ends 1.2:1 with under 3X the original votes.
    Count me as a denier on this.

  4. Quick, hide the decline.
    Oops .. they must have seen the email, erase our fuzzy math
    Or the simple explaination, remove Auto-generated votes, or spam votes from the same IP address. So the raw data shows votes going one way, but once you remove the noise of scripts (1,000 votes in less than 1 hour from the same IP), the unique IP votes show it differently. They should explain the voting science, and show the raw data with it. Sunlight is a good disinefectant

  5. Nov 12 10:00 UTC: 2959 6703
    Nov 12 10:30 UTC: 2961 6703
    Nov 12 11:00 UTC: 2968 6703
    Nov 12 11:30 UTC: 2972 5217
    Nov 12 12:00 UTC: 2974 5218
    Nov 12 12:30 UTC: 2979 5220

    Nov. 12 … count me out lost 1,500 votes…WUWT?

    Nov 12 14:30 UTC: 2986 5223
    Nov 12 15:00 UTC: 2987 5223
    Nov 12 15:30 UTC: 2989 5224
    Nov 12 16:00 UTC: 4439 7233
    Nov 12 16:30 UTC: 4442 7234
    Nov 12 17:00 UTC: 4443 7235

    then both sides of the poll make a large jump later in the day.
    I’m sure the poll wasn’t following measured results, and a fudge factor had to be applied.

  6. Interesting to see the results on the Science Museum website.
    The final result is actually misleading even if a true record since it is a combination of the votes received in the museum and the votes on the website.
    We may assume, I guess (correct me if I am wrong) that the science museum’s brief was to promote AGW inline with the UK government’s own position.
    That means that visitors to the museum will have been subjected to a barrage of pro-AGW propaganda from beginning to end of their tour without a balanced view.
    That so many managed to resist and voted out is a surprise. I imagine they are also the type of people who haven’t had unwanted double glazing, or conservatories they neither want nor can afford.
    The internet poll is presumably fairly representative of both Warmists and Deniers equally keen to present their vote but without the brainwashing.
    I suspect the internet votes are more representative of the population at large and thus a damning measure of the warmist’s case.
    It would be nice to see a newspaper poll conducted amongst those who have niether visited the science museum nor have internet access. I’d guess the results might come mid way between the two polls. That is simply because despite the common agenda of mainstream media and the Sceince Museum, the SM’s intensive course of propaganda would have been all in one mind numbing sessions of images of drowning polar bears, melting ciecaps and Gore style graphics. The less continuous and less intensive media coverage, even with Pravda’s use of “due to climate change” comment about everything under the sun (Pravda+ BBC) probably allows many people sufficient pasue for thought to recognise a con job when they see one.
    Maybe the Science Museum poll of visitors needed a 14 day cooling off period just as buying from uninvited home calling salesmen does.

  7. Climategate has been raised in the EU parliament. Dutch economist Hans Labohm told a hearing that “climate change has always been with us and always will be”.
    A member of the influential IPCC, Labohm said, “We are told that temperatures and sea levels are rising and the polar caps are melting. That is the bad news. The good news is that none of it is true.”
    http://www.theparliament.com/no_cache/latestnews/news-article/newsarticle/eu-hearing-told-climate-change-claims-are-exaggerated/
    H/T to http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/

  8. After decades of a snowballing lack of any consequences for malfeasance , officials everywhere have become emboldened to a point where they are undeterred by either law, conscience or worry.
    Here in Oregon there is an epidemic of public deceit, misrepresentation, misappropriation and corrupting of policy making in every arena. Ulterior motives, false pretenses, conflicts of interests, self promotion, self preservation and obscured fringe agendas run everything.
    Nearly all of which seems to be advocated as for our own good.
    It’s quite disturbing.
    This makes their exposure in this ultra-revealing exploding of the AGW movement about the only sign of hope.

  9. The 1486 vote decline in the OUT column on Nov-12 11:30 looks suspiciously similar to the 1450 vote gain for the IN column on Nov-12 15:30.
    It appears that this data has also been “adjusted”. Looks like they “inadvertently” removed votes then “corrected” the problem some 4 hrs later but “accidently” added the removed votes back to both OUTs and INs.
    Given the UEA flap, one would hope that they aren’t going to dither with the FOI request….

  10. They took away from the “I’m out” and added to the “I’m in” group.
    ………………………… –in- .. -out-
    Nov 12 10:00 UTC: 2959 6703
    Nov 12 10:30 UTC: 2961 6703
    Nov 12 11:00 UTC: 2968 6703
    Nov 12 11:30 UTC: 2972 5217 … << take away 1486 from "out"
    Nov 12 12:00 UTC: 2974 5218
    Nov 12 12:30 UTC: 2979 5220
    Nov 12 13:00 UTC: 2981 5220
    Nov 12 13:30 UTC: 2983 5221
    Nov 12 14:00 UTC: 2983 5221
    Nov 12 14:30 UTC: 2986 5223
    Nov 12 15:00 UTC: 2987 5223
    Nov 12 15:30 UTC: 2989 5224
    Nov 12 16:00 UTC: 4439 7233 … << add 1450 to "in"
    Nov 12 16:30 UTC: 4442 7234
    Nov 12 17:00 UTC: 4443 7235
    Nov 12 17:30 UTC: 4443 7235
    WUWT ?
    .

  11. posted too quick…
    Nov 12 15:30 UTC: 2989 5224
    Nov 12 16:00 UTC: 4439 7233 … << add 1450 to "in" and…
    … added 2009 to the "out"

  12. Well well, yet another once venerable institution seems to have let itself down and perhaps they need someone who really understand science to direct it. I don’t think the current incumbent is up to the job.
    I’m shocked at how many institutions have prostituted their principle to keep the money coming in from politicians and the bankers and industrialists with ‘old’ money who are their ultimate masters.
    We need to take action to get rid of the lot of them and have a fresh start. Civil disobedience anyone? We are many and they are few,

  13. This was just a proxy reading. The authoritative source is the Pew poll from 2007 and was used to smooth the proxy poll and get it to display a “correct” result since it was obviously flawed due to unknown variables. This divergence is a recent phenomenon and should be excluded from the resulting product to avoid giving the wrong impression to readers unfamiliar with decreasing alarmist-sensitivity among the general public

  14. Anthony
    Many thanks to Ric for his efforts. I shall let you know when I get a response to my FOI request.
    Regards

  15. Just an aside: Last week “climategate” surpassed “global warming” searches in Google; I just checked and it is very, very close to surpassing “climate change” searches too (21,200,000 vs 21,400,00).

  16. Is the jump not explained by, the results explaining that there was a web vote and also a vote in the museum exhibit also. I’d guess then, that the jump is when the museum vote was added onto the web vote and then kept in sync afterwards. This agrees pretty well 3428/626 in/out numbers provided in the result. From the adjustments they made to verify emails at least it looks to me they’ve made quite a good effort to make this a fair vote.

  17. Anthony and all interested.
    Please be cautious with these polls. There is no doubt that a lot of readers have made wattsupwiththat.com a place where they can come and get updates. If readers here are like me, I refresh the site many times a day and also visit climateaudit or the mirror site and enjoy reading Andrew Bolt’s blog on the political goings on down in Australia. I share the following with you because I have seen it before.
    Anthony, the powers that be do not like the fact that your readers are here. Since it will be too obvious to crash the site etc. what you will experience will first come in the form of soft attacks like the polls taking place or even some ‘news’ outlets now starting to cover the story. The mouth pieces for the corporations have already shown their disdain for truth. But rest assured, they know the readers want more and they are counting on the fact that people want to have their voices heard. In this light, please stay on message on focused. They are drewling to distract again with useless polls – we all know that does not mean a damn thing.
    Please don’t fall for the garbage of scientific or political polls. I have seen first hand how they use that as a method to distract and split readers away. They play these tricks and it does not matter how many times you vote or even track the stats for what is happening currently, THEY ARE NOT INTERESTED IN ACCURACY OR TRUTH. The only game in town now is to distract, discourage and relentless attack. That is why I am writing you this. Naturally, I do not believe in censorship or in controlling anything. The free market principle is best and thinking people can better judge for themselves what is good and what is not. Just be aware of distractions such as polls or even Al Gore suddenly wanting to debate Dr. Tim Ball or any of the other truly trusted scientists. These people want ligitimacy and they want the readers to acknowledge both their presence and relevance in any quantity they can get. That is why it is important for them to be either political figures or reporters or even questionable experts. All they are seeking first and foremost is to be ackowledged and that they are present. We grant them that when we participate in their stupid opinion polls, reading their half hearted attempts and mending relationships or should they even get to the point of apologizing for small things or wanting to suddenly correct little problems. They want to be legitimate and they need an audience for that.
    So please know that they are not suddenly interested in wanting to hear from you or me. The polls are a stupid game to them. Next they will have their mouth pieces throw out a few bones and we will again be left angry that they did not cover all the facts. Case in point, a few ‘bad eggs’ will get punished or fired. That is not what is at stake and we all know that. It is not the bad eggs that want to tax the hell out of people for simply being alive.
    I conclude with this, they are not the enemy. They simply want to be ligitimate in anyway they can get there. If people start choosing to ignore them, they won’t have an audience to do their bidding. You guys have already shown them to be exactly what they are. It will be hard not to fight them at every chance you get. They are counting on the human condition to want to fight and point out the truth. Think about it. If nobody shows up even to fight them, who will they prove themselves to? Let them go the way of the Dodo and keep educating me and others about climate science, scientific methods and the other great people that have been so brave over the years both within and outside the scientific community.
    I am just one grateful reader in the crowd and my thoughts and prayers are with you all. Keep up the great work!

  18. Given the discontinuities, I suspect that somebody has been periodically adding in the votes of the visitors to the online survey. Even so the numbers are embarrassing.
    Of course the BSM Director’s comments are a complete travesty – his dominant mindset is that skeptics are uninformed or misinformed and must be re-educated. He misperceives to whom the old saying “There are none so blind as those who will not see” actually applies.

  19. A sudden jump of approximately 2000 votes on Nov 12, from 5224 to 7233. Most interesting….
    Nov 12 14:00 UTC: 2983 5221
    Nov 12 14:30 UTC: 2986 5223
    Nov 12 15:00 UTC: 2987 5223
    Nov 12 15:30 UTC: 2989 5224
    Nov 12 16:00 UTC: 4439 7233
    Nov 12 16:30 UTC: 4442 7234
    Nov 12 17:00 UTC: 4443 7235
    Nov 12 17:30 UTC: 4443 7235
    And in 30 minutes too. Pretty odd that from 15:30 – 16:00 there were a total of 3,459 votes cast while the 30 minutes before there were 3 votes cast and the 30 minutes after there were 4 votes cast ! Lots of people busy clicking during ‘tea time’?.

  20. BBC is the first major news organization to tell the sheeple about the current solar minimum.
    “Sun light
    Another area on which new light has been cast since 2007 is a possible solar influence on climatic change – in particular, how much of the warming seen in the last few decades can be laid at the door of solar changes, and whether the decline in solar output in the last few years is related to the slowdown or halt – take your pick – in temperature rise.
    Humans blamed for climate change
    Mike Lockwood has just published a review paper in the Royal Society’s journal Proceedings A that collates the latest research.
    The Sun has calmed rapidly (by its own standards) since reaching what some physicists term a “grand maximum” of output in the second half of the 20th Century – the period during which scientists have been able to observe our star from space.
    “As it happens, the modern space age has seen an unusually high level of solar activity,” he says.
    “But now we’re back to a level last seen in about 1924.”
    If the Sun was the dominant influence on modern-day temperature change, as some assert, then why has the Earth not returned to temperatures of the 1920s – which would have entailed a cooling of about 0.6C over the last couple of decades? ”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8389706.stm

  21. When I left home for work (late again, curse you WUWT), I hadn’t received a reply from Andrew Marcus. That was around 1400 Museum time. Mike Post may be amending his FOI request (or creating a new one), I’m sure we’ll exchange some notes about what to include.
    One thing the museum hasn’t mentioned is whether or not the results have been passed to the Copenhagen contingent, I’ve only seen notes like “More work needs to be done to convince people of the reality of human-induced climate change and of the urgency with which we must agree an international solution.
    That was not what the poll was advertised to determine, and it was certainly not worth adding my Email address to. If the results have not been passed on I think we should rather annoyed, certainly much more so than faulty math or transcription and the other stuff that has made this poll “For entertainment purposes only.”
    By the way, my data logging almost didn’t happen. I tried to resist the urge to write the program, but gave in after a couple days. Many thanks again to David (and his gold winners cup). I’m sure the Museum would have preferred I had dones something more useful. 🙂

  22. Interesting poll! As you might imagine, some people have been watching the count. http://wermenh.com/proveit.html shows details of the vote count.
    I wonder what went on Nov 12th. First, about 1500 votes disappear from ‘out’ between 11 and 11:30, then, then between 3:30 and 4, about 1450 votes are added to ‘in’ and 2000 added to ‘out’.
    Nov 12 10:30 UTC: 2961 6703
    Nov 12 11:00 UTC: 2968 6703
    Nov 12 11:30 UTC: 2972 5217
    Nov 12 12:00 UTC: 2974 5218
    Nov 12 12:30 UTC: 2979 5220
    Nov 12 13:00 UTC: 2981 5220
    Nov 12 13:30 UTC: 2983 5221
    Nov 12 14:00 UTC: 2983 5221
    Nov 12 14:30 UTC: 2986 5223
    Nov 12 15:00 UTC: 2987 5223
    Nov 12 15:30 UTC: 2989 5224
    Nov 12 16:00 UTC: 4439 7233
    Nov 12 16:30 UTC: 4442 7234
    I trust there is a good explanation for this, and the UK Science Museum will no doubt take the lead in transparency by explaining the strange happenings that occurred on Nov 12th.
    I sent this comment to the Science Museum. Let’s hope for a reasonable explanation.

  23. Like I’d said before…the influx of kids on school trips could provide a huge boost..I don’t see where the polling is voting-age limited…?
    I’d really hate to learn that global financial policy was being driven by a bunch of 4th graders being told that they couldn’t get on the bus to go home until they’d voted to be “In”.
    Looking at the trends on weekends at the physical museum looks interesting too.

  24. I don’t know if anyone else has mentioned this, but it’s possible the poll wasn’t very clever and originally counted duplicate IP’s. It could therefore have easily been adjusted by deleting duplicates, ie. cross referencing votes against the server logs.
    However, given the warmists love to fiddle with data, I wouldn’t bet my house on it.

  25. looks to me as if they’ve added the in-situ data to the online data intermitently through the process, resulting in ‘jumps’.
    looks also as if they entered the data incorrectly and had to go back and ‘fix’ it? Nothing new to the climate ‘science’ industry.
    Finally; this is a really simple study in peer pressure; how people voted annonymously online differed significantly from how they voted in a peer feedback situation. Not too hard to understand considering that the ‘Science’ Museum get’s to choose the information available to you at the time of your vote. i.e. they directed which side the ‘peer’ feedback would take, simply by putting the poll in their context.
    Sadly; useless information in the guise of pertinent data.
    Much like Briffa’s tree rings, anything EAU has (or claims to have had in the past or claims was eaten by the dog), Phil Jone’s Doctorate, Mann’s hockey stick, etc.

  26. Could someone please post a correct graph please.
    You would think that they (the pro agw) would have learned the lesson, considering what have transpired during the last days.
    Any fraud will be found out eventually.

  27. If the science museum was smart here should be their response to the foi request.
    Ya here’s the data, with out the email address, because we don’t want anyone to get spammed, but lets be honest most the emails are all fake because after all it was just a WEB POLL. One of the guys here thought it would be a cool idea, but we all lost interest in a couple weeks because its just a stupid WEB POLL. Ya you might notice there’s a big jump in the middle because the server crashed and we lost the count, and ya well could have recounted all our submitters but we just guessed instead, because we stopped caring by this point and it’s just a lame WEB POLL. Hey While you are looking at the data could you pull all the duplicates, remove all the princess diana, zort, and the bite my butt submitters to and pass back the corrected and summarized data in a report form. I tried to get one of our student volunteers at the museum to do it, but he told me it was just a stupid WEB POLL and gave me the finger and told me not to waste this time, while I agreed with him, the flipping the bird seemed a tad unnecessary?
    But hey go to town, I can’t promise anyone will read it. Lets be honest these polls are a dime a dozen, and even if it was 90% pro AGW it would have gotten one 2 min spot on the local news IF it was a slow new day.
    Enjoy!
    Sincerely
    The guy who afternoon was killed dealing with this sillyness.

  28. I think the most obvious way to calculate global warming has to be the invention of the time machine. Lets redirect funds away from climate-change into time machine-anomics and then we can go back and see what’s going on. If it’s happening, then we’ll stay back there and fix all the problems before they start. It seems so simple really I can’t think why it’s not been suggested before!
    Feargy
    http://anactorslife.wordpress.com

  29. Meh. I think skeptics and conservatives are the only ones bound by legitimacy when polling. Obama’s at 50 %! Right…

  30. The IPCC and Climate Science chose to get into bed with politicians, environmental campaigners, and the media. These are not people I instinctively trust, with good reason.
    It is now hard to distinguish a valid scientific theory from propaganda that supports a environmental or political objective, all parties espouse the “facts”.
    I will give you a small example:
    On the 24th November the British Met office issued a joint press statement on Climate Science ( I wonder why?) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091124a.html
    Authors were those of the highest reputation:-
    Prof. Julia Slingo, Chief Scientist, Met Office
    Prof. Alan Thorpe, Chief Executive, Natural Environment Research Council
    Lord Rees, President, the Royal Society
    This statement included the following passage:-
    “Year-on-year the evidence is growing that damaging climate and weather events — potentially intensified by global warming — are already happening and beginning to affect society and ecosystems. This includes:
    In the UK, heavier daily rainfall leading to local flooding such as in the summer of 2007.”
    Anybody reading this passage is left with the strong impression that the floods of 2007 were caused by Climate Change. But as I was unlucky enough to be directly involved in the Avon/Severn flooding I did keep up to date with any science reporting of the likely cause.
    However the only authoritative scientific analysis produced on the 2007 floods was produced by CEH a part of Prof. Alan Thorpe’s National Environmental Research Council.
    http://www.ceh.ac.uk/news/news_archive/2008_news_item_05.html
    And I quote from this report:
    Lead author, Terry Marsh, comments: “The river floods of summer 2007 were a very singular episode, which does not form part of any clear historical trend or show consistency with currently favoured climate change scenarios.”
    Mr Marsh adds: “The exceptional river flooding last summer fuelled speculation that flood risk is increasing due to global warming. Due to the inherent variability of the UK climate, any extreme hydrological event cannot readily be linked directly to climate change.”
    So what do I make of all of that, why did these esteemed people feel they have to rush out statements that don’t bear up to even the simplest critical examination.
    They are not fools, so why do it? What is possessing them? I can only conclude they are supporting a political belief not science.

  31. I’ve collected a data set which has a greater resolution, and also started the collecting a bit earlier. Invidual votes can be seen from this data.
    Here is the link for the data and a couple of images I have plotted from them:
    http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=713d0b19b151d2761bee9a6e9edd9c76f6b375b578b2c011d9ecd7d091ba63d2
    There are some holes in the data which was due to the computer which collected the data had to be restarted occasionally. The holes can be of course filled with Werme’s data to make a more complete data set.
    Something that could be interesting is if someone would calculate the rate of change in the votes.
    -Lihard

  32. It is possible to ‘game’ these polls.
    My dog was in a contest once with online voting, and our IT guy showed me how I could set up a macro to vote 100 of times per minute (or more). I of course did not take him up on that.
    And my dog lost.

  33. Michael (11:01:45) :
    If the Sun was the dominant influence on modern-day temperature change, as some assert, then why has the Earth not returned to temperatures of the 1920s – which would have entailed a cooling of about 0.6C over the last couple of decades? ”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8389706.stm
    I’d say that if you look at rural stations, not urban ones, you might find your postulate to be true?

  34. I just saw a similar “event” happening here in the Netherlands.
    At http://www.klimaatbelofte.nl (Climate Promise.nl) a regular guest of the dutch version of WUWT, Klimatosoof (www.klimatosoof.nl), collected the daily count of “promises”. Just look at the numbers:
    Datum (Date) Aantal ondertekenaars (Number of signatures)
    19-10-2009 3988
    21-10-2009 4015
    22-10-2009 4036
    23-10-2009 4040
    26-10-2009 4086
    28-10-2009 4108
    29-10-2009 4135
    01-11-2009 4189
    03-11-2009 4206
    06-11-2009 4250
    09-11-2009 4304
    10-11-2009 4324
    12-11-2009 7917
    13-11-2009 7924
    14-11-2009 7929
    16-11-2009 7978
    17-11-2009 8283
    18-11-2009 8380
    20-11-2009 8646
    22-11-2009 8783
    24-11-2009 9315
    30-11-2009 9898
    01-12-2009 22060
    Note the spike at November 12 and the doubling(+) yesterday.
    A true hockeystick 🙂

  35. Michael Mann has a report on accuweather where he says climategate is an attack on man made global warming and that people are trying to use this to settle a score.I thought they wanted to stop global warming.??That’s all we’ve heard for years we must stop global warming.Now it looks as if they don’t want to stop it or maybe it was all a lie to begin with.

  36. Wait a minute.
    “Like I’d said before…the influx of kids on school trips could provide a huge boost..I don’t see where the polling is voting-age limited…?”
    Yeah, but a huge boost in voting on the ‘in’ side can’t cause negative votes on the ‘out’ side!

  37. Dr Mann and his bunch need to consider the impact of their own behavior.
    If they believe the issue is real and the numbers prove them out, why the cloak-and-dagger and schoolyard hide-the-ball games?
    In the end, they’ll have lost the support they needed to make their case by their actions.

  38. I sent an email to the CBC a couple of weeks ago because they did a show that was very bias where they asked easy nice questions to James Hoggan (AGW alarmist) and were very critical and tough on Lawrence Soloman (Skeptic).. here was their reply:
    Thank you for your e-mail of November 21 addressed to Vince Carlin, CBC Ombudsman. As you know, Mr. Carlin asked me to reply.
    You wrote to draw our attention to the November 19 edition of THE CURRENT and interviews with three people concerning climate change. You suggested program host Anna Maria Tremonti displayed her own bias on the subject by being “nice, cuddly, happy” with one interviewee and making “personal and ad hominem attacks” on the other.
    Let me begin by saying that I sincerely regret that you are disappointed in CBC. I can assure you that the CBC prides itself on the excellence of its journalism. We take very seriously any assertion that our journalism is inaccurate, biassed or unfair, or in any way fails to meet the rigorous criteria set out in the CBC’s Journalistic Standards and Practices. Where criticisms are justified, we take immediate corrective action.
    However, in this case – and I say this with respect – your views are not ones I share. Allow me to explain why.
    To be clear, the interviews are not as parallel as you suggest. If they had been of the on-the-one-hand, on-the-other-hand sort with a proponent of anthropomorphic climate change, say, and a skeptic, you would be right to expect them to be done in an even-handed fashion, with the interviewer no tougher (or easier) on one than the other.
    But that was not the situation here. Although all three interviews concerned the same broad topic, they focussed on rather different aspects of it. As you may know, public relations executive James Hoggan is the author of the just recently published book, Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming. The book examines those organizations and scientists who question the scientific consensus that green house gases trapped in the atmosphere are major contributors to global warming. In what he readily admits are shocking conclusions, he discredits them, in some cases traces their funding to the fossil-fuel industry and argues their goal is to deceive and confuse the public as part of an effort to slow any government action to redress the problem.
    We have heard a number of climate skeptics on THE CURRENT over the years, but here is an expert in the skills of public relations who argues they often are not what they seem. Rather, he said, they are part of a deliberate plan to hoodwink the public. So listeners could better evaluate his views, the introduction to the story made it clear that, aside from his public relations business, Mr. Hoggan is also the chairman of the David Suzuki Foundation.
    There is no doubt it is a provocative view. Ms. Tremonti set out in the interview to explore it and encourage Mr. Hoggan to explain it to the program’s listeners. She asked about its scope, who was sponsoring it, how it worked, why a public relations campaign against the prevailing view was needed and who would benefit. All good questions intended to draw out the story.
    Of course, she challenged him, too, to be more specific, to clarify what he said, to give her examples. She challenged him in more fundamental ways as well. Although he was dismissive of them, she pointed out it is often the dissenters who push science forward. And, she asked, since he was a public relations expert, if he was trying to spin her.
    One of the book’s core assertions is that few accredited scientists dissent from the consensus view that climate change is dangerous and largely the result of human activity. Is there any corroboration? We briefly put that question to a University of Toronto expert who keeps an elaborate data base of climate scientists, how and where they publish and the nature of their research. His conclusion: of the 601 scientists who have published more than 100 peer-reviewed articles on climate change, 14 could be classed as skeptical.
    Finally, we asked a prominent climate change skeptic to respond to Mr. Hoggan’s allegations. Lawrence Solomon is one of the country’s best known skeptics, articulate and knowledgeable, the author of The Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists who stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persuasion, and Fraud – and those who are too fearful to do so, Executive Director of Energy Probe and a regular National Post columnist. We asked him to listen in while Ms. Tremonti talked with Mr. Hoggan.
    It was Ms. Tremonti’s intention to take some of Mr. Hoggan’s key assertions and put them to Mr. Solomon, asking for his response. Of course, he has his own strong views on the subject. While Ms. Tremonti was looking for a rather more specific response, Mr. Solomon seemed to want to make a broader critique of Mr. Hoggan’s views. Ms. Tremonti is a tenacious interviewer (as Mr. Solomon acknowledged in his column), so part of what you heard may have been a note of frustration from both.
    But more importantly, Ms. Tremonti or any other CBC journalist would fail in her responsibility if she simply offered Mr. Solomon – or Mr. Hoggan, for that matter – a platform to express his views. Of course, she encouraged Mr. Solomon to explain his response. (Indeed, his first answer was a minute and a half long, lengthy by radio interview standards). But it is also an interviewer’s responsibility to seek clarification, to question assumptions, to test the views expressed, point out there are other views, even challenge them on occasion, and that is what Ms. Tremonti did. That is part of the give and take of an interview. Although, I fully appreciate that a journalist who persists in an interview – especially on a subject that inspires the kind of spirited debate this one does – may be seen as “tough,” arrogant or disrespectful when that is certainly not the intention.
    In a related matter, Mr. Solomon wrote in his National Post column (November 21) that Ms. Tremonti was rude and treated him discourteously after the broadcast interview. I have spoken to her and that was certainly not her intention. In fact, those in the studio at the time tell me that while they briefly continued their discussion, it could scarcely be considered discourteous. Nevertheless, I sincerely regret that Mr. Solomon feels he was not respectfully treated.
    Thank you again for your e-mail, I hope my reply has reassured you of the continuing integrity of our program and our news service.
    It is also my responsibility to inform you that if you are not satisfied with this response, you may wish to submit the matter for review by Vince Carlin, CBC Ombudsman. The Office of the Ombudsman, an independent and impartial body reporting directly to the President, is responsible for evaluating program compliance with the CBC’s journalistic policies. Mr. Carlin may be reached by mail at the address shown below, or by fax at (416) 205-2825, or by e-mail at ombudsman@cbc.ca
    Sincerely,
    Pam Bertrand
    Executive Producer
    THE CURRENT
    Box 500, Station “A”,
    Toronto, Ontario
    M5W 1E6
    —-
    And my tax dollars go to fund this organization.

  39. I suspect that the FOIA will show that the Science Museum hired the Iranian Revolution Guard to run the poll has they were both cheap and had recent experience conducting a major, blemish-free, election.
    I thought satire ended when Kissinger got the Nobel Peace Prize.

  40. Looks like not only Jones learned how to do the Mann “trick” to “Hide the Decline”. Someone at the UK Science Museum has been learning too.

  41. … or not. From the SM website:
    5984 individual votes were cast: 764 to counted in and 5220 to counted out. (Correct as at 16.20 Wednesday 28 October)

  42. This could be another example of the divergence problem.
    That is – the actual results diverge from the ‘hoped for’ results.

  43. Maybe they adjusted the raw data to allow for a little forcing due to the atmosphere in the science museum

  44. JMANON (09:58:01) :
    ‘We may assume, I guess (correct me if I am wrong) that the science museum’s brief was to promote AGW inline with the UK government’s own position.’
    But very quite definitely! Have a look at the climate change section of their website. All very alarmism and, shall we say, doubtful settled science

  45. “If the Sun was the dominant influence on modern-day temperature change, as some assert, then why has the Earth not returned to temperatures of the 1920s – which would have entailed a cooling of about 0.6C over the last couple of decades? ””
    It is not solar activity per se that determines the climate here. The solar cycle period as well as the intensity of sunspots appear to be important. More specifically, the solar wind appears to control the cosmic wind’s influence. Hot solar wind heats the upper atmosphere and evaporates the upper level clouds – we warm. When the solar wind is light, neutrons of the cosmic wind cause cloud formation – we cool. Currently the solar wind has been quite light.
    Add to the mix a cyclic pattern of heat release and absorption by the PDO and NAO and we have periods where they complement or cancel each other. Thus, we have ups and downs that also go up and down.
    The bottom line is that when the data and historical ranges are honestly examined, our current climate is entirely within range and nothing is happening out of the ordinary.

  46. helvio (10:43:25) :
    Just an aside: Last week “climategate” surpassed “global warming” searches in Google; I just checked and it is very, very close to surpassing “climate change” searches too (21,200,000 vs 21,400,00).

    21,300,000 now. (about 3 hours later). I wonder how google estimates these numbers, they can’t rescan the web that fast can they? Or are they picking up new pages somehow?

  47. Indiana Bones (11:22:57) :
    Here’s the Daily Express HEADLINE!! – worth the price of admission to Watts Up… The Movie:
    http://www.express.co.uk/ourpaper/view/2009-12-02
    PLEASE, PLEASE British brethren – someone scan a copy of this front page in high resolution (full page print) for posterity, screen savers and fridge posting!! And post a link. Thanks!
    Sorry I do not have a scanner. Never wanted one, could be tempted tomorrow.
    Indy just for you I bought the “Daily Express” today, I never buy London based newspapers. I do not buy newspapers, given up on London propaganda.
    The front page has a very short article -big head lines “The Big Climate Change ‘Fraud’ “.
    “The scientific consensus that mankind has caused climate change was rocked yesterday as a leading academic called it a “a load of hot air underpinned by fraud”.
    The article is referring to Professor Ian Plimer who “condemned the climate change lobby as “climate comrades” keeping the “gravy train” going”.
    He says “Governments were treating the public like “fools” and using climate change to increase taxes.”
    Spot on there. Spot on.
    I’m paying £1.10 per litre for petrol/gas.
    US gallon is 3.8 litre so £4.18 a gallon.
    (UK gallon is 4.5 l)
    £1 = $1.65
    Gives $6.897 per gallon, and most of it is TAX.
    He says that climate always changes.
    There is a a short comment about CRU appearing to massage data. No big deal.
    Page 4
    A nice picture of a polar bear and her two cubs.
    Ahhhhh…………….. Nice.
    I recognise the bear, yes and think I sponsored her last year through the WWF.
    I do hope I can sponsor another bear this year, but I have not seen any Christmas Adverts, yet there is still time.
    “The CRU also admitted to getting rid of its raw data which means that scientists cannot check subsequent research.”
    The Prof cites periods of warming -Roman, Middle Ages.
    Finishes with:
    “The climate change comrades want to keep the gravy train going. Governments are also keen on putting their hands as deep as possible into our pockets”
    Yes he is spot on again.
    Did I tell you how much I’m paying for petrol?
    Sorry about the moaning, but I’m paying for this madness and the BBC.

  48. Amazing how well the IN votes since about 8.00 on 27th November seem to track the OUT votes, only adjusted by what looks like a fairly simple scaling Al-Gore-ithm. (Sorry, couldn’t resist!)
    And what could have happened at about 4.30 on 30th November to cause such a shift in the IN/OUT relationship? Panicking that they might overshoot the “We have the consensus” date of sometime in the Copenhagen conference, maybe?
    S

  49. With regard to the graph, my first take (before looking closely) was that it was a stacked line graph (a horrible graphing technique IMO). On later examination it is apparent that the lines are not stacked.
    This illusion is created because of the infilling of colour under the lines and gives a visual bias for “count me in”. Might I suggest just using a standard line graph to avoid confusion?

  50. Interesting comment on BBC TV news last night. 51% of the poll did not accept AGW Apparently this is down to poor education and a misunderstanding of the facts! No doubt this will soon be sorted by the thought police who will whip the majority into line.

  51. Back to topic, late.
    I am not surprised that this poll had odd results. I went to vote “Count me Out”, on – I think – 28 October. I did not receive an e-mail immediately. I picked it up the next morning. it was timed 29OCT 09:27:53. When I clicked on the link, the first time there was a server failure. The second, I got a page which only offered me one choice, “Count me In”. Of course, I might have clicked on the wrong button first time round. But that’s not like me.
    I suspect there may have been a few software gremlins in that poll.

  52. A post I made earlier seems to have gone missing. The point was to highlight the possibility of double voting (especially by the in crowd), first at the gallery, presumably without revealing their e-mail address, and then again via e-mail when they got home.
    I am also highly amused at CBCs reply to Scott O (12:22:25) in which they refer to a”proponent of anthropomorphic climate change”.
    So there are people out there who espouse climate change in human form – I’m still trying to get my mind round this!

  53. The people have spoken. We want a strong, effective, UNfair deal in Copenhagen! Right?
    Nopenhagen!
    Best,
    Frank

  54. ” Neil (14:11:20) :
    Back to topic, late.
    I am not surprised that this poll had odd results. I went to vote “Count me Out”, on – I think – 28 October. I did not receive an e-mail immediately. I picked it up the next morning.”
    I voted ‘Count me out’ but didn’t receive an e-mail so have no idea which date it was. Thought nothing else of it as I’d had such fun engaging.

  55. Treating this in a similar manner to CRU makes it look more important than it is.
    And now we have adjustments to the snow totals at ski areas.
    http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/86576/
    All this does is make look like “well everybody does it and is no big deal” (like Clinton). On the radio news, ABC or AP not sure which, they mentioned climategate with no quote from anyone, and then the snow at ski areas “scandal” . The News media made it sound as if they were of the same magnitude.

  56. Jean (11:15:44) :
    Sorry to tell you that entry to the Science Museum is free, but they have hundreds of school parties daily, most of them indoctrinated by their teachers. I am surprised that the museum’s on-site poll did not show a much larger ‘Count me in’ vote. Perhaps the British public are sick to death of all the propaganda and can see how much it is going to cost them in green taxes.

  57. I just heard back from Andrew Marcus at the museum about the inconsistency in the counts, and have added this to my web pages:
    Dec 3: I heard back from the Science Museum about the bogus counts. Andrew Marcus said the poll was closed at 10.15 GMT, which would be a couple votes away from the time of my final tally. Marcus continued, “we audited our database of counts and found some duplicate votes. These were removed before the final results were published.” He didn’t say what date range the duplicates were found, indeed, they may have refined their algorithm (e.g. adding case insensitivity) and scanned the entire record. At any rate, that says the deleted votes were 1474 / 749.
    The major unresolved question is “Has this information been passed to the Copenhagen contingent and what was their response?” I’ll leave that to Mike Post to ferret out. In the meantime, one can imagine a Monty Python skit featuring Museum Director Prof. Rapley saying “In order to see you properly off to Copenhagen, the Museum ran a poll on the subject. The results were 6058 to 8238, jolly good show. A grateful nation eagerly awaits your return!”

  58. Re Ric’s above post, here below is my further FOI request to the Science Museum. The process is open and may be followed on the web at http://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/further_questions_about_the_prov
    3 December 2009
    Dear Sir or Madam,
    On 23rd November 2009 I submitted a request to the Science Museum
    summarised as: “Questions about the ‘Prove It’ poll”. For your
    convenience I include my original enquiry below.
    The poll has now closed. Could you please tell me:
    The precise time and date that the poll closed?
    The ‘in’ and ‘out’ counts at that moment on the website?
    The ‘in’ and ‘out’ counts at that moment from the exhibition?
    The precise adjustments that were made to the website scores after
    the closure of the poll?
    The reason for the adjustments?
    The precise adjustments that were made to the exhibition scores
    after the closure of the poll?
    The reason for the adjustments?
    To whom, if anyone, the Museum submitted the final scores and what
    was the response or were the responses?
    My original enquiry was:
    My request is in connection with the Science Museum’s ‘Prove It’
    poll. Can you please tell me:
    When the Museum decided to run the poll?
    Who was responsible for providing the ‘evidence’?
    When it was that it was realised that the pollsters had failed to
    implement the email confirmation security measure?
    Why on 12 November 2009, between 10.00 and 12.00 UTC, approximately
    1500 votes were deducted from the ‘out’ score?
    Why on 12 November 2009 between 14.00 and 16.00 UTC, approximately
    1500 votes were added to the ‘in’ vote and approximately 2000 votes
    were added to the ‘out’ vote?
    What instructions were given to Museum staff regarding the poll?
    What information the Museum circulated to schools and other
    educational institutions about the poll?
    When the Museum intends to complete the poll?
    What use the Museum intends to make of the poll?
    How much the poll has cost?
    Thank you in anticipation.
    Yours faithfully,
    Mike Post

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