The Australian ETS vote: a political litmus test for cap and trade

Many here in the USA got their first inkling of the extraordinary events going on in Australia with the vote that was supposed to happen in parliament on Friday over “ETS” or Emissions Trading Scheme, with this WUWT post:

Ripples of Climategate? Liberal MP’s desert Turnbull in Australia over emissions trading scheme

On Friday, 12 Liberal members of parliament resigned their frontbench positions rather than be forced into a party line vote for ETS. That is quite a statement. The MP’s are hearing from their constituents in large numbers. From ABC news in Australia, this snippet:

“The phone lines have been in meltdown with people saying that the Liberal Party would not be doing its job as an Opposition simply to pass this thing without the scrutiny that people calling my office think it demands,” he [MP Tony Abbott] said.

Here’s a YouTube video being circulated in Australia:

When I ran my story Ripples of Climategate? on Thursday, I suggested that Climategate was being heard by the people of Australia, but I got a number of comments from people in Australia who posted on WUWT saying that they aren’t hearing about it in the mainstream media there.

Andrew Bolt, columnist and blogger for the Herald Sun, answered my query today on what is happening with ETS as it relates to “Climategate”:

From: Bolt, Andrew

Sent: Friday, November 27, 2009 5:07 PM

To: Anthony Watts – mobile

Subject: RE: Climategate in Australia

Several MPs have indeed mentioned the emails in their party room speeches, and your correspondents miss the way MPs actually pick up things.

Yes, it’s true that the emails have not yet had quite the coverage they deserve. That said, my column appears in the biggest selling paper. My blog is the biggest political one in the country, and I suspect is read or at least occasionally checked by most Liberal MPs.

I’ve talked about Climategate on radio stations in four states, including the highest-rating AM shows in Sydney and Melbourne. Some talkback shows have flogged the issue, particularly in Brisbane and Sydney. Readers of the blog and other sources, or listeners to Sydney talkback in particular, have bombarded their MPs with emails mentioning it. I’ve debated it on the ABC (your BBC) on its flagship late-night political show, watched by many politicians.   And still that doesn’t cover it all.

Many MPs have been scared to challenge a “consensus”, fearing they may not just be outgunned but simply wrong. The emails give some extra confidence. I doubt more than a handful at best would not know of them, and no sceptic would not be emboldened by them.

In all this, however, many other factors are at play, including an assessment of the merits of the emissions trading bill, the wisdom of passing it now, the terrible leadership of Malcolm Turnbull and more.  

Andrew Bolt

heraldsun.com.au/andrewbolt

It would seem, the people and their representatives are bypassing the MSM in favor of  the Internet and Talk Radio.

The ETS vote has been delayed until Monday, and there may well be a leadership “spill” before the vote. If ETS fails in Australia, it will the first eco-political casualty affected in part by Climategate.

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rbateman
November 28, 2009 10:46 am

If the goverments of the UK, USA and Australia pass the climage change laws they now do so at great risk of inciting revolt within their citizenry.
Are they that stupid?
I.E. – if you passed laws that imposed intentional savagery on your economy and the people knew what the outcome was going to be, plus they knew the reasoning was bogus, would not that put the legitimacy of governement in widespead contempt?
At this point, there has to be serious talk within govenment leadership circles of going down a road that has “coup” written all over it. And that has to put them on pins & needles.
The path for govenment to back out with face-saving grace is wide open. They merely have to cite “ClimateGate” concerns, and they can opt out. You know how politicians like to look good.
Here it is. Your hot potato to drop, pre-cooked.

Terry
November 28, 2009 10:49 am

OT
I happen to be a long term friend and confidant of a BBC new presenter. She phoned me tonight to tell me that there is ”all hell breaking loose” among news producers and presenters at the BBC over the coporation’s censoring of the Climagate story. NB At one meeting Paul Hudson has been told to ‘shut up’ by his senior colleague, Roger Harrabin.

Jeff Alberts
November 28, 2009 11:20 am

Mark.R (00:13:46) :

You know, there’s a separate thread for OT stuff…

maarten
November 28, 2009 12:03 pm

@rbateman (10:46:04)
My suspicion is that today’s politicians and governments are just too arrogant and full of contempt for the people who elected them that they think they can get away with anything and the people will just accept it. Life in developed countries is still quite comfortable for most of the citizenry whose complacency prevents any meaningful challenge to governments’ decisions. Above all, most people don’t even know/understand/care about what’s unfolding here and also don’t know/understand/care about the ramifications of staying the course with the current AGW farce.

Richard M
November 28, 2009 12:50 pm

Terry (10:49:29), Now that it is known that Harrabin is covering up the story, that should be mentioned in every blog. Call out the conspirators whereever possible. It should also be implied that this is being done at the ABC, and it is most likely the truth.

Bulldust
November 28, 2009 2:06 pm

Philip Mulholland (04:40:47) :
ahhh crap – I have created a monster. I was being sarcastic because of the tired overuse of “XXXXX-Gate” in the media. Had I known it would catch on I would have kept my mouth shut LOL

Bulldust
November 28, 2009 2:29 pm

MattB (04:05:05) :
“But Bulldust you have to admit Howard made the bed the Libs are now lying in… he led his troops and ardent followers to the last election backing an ETS.”
Couldn’t agree more … it was unfortunate, populist electioneering. Howard was extremely desperate at the time. Ironic that much of the talk of CO2 taxation actually originated under England’s most Tory of Tory… the grand dame of cruel herself (I lived in Leeds during the early 80s – first degree at the University).
I think this goes to show one thing… it really doesn’t matter which side of politics you are from. All politicians that are self-serving will promote a policy that centralizes power under them. In Australia at the moment they are tossing around a working paper on tax reform in which one of the issues is wresting control of mineral royalties from the States. Constitutionally minerals belong to the States
The latter is almost redundant because the Federal Government does this in a lagged fashion through the Commonwealth Grants Scheme (CGS). Western Australia (WA – in which I live) has been the powerhouse of the economy for many years now (along with our banana-bending friends in Queensland). In the future we may see as little as half of the GST collected in this State returned to us because of normalisation through the CGS. I don’t know if there are similar mechanisms in the US, but in effect WA is being punished for being successful and is subsidizing underperforming economies like Tasmania and NSW.
WA collects less royalties than Queensland even though we produce more than half the nation’s resources on a revenue basis. There is no incentive for us to increase royalties on the resources sector, because we will lose the vast majority of the raised funds to the other states, while simultaneously providing a disincentive for the resource companies to operate here. The resource industry defines WA – without it there would be a few hundred thousand people living here instead of 2.25 million (still very small given it is one third the size of the lower 48 US states).
Then every time a major resource project arrives which requires substantial state support, do you think we can get much kicked in from the Feds? Good luck with that.
Ironic is it not, that one of the few referenda WA actually managed to vote “YES” on was one to secede from the Federation, only to have it knocked back by the Crown on constitutional grounds.
The WA Wiki entry:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Australia
PS> WA is the only Australian State or Territory with a Liberal Government in power.

Gillian Lord
November 28, 2009 5:06 pm

MattB (04:05:05) :
“But Bulldust you have to admit Howard made the bed the Libs are now lying in… he led his troops and ardent followers to the last election backing an ETS.”
Of course Malcolm Turnbull is quite correct to remind people that the John Howard government supported an ETS. But what he does not say is that since that time there has been so much more information available that any sensible interest group would have to consider that original position. The press are not doing this, neither are most politicians. In fact some politicians are quite proud to admit they are voting on somehing they know nothing about, as they have been too lazy to find out.

Richard
November 28, 2009 5:09 pm

Thanks Arnost for the Galaxy poll update.
Yes, I stand corrected! But in my defence, the Galaxy poll wasn’t published when I posted, being only published today (Sunday Australia). I’m not sure of the track record of the Galaxy poll over time, but if those results are correct, they signal a significant turnaround in public opinion. The Newspoll simply confirmed what the polls have been saying for a long time; not just the Newspoll. Note, Deadman was incorrect – the Newspoll results I quoted were taken in mid November.
But what would have triggered this turnaround if it is correct? Climategate hasn’t really registered at all in the mainstream media as far as I can see. There were gushing reports of climate doom and gloom as a result of the release of the IPCC Copenhagen diagnosis report this week.
Unless the blogosphere has had a bigger impact on this news than most would give credit for. I doubt it. Most voters would be listening/watching/reading mainstream media still IMHO.

LarryOldtimer
November 28, 2009 8:42 pm

Once a woman actually finds out that her husband has been “fooling around” with a sweet young thang . . . that is when the fireworks begin. The public of a great many western culture countries had faith that the climate “scientists” (Anthony, I do not include you in those quotation marks) were practicing real science. Now, the public of those same countries are finding out en masse that these climate “scientists” have been “fooling around” with something political and not science at all.
What more can I say, other than, “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”, or for that matter, a public which has been outright lied to over many years. And at a huge cost also.

November 28, 2009 10:12 pm

MattB (04:05:05) :
“But Bulldust you have to admit howard made the bed the Libs are now lying in… he led his troops and ardent followers to the last election backing an ETS.”
After 12 years of being harangued by the MSM and Greens as to why he didn’t
have one.
The good thing about Howard is that he used to make promises and not carry them out.
I’m sure the ETS would have been a “non-core” promise particularly after the CRU revelations. Howard was cunning enough and smart enough to have seen the “get out of jail free card” and take it. A call for “time out” while there was a full investigation of the state of climate science, which with any luck would take years with strategically released damaging revelations about the crooks running the scam at carefully timed intervals to keep up the public interest. Maybe the odd Senate grilling of BoM personnel complicit with the CRU crooks. Jail for them would be too much to hope for.

savethesharks
November 28, 2009 11:14 pm

“Lucy Skywalker (02:15:11) :
I believe that all laws passed on the basis of fraudulent evidence can be nullified. Any comments?”

You are correct. They are either null or “unenforceable.”
As treaties signed (at least per the USA Constitution) have the force of law, it is up to the Opposition to stand shoulder to shoulder and cry foul about the fraud…and then, at the same time, FIGHT.
This all has the scent…of a major worldwide revolution in the making.
But a necessary one, IF our species is going to evolve, and stop destroying ourselves with our own stupidity.
Down with the ICAGW! (International Church of the AGW).
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

savethesharks
November 28, 2009 11:18 pm

rbateman: “If the goverments of the UK, USA and Australia pass the climage change laws they now do so at great risk of inciting revolt within their citizenry.
Are they that stupid?”

I hear ya on the reaction of revolt, Rob, and yes, [I’m afraid we have been giving them WAY too much credit]…they ARE that stupid….and worse.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

savethesharks
November 28, 2009 11:25 pm

rbateman: “At this point, there has to be serious talk within govenment leadership circles of going down a road that has “coup” written all over it. And that has to put them on pins & needles.”
And they should be shakin in their boots no doubt….
….Except for narcissists like Kevin Rudd…and James Hansen (sorry…he is the man behind the curtains in the USA).
They, in their NPD insanity, think they are invincible.
Because no one has scored a coup d’etat against these bozos….YET.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Roger Knights
November 28, 2009 11:30 pm

LarryOldtimer (20:42:02) :
“Once a woman actually finds out that her husband has been “fooling around” with a sweet young thang . . . that is when the fireworks begin. The public of a great many western culture countries had faith that the climate “scientists” (Anthony, I do not include you in those quotation marks) were practicing real science. Now, the public of those same countries are finding out en masse that these climate “scientists” have been “fooling around” with something political and not science at all.
“What more can I say, other than, “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”, or for that matter, a public which has been outright lied to over many years. And at a huge cost also.”

My fingers are crossed! (I hope someone — perhaps in the field of opposition research — collects fatuous video and audio snippets of warmist politicians endorsing CAWG to display on TV during their future election campaigns.)

Cath
November 29, 2009 1:34 am

Some strange smoke screens with the media, as they have really been trying to push it is Joe Hockey who wants to challenge Turnbull, when we all know it is and should only be Tony Abbott (Rhodes Scholar, next in line to leader LIBERAL anyway).
LIBERAL rift is over Goldman Sachs Turnbull and his complete defiant fascist stance on supporting Kevin Tyrant Rudd on Copenhagen.
All this in complete defiance of the fact that NO ONE believes in the Global Warming Scam, and the Hacking of the UK East Anglia University Email data proving the fraud and conspiracy to fudge the science at the highest level, and the tactics taken. Though problem still is this could just all be SMOKE SCREENS to bring the ETS to more front an issue exposing that even Liberals endorse it, as it is no secret that LIBERAL wanted to bring in their version of the ETS under Costello & Howard (yes, Goldman Sachs, IMF, etc all have their fingers in Aussie politicians pockets for some time).
Alan Watt says ‘they’ have real issue with the tough ‘no bullshit’ psyche of the Aussie people, here we have an issue, so ‘they’ must do everything in their power to keep it out of the media, so no one knows or understands until we wake up in socialist hell, like New Zealand will on 1st January 2010 when they start getting taxed for breathing!

Pete Ridley
November 29, 2009 4:34 am

Mike McMillan, “Rudd, and Turnbull, please? Conservative, liberal, pro/anti AGW, etc?”.
Rudd, Labour leader & PM,
Turnbull, Liberal (but perhaps not much longer).
Neither are true believers in The (signicifcant human-made global climate change) Hypothesis (AKA AGW). Both are true believers in their own status, power and well-being (like most politicians).
May I suggest that all of you who reject The Hypothesis comment on the UN’s COP15 threads, available from http://en.cop15.dk/news. Make your feelings known – but expect to be removed after a while. The best time to post is early weekend as it will probably be replaced on the Monday by
“Moderator Date Time – Deleted due to terms of use violation”. I just keep re-posting mine.
We’re winning.
Best regards, Pete Ridley, hum,an-made global climate change agnos(scep)tic

antzemail1
November 29, 2009 4:41 am

Just responding to criticism (good/bad) in regards to my youtube clip. It was largely conceptual but I was especially careful not to over-state or misrepresent facts and to put it into simple language. The clip was done in a hurry using a program that is very inefficient and limited – Windows Movie Maker…
In fact you may think I am BSing but I drive a forklift for a living, this means it was personal. I will struggle to afford a house.
This does not mean I am dumb; I take an interest in politics amongst other things. Housing affordability is a massive issue in Australia. This is not about the ‘poor becoming poorer’, it is a battle over the middle man, the one who owns his own small business or is trying to buy a house. If you think an average young person can now afford a house on one income you are living on the same planet Malcolm Turnball found himself on over the past week.
This clip is designed for a younger demographic and is conceptual as well as factual. It is nothing special but it was created with conviction – as we saw this issue was a battle of conviction.
The secular media became obscelete over the weekend, as they tried to pressure the Australian Liberal party by arguing a pro-ETS stance. I really believe that it was conviction that made me, a young male, do something (a youtube clip)… This was a 100% genuine grass-roots campaign!

truth
November 29, 2009 5:56 am

There are many of us in Australia who have been trying for several years, on just the handful of blogs that will touch it, to publicise the challenges to the ‘Hockey Team by Climate Audit, WUWT, and Roger Pielke Sr etc—because apart from the few principled blogs, and radio hosts, there has been a complete shutdown of information and debate on this issue in our MSM here.
Instead, up until now, the Labor government, aided by the MSM, has fed to Australians a steady diet of the IPCC consensus Hockey Stick alarmist version of this issue—exclusively—and with bogus wildly alarmist new pronouncements regularly thrown in.
This cabal has intimidated the Opposition politicians to the extent that , for a politician with aspirations of higher office—– to admit or even come close to admitting he has questions about the official consensus view and science on this, is akin to political suicide.
They are regularly ridiculed by government [ in parliament]and tacitly dared by MSM journalists to show a shred of scepticism at their peril.
Consequently, polls show that a majority [ but now decreasing thankfully ] of Australians have been indoctrinated to believe the alarmist consensus version, and want an ETS as soon as possible , but haven’t a clue what it entails.
This is the situation that Liberal [ Liberal here is similar to Republicans there and Conservatives in the UK] party supporters have finally had enough of, and we are calling on our representatives , by email and phone calls and blogs, to reject the ETS and work to inform themselves and subsequently to inform all Australians , of the real status of this science—all the developments—the challenges and the fraud allegations as yet unresolved— the content of the hacked emails, and the views of the scientists on the sceptic side.
The MSM here, to its eternal shame, has almost completely ignored the hacked emails, but Andrew Bolt published the sites and so we’re all into them, while the MSM holds its nose and pretends they’re non-existent.
This revolt was already under way when the emails emerged, but the Liberal politicians hadn’t yet moved, although their Coalition partners, [ the Nationals] had signalled that they would reject the legislation.
There are many of us who will simply not vote for the present leader, as he insists the ETS be passed with Australians knowing almost zero about it—and he swallows the IPCC line without question, no matter what developments occur, and what mistakes are revealed. His mind is closed on this issue.
Our Liberal politicians , especially the more conservative ones, are now very forthrightly standing up for democracy, often sacrificing their high office, and we’re hoping that the leader will be replaced on Tuesday [ our time] , and the scrutiny will begin, followed by real information and debate.

savethesharks
November 29, 2009 6:51 am

@antzemail1 (04:41:27)…re your Youtube clip:
Give ’em hell, mate!
I plan to circulate it with everyone I know in the USA.
Very simple and VERY effective with the blank screen, the words, and the music.
What you are saying really has global implications, because no matter what sovereignty in which we reside, there is a common enemy:
It is this “science”-turned-religion anomaly called the Church of the AGW that is trying to steer world policy and world economics and that will ultimately try to break the backs and control working bright lads like yourself.
They may try, but they will NOT succeed….as there are too many of us.
Just like they have fraudulently doctored the data and used the climate models to OVERESTIMATE the alarm…
…they WILL have grossly UNDERESTIMATED the backlash…a backlash of smart, reasonable, and feisty blokes like you are saying: Hell NO!
It is almost comical how much they have underestimated this.
And while these not-so-bright figures continue to smugly galavant around the world yelling “chicken little”…
…and their policywankers (er um “policymakers”) are flitting about in their wake and in their CO2-producing private jets trying to sign draconian treaties and laws with their milk-toast, limp, smooth hands…
All the bird dogs around the world (young and old, male and female) are perking up…
…ears lifted…eyes squinted…ALL completely still with alertness…
…watching these dumb, lumbering 800-pound-gorilla-AGW-machines smash through the forest…
…until it is time to move in for the…
————-
Hey BOZOS!! Over here!!
Yeah…you know who you are.
You may have tried to scare the World into submission, thanks to some “garbage in-garbage out” climate models and below-the-belt “science”…into believing that it is coming to an end.
But your biggest mistake was:
You failed to model….us!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Pete Ridley
November 29, 2009 6:55 am

Truth, there appears to be a significant shifting in public opinion on The (significant human-made global climate change) Hypothesis. The Galaxy poll on 27th – http://resources.news.com.au/files/2009/11/28/1225804/945513-galaxy-poll.pdf
shows interesting results. A massive 80% of people want more information about the ETS, with 60% of people wanting it deferred until after Copenhagen. UNQUOTE.
I’m surprised it hasn’t been mentioned here
Best regards, Pete R

Roger Knights
November 29, 2009 9:05 pm

“Rudd’s Climate-Change Bill May Fail, Leaving Him Empty Handed for Obama”:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSOEV9H1PyRQ&pos=9

mick
November 29, 2009 9:19 pm

One last thing, this dumb thing that Howard had an ETS so Malcolm has to as well, or Howard did so it’s ok for Malcolm, is a tu quoque argument isn’t it?

Mark.R
November 29, 2009 11:22 pm

news today on the Commonwealth leader meeting .
Commonwealth leaders welcome proposed fund to address climate change.
Port of Spain, Nov 29, GNA – President John Evans Atta Mills together with other leaders of countries of the Commonwealth, have hailed the initiative to establish a $10 billion Copenhagen Launch Fund next year, to provide immediate funding for adaptation to climate change.
The Heads of Government called for immediate action, by using all available avenues to avoid dangerous climate change and its attendant catastrophic effects.