From the “WUWT never reports on anything warm department”, JPL reports El Niño looks like it is on schedule to make a Christmas appearance as “The Boy”. The good news is that it will likely help California’s water situation this year.
From NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
El Niño is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Recent sea-level height data from the NASA/French Space Agency Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show that a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October has triggered a strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) between 170 degrees east and 100 degrees west longitude. A series of similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and has sustained the present El Niño condition.
This image was created with data collected by the U.S./French satellite during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. It shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that is about 10 to 18 centimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the western equatorial Pacific, where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue and purple areas) are between 8 to 15 centimeters (3 and 6 inches) below normal. Along the equator, the red and white colors depict areas where sea surface temperatures are more than one to two degrees Celsius above normal (two to four degrees Fahrenheit).
“In the American west, where we are struggling under serious drought conditions, this late-fall charge by El Niño is a pleasant surprise, upping the odds for much-needed rain and an above-normal winter snowpack,” said JPL oceanographer Bill Patzert.
For more information on NASA’s ocean surface topography missions, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ ; or to view the latest Jason data, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/.
Bob Tisdale: If relaxation of the trade winds initiates the El Nino, what would be a cause of that again…? Higher pressure than usual along the Intertropical Convergence Zone? Or lower pressure in the subtropics?
It appears to me that the biggest driver of the ENSO, is really the Atmospheric Angular Momentum noted by Ninderthana. Other than the Sun, AAM is the biggest force impacting the climate, it is the rotation of the Earth and the combined impact of all the atmospheric winds on the planet, ie, one very big system.
There is a high correlation, but there are also two large El Ninos in the last 50 years which are not predicted by AAM (and the current El Nino is also not predicted by AAM either which is currently quite negative).
http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/6969/ensovsaam.png
So we also have the Trade Winds, Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly (the subsurface circulation of it in the Pacific), and the SOI which are all part of the same big system (potentially primarily driven by AAM in the first place).
Any of these other factors might be the primary driver at any one time, so we would should be looking at all of them.
http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/479/ensovstrades.png
http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/7098/ensovseuoha.png
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/5826/ensovssoi.png
Here in the midwest (USA Indiana), the first two weeks of Nov have been warm and sunny, much different from the cold rainy weather in October. Is this the expected weather for a strengthening El Nino?
The PDO was discovered while studying why salmon tonnage apparently followed both short term and long term oscillations. It was determined that there could be a predominately cool or warm phase that could last 50 – 60 years. During these longer phases there could be episodes of El Nino or La Nina but that overall the long term oscillation could be placed into one of three categories: neutral, cool, or warm.
Here is a general overview of the connection. One can also use fish tonnage that go further back in time as more and more ship logs and Indian oral histories are studied.
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/ca-pdo.cfm
Adam from Kansas (16:44:19) :
If you, Tallbloke, have been getting these predictions close to the mark, than perhaps you could write an article on this site highlighting your observations, your past predictions that came true, and what’s ahead for the future.
It could be interesting. 🙂
Although my UAH October prediction of 0.35 was high, the sept-oct UAH anomaly fell:
2009 09 0.422
2009 10 0.284
Which crosses my prediction of 0.35 nicely centred in the middle. Air temperatures can spike up and down quite a lot on a bi-monthly basis, so I’m happy with the result.
I arrived at my prediction through a combination of using the model I’ve built which uses sunspot number data and LOD data, and looking at the el nino which occured 115 years earlier at the end of the C19th.
LOD changes are linked to changes in atmospheric angular momentum.
Bob Tisdale (02:48:40) : “If you stop the video in Jan 1997, the Kelvin wave is very pronounced in the central equatorial Pacific, but the SST anomalies don’t really show it yet. Then as the warm water moves east, some rises to the surface, increasing the SST anomalies.”
Hey Bob, I like the El Nino animations you have found/created. However, I’m not sure your interpretation of how Kelvin waves increase SST anomalies is correct. In particular, I don’t think it is right to say that “as warm water moves east some rises to the surface”. Those large sub-surface anomalies associated with Kelvin waves do represent a “bulge” of warm water. However, the largest subsurface anomalies reflect a displacement of the thermocline so that the warmest anomalies are regions normally below the thermocline that become above the thermocline because of the “flattening” effect of the Kelvin wave. It is this “flattening” combined with weakening trade winds that allow the warmer waters in the west Pacific to “slosh” to the east increasing SST, not rising of “sub-surface waters”. The subsurface temps are cooler than temps near the surface, so I don’t even know if that would make sense.
Re: Bill Illis (06:01:42)
So then the question becomes: What is driving GLAAM? And why does its phase intermittently match that of various functions of interannual geomagnetic aa index (over different eras depending on the function)? As my investigations deepen, I’m starting to wonder if Piers Corbyn recently let us down on purpose (to strategically lower expectations). I have become convinced beyond all shadow of a doubt that the arguments that the sun & solar system have no effect on terrestrial climate are not only misleading, but also both ludicrous & scandalous.
anna v and Bill Illis: I’ve finished the post that includes the .gif animation comparisons of the current equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature anomalies to the subsurface anomalies of past El Nino events:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/will-200910-el-nino-become-super-el.html
What does the weight of a Northern Hemisphere winter snow-pack do to the angular momentum of the planet?
Espen (03:04:03) : You asked, “If relaxation of the trade winds initiates the El Nino, what would be a cause of that again…? Higher pressure than usual along the Intertropical Convergence Zone? Or lower pressure in the subtropics?”
I don’t believe the researchers have identified one particular cause for the relaxation of the trade winds. It may change per El Nino.
Bill Illis: You’ve researched tropical Pacific trade winds. Can you shed further light on this and correct me if I’ve missed something in my reply to Espen?
Re: Ninderthana
“In addition, it can be seen from the time-frequency spectral analysis that the seasonal atmospheric oscillations also affect the intensities of El Nino and La Nina events. The global seasonal atmospheric circulation appears to be eastward in winters and springs, and westward in summers (see Fig. 1b). Therefore, if an El Nino (or La Nina) reaches its peak period in winter or spring, a relatively strong El Nino (or weak La Nina) event will usually occur due to the anomalous eastward seasonal circulation of the atmosphere. On the other hand, if the peak period is reached in summer, a relatively weak El Nino (or strong La Nina) event will be resulted from the anomalous westward seasonal circulation in the atmosphere.”
Zheng, D.; Ding, X.; Zhou, Y; & Chen, Y. (2003). Earth rotation and ENSO events: combined excitation of interannual LOD variations by multiscale atmospheric oscillations. Global and Planetary Change 36, 89-97.
Their presentation could have been substantially improved by including bivariate color-contour cross-wavelet phase-contrasts for figure 4.
Re: Pamela Gray (06:21:36) & (06:27:17)
It’s not just salmon & PDO:
Klyashtorin, L.B.; & Lyubushin, A.A. (2007). Cyclic Climate Changes and Fish Productivity. Government of The Russian Federation, State Committee For Fisheries of The Russian Federation, Federal State Unitary Enterprise (FSUE), Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO). Moscow, VNIRO Publishing.
http://alexeylyubushin.narod.ru/Climate_Changes_and_Fish_Productivity.pdf
Paul Vaughan (07:27:37) :
I have become convinced beyond all shadow of a doubt that the arguments that the sun & solar system have no effect on terrestrial climate are not only misleading, but also both ludicrous & scandalous.
Well said Paul.
Adam, great point. We seem to be inundated with “anomalies”. There is no “warm” pool of water, subsurface, in the central or eastern Pacific. But there is a not as cool as “normal”, pool. IMHO, there is not a supply of warm water lurking at depth that will rise to the surface and feed the El Nino. ISTM a lot of the misinformation about our climate derives from creation of anomalies, whether they are air, SST, etc. When one looks at the absolute values, the Earth seems to be very stable. My 2 cents worth. Hot day in Sacramento is 100, cold is 30. In the overall scheme of things, that is pretty stable.
Here’s a key admission:
“Because both the tide-raising potential and the solid Earth’s elastic response to the tidal forces caused by this potential are wellknown, accurate models for the effects of the elastic solid body tides on the Earth’s rotation are available. However, models for the effect of the ocean tides on the Earth’s rotation are more problematic because of the need to model the dynamic response of the oceans to the tidal forces.” (italic-emphasis added)
Gross, R. (2009). Ocean Tidal Effects on Length-of-Day.
http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2009/EGU2009-1558.pdf
Paul Vaughan (07:27:37) :
….
I have become convinced beyond all shadow of a doubt that the arguments that the sun & solar system have no effect on terrestrial climate are not only misleading, but also both ludicrous & scandalous.
Why do you say this? Could you describe the mechanism by which the sun & solar system affects terrestrial climate?
Adam: You wrote, “However, I’m not sure your interpretation of how Kelvin waves increase SST anomalies is correct. In particular, I don’t think it is right to say that “as warm water moves east some rises to the surface”.
Thanks for the heads-up on how that can be interpreted. I was not my intent to imply that the movement east is what causes the warm water to rise to the surface. Sorry for how that sounded. It happens when I take shortcuts.
John Finn (12:09:38) :
Could you describe the mechanism by which the sun & solar system affects terrestrial climate?
Try these two:
Pulling and pushing.
Stretching and squeezing.
😉
Paul Vaughan,
Richard Gross of NASA says most of the changes in length of day are brought about by changing sub crustal currents. His estimate is around 90% of the multidecadal changes are due to this. Logic says this is due to changes in sub crustal currents affecting the relative distribution of material of differing densities closer to and further from the centre of the Earth.
What could cause this? Changing magnetic activity in the space the Earth moves through pulling/pushing ferrous material around?
Stretching and squeezing of the Earth by the moon and it’s alignments with other celestial bodies as it’s declination changes over the 18.6 year cycle?
Bob Tisdale (08:14:03) : “I don’t believe the researchers have identified one particular cause for the relaxation of the trade winds. It may change per El Nino.”
Given all the mention, data massage, and animation of El Nino itself, it would seem that relaxation of the trade winds is all too quickly shrugged off. Googling the two gives these results:
“El Nino”: 15.4 million hits;
relaxation + “trade winds” -hotel -beach: 10 thousand hits
The ultimate cause of late 20th Century record “global” temperatures in 1998? Oh, it was just “relaxation of the trade winds.” Meh. Ho hum. Wanna go watch ’em knock down the old Endicott Building?
In case it hasn’t shown up here:
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/pandemic_1918_1919.html
“Some scientists have proposed that El Niño and its consequences might be intensifying due to global warming. The strong El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 support this idea.
“However, a new NOAA-funded study shows that the 1918/1919 El Niño was one of the strongest of the 20th century, a finding counter to earlier analyses that viewed it as weak. This research could ultimately lead to a better understanding of how El Niño events impact weather in the United States and globally. It also suggests a possible link between El Niño and the 1918 flu pandemic.”
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Now the Warmist willies want to blame pandemics on climate change? It’s worse than we thought.
Science is dead.
Re: tallbloke (14:10:32)
Don’t trust Gross’s percentage estimates.
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Volume 117 Issue 499, Pages 571 – 585
Published Online: 15 Dec 2006
Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
Variations common to the interplanetary magnetic field, the zonal atmospheric circulation and the earth’s rotation
D. Djurovic 1, P. Páquet 2
1Department of Astronomy, University of Belgrade, YU-11000 Belgrade, Yugoslavia
2Royal Observatory of Belgium, Avenue Circulaire, B-1180 Brussels, Belgium
Abstract
A study of the cyclic fluctuations in the earth’s rotation, the geomagnetic field, the global atmospheric circulation and solar activity reveals the existence of 50-day and 120-day oscillations common to all. Our results, as well as the results obtained by radiometric measurements from the satellites Nimbus-7 and the Solar Maximum Mission (Wilson 1982; Pap 1985), suggest that their origin lies in the physical processes in the sun. The mechanism remains unexplained but from this work it follows that the role of the interplanetary magnetic field could very well be important.
Paul Vaughan (15:06:46) :
Re: tallbloke (14:10:32)
Don’t trust Gross’s percentage estimates.
I don’t trust anyones estimates except mine. 😉
I downloaded the LOD data and compared it to changes in Atmospheric angular momentum. What I discovered was than AAM did indeed only account for a small proportion of changes in LOD, roughly 10%.
So, what about the rest? The info I’ve seen on changes caused by oceanic temperature shifts don’t account for much of LOD change either, so what is left but what’s under the Earth’s surface?