"Proof" that media is hyping AGW shamelessly without asking basic questions like: "did you check the lake for DDT"?

From news.com.au this “stunning” development citing lake sediment and some midges “proves” everything. Glad that’s settled. See thoughts at the end.

This is the title of the story at news.com.au, link to story here

proof_humans_cause_AGW

But here is the University of Colorado press release that started it all. Note that in no place in the release do they use the word “proof”.

Arctic Lake Sediment Record Shows Warming, Unique Ecological Changes in Recent Decades

October 19, 2009

An analysis of sediment cores indicates that biological and chemical changes occurring at a remote Arctic lake are unprecedented over the past 200,000 years and likely are the result of human-caused climate change, according to a new study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder.

A University of Colorado at Boulder-led analysis of a 200,000 year-old sediment core from a Baffin Island lake indicates warming temperatures in the Arctic due to human activity are overriding a natural cooling trend in the region. Photo by Jason Briner, University at Buffalo

While environmental changes at the lake over the past millennia have been shown to be tightly linked with natural causes of climate change — like periodic, well-understood wobbles in Earth’s orbit — changes seen in the sediment cores since about 1950 indicate expected climate cooling is being overridden by human activity like greenhouse gas emissions. The research team reconstructed past climate and environmental changes at the lake on Baffin Island using indicators that included algae, fossil insects and geochemistry preserved in sediment cores that extend back 200,000 years.

“The past few decades have been unique in the past 200,000 years in terms of the changes we see in the biology and chemistry recorded in the cores,” said lead study author Yarrow Axford of CU-Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. “We see clear evidence for warming in one of the most remote places on Earth at a time when the Arctic should be cooling because of natural processes.”

The study was published Oct. 19 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The study included researchers from CU-Boulder, the State University of New York’s University at Buffalo, the University of Alberta, the University of Massachusetts and Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario.

The sediment cores were extracted from the bottom of a roughly 100-acre, 30-foot-deep lake near the village of Clyde River on the east coast of Baffin Island, which is several hundred miles west of Greenland. The lake sediment cores go back in time 80,000 years beyond the oldest reliable ice cores from Greenland and capture the environmental conditions of two previous ice ages and three interglacial periods.

The sediment cores showed that several types of mosquito-like midges that flourish in very cold climates have been abundant at the lake for the past several thousand years. But the cold-adapted midge species abruptly began declining in about 1950, matching their lowest abundances of the last 200,000 years. Two of the midge species adapted to the coldest temperatures have completely disappeared from the lake region, said Axford.

In addition, a species of diatom, a lake algae that was relatively rare at the site before the 20th century, has undergone unprecedented increases in recent decades, possibly in response to declining ice cover on the Baffin Island lake.

“Our results show that the human footprint is overpowering long-standing natural processes even in remote Arctic regions,” said co-author John Smol of Queen’s University. “This historical record shows that we are dramatically affecting the ecosystems on which we depend.”

The ancient lake sediment cores are the oldest ever recovered from glaciated parts of Canada or Greenland. Massive ice sheets during ice ages generally scour the underlying bedrock and remove previous sediments.

“What is unique about these sediment cores is that even though glaciers covered this lake, for various reasons they did not erode it,” said study co-author Jason Briner of the University at Buffalo. The result is that we have a really long sequence of sediment that has survived Arctic glaciations.”

Axford emphasized the multiyear research project required expertise from each of the five institutions involved in the PNAS study. “This was a team effort all the way around, and each of the institutions has a unique set of skills that allowed us to carry out this study,” she said. “We needed people who understood algae, insects, glaciers and geochemistry, not to mention how to drive snowmobiles and extract the cores.”

The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Geological Society of America.

A study published in Science magazine last month that involved CU-Boulder researchers and reconstructed past temperatures in the Arctic using ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments concluded that recent warming around the Arctic is overriding a cooling trend caused by Earth’s periodic wobble. Earth is now about 0.6 million miles further from the sun during the Northern Hemisphere summer solstice than it was in 1 B.C. — a trend that has caused overall cooling in the Arctic until recently.

INSTAAR researcher and CU-Boulder geological sciences Professor Gifford Miller was a co-author on both the PNAS study and the recent Science study.


A scientist on a mailing list I subscribe to put it in perspective this way:

1. “several types of mosquito-like midges that for many thousands of years thrived in cold climate surrounding the lake suddenly began declining at around 1950” — Have they accounted for the use of DDT, then? Seems to me that DDT on Baffin Island could have been very popular among trappers and the military in the 50s. Possibly pertinent too:

DDT and its breakdown products are transported from warmer regions of the world to the Arctic by the phenomenon of global distillation, where they then accumulate in the region’s food web
http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/DDT

Thus there might be a human impact on this parameter, but of another kind.

Beyond that, though, if the authors are suggesting that CO2 has caused a mosquito or midge shortage up north, they should consult caribou herds, whose route of wandering is traceable to wind direction, so desperate are these animals to escape the floating bloodsuckers.

In the Canadian Arctic, researchers who bared their arms, legs, and torsos in an experiment reported as many as 9,000 [mosquito] bites per minute.
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Fall02/Mosquitoes.html

Who knows, then? Changing wind patterns and a consequent shift of caribou migration (the supporting host) or DDT usage might account for the decline of midge bodies in this particular study of Ayr Lake. But CO2?

2. “The Earth is now some 600,000 miles (966,000 kilometers) further from the sun during the Northern Hemisphere summer solstice than it was at the time of Jesus Christ” — A sad example of allegation that’s already become a repeated “fact” simply because no one’s bothered to investigate it. I have, and find no indication that this million km claim is true.

– Alan


Just a note on DDT from Wikipedia:

First synthesized in 1874, DDT’s insecticidal properties were not discovered until 1939. In the second half of World War II, it was used with great effect to control mosquitoes spreading malaria and lice transmitting typhus among civilians and troops, resulting in dramatic reductions in the incidence of both diseases. The Swiss chemist Paul Hermann Müller was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1948 “for his discovery of the high efficiency of DDT as a contact poison against several arthropods.” After the war, DDT was made available for use as an agricultural insecticide, and soon its production and use skyrocketed.

Here’ s a 2008 study on DDT in penguins that sums it up pretty well:

POPs (Persistent organic pollutants)  accumulate in the Antarctic and Arctic via repeated cycles of evaporation and condensation as they move poleward through the atmosphere from the tropical and temperate zones where most are released.

Or how about this one:

Seabird Droppings Raising DDT, Mercury Levels in Arctic: Canadian Study

2005 TORONTO (CP) – Seabird droppings are leaving more than a foul mess in the Arctic – they’re contaminating northern lakes and ponds with extremely high levels of mercury and DDT, Canadian researchers have found.

Concentrations of the chemicals were found to be as much as 60 times higher in bodies of water on Devon Island, Nunavut, than in other Arctic areas, says a study to be published Friday in the journal Science.

No, no it couldn’t be DDT killing those midges, it has to be global warming since 1950.

Journalism is dead, science may not be far behind.

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tty
October 20, 2009 11:38 am

A clarification. It is not a matter of midges “disappearing”, it is a matter of changing species composition. Different midge (chironomid) species larvae have different temperature requirements and the species composition is therefore an excellent “thermometer”. This is a temperature proxy for summer water temperatures that has been used for a long time.
Some people have raised the matter of the Medieval Warm Period. This study cannot say anything about that, because that time period is missing. There are two different cores involved, one long core going back into the Pleistocene and a very short one covering the most recent period. This is nothing unusual by itself. To get a long core you have to use rather violent methods, usually a percussion corer, which will usually destroy the unconsolidated surface layer. As far as I can see from the diagrams the last 1000 years or so is missing from the long core while the short core only covers the period c. 1750-2009. Consequently the period c. 1000-1750 AD (including most of both the MWP and the LIA) was not sampled, or at least not reported on.
However I must say I have some misgivings about the short core. There is unfortunately no information on how long it was, but from the long core it is obvious that sedimentation is rather slow, on the order of 1 cm per century once the sediment has been compacted. As far as I can see they have up to 16 or 17 data points over about 250 years (though only 5 for temperatures). Even with uncompacted sediment this is extremely dense sampling, probably only a few millimetres apart. Such close sampling only give valid results if there is absolutely bioturbation or bottom currents.

D. King
October 20, 2009 11:51 am

“The sediment cores showed that several types of mosquito-like midges that flourish in very cold climates have been abundant at the lake for the past several thousand years. But the cold-adapted midge species abruptly began declining in about 1950, matching their lowest abundances of the last 200,000 years. Two of the midge species adapted to the coldest temperatures have completely disappeared from the lake region, said Axford.”
So, we are to believe the midges died of heat prostration?

jorgekafkazar
October 20, 2009 12:03 pm

OH, THE HUMIDGITY!

Zeke the Sneak
October 20, 2009 12:36 pm

“The sediment cores showed that several types of mosquito-like midges that flourish in very cold climates have been abundant at the lake for the past several thousand years.”
The adaptability of mosquito type insects is a frightening subject. Some may not be aware of the Wetlands Creation project, but up here in the Northwestern U S, the State of Oregon spends tax money that should rightfully go to road construction and maintenance and actually builds swamps. water.usgs.gov has info on swamp creation as a gov’t policy.
It is interesting that the same governments who have found it their business to build wetlands are also working to restrict the types of mosquito control that keep us safe from malaria, for example.
Here is a map of potential malaria vectors in the US:
http://www.cdc.gov/Malaria/images/features/malaria_map_enlarged.jpg
Mosquito-borne diseases also include West NIle Virus, yellow fever, dengue, and encephalitis. It is interesting to keep an eye on the environmental restrictions imposed on mosquito and vector control districts.

October 20, 2009 1:21 pm

Zeke the Sneak (12:36:34) : The author of that sensational idea of making swamps for breeding mosquitoes deserves the Nobel prize.

Espen
October 20, 2009 1:37 pm

tty:
Couldn’t acidity also be due to acid rain?

sky
October 20, 2009 2:12 pm

Isn’t “no” before bioturbation missing in you r post?

tty
October 20, 2009 2:21 pm

Zeke the Sneak and others.
THIS IS NOT, REPEAT NOT, A MATTER OF MOSQUITOS.
The study is about chironomids, non-stinging relatives of midges, they do not suck blood, they do not spread diseases.
And Zeke the Sneak and Adolfo Giurfa. Malaria is extinct in the United States, as in all developed countries. This happened in the early twentieth century, and it won’t come back unless the US reverts to third world housing and living coditions. If that happens it will come back whether there are wetlands about or not.

October 20, 2009 2:52 pm

Any study performed by scientists from The Peoples Republic Of Boulder, should receive a healthy dose of scrutiny.

George E. Smith
October 20, 2009 3:37 pm

So changes occurring over the last 200,000 years are unprecedented, and are due to humans.
Well I dare say that the entire history of the universe is unprecedented; in that nothing ever repeats.
And just how were humans affecting Canadian Climate 200,000 years ago, if they didn’t arrive in the new world till maybe 30,000 or so years ago.
What about all of the other now long dead or extinct critters that evidently inhabited the Americas during that 200,000 years. Is there some new miracle proof that they didn’t alter the climate; after all; just the buffalow, and the passenger pigeons existed in such vast numbers that they blocked out the sun, and caused minor earth tremors when they ran in huge herds.
Ah yes I can see how the lake bottom mud could pin the blame on that chap in Tajikistan whose descendents colonized the Americas.
Is there someone out there with special expertise in climate who can say with a definitive air, and proof, just what extended period in the earth’s 4.5 or thereabouts existence was characterized by NO CHANGE in climate; that we can use as a reliable base line for what we should be striving to return the earth to.
Was it in the last million years; or maybe ten million, 100 million years ago ? When was that period of no climate change, that has us all worked up about today.

Dan
October 20, 2009 3:48 pm

DDT wasn’t used to kill the midges. It would have been used to kill the biting flies, a scourge of the Arctic, and the midges would have been collateral damage.

Zeke the Sneak
October 20, 2009 3:59 pm

Oh alright, that was a nutty rabbit trail, but a Nobel Prize–you shouldn’t have! 🙂

Zeke the Sneak
October 20, 2009 4:19 pm

Now I certainly did not say that any breeding was taking place. But I do not have to like the use of taxes to build swamps, within city limits quite often.
And between the creation of mosquito habitats and the ever increasing limitations of pesticide use, I hope it is plain enough to see there is a potential for governmental ineptitude. In fact, the availability of vaccines, disease surveillance and immigration control or lack thereof are all areas in a complicated subject in which we rely on gov’t competence to some extent or another. Then again, I may have some irrational phobia epidemics, so I ask you to have me excused. It is a besetting weakness…
I will leave you with a cheerful thought. Any disease can come into this country at anytime.
“CDC received reports of 1,505 cases of malaria among persons in the United States, including one transfusion-related case and one fatal case, with onset of symptoms in 2007; 1,564 cases were reported for 2006

Britannic no-see-um
October 20, 2009 4:26 pm

I swear I never flame-gunned them all with my lighter- only some.

Gary Hladik
October 20, 2009 4:27 pm

ralph (11:27:28) : “But the net result of all this opposition is that we have overpopulated the Earth, and are running out of resources.”
FYI we’re not running out of resources. Read The Ultimate Resource II by economist Julian Simon, or The Skeptical Environmentalist by Bjorn Lomborg. For a shorter overview of the non-problem, check out
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/08/there-is-no-shortage-of-stuff

Ray
October 20, 2009 10:00 pm

Maybe there are more frogs in and around that lake since 1950.

Ray Boorman
October 20, 2009 10:02 pm

Jon, that paper you linked to at rintintin.cu was not the one this thread is about.

Joachim
October 21, 2009 2:13 am

Here is a webpage showing the earths orbit around the sun. The difference in distrance from the sun is several million km at various times of the year. It is plausible that the earth is almost a million km further away from the sun at summer solstice than it was 2000 years ago.
http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/6h.html
I found this page on my first google search, so his search could not have been exhausting.

October 21, 2009 3:46 am

I have just read the paper and what astonishes me is that the time between the 19th century back to about 1000 before Christ is not mentioned at all. neither in the graphs, nor in the paper. Is it not possible to get boreholes aout of that timeframe? Or would the roman optimum and the medieval warm period have disturbed the findings of the paper?

jon
October 21, 2009 4:20 am

Ray … you are right … her publications are listed on her website:
http://rintintin.colorado.edu/~axford/pubs.html
Her latest paper is not available on pdf yet.

October 21, 2009 8:23 am

>>FYI we’re not running out of resources. Read The Ultimate
>>Resource II by economist Julian Simon
>>http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/08/there-is-no-shortage-of-stuff
I don’t believe a word of this – it even claims that desalination is cheaper than rain!!
Even if more fossil fuels are discovered, you can bet that they will be in unsavoury locations, that we should not be trading with. Most of our global political problems are cause by oil being under the Middle East, and us paying good money for it.
The ideology and the resourced that toppled the World Trade Center was all paid for with your petro-dollars.
,

Gary Hladik
October 21, 2009 11:10 am

ralph (08:23:03) : “I don’t believe a word of this – it even claims that desalination is cheaper than rain!!”
I believe ralph was confused by this statement about improved desalination technology: “Thanks to this device, it is now cheaper to make fresh water along the coast of California rather than to put a dam in the mountains and a pipeline to carry it to a city near the shore.”
Not quite the same thing, is it? Note that rain isn’t “free” when the state has to build new dams, create new reservoirs, and construct new pipelines to take the rain from where it falls (if it falls at all) to where it doesn’t. BTW, is California even building any new dams right now? The state is building desalination plants:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124708765072714061.html

Kukee American
October 21, 2009 4:18 pm

About the wobble, err the Milankovitch cycles (precession, obliquity, and eccentricity) have the respective cycle time of 25K, 41K, and 100K years.
So this moron who suggests that in 1 BC – 2 K years ago – that the earth’s orbit was 600,000 miles further from the Sun. That would mean that the earth moves 300 miles further from the sun every year.
Now let’s see. 300 mile per year over a cycle of 100,000 years that means that the earth move away for 50,000 years. So that calculates to an orbit that is 1.5 million miles bigger in radius….. OOPS it isn’t a circle its an elipse, DAMN it. That means that the earth is closer during one season and further during the opposing season.
Let see: What did Milankovitch say about the glaciations and the cycles: the Milankovitch theory, when the eccentricity is small, the obliquity is low, and precession is such that the northern hemisphere is furthest from the sun during the summer, then glaciers and snow cover should expand, and in turn reflect more insolation in the polar regions leading to colder and colder temperatures. Damn it to hell, again! Today the earth’s eccentricity is 0.0167 and getting smaller, the obliquity is 23.4 degrees and headed lower, and the northern hemisphere is furthest from the sun during the summer months. So the oval is becoming more circular and therefore the furthest distance on the oval is moving closer to the foci (sun)…
That would mean that the earth is actually getting closer to the sun during the summer solstice not further away. Oh and the precession yeah , forgot to figure that in….
Copenhagen here we come, like good little commies.
God help us all.

Glenn
October 21, 2009 8:34 pm

Seems Anthony has uncovered a can of worms, or rather a can of warmologists.
Axford, Briner (authors of the peek into lake CF8 just out of the town of Clyde River)
banded together in an article recently published in Science that included the likes of Caspar Ammann and Keith Briffa. There’s discussion about the below article at http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7005
http://www.climateaudit.org/?paged=3
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/325/5945/1236
“The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.”
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=global-warming-reverses-arctic-cooling
The idea apparently is to push the fantasy, er, inference that the earth should be cooling, but has been drastically warming for the last 50 years.
It *is* curious that none of the journal articles that use support from lake CF8 to evidence global warming even mention in passing that any tests were done on contaminants that could affect midge populations, since it does seem a valid consideration. Several of the above authors who participated in several of these articles did study lead concentrations in lake CF8. Lead, as well as mercury and other chemicals existed or were used in some form in inseccticides and larvicides. Lead was also present in fuels used in the Arctic from the ’40s to the ’70s. No mention of possible effects on midges in the abstract.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19665172
“Despite widespread reductions in industrial Pb emissions since the 1970s, there is no evidence for attendant reductions of pollution Pb at Lake CF8.”
A picture of the DEW radar base a few miles out of Clyde River (scroll down):
http://jproc.ca/hyperbolic/loran_a.html
“This is all that remains of the Canadian Loran A station at Cape Christian”