"Proof" that media is hyping AGW shamelessly without asking basic questions like: "did you check the lake for DDT"?

From news.com.au this “stunning” development citing lake sediment and some midges “proves” everything. Glad that’s settled. See thoughts at the end.

This is the title of the story at news.com.au, link to story here

proof_humans_cause_AGW

But here is the University of Colorado press release that started it all. Note that in no place in the release do they use the word “proof”.

Arctic Lake Sediment Record Shows Warming, Unique Ecological Changes in Recent Decades

October 19, 2009

An analysis of sediment cores indicates that biological and chemical changes occurring at a remote Arctic lake are unprecedented over the past 200,000 years and likely are the result of human-caused climate change, according to a new study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder.

A University of Colorado at Boulder-led analysis of a 200,000 year-old sediment core from a Baffin Island lake indicates warming temperatures in the Arctic due to human activity are overriding a natural cooling trend in the region. Photo by Jason Briner, University at Buffalo

While environmental changes at the lake over the past millennia have been shown to be tightly linked with natural causes of climate change — like periodic, well-understood wobbles in Earth’s orbit — changes seen in the sediment cores since about 1950 indicate expected climate cooling is being overridden by human activity like greenhouse gas emissions. The research team reconstructed past climate and environmental changes at the lake on Baffin Island using indicators that included algae, fossil insects and geochemistry preserved in sediment cores that extend back 200,000 years.

“The past few decades have been unique in the past 200,000 years in terms of the changes we see in the biology and chemistry recorded in the cores,” said lead study author Yarrow Axford of CU-Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. “We see clear evidence for warming in one of the most remote places on Earth at a time when the Arctic should be cooling because of natural processes.”

The study was published Oct. 19 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The study included researchers from CU-Boulder, the State University of New York’s University at Buffalo, the University of Alberta, the University of Massachusetts and Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario.

The sediment cores were extracted from the bottom of a roughly 100-acre, 30-foot-deep lake near the village of Clyde River on the east coast of Baffin Island, which is several hundred miles west of Greenland. The lake sediment cores go back in time 80,000 years beyond the oldest reliable ice cores from Greenland and capture the environmental conditions of two previous ice ages and three interglacial periods.

The sediment cores showed that several types of mosquito-like midges that flourish in very cold climates have been abundant at the lake for the past several thousand years. But the cold-adapted midge species abruptly began declining in about 1950, matching their lowest abundances of the last 200,000 years. Two of the midge species adapted to the coldest temperatures have completely disappeared from the lake region, said Axford.

In addition, a species of diatom, a lake algae that was relatively rare at the site before the 20th century, has undergone unprecedented increases in recent decades, possibly in response to declining ice cover on the Baffin Island lake.

“Our results show that the human footprint is overpowering long-standing natural processes even in remote Arctic regions,” said co-author John Smol of Queen’s University. “This historical record shows that we are dramatically affecting the ecosystems on which we depend.”

The ancient lake sediment cores are the oldest ever recovered from glaciated parts of Canada or Greenland. Massive ice sheets during ice ages generally scour the underlying bedrock and remove previous sediments.

“What is unique about these sediment cores is that even though glaciers covered this lake, for various reasons they did not erode it,” said study co-author Jason Briner of the University at Buffalo. The result is that we have a really long sequence of sediment that has survived Arctic glaciations.”

Axford emphasized the multiyear research project required expertise from each of the five institutions involved in the PNAS study. “This was a team effort all the way around, and each of the institutions has a unique set of skills that allowed us to carry out this study,” she said. “We needed people who understood algae, insects, glaciers and geochemistry, not to mention how to drive snowmobiles and extract the cores.”

The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Geological Society of America.

A study published in Science magazine last month that involved CU-Boulder researchers and reconstructed past temperatures in the Arctic using ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments concluded that recent warming around the Arctic is overriding a cooling trend caused by Earth’s periodic wobble. Earth is now about 0.6 million miles further from the sun during the Northern Hemisphere summer solstice than it was in 1 B.C. — a trend that has caused overall cooling in the Arctic until recently.

INSTAAR researcher and CU-Boulder geological sciences Professor Gifford Miller was a co-author on both the PNAS study and the recent Science study.


A scientist on a mailing list I subscribe to put it in perspective this way:

1. “several types of mosquito-like midges that for many thousands of years thrived in cold climate surrounding the lake suddenly began declining at around 1950” — Have they accounted for the use of DDT, then? Seems to me that DDT on Baffin Island could have been very popular among trappers and the military in the 50s. Possibly pertinent too:

DDT and its breakdown products are transported from warmer regions of the world to the Arctic by the phenomenon of global distillation, where they then accumulate in the region’s food web
http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/DDT

Thus there might be a human impact on this parameter, but of another kind.

Beyond that, though, if the authors are suggesting that CO2 has caused a mosquito or midge shortage up north, they should consult caribou herds, whose route of wandering is traceable to wind direction, so desperate are these animals to escape the floating bloodsuckers.

In the Canadian Arctic, researchers who bared their arms, legs, and torsos in an experiment reported as many as 9,000 [mosquito] bites per minute.
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Fall02/Mosquitoes.html

Who knows, then? Changing wind patterns and a consequent shift of caribou migration (the supporting host) or DDT usage might account for the decline of midge bodies in this particular study of Ayr Lake. But CO2?

2. “The Earth is now some 600,000 miles (966,000 kilometers) further from the sun during the Northern Hemisphere summer solstice than it was at the time of Jesus Christ” — A sad example of allegation that’s already become a repeated “fact” simply because no one’s bothered to investigate it. I have, and find no indication that this million km claim is true.

– Alan


Just a note on DDT from Wikipedia:

First synthesized in 1874, DDT’s insecticidal properties were not discovered until 1939. In the second half of World War II, it was used with great effect to control mosquitoes spreading malaria and lice transmitting typhus among civilians and troops, resulting in dramatic reductions in the incidence of both diseases. The Swiss chemist Paul Hermann Müller was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1948 “for his discovery of the high efficiency of DDT as a contact poison against several arthropods.” After the war, DDT was made available for use as an agricultural insecticide, and soon its production and use skyrocketed.

Here’ s a 2008 study on DDT in penguins that sums it up pretty well:

POPs (Persistent organic pollutants)  accumulate in the Antarctic and Arctic via repeated cycles of evaporation and condensation as they move poleward through the atmosphere from the tropical and temperate zones where most are released.

Or how about this one:

Seabird Droppings Raising DDT, Mercury Levels in Arctic: Canadian Study

2005 TORONTO (CP) – Seabird droppings are leaving more than a foul mess in the Arctic – they’re contaminating northern lakes and ponds with extremely high levels of mercury and DDT, Canadian researchers have found.

Concentrations of the chemicals were found to be as much as 60 times higher in bodies of water on Devon Island, Nunavut, than in other Arctic areas, says a study to be published Friday in the journal Science.

No, no it couldn’t be DDT killing those midges, it has to be global warming since 1950.

Journalism is dead, science may not be far behind.

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tty

I don’t think it is a matter of mosquitos at all. I have never heard of anyone using mosquitos for paleoclimate. It is much more likely chironomids, i e non-bloodsucking midges, which are excellent temperature indicators.
Press-release science for dummies as usual.

INGSOC

“Journalism is dead, science may not be far behind.”
See; “Science Journalist”
Discovery Canada has a program called “Daily Propaganda” (Er, I mean Daily Planet) Hosted by a loon named Jay (pronounced Jane) Ingram and his sidekick Madame Ziya Tong. Jane replaced David Suzuki as host of a “science” program on the Canadian Broadcorping Castration’s radio one called “Quirks and Quarts”. That gig didn’t afford him the opportunity to smirk visibly, so he went on TV. He even wrote a book once. Madame Tong (formerly of the Gang of Four fame) was seemingly hired for her ability to flounce and giggle, which she does frequently and to great effect. Madame Tong (all hail) recently announced with big round eyes that the Catlin Survey found less ice than can possibly be imagined!, and that things are looking up for an ice free arctic at some point in the distant future.
Did I say that she flounces wonderfully?
I can’t stand it anymore… This is driving me sane.

peter

IF this lake is near a town, did anyone investigate whether the area was sprayed with DDT during it’s heyday to control mosquito populations. When I was a kid aerial spraying for insect control was common, and my area had nothing like the insect problem the far north has.

tokyoboy

So this is another fragile flagstone for paving the way to Copenhagen?

Thanks for posting this Anthony. See my take on it here.
Cheers,
Simon
Australian Climate Madness

tty

I’ve read the full paper now. That press-release is a real work of art. When you read it you would think that it says that the late 20th century warming is unprecedented, no?
Far from it, the chironomids (not mosquitos, please note) indicate that summer water temperatures have risen from 6 to 7.5 degrees centigrade, which is indeed the highest for about 4000 years. However it was as high as 12 degrees during the Holocene optimum 8000-10,000 years ago and during the previous interglacial about 120,000 years ago, and the most sthenoterm chironomids were periodically gone from the lake at those times too.
So what is unprecedented? The diatom species assemblage is different from earlier warm periods. However the reason for this is not difficult to find. Diatoms are very sensitive to pH, and the species composition indicate a current pH just under 6.0, i. e. mildly acid while the pH during earlier warm period has been about or slightly over 7.0, i. e. neutral or very slightly alkaline. Now it is well-known phenomenon at higher latitudes that the environment tends to get more and more acid during the course of an interglacial, as the fresh mineral soils created by glaciations get weathered and humic acids and other acid organics accumulate. During this interglacial this has been exacerbated by human acidification, which may have affected the Canadian Arctic too.
So this is what is unprecedented. During the last interglacial pH didn’t drop this low until cooling into the MIS 5d stadial had already started, and inhibited biological activity in the lake. Now this could very well be due to human influence speeding up acidification, or it could be due to the current interglacial having lasted slightly longer than the last.
And, no Anthony I don’t think DDT has anything to do with this.

Did they allow for lake fertilization from all the “nitrogen pollution” and “sulphate particulates” that are supposed to be falling all over the wilderness? Not that I’d expect that to cause a “bloom” of “lake algae” … /sarcoff>
I want a grant to study the AGW induced fuzzy thinking in people with college degrees. Clearly the warming is causing their brains to curdle…
I’d be interested in knowing if they did any plant nutrient profiles on those lake sediments to show changes over time. Heck, just putting a village near it (“near the village of Clyde River”) can put a load more nutrients into a lake. (What, you’ve never been at a lake drinking beer and needed to, um, er, splash tinkle…)

Began around 1950? Isn’t that when the post-war cooling kicked in? And didn’t that global cooling persist till the late seventies? If these midges could survive the heat of the 1930’s, why would they decline in a known cooler period?

Cassandra King

Its well known that DDT spraying was done all over the north American continent post war, huge quanities were used in Canada near Army/Airforce training bases to eradicate the mosquito plague during the summer months, the Alaska road running from Canada into Alaska that was constructed to bring war materials to the shipping ports had construction bases along its route and they were sprayed with hundreds of tonnes of the stuff.
The research seems to be just another badly made up desperate attempt to provide ammo for the political classes at Copenhagen.
It would be very interesting to see if there was a WW2 camp in the area, even more interesting to gather a sample of the sediment to check for DDT residue/fingerprint, although if the researchers are anything like Mr one tree Briffa it will be years before the samples are made availible.

Julian Flood

The diatom figures are interesting. These little plants are normally, AFAIK, limited by the availability of dissolved silica in the water. If there has been an increased dustfall into the lake — wind change, agricultural changes further off — then silica levels may have been raised.
As they are the primary producers of the ecosystem then I would expect changes at diatom level would propagate up to effect the chironomids. Cart and horse?
No doubt the cores have been preserved for further research. All we need now is someone to devise a test to see if silica levels in the lake changed at the appropriate time. I look forward to the paper.
Incidentally, diatoms use a less discriminatory carbon fixation system so they pull down an unexpectedly large amount of heavy carbon. This means they leave the atmosphere with a low carbon isotope signal which, if you were a naive scientist, you might interpret as the smoking gun of anthropogenic carbon release.
Is there a change in dissolved silica levels in the oceans since 1850?
JF

Christopher Hanley

Not even the IPCC ‘Policymakers’ claim that human greenhouse gases contributed in any way to the global averaged temperature prior to c1950.

Alan the Brit

The DDT arguement is extremely plausible. Mosquitos that survive & thrive in very cold climates? Surely not. It thus contradicts the claim that signs of warming by AGW Eco-Nazis (WGII?) are evidenced by mosquitos & their lavae being found at higher & (therefore colder) altitudes, is utter tosh. Prof Paul Reiter come back all is forgiven. They can’t have it both ways, somebody tell them please!
We here in Disneyla….., err sorry, that should be the UK, are now almost daily being bombarded with this crap from guess who? A fine example of ratchet reporting. Yes that once great national institution that was a beacon to the world for its highest standards of Broadcasting, now sadly somewhere stuck in the mire of mediocraty that is today’s sloppy eco-journalism.
AtB the denier!

royfomr

You want your 15 minutes of fame? Simple. Find something in the biosphere that has experienced a change in the last half-century, liberally sprinkle in magic- dust words like probably, unprecedented, worse than we thought etc, to link with AGW/ACC!
Hey presto- look Ma! That’s me got published again.
Reply: I got a lot older. Does that count? ~ ctm

rbateman

In the Gold Rush to the Klondike and the Yukon in the late 1890’s, malaria struck there too.
My wife was rather miffed when I told her about it, but after she looked it up she understood.
http://canadianhistory.suite101.com/article.cfm/victorian_order_of_nurses_during_yukon_gold_rush
Yes, they have mosquitos for every imaginable climactic condition.

rbateman

A study published in Science magazine last month that involved CU-Boulder researchers and reconstructed past temperatures in the Arctic using ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments concluded that recent warming around the Arctic is overriding a cooling trend caused by Earth’s periodic wobble.
But Baffin Island hasn’t a tree on it. Leanord Nimoy reported that on In Search Of in the 1970’s. Sounds like a job for a Yamal Super Tree.

Konrad

And yet more proof “Proof” that the Australian media is full of AGW believers emotionally unable to report objectively. Despite the venal attempts of the MSM to suppress the news, the collapse of the “science” of AGW will become common knowledge. I wonder what face Virginia Trioli will be pulling then.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26234478-421,00.html

Ron de Haan
tallbloke

tty:
Good informative post, thanks.

Sue

Humans have nothing to do with “plastic soup”, either. I mean, we mesh seamlessly into the environment and everything will fix itself. My dying red oaks on my 2 acres mean nothing, it’s normal. They were seventy years old but that doesn’t mean a thing. And my tulip magnolia is sprouting its spring leaves….six months early, and that must be normal too.
Be sure to delete this. You don’t want to change your mind or learn any science or anything like that. I am wasting my time here.
http://www.oskarlewis.com/weblog/about/plastic-soup

Colin Porter

On a similar theme and only slightly off topic, ITV 1, which is the biggest channel after the BBC in the UK, had a feature on last evening’s news about a massive pipeline which is being built in China to carry water from the south to the drought affected Beijing plane in the north of the country.
Naturally the reason for reporting this project was to highlight how climate change was causing the drought in the region. The article showed a village which had all but been abandoned because all the boreholes were dry. I prefer the explanation from the link below which puts the blame on the demands of imperial Beijing and more especially from the industrialisation and commercialisation of the Beijing plane making much grater demands on the water table. The report even had the temerity to show massive city building projects and then the stupidity to acknowledge that the pipeline project had been in the planning for 50 years. What a climate visionary must Chairman Mao have been!
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/international-news/portfolio/2008/06/16/Chinas-Growing-Drought-Problem/
Perhaps there could be a section on the web site to report journalistic abuse of climate issue stories. It might make journalists think twice before making some of their more outrageous claims.

Patrick Davis

“Ron de Haan (02:41:21) :
Washington Post buries coldest day in 138 years!
http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalwarming.org%2F2009%2F10%2F19%2Fwashpost-buries-coldest-day-in-138-years%2F
Notice how these (Cold) “weather” events are being surreptitiously reported now, along without the usual post a comment feature.

I am just waiting for the Copenhagen Conference to be held in a howling blizzard. Bit silly of them to choose the winter to hold the conference.
.

Robinson

Come on guys, you think that’s bad? I just read an article in The Telegraph stating that toxic algae killed off the Dinosaurs, not a big asteroid or comet. And of course, the research states that:

“This hypothesis gives us cause for concern and underscores the importance of careful and strategic monitoring as we move into an era of global climate change.”
They warn the level of “modern toxin-producing algae is presently increasing, and their geographic distribution is expanding….”
Mr Rodgers added: “Scientists from around the world have been sending us data that support our hypothesis and our concern about the future.
“I look forward to the debate this work will generate. I hope it helps focus attention on climate change and the consequences we may face.”

anna v

I know that clouds of mosquitoes appear in the forests of Finnland, even though they are over permafrost , the minute there is some heat. I was there a June 21st.
OT but there were teams with red cross badges combing this forest for fallen down drunk people from the celebration of the longest day. They piled them like logs in a shed. If they were left on the ground, because of the permafrost, they would die.

Espen

There’s a long-running GISS station at Clyde which shows a slight downward trend from the 50s until the 90s:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=403710900006&data_set=0&num_neighbors=1
(I chose the version where you see all the station changes, I guess the most recent station is at the small airport…)
Across the strait, Greenland’s Nuuk was warmer in the 30s and 40s than from the 50s:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=431042500000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1

anna v

“Proof” that media is hyping AGW shamelessly”
It is enevitable, there are too many billions riding on AGW becoming law. The economic inertia is too large for facts to stop it, unless it is something huge, like the Thames freezing over . (or the reality of a long term economic depression)

Espen

Sue: ‘Humans have nothing to do with “plastic soup”, either.’
Of course they have. That’s a real pollution issue. One of my main concerns with the CO2 mania is that if it turns out that the speculative claims of global warming disaster were wrong, it may severely damage future work to protect our environment from real dangers (and also severely damage the esteem of science, especially environmental studies).

RexAlan

Hey Ralph,
My feelings too. Copenhagen airport icebound. Please God!

Konrad

Sue (02:52:40)
You are not necessarily wasting your time here. Are humans responsible for “plastic soup”? Absolutely. Massive aerosol particulate pollution in the developing world? Certainly. Should we be using fossil fuels in the wasteful way we do at present? Probably not. I feel it would be reasonable to claim that most people posting at this site are opposed to pollution, they just do not agree that CO2 is in any way a dangerous pollutant. The empirical evidence for the AGW hypothesis simply does not exist.
The question you might ask yourself is why a non car owning environmentally conscious person like myself would be a CO2 skeptic. One answer is that I am afraid the baby is going to be thrown out with the bath water. What do you think is going to happen to the environmental movement when the hoax of AGW becomes common knowledge? I think many people posting at this site know that the longer it takes for those supporting the AGW hoax to admit error, the worse the damage to the environmental movement and science is going to be.

>>Sue (02:52:40) :
>>>Humans have nothing to do with “plastic soup”, either. I mean,
>>>we mesh seamlessly into the environment and everything will fix itself.
Sue. If you want to reduce the pressure on the environment from human populations, then you need to reduce the number of humans in each country and on the planet in general.
But the Green movement “”has never and will never campaign on population issues”” as Greenpeace has informed me.
Instead we get unlimited immigration and no effort whatsoever to prevent Third World overpopulation. The West, without immigration, would be naturally reducing its population right now, to more sustainable levels. But no, the Greens and most Left-leaning governments do not want this at all, and Britain’s population is now at record levels.
So the Greens will not tackle the one primary issue affecting the environment. And if they will not do that, then how can we take them seriously on any other issue?
.

DHMO

Hi Konrad
I don’t know if you are Australian but I am. Our public broadcaster here is very pro AGW. Do you think it is worse than the rest of the world? We have a journalist on it called Tony Jones. He did his utmost to discredit TGGWS by attacking Durkin’s creditability. Another great intellect is a science reporter called Robin Williams but he is also a joke. He reckons the sea will rise a 100 metres soon.

jon

From: http://www.pinetreeline.org/misc/other/misc16c.html
In 1953, like all other bases and sites in Newfoundland and Labrador, Ernest Harmon became a part of the Northeast Air Command. Its mission was to participate in the supply and servicing of all US Installations in NEAC, including American bases in Greenland and Baffin Island. Ernest Harmon retained its importance as the first major overseas stop for military aircraft flying the North Atlantic to Greenland, England and Europe. The Strategic Air Command (SAC) operated out of Harmon from 1953 to 1958.
Here is her paper: http://rintintin.colorado.edu/~axford/axford_et_al_QR_2009_CF8.pdf

jon

These are the locations of the US bases in Baffin Island:
http://www.pinetreeline.org/maps/frobis3.jpg

We just posted information about another high North Canadian lake 2009 study that found Medieval Warming higher than current temps.
Can be found here:
http://www.c3headlines.com/
C3H Editor

Vincent

Funny thing, as soon as I started reading this article, I thought “DDT”. Then Anthony, mentioned it at the bottom.
Really, are they seriously expecting anyone to believe that the arctic is warmer now than at any time in the last 200,000 years? Utter tosh!
The only serious note to come out of the whole report, is their claim that the earth is in a cooling trend that we humans have interrupted. Hmm. Cooling = Bad. Interrupted Cooling = Good.

jon

One more: This is from the USAF documents (1955) http://www.pinetreeline.org/other/other17/other17p.html
“An evaluation of the insect control problem, mainly that of mosquito control, was accomplished in June. Areas away from the site were treated with an oil surface layer and the areas in the immediate vicinity of the site were sprayed with DDT. These areas were kept under strict surveillance. Further, screen doors were installed on outside entrances to the mess hall and the garbage loading dock was sprayed daily.”

Rhys Jaggar

Rules of scientific publishing:
1. Always amplify the differences – start by making sure the start of the y-axis is not zero. It makes a 5% change look like a 50% change.
2. Always amplify the interpretations.
3. Highlight the need for further research.
4. Butter up all your colleagues who will also be looking for further research funding and especially those who sit on the committees that dole it out.
5. Get your institution publicity by attracting the interests of journalists.
6. Seek to influence Government policy to attract long-term stable funding to your research area.
You’ll note that none of those are compatible with the conclusion: there’s nothing really wrong, so we don’t need to spend so much money on this any more.

jon

p.s. the study was not based on mosquitoes … she was looking at chironomids.

Richard111

Ah, well. I’m sure somebody got a bonus anyway.
(Copenhagen 48 days and counting)

Tom in Florida

Sue (02:52:40) : “Humans have nothing to do with “plastic soup”, either. I mean, we mesh seamlessly into the environment and everything will fix itself”
Sue, you have just confirmed why many sceptics, such as myself, take the position that the spending of billions of dollars to try to influence climate are wasted when they would be better spent on real pollution problems. That is the tragedy of the AGW scare. But then fixing the environment is not the real intention of the green movement, it’s economic and political control.

Bruce Cobb

“Sue” said:
Humans have nothing to do with “plastic soup”, either. I mean, we mesh seamlessly into the environment and everything will fix itself. My dying red oaks on my 2 acres mean nothing, it’s normal. They were seventy years old but that doesn’t mean a thing. And my tulip magnolia is sprouting its spring leaves….six months early, and that must be normal too.
Be sure to delete this. You don’t want to change your mind or learn any science or anything like that. I am wasting my time here.

What does “plastic soup” (undoubtedly a very real issue, unlike manmade warming), dying red oaks and tulip magnolias supposedly sprouting 6 months early have to do with the topic at hand? Absolutely nothing, of course. It was nothing but an emotional outburst by someone who clearly has no interest in science, or of learning anything, and who is indeed just “wasting her time here.”
Yes, Sue, we know man affects the environment, and real pollution (which doesn’t include C02) is an important issue. If you really cared about the environment though, you would see that it is wealth that is the friend of the environment, while poverty is the enemy. Punishing C02, a completely beneficial gas is the way to decreased wealth, and to increased poverty. But you don’t want to hear that, do you, having already made up your mind and all?

Vincent

“I have, and find no indication that this million km claim is true.”
Not sure about that Anthony. The values I have for perihelion and aphelion are
aphelion distance = 94,511,989m
perihelion = 91,405,436m
———
3,107,553 miles
If the solstice moves with the earth’s precession which makes a complete cycle in 24,000 years, then in 12,000 the winter solstice would be at the opposite end of the orbit. 2,000 years is 1 sixth of this. 1 sixth of the difference between perihelion and aphelion is about 520,000 miles. Of course, the distance doesn’t change linearly but I would say their figure of 600,000 miles is roughly in the ballpark I would expect.

michel

tty, many thanks. Very informative post.

We see clear evidence for warming in one of the most remote places on Earth at a time when the Arctic should be cooling because of natural processes.”
But the arctic was cooling in ~1950 – at ~0.3 deg per decade according to GISS. It carried on cooling for the next 2 decades.
They’ve not really thought this through have they?

Arthur Glass

“I know that clouds of mosquitoes appear in the forests of Finnland, even though they are over permafrost , the minute there is some heat. I was there a June 21st.”
Sounds very much like the woods outside of Fairbanks, AK in the middle of June. I remember Jersey mosquitos fifty years ago. Q: What is the state bird of New Jersey? A. The mosquito.
But the classic Meadowlands Anopheles was a wimp compared to his Yukon valley cousin on steroids.

Arthur Glass

I await correction on this sentiment, but simply from the viewpoint of evolutionary biology, wouldn’t an increase in the numbers of a species, e.g. homo sapiens, be a sign of success?

hunter

As has been pointed out before, bad theories like AGW act to lower the intelligence of its believers.
This study is a perfect example of the credulity and lack of critical thinking characteristic of faith based beliefs.

hunter

Sue,
Does plastic mean AGW hysteria is true?
Has one person here denied plastic soup?
If we were not wasting so many billions on AGW, we could be resolving real problems.
AGW policies make real environmental problems worse.
That is only one of the many negatives the current obsession with incorrect climate models causes.

John

I think tty (00:57:38) has it as right as I can understand this issue right now. Regarding DDT, while it is definitely true that DDT can end up in the Arctic — volatilized in the warmest climates, it is carried in the atmosphere until the cold of the Arctic reconverts it to a solid, where it falls — the amounts aren’t nearly enough to actually inhibit mosquitos, I wouldn’t think. Midges, as several have pointed out, aren’t mosquitos, but I doubt it would be any different for them. The DDT is in trace amounts.
It does seem possible that Baffin Island has warmed since 1950. However, given the many ways and cases in which the official science world has changed into a publicity machine for global warming, violently trashing those who, like Roger Pielke Jr., publish excellent science that turns out to be correct but which doesn’t fit the narrative, I cannot take the stated implications of an article like this at face value. I need replication, especially by those without an axe to grind. That is why I value tty’s post — he suggests a reasonable alternative that the scientists may not be aware of, than acidity drops as an interglacial lengthens.
He also suggest that perhaps acidity from CO2 — in a small, shallow lake, not an ocean which can dilute the CO2 — might have contributed to the acidity, thus making it more hospitable to the diatoms (and less so for the midges??? tty?). Suppose that in a small lake this is the case — then it isn’t the warming that is at fault.
Yet, tty does indicate that summer water temps are the highest they have been in 4,000 years. That would mean higher than the MWP. This might indicate generalized Arctic warming, or it could have something to do with local conditions, which might include the relative intensity of modern settlement in some way.
I’d like to hear tty again on this, if he has more to say.

Bob H.

If algae has increased, couldn’t that be in response to an increase in CO2??? Of course it doesn’t mean MAN is the cause of the rising CO2, but it would be a natural response of the algae, just like all the other trees and plants responding to increased CO2. Correlation does not prove causation…