September 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.42 deg. C
October 7th, 2009 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 9 +0.424 +0.554 +0.295 +0.516
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly in September 2009 rebounded again, from +0.23 deg. C in August to +0.42 deg. C in September. The tropics and Northern Hemisphere continue to dominate the signal.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we are still working on switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data. We have added the global sea surface temperature anomalies from the AMSR-E instrument on board the NASA Aqua satellite, computed from files at Remote Sensing Systems, although we are still not done adjusting the display range of those data.
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RSS: update
RSS for September 2009 is: +0.48 °C
The rank is #2 out of 31 Septembers of data.
Source: RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa)
RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.2)
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AS a new born denier I will always believe UHA data over the likes of Giss or hadcrut (remember the warmistas never liked UHA now its there new found standard because its rocketing up and up hahah) BTW this is pretty extraordinary
http://wxmaps.org/pix/clim.html
click on NH temps (USA, Canada, South America) this picture has been pretty much constant fo 16 months now. In contrast parts of Asia/russia way above anomaly. On wonders if in reality Svensmark’s theory is not being proved In Vivo. BTW expect UHA to decline back to norm soon and then dive to Maunder type data by 1-2 years…. Cloudiness and rain/low temps in Southern South america has been a constant for years now wonder if increase in SH20% ice is flogging those cold fronts a bit further with more strenght?
Had a warm Sept. here in NE Oregon,some records broke, but.We’ve had a bunch of low records too, and quite recently.Now we have a pattern set up that if it was January,
we’d be below zero.As it is,my tomatoes have had it.If there be warming,it is now gone…
Yes definitely AGW is causing this, we is totally convinced now…
“Midwest Mark (09:51:47) :
I’m surprised, judging from the temperatures we’ve had in this region for the year. I realize that this is completely anecdotal, but much of the Midwest experienced a record cold July, followed by an average August, and a slightly cooler-than-normal September. Presently, October is running much cooler than average. In central Ohio we’ve already had a hard frost–about two weeks ahead of the average. And the long-range forecast for the area is predicting increased cooling next week. I would have guessed that global temperatures flattened in September.”
Completely anecdotal, yes. But try selling AGW around the Chicago area and it won’t fly. This really was the year without summer !!!
Interesting. NOAA predicts that the currently weak El Nino will strengthen. Joe Bastardi of Accuweather predicts it will weaken further. Place your bets.
Andrew, I’m not a great fan of how Rutgers plots the anomalies, so here’s one by season, square km and miles, with just the straight numbers. Next update in December when the Sep/Oct/Nov period is complete. Got a bunch of them per region as well. Eurasia shows steepest decline. NA, less Greenland only the JJA period, hence the North Americans biggest in denial… all those extended snow off days not helping to keep the permafrost in order.
As for melt in winter, well, certainly both February and March Extent means for 2009 were below 2008. Call that cooling ;>)
How do they get a world average?
mrpkw (11:38:24) :
That’s what they’ve been saying about Ohio as well. It was a great relief for our air conditioning bill, but overall it was extremely odd. Most nights in July dipped into the 50s. That’s simply unheard of. And temperatures continue to run cooler than normal. I don’t care what they’re saying…I’m bracing for an extra cold winter this year.
In New Zealand’s South Island we had a mainly warm and dry August and early September. However, last weekend saw a brief snowfall in the south. A number of roads were closed. Not unprecedented, but unusual.
Parts of the North Island had a very large snow dump with, literally, hundreds of stranded motorists having to be rescued by the Army and billeted in church halls, marae and the like for up to a couple of days. Heavy snow in parts of the High Country has led to significant lamb losses in some areas. This is not usual, either, but it can happen; the amount of snow is certainly unusual.
The forecast for this weekend is for more snow, caused again by a deep depression pulling very cold air up from the southern ice, which is at record levels.
Winter started very early in May and many cold records were set. Now it seems to be back, well into Spring. Rev your engines – do it for the lambs.
FWIW, it’s been quite a hot September here in Uzbekistan, (i’m here for my job), although its finally cooling off now. It doesn’t take too many large non-moving highs over asia to bump the temps up a bit.
What I don’t get is how global average temps can vary for the whole world by so much in one month. That’s a lot of heat to dissapate or accrue…
It’s just weather or it’s worse than we thought, depending on your bias.
I’m hoping for a good ski season :).
(sigh….) here we go…..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/485?&search=saskatoon&itemsPerPage=10®ion=world
It would be just fine if we had some hills here to ski on 🙂
Also the artic temps are amazingly high at the moment
– so the question is, how high does it need to get before people here get converted to AGW?
Bob Shapiro (10:46:13) : Even number moving averages can’t be properly centered.
Oh crud, miss spelled my email address. My comment, just in case, was:
Bob Shapiro (10:46:13) : Even number moving averages can’t be properly centered.
A little weather humor:
Forecast for the Phillies at the Rockies…Saturday 7:30pm mountain time:
Saturday, Oct 10
High: 36 °F RealFeel®: 26 °F
Windy and colder with a thick cloud cover
Saturday Night, Oct 10
Low: 22 °F RealFeel®: 14 °F
A couple of flurries in the evening; otherwise, cloudy with record-tying temperatures
http://www.accuweather.com/us/co/denver/80201/forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&metric=0
Hmmm…”record-tying temperatures” I don’t think they mean record HIGH
Purakanui,
It snowed while I was in the outdoor hot pools at Hanmer this last weekend. Lots of fun for the kids.
There seems to be slightly more than the ususal amount of snow (for this time of year) on the mountains west of the (Southern Alps) main divide. Not unprecidented but still worth noting.
Regarding current El Nino trends…
Some interesting things going on…
Near the end of September there was a strong westerly wind burst in the central Pacific between 140E and 160E.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/850u_tlon.shtml
(Also note that trade winds across much of the central Pacific have weakened considerably since 01 October.)
These types of bursts initiate Kelvin waves that propagate eastward along the equator and lead to net warming of subsurface temps which eventually reach the surface near South America. These “burst-induced” Kelvin waves are important for the initiation/intensification of El Nino.
The subsurface warming from this recent burst is very clearly seen from the real time longitude-depths plots produced by the ECMWF.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ocean/real_time/xzmaps
(display earlier dates to see the eastward progression and expansion of the positive subsurface anomalies in the central Pacific.)
So, based on the most recent trends, I think we can expect El Nino to crank up a bit in the next couple months. In addition, based on the absence of cool subsurface anomalies in the Pacific, a return to La Nina anytime soon is highly unlikely. Actually, one of the modeling systems used by NOAA maintains the El Nino past July 2010!
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/PDFcr_nino34SSTMon.gif
An El Nino lasting that long wouldn’t be completely unprecedented (the late 1980s El Nino lasted two years), but those forecast lead times are well beyond the range that these models have any seasonal forecast skill.
Thank you Dr. Spencer for providing real data. Its a breath of fresh air in this whole mess.
I look at the Arctic temps like what Phil pointed out and they haven’t gone down at all since the beginning of the month, though there is the chance the sensor(s) may have drifted too.
I wouldn’t say this is proof of AGW, but if it keeps like this all month, the AGW aligned scientists can use that to make a massive hockeystick for October and tell us we’re all going to die in 10 years.
Why ’79 to ’98 as an average base line?
Also, check out this map to look at the forecast for Siberia for today and the next 5 days.
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Maximum.aspx?location=RSXX0303
Notice that colder areas near or below freezing starts showing through the rest of Siberia over to the scandinavian peninsula .
The NAM is projecting record-breaking cold across the Central Plains this weekend and into next week. Looking at breaking old records by 4-10 degrees F.
Adam (12:45:26):
So, based on the most recent trends, I think we can expect El Nino to crank up a bit in the next couple months. In addition, based on the absence of cool subsurface anomalies in the Pacific, a return to La Nina anytime soon is highly unlikely. Actually, one of the modeling systems used by NOAA maintains the El Nino past July 2010!
Hi Adam… At 25º 48´ North latitude and 100º 19′ West longitude, we are undergoing very normal El Niño effects: rainy and hot days. We are not expecting a cold winter, except for two to seven cold days during the season. The two last weeks we have had mild temperatures with maximum temperatures of 32 °C – 35 °C by the last week.
Phil (12:29:25) : Also the artic temps are amazingly high at the moment – so the question is, how high does it need to get before people here get converted to AGW?
I think it has a way to go as yet. First we have to reach the warmth of the MWP then the even warmer holocene “optimum”. The artic temps being “amazingly high” “at the moment” does not, even momentarily, the AGW make.
Are you a convert? or one of the high priests? Do you recommend we all go and bask in those “amazingly high” temperatures cause its pretty cold here?