From CNN An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.9 struck in the Samoan Islands region Tuesday, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
The temblor generated a nearly 10-foot (3-meter) tsunami — measured from crest to trough — according to preliminary data, said Chip McCreery, the director of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach, Hawaii.
BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
857 AM HST TUE SEP 29 2009
TO – CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT – TSUNAMI WATCH SUPPLEMENT
A TSUNAMI WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
NOTE MOMENT MAGNITUDE INCREASE TO 8.3
ORIGIN TIME – 0748 AM HST 29 SEP 2009
COORDINATES – 15.3 SOUTH 171.0 WEST
LOCATION – SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE – 8.3 MOMENT
MAGNITUDE – 8.0 RICHTER (MS)
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
——————- —– —— —– ————— —–
APIA UPOLU WS 13.8S 171.8W 1832Z 0.70M / 2.3FT 08MIN
PAGO PAGO AS 14.3S 170.7W 1812Z 1.57M / 5.1FT 04MIN
LAT – LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON – LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME – TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER – PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
EVALUATION
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE
IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF
THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
0111 PM HST TUE 29 SEP 2009
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
h/t to Hotrod “Larry”
Who is being blamed for this?
Seriously, I will examine the ring of fire. There is a lot of Pacific rim tectonic plate activity. These events also can cause vents to heat water.
Tourists still lollygagging on the beach at Waikiki:
http://www.honolulu.gov/multimed/waikiki.asp
Reply: Well, they still have over three hours ~ ctm
I think the DTG should be 0111HST on 30 Sept. Otherwise it is an exceptionally fast wave. Where is the sarcasm tab?
Tim
Wooo… 😮
Disregard. I see they meant PM.
Tim
speed of a tsunami is given by
c = sqrt(G * d)
where G is the gravitational constant 9.8 m/sec^2 and
d is ocean depth in meters.
In the deep ocean, the typical water depth is around 4000 m, so a tsunami will therefore travel at around 200 m/s, or more than 700 km/hr.
http://www.bom.gov.au/info/tsunami/tsunami_info.shtml
Larry
A Tsunami Warming for Hawaii only?
click: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
and see what other coasts are threatened.
warming = warning (sorry for the typo)
UPGRADED to an 8.3 by the LISS server team. Looking at the LISS strips, I’d definitely say (from years of watching the world’s earthquakes BTW) that it was no 7.9. The whole globe is presently “ringing”, just as with the 9.x at Banda Aceh.
However, the size of the seism, coupled with the distance, doesn’t bode for a very large tsunami in Hawaii. Maybe a foot or two. No significant underwater focussing aspects, and a great wide ocean over which to radiate and dissipate.
When it first came out the Tsunami warning center was getting pounded and attempts to download the alerts from :
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/
Were all timing out, I finally got the alert for Hawaii and the upgrade of intensity to 8.3 to load so that is only a representative alert of those available, so Anthony could get the lat long info and timing.
There are certainly other coast lines at risk as any coast in the Pacific basin could be effected to some degree depending on its distance from the epicenter and local sea floor profiles.
Larry
Why is it, that this fine site, providing the incredibly important work of Steve McIntyre debunking the JUNK science of Michael Mann and the other HACKS at the IPCC, is being POLLUTED my these adds ??????
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REPLY:I hear you, but I don’t have a lot of control over Google Adsense insertion, which inserted based on keywords and topics.
There’s a silver lining though.
Look at it this way, every time you click on one of those ads, it costs those people pushing those messages money and gives a few cents to WUWT. Thanks for your consideration. -Anthony
Response time at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/
Is getting better now:
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1856Z 29 SEP 2009
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS…EXCEPT ALASKA…BRITISH COLUMBIA…
WASHINGTON…OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.
… A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT …
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
AMERICAN SAMOA / SAMOA / NIUE / WALLIS-FUTUNA / TOKELAU /
COOK ISLANDS / TONGA / TUVALU / KIRIBATI / KERMADEC IS / FIJI /
HOWLAND-BAKER / JARVIS IS. / NEW ZEALAND / FR. POLYNESIA /
PALMYRA IS. / VANUATU / NAURU / MARSHALL IS. / SOLOMON IS.
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
JOHNSTON IS. / NEW CALEDONIA / KOSRAE / PAPUA NEW GUINEA /
HAWAII / POHNPEI / WAKE IS. / PITCAIRN / MIDWAY IS. / CHUUK /
AUSTRALIA
FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN… IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
NOTE THE MAGNITUDE UPGRADE TO 8.3
ORIGIN TIME – 1748Z 29 SEP 2009
COORDINATES – 15.3 SOUTH 171.0 WEST
DEPTH – 33 KM
LOCATION – SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE – 8.3
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
——————- —– —— —– ————— —–
APIA UPOLU WS 13.8S 171.8W 1832Z 0.70M / 2.3FT 08MIN
PAGO PAGO AS 14.3S 170.7W 1812Z 1.57M / 5.1FT 04MIN
LAT – LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON – LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME – TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER – PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
EVALUATION
SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.
FOR ALL AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
——————————– ———— ————
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO PAGO 14.3S 170.7W 1759Z 29 SEP
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 171.8W 1810Z 29 SEP
NIUE NIUE IS. 19.0S 170.0W 1822Z 29 SEP
WALLIS-FUTUNA WALLIS IS. 13.2S 176.2W 1835Z 29 SEP
TOKELAU NUKUNONU IS. 9.2S 171.8W 1844Z 29 SEP
COOK ISLANDS PUKAPUKA IS. 10.8S 165.9W 1846Z 29 SEP
RAROTONGA 21.2S 159.8W 1929Z 29 SEP
PENRYN IS. 8.9S 157.8W 1954Z 29 SEP
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 175.2W 1851Z 29 SEP
TUVALU FUNAFUTI IS. 7.9S 178.5E 1932Z 29 SEP
KIRIBATI KANTON IS. 2.8S 171.7W 1935Z 29 SEP
FLINT IS. 11.4S 151.8W 2025Z 29 SEP
MALDEN IS. 3.9S 154.9W 2037Z 29 SEP
CHRISTMAS IS. 2.0N 157.5W 2100Z 29 SEP
TARAWA IS. 1.5N 173.0E 2104Z 29 SEP
KERMADEC IS RAOUL IS. 29.2S 177.9W 1938Z 29 SEP
FIJI SUVA 18.1S 178.4E 2003Z 29 SEP
HOWLAND-BAKER HOWLAND IS. 0.6N 176.6W 2008Z 29 SEP
JARVIS IS. JARVIS IS. 0.4S 160.1W 2028Z 29 SEP
NEW ZEALAND EAST CAPE 37.7S 178.5E 2044Z 29 SEP
GISBORNE 38.7S 178.0E 2100Z 29 SEP
NORTH CAPE 34.4S 173.3E 2112Z 29 SEP
NAPIER 39.5S 176.9E 2140Z 29 SEP
WELLINGTON 41.3S 174.8E 2150Z 29 SEP
AUCKLAND(E) 36.7S 175.0E 2212Z 29 SEP
AUCKLAND(W) 37.1S 174.2E 2239Z 29 SEP
LYTTELTON 43.6S 172.7E 2255Z 29 SEP
NEW PLYMOUTH 39.1S 174.1E 2317Z 29 SEP
NELSON 41.3S 173.3E 2323Z 29 SEP
DUNEDIN 45.9S 170.5E 2331Z 29 SEP
MILFORD SOUND 44.6S 167.9E 2358Z 29 SEP
WESTPORT 41.8S 171.6E 2359Z 29 SEP
BLUFF 46.6S 168.3E 0044Z 30 SEP
FR. POLYNESIA PAPEETE 17.5S 149.6W 2045Z 29 SEP
HIVA OA 10.0S 139.0W 2214Z 29 SEP
RIKITEA 23.1S 135.0W 2247Z 29 SEP
PALMYRA IS. PALMYRA IS. 6.3N 162.4W 2102Z 29 SEP
VANUATU ANATOM IS. 20.2S 169.9E 2117Z 29 SEP
ESPERITU SANTO 15.1S 167.3E 2123Z 29 SEP
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 2138Z 29 SEP
MARSHALL IS. MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 2147Z 29 SEP
KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 2220Z 29 SEP
ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 2309Z 29 SEP
SOLOMON IS. KIRAKIRA 10.4S 161.9E 2155Z 29 SEP
GHATERE 7.8S 159.2E 2227Z 29 SEP
AUKI 8.8S 160.6E 2244Z 29 SEP
HONIARA 9.3S 160.0E 2244Z 29 SEP
PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 2245Z 29 SEP
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 2248Z 29 SEP
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 2304Z 29 SEP
JOHNSTON IS. JOHNSTON IS. 16.7N 169.5W 2212Z 29 SEP
NEW CALEDONIA NOUMEA 22.3S 166.5E 2216Z 29 SEP
KOSRAE KOSRAE IS. 5.5N 163.0E 2233Z 29 SEP
PAPUA NEW GUINE KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 2303Z 29 SEP
AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 2323Z 29 SEP
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 2349Z 29 SEP
LAE 6.8S 147.0E 0015Z 30 SEP
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 0016Z 30 SEP
PORT MORESBY 9.3S 146.9E 0039Z 30 SEP
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 0041Z 30 SEP
MANUS IS. 2.0S 147.5E 0050Z 30 SEP
HAWAII NAWILIWILI 22.0N 159.4W 2311Z 29 SEP
HILO 19.7N 155.1W 2314Z 29 SEP
HONOLULU 21.3N 157.9W 2315Z 29 SEP
POHNPEI POHNPEI IS. 7.0N 158.2E 2318Z 29 SEP
WAKE IS. WAKE IS. 19.3N 166.6E 2322Z 29 SEP
PITCAIRN PITCAIRN IS. 25.1S 130.1W 2329Z 29 SEP
MIDWAY IS. MIDWAY IS. 28.2N 177.4W 2349Z 29 SEP
CHUUK CHUUK IS. 7.4N 151.8E 0020Z 30 SEP
AUSTRALIA BRISBANE 27.2S 153.3E 0036Z 30 SEP
SYDNEY 33.9S 151.4E 0038Z 30 SEP
BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA…BRITISH COLUMBIA…WASHINGTON…OREGON…CALIFORNIA.
Larry
Why does it take the same amount of time to get to Australia (closer to the epicenter) than Hawaii?
Maybe I’m missing something, but as of when I’m posting this I’ve not seen any warning for Hawaii, just a watch. NZ and other areas are getting a warning.
Typical, first they say it’s a 7.9, and now they change it to an 8.3.
These scientists always fudging their data. What is the ‘correct’ value going to be?
Hope everyone affected gets to a safe spot.
In what scale are the waves being blocked by land mass? importend question. Because the waves could be blocked by samoa and there for not going to hawaii.
These folks:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009mdbi.php
put it an at 8.0 for now. There is also a nice global map showing the aftershocks (5.6, 5.8) at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
FWIW, the global quake graphic alone can be grabbed at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/world_moll/world_moll.gif
And a saved copy can be embedded in pages…
Isn’t Survivor going on at Samoa right now?
Tim Trice (13:22:42) :
Much shallower water on way to Aus.
jeroen (13:46:49)
Not ‘blocked” at all to Hawaii. Samoa not on direct line and MUCH too small to do blocking of such a long wave-length.
I’m going to go to an unsafe location in Waitemata harbour to observe. I predict undetectable effect.
The quake world graphic-only is at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/world_moll/world_moll.gif
Weather, not climate.
There are already victims… http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8281616.stm
Why the temperature does not show in the wave propagation equation above?
Ray (14:18:03) :
Why the temperature does not show in the wave propagation equation above?
Maybe because the density of water doesn’t change significantly? Just a guess. Viscosity is also irrelevant for water gravity waves with wave-lengths so long.
Ryan C (13:56:53) :
Isn’t Survivor going on at Samoa right now?
Yep.
Anthony… Senate Bill calls for stronger cuts in emissions than House bill.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-climate30-2009sep30,0,128921.story
Can they really pass crap like this when a majority of Americans really don’t agree?
“Isn’t Survivor going on at Samoa right now?”
“yep”
Just not in the way that they had envisioned.
Reporting 400 mm or 16 inches in NZ
GoatGuy (13:05:57) :
UPGRADED to an 8.3 by the LISS server team. Looking at the LISS strips, I’d definitely say (from years of watching the world’s earthquakes BTW) that it was no 7.9. The whole globe is presently “ringing”, just as with the 9.x at Banda Aceh.
However, the size of the seism, coupled with the distance, doesn’t bode for a very large tsunami in Hawaii. Maybe a foot or two. No significant underwater focussing aspects, and a great wide ocean over which to radiate and dissipate.
Those factors didn’t prevent the Hilo tsunami in 1960 from causing fatalities!
Jeremy (14:36:27) :
“Anthony… Senate Bill calls for stronger cuts in emissions than House bill.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-climate30-2009sep30,0,128921.story
Can they really pass crap like this when a majority of Americans really don’t agree?”
Jeremy, it’s a Senate Bill and I don’t think it will make it.
But don’t take any risk, keep calling those Senators and send them all the (F) Documents that have emerged lately.
Our case is getting stronger by the day.
The more outright lies the Media put out, the weaker their basis will be.
In a discussion to day we had the paper articles about melting Arctic and melting Antarctic at hand.
I only showed the current sea ice extent graphs to make the convincing argument.
Facts don’t lie and lies never become facts.
Some might notice that New Zealand with a population of over twice that of Hawaii is much closer to the earthquake and has also been given a warning, but headlines here are Hawaii (New Zealand is a country in the South Pacific).
Tsunami watch for Hawaii has been canceled .
Tsunami warning it out for the city I live in, I will be watching from the window keenly to see if anything happens (view of coastal flats below) but I have predicted nothing will happen!
OT
Increased solar brightness and warming of the Earth since 1979
The sun may have increased in brightness over the last couple of decades as summarized in the following press release:
Researcher Finds Solar Trend That Can Warm Climate
Ends debate over whether sun can play a role in climate change
[snip, dude just post a link mkay? ~ctm]
http://www.warwickhughes.com/hoyt/solar.htm
Just heard the update from NOAA on NPR. Downgraded to advisory; stay outta the water ’til this evening. Guess I’ll be able to finish my luau stew with lomi salmon.
There seems to be some confusion about the terms “watch” and “warning”. I believe these terms are defined the same as in the meteorological world, that is a “watch” means that conditions are favourable for the event to occur, but it hasn’t happened yet. A “warming” means that the event has been observed and may be on it’s way to your location.
The tsunami only measured 20cm by the time it hit us in New Zealand.
Earthquake uprated to 8.3 though – and Samoa sounds like it has been hit very hard. Fingers crossed there hasn’t been too much destruction.
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/bigmap/index.phtml is worthwhile following on a daily basis as it illustrates seismic activity worldwide. Computer models that could accurately predict earthquakes would be a much better financial investment for humanity than wasting billions trying to hoodwink us with CO2 nonsense.
400 mm in 3 hours, so at this rate NZ will be under 100 m in 31.25 days!
It is quite big for Samoans…… http://www.abc.net.au/news/
RE: AnonyMoose
Love those linear projections….
The first time I opened the Yellow Pages in Honolulu and read the Civil Defense instructions I was amazed at how much planning had been done. Then early one morning in 1992 we got the hurricane warning for Iniki and headed for high ground and I was grateful.
Much better to have the emergency preps done and not to need them, than the other way around.
A tip of the hat to all Civil Defense and Emergency Response folks. Most of us have no idea how much we might need you.
Halfwise, in Hawaii tsunamis are the most dangerous natural disaster.
http://www.pdc.org/iweb/tsunami_history.jsp
Wonder how much the earthquake warmed the water in the area?
F Rasmin (15:25:28) :
Some might notice that New Zealand with a population of over twice that of Hawaii is much closer to the earthquake and has also been given a warning, but headlines here are Hawaii (New Zealand is a country in the South Pacific).
CNN(American)+Geography=FAIL
Now. 7.6 Mag off Padang, West Sumatera Indonesia. Large buildings down, communication lost with the city. Fires Raging. In progress as we write this.
Huffpo says its global warming
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/wade-norris/climate-change-whole-lot_b_303677.html
The big flipside, particularly evident in Thomas-Rasset, is that the legal mechanisms appear to be in place now for corporate copyright holders to exercise a power way beyond the spirit of the rights they are defending, and possibly even against the interests of their own artists if anger against their policies continues and spreads. ,