Those that have been watching the IARC-JAXA Arctic sea ice plot, and noting the slope of gain, rather expected this to happen. Today it did.
Here’s the current IARC-JAXA Sea Ice Extent plot:
source: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
And here is the plot magnified and annotated to show the crossing:
While 2009 minimum on 09/13 of 5,249, 844 was just 65, 312 sq km below 2005 in minimum extent, which occurred on 9/22/2005 with 5,315,156 sq km, it has now rebounded quickly and is higher by 38,438 sq km, just 2 days before the 9/22/05 minimum. On 9/22/2009 it may very well be close to 60-80,000 sq km higher than the minimum on the same date in 2005.
While by itself this event isn’t all that significant, it does illustrate the continued rebound for the second year. The fact that we only missed the 2005 minimum by 65, 312, which is about one days worth of melt during many days of the melt season is also noteworthy.
Mudmucker,
I refuse to believe that you are an ME, if for no other reason, than you believe that we will get 30% from the wind.
Unlike you, I actually am an ME, and like ALL MEs, i can tell you that wind is not economically attractive, just socially attractive to those who believe in free lunches.
Even T Boone has put his wind farms on hold, without big government cash infusions or mandates, wind simply isn’t viable.
We use internal combustion engines because they are feasible, convenient and reliable. That line about nobody looking out for the consumer can only flag somebody as being out of touch with the enormous benefits of a entrepeneurial
society. I have worked for years in the automotive business and if you don’t think that we care about the consumer, then you don’t think, period.
Speaking as a real ME, I believe that the future is the clean diesel cars. Qatar is currently building a 1 trillion dollar facility to convert natural gas to diesel. Unlike a most of Arabian peninsula countries, they don’t have alot of oil, but they have natural gas out the wazzo. The facility will be able to supply half of Europe’s diesel demand. Europe already has 50% of their cars running on diesel. The VW TDI Jetta gets better MPG than the Prius, is a nicer car, has better performance, and is cheaper. Other than that though.
If you were a real ME then it would be obvious that as the range of an electric car increases, the weight of the batteries has to go up as well. Batteries are fairly heavy, so electric cars will always have a very limited range. Doesn’t mean that there won’t be applications, but they will never be what we expect out of our cars. I’d like to have an electric car for short trips, but I can only afford so many cars.
Regardless, for the forseeable future, electric cars are coal burners, don’t pretend it’s anything but.
“Where in the world do you get your information?”
Nissan will be releasing its EV next year and you will be able to buy one in 2011. It will cost $25 to $30,000. Cost will come down significantly thereafter as mass production is optimized. Search “Nissan Leaf”. It will cost about $35 a month to charge, obviously depending on your local electricity price and how much you drive.
“Compare the lifetime cost of any hybrid or all-electric vehicle (without taxpayer subsidies) with the I.C. and you will still find the straight-up I.C. engine is the cheaper alternative.”
For now, yes, but if gasoline goes up much like last time (which is sure to happen as it’s becoming scarcer and demand is increasing), and in 5 years when EV’s drop in price to $20,000, the economics will swing in favour of EV’s. That’s only 5 years away.
“What you’re missing in all this is capital cost.”
What’s important is the price of electricity you pay at night, not the capital costs involved with building new power plants. We won’t need new power plants (charge your EV at night).
Regarding wind turbines, your economic analysis is obviously flawed because they are springing up all over the place; the industry is almost doubling in capacity every year, as is solar energy.
“It isn’t about conspiracies. It is all about economics.”
It’s about both conspiracies and economics. The conspiracy is attempting to keep economies of scale from bringing an affordable EV to market (via Chevron’s patent on the NiMH battery). That conspiracy will fall apart within 5 years as EV’s sweep the market.
night after night my senses get assailed with sponsor a donkey/ penguin / non-humanoid £3 per month WWF scam.
Given the planet-killing GHG production by other lifeforms, may I make an appeal?
Terminate a Termite. For £2.50 per month – saving the planet and 50p a month to boot!
As I think I have said before please wake me up when something nteresting happens in the Arctic.
Like finding the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow at the North pole.
Otherwise the ice will do as the ice will do and there’s no doing anything about it.
Kindest Regards
Enduser (11:12:32) :
High country my foot. A couple of hours ago it was snowing in Colorado Springs (that is where the mountains meet the plains.)
~~~
The Springs may be where the Mt’s meet the plains, but they are also at (average) 6500 ft elevation. and yes, elevation maters.
Gallagher (16:29:18) :
Unlike you, I actually am an ME, and like ALL MEs, i can tell you that wind is not economically attractive, just socially attractive to those who believe in free lunches.
~~~
It is only socially attractive when someone else has to live with it. Just ask the environmentally friendly and PC’s in Marin County, CA. When told their power company would be environmentally friendly and switch to wind, they had such a fit, they killed the plan.
Juraj V. (13:51:48) :
The graph you posted showing ice extent perfectly flat before the sixties (at least in the fall) is junk. It is based on a model of arctic temperatures (not ice) which itself is junk. A better chart (still not perfect) comes from Russian data, the bulk of which is actual measurements of ice extent, not pretend extend using a bogus temperature record as a proxy. Here’s the Russian data, shows an overall decline, but not as dramatic as other fluctuations, plus the decline is likely natural as the 1800’s were generally cooler in the NH
http://www.frontier.iarc.uaf.edu:8080/~igor/research/ice/fig2.gif
I’m a little taken aback by all the completely inaccurate numbers being thrown at me by apparently real engineers; I guess being an “expert” doesn’t mean you actually research the numbers.
“Solar panels on cars? Please. At best, with any existing technology (other than hyper expensive GaAs exotics) you might get 600 watts midday, less than 8 kWh per day. No matter how slow you drive, you won’t get far.”
The Tesla Roadster gets 135 Wh/km, so at your 8 kWh per day that is 60 km. Let’s add in some modest efficiency reductions and bring it down to 10 km shall we?
“30% from wind? Sure, if we reduce our total demand by about 80%.”
Not if we build more wind turbines (?!?!)
“As for ‘nationwide grids’, you haven’t tried sending electricity very far.”
In BC we send our electricity 1500 km from the dam to the city.
“Given that it takes more power to charge a battery than you get back out, as much as 50% more, I rather doubt charging your car off the grid from a reasonably modern coal fired plant is much cleaner than a modern ICE.”
Nope, the Tesla Roadster’s plug to wheel efficiency is 70%.
“A hundred grand for a Tesla and you get about 200 miles/charge. Great, unless you need 10 more miles to get home.”
That price will drop dramatically when they are mass produced (they have only produced 800 so far I think — they can hardly compete with Toyota on economies of scale). When you see your charge drop down you go charge it up at a “gas” station, it takes 1/2 hour. How many times have you run out of gas and been stranded? Almost never, I’d guess.
Also, Lotus has developed a 100 lb range extending ICE which will give you limitless range.
“i can tell you that wind is not economically attractive, just socially attractive to those who believe in free lunches.”
Oil is subsidized.
“If you were a real ME then it would be obvious that as the range of an electric car increases, the weight of the batteries has to go up as well. Batteries are fairly heavy, so electric cars will always have a very limited range.”
Nope, they are made of lithium, #3 on the periodic table. These batteries are extremely light. The Tesla Roadster gets 240 mile range. With developments in the next 5-10 years we should see this approach 500 miles. With a genset trailer or a 100 lb range extending ICE on board you have limitless range.
“Regardless, for the forseeable future, electric cars are coal burners, don’t pretend it’s anything but.”
Not if you have solar panels on the roof of your house. In California it’s now cheaper to put them on your house than not (admittedly, with government subsidies but those will soon not be needed as costs drop).
“The VW TDI Jetta gets better MPG than the Prius”
The Prius uses NiMH batteries. This is the conspiracy. Chevron got hold of control of this patent and forced Toyota to stop making EV’s in 2003. They are only allowed to use the battery in the Prius (a non plugin parallel hybrid). Toyota is not allowed to add a wall plug so you can charge up overnight and get 20 km of range for your morning commute. That is why the Prius’s mileage isn’t outstanding.
The new Prius coming out is a plugin but it uses lithium ion batteries (patent not controlled by an oil company)
Craig Moore (15:26:57) :
“What’s up with the temperature spike? http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php”
Interestingly it corresponds with the appearance of a sunspot as the spike to zero did around July 4th.
To all those throwing in a political angle to the debate, know that these are sweeping generalisations and do not reflect reality. Just stick to the science folks, because departing from that angle loses the debate immediately.
There are plenty of people on both sides of the fence politically, and climate change-wise, and the two probably do not correlate all that well. Besides which, left and right are relative judgements (left in the US is probably right of right in Australia for example).
Wind turbines are subsidised; coal plants are penalised by requiring extra coal usage to bury the CO2 nutrient and thereby starve plants and thenceforth animals and humans. Wind turbines are also animal killers. From the European Environment Agency’s own report, I did an analysis of this here: http://peacelegacy.org/articles/wind-farms-do-they-kill-birds
ked5 (16:51:19) :
It is only socially attractive when someone else has to live with it. Just ask the environmentally friendly and PC’s in Marin County, CA. When told their power company would be environmentally friendly and switch to wind, they had such a fit, they killed the plan.
I am shocked by their practically! Did someone explain it to them? What drove the decision?
Of course, it’s common knowledge that the Kennedys stopped wind farms off Cape Cod, and it’s not like they had to pay for or survive on wind power, they just didn’t want to see the ugly things out the back door.
I spent today exploring the Hoosier Pass area (the Continental Divide) 15 miles South of Breckenridge, and it was like the middle of winter up there. Eight or more inches have fallen so far, and more is in the forecast. The wind made it feel bitterly cold. After a short hike in the Blue Lakes area my dog and I were happy to return to the cab of my truck and the heater. Autumn begins tomorrow, but it’s just about finished up there as most deciduous trees have shed their leaves. Definitely not warm in the high country of Colorado.
Mudmucker:
When, ten to twenty years from now, the real environmental nightmare produced by 100-pound (and heavier) car batteries begins to unfold, I will remember the “greens” who screamed that they were necessary.
Alas, I won’t be able to give you any of the credit personally, because you don’t feel comfortable enough with your views to use a name.
Shame, that.
Bulldust (17:33:08) :
Too late for that, it’s already in the political arena. And since my GOP US Congressman wants to fight the Climate Change Bill by introducing a competing bill to conserve energy instead of tax it into the dirt, I say
“Bring it”.
Harold Ambler (17:46:40) :
Like the MTBE additive that was supposed to be the next big thing in clean fuel. Destroyed many a carburator, fuel injections and diesels, and then got into the groundwater where they found out how toxic it really was. A Czar in California waved the wand and made it so. Didn’t look, didn’t think, didn’t ask.
We should not forget the history that from around 1920 to 1940s a strong Arctic warming happened (and probably sea ice extent decreased, though few people were aware of that because it was wartime and technology was still in its infancy), and then from around 1940 to mid-1970s the Arctic tended to cool. All these were before the satellite era that started only 30 years ago, in 1979.
I am sure we are simply experiencing a repetition of such a 60 to 70-year warming/cooling cycle which probably has taken place from time immemorial.
Craig Moore (15:26:57)
Air mass from Siberia, which was quite hot recently.
mudmucker (17:24:09) :
“The VW TDI Jetta gets better MPG than the Prius”
The Prius uses NiMH batteries. This is the conspiracy. Chevron got hold of control of this patent and forced Toyota to stop making EV’s in 2003.
Ok, I hear you, just relax. I don’t mean to pry but, where you are, are you there…..alone? Is there anyone you can talk to about this? I can sense your frustration and frankly, I don’t think that simple facts are going to do anything to help you through this.
Maybe you should just take a break and not think about it for a few days, what will be, will be. Luckily for all of us climatic change isn’t generally all that abrupt in a single lifespan, you’ll be fine.
mudmucker (17:18:48) :
i dont suppose you have any specs on kw/kg on engines & battery/kg/charge? Obviously a big diesel train is a good example of a large scale “hybrid” but quite heavy for the power they deliver.
“Wind turbines are subsidised; coal plants are penalised by requiring extra coal usage to bury the CO2 nutrient and thereby starve plants and thenceforth animals and humans. Wind turbines are also animal killers.”
Just to point out the facts, they aren’t doing this. There may be a couple around here and there I believe but it’s very uncommon.
Turbines are terrible bird killers if they aren’t sited properly. So ….. site them properly…..
Harold Ambler @ur momisugly 17:46:40
10-20 years? Try 1 or less in some cases. A couple of buddies that pull wrench at a Toyota dealer tell me the batteries are crap and rarely last beyond a year. Toyota is, or soon will be eating some substantial costs for warranty replacements. I am yet to see a “recycled” prius battery. Must be an enormous pile of them somewhere. Bet it’s in China.
I am hoping someone develops more cars like the Tesla. That is a promising design. The Prius is a maintenance trap with much lower than advertised mileage. Anyone ever actually see one where the gas engine wasn’t running? Maybe for about 50 feet out of the driveway, or stopped at a light. The rest of the time that little 4-pot is singing soprano lugging 1000 kilo’s of dead batteries!
“It is only socially attractive when someone else has to live with it. Just ask the environmentally friendly and PC’s in Marin County, CA”
It’s probably not a good idea to put wind turbines in scenic coastal areas. A better place is the huge interior of the continent with strong prairie winds blowing all the time and endless corn fields and no one around to complain except the farmers who will make money off them.
“When, ten to twenty years from now, the real environmental nightmare produced by 100-pound (and heavier) car batteries begins to unfold, I will remember the “greens” who screamed that they were necessary.”
Lithium is non-toxic, just to point out the facts. Beyond this, these batteries are expensive and they will be worth a lot of money after they are finished for their lithium. No sane person will throw them in the ditch.
REPLY: … just to point out the facts…You are wrong. Lithium IS in fact toxic.
http://www.drugs.com/enc/lithium-toxicity.html
Note the key words:
Poisonous Ingredient: Lithium, a soft metal