The Chinese civilization has existed survived intact far longer than any other in human history, and they have records of that civilization that span 2-3 thousand years BC. They’ve seen more climate change than any other civilization.
The Guardian recently interviewed Xiao Ziniu, the director general of the Beijing Climate Center.
Excerpts:
A 2C rise in global temperatures will not necessarily result in the calamity predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), China’s most senior climatologist has told the Guardian.
He had this bit of wisdom to pass along:
“There is no agreed conclusion about how much change is dangerous,” Xiao said. “Whether the climate turns warmer or cooler, there are both positive and negative effects. We are not focusing on what will happen with a one degree or two degree increase, we are looking at what level will be a danger to the environment. In Chinese history, there have been many periods warmer than today.”
He added:
“Climate prediction has only come into operation in recent years. The accuracy of the prediction is very low because the climate is affected by many mechanisms we do not fully understand.”
We would do well to listen.
More important, we should take note of the fact that China laughs in the face of the west when it comes to regulating their own economy through self imposed emissions goals, while the west cuts back its manufacturing capability, China surges forward.
Nixon awakened a sleeping giant. They’ll squish us like a bug economically and in many other areas. For example China just this week broke ground on a fourth space launch complex.
China will likely go to the moon before the US returns there, perhaps as early as 2014. Meanwhile they aren’t worried about anything, whether it be the atmospheric or the political climate.
In looking at this map from the Beijing Climate Center, it is notable how they see things differently.
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Plus or Minus 8 degrees. What novel idea to show anomalies. A marked difference from +/- 0.8 used by GISS.
Hopefully Xiao Ziniu has some political contacts.
Sounds rational. The map data visualization looks interesting. How are they getting their data and is it open and available?
Maybe in our lifetimes we’ll all have a little red book.
“Climate prediction has only come into operation in recent years. The accuracy of the prediction is very low because the climate is affected by many mechanisms we do not fully understand.”
Yes, that’s interesting … however the inherent process of weather and climate generate randomness within itself thus it will never be predictable, you must let the weather and climate processes ‘compute’ their solution in real time to know what the weather will be any given day or place and what the climate will be any given decade or place.
Inherent randomness within a system is a NEW basic scientific fact proven by Stephen Wolfram in A New Kind of Science. It’s likely that climate scientists are not aware of it yet.
I would quibble over the hubris of “longer than any other civilization”. That hangs on the belief that changes from, for example, the Chin to Mao are not a change of civilization and the implied assertion that changes from the Pharaoh to Muhammad make a new civilization in Egypt (despite the number of Coptic texts and other texts in Hieratic and Demotic still kicking around Egypt).
OK, with that out of my system: Yes, China has a long preserved history and a view of history that spans longer than than the “schedule menu” on the satellite TV system. That is a major advantage to seeing climate patterns.
I would trust their temperature series long before anything from GISS.
They are spot on about “it was warmer before” and it not being a problem.
And they WILL be on the moon before anyone else, including us, can get there again. They know that “the High Frontier” is the future and strategic high ground. Nothing will stop that. NASA, eat your heart out. You are yesterdays news. (Anyone have some fish & chips to wrap?)
It is a study in beauty so see how strategically China is positioning itself in both the economic and the military competitive arenas. Not just 5 year plans, but 50 year plans. Exquisite.
If you are young enough, I suggest learning Chinese. You will need it.
And it isn’t just me who says this.
FWIW, one of the very best commodity traders in the world, Jim Rogers, has packed up and moved to Singapore so his kids will grow up speaking chinese and be prepared for the future…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers
http://www.allthingsjimrogers.com/2009/07/30/jim-rogers-continues-to-be-bullish-on-commodities-and-china/
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Invest-in-commodities-in-China-Jim-Rogers-19914-3-1.html
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/02/jim-rogers-live-interview-from.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/113105-expert-commodity-picks-for-2009-jim-rogers-and-marc-faber
REPLY: China has some apparent issues with records continuity in th 20th century as well as issues with UHI due to rapid industrialization. – Anthony
More Chinese, this is a must read:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4044&linkbox=true
Quoting:
“Nixon awakened a sleeping giant.”
Commenting:
A romantic and somewhat naive thought, I opine. I believe it was the re-integration of Hong Kong that changed China forever. I admit that I had thought Hong Kong would wither under Chineese rule – but the opposite happened. Hong Kong taught the Chinese how to be prosperous. The freedom did not take root, but Tiennemen showed the promise and freedom may yet take hold.
OT, but will these greenies be prosecuted?
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/entertainment/865229/activists-dump-manure-on-clarksons-lawn
Re: E.M.Smith (19:45:06)
I noticed the statement as well about the antiquity of the Chinese. It is old, but as far as recorded secular history goes the Sumerians of the Middle East have them all beat by quite a bit (unless I really don’t remember my world history right). Anyway, even if we needed to, it is futile to talk of carbon caps when the Chinese are not on board.
You could argue that China is the oldest surviving civilization.
(Or you can take it back to the Yellow Emperor . . .)
You might have an argument from Egypt (but they were under occupation for a lot longer than China under the Mongols and setting aside various/sundry Times of Troubles).
REPLY: Yes Evan, you said it better than I. I considered Egypt, but the Chinese continuity is what I was really speaking to. – Anthony
There’s no evidence that we’ll experience any calamity at all, apart from economic collapse due to stupidity.
Yeah, the eastern hemisphere great river valleys all have ancient cultures.
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It is interesting to compare western and China’s dynamic approach to life and industry to ours these days. I am not sure I object to relinquishing the world stage to them.
“FWIW, one of the very best commodity traders in the world, Jim Rogers, has packed up and moved to Singapore so his kids will grow up speaking chinese and be prepared for the future…”
I too packed up and moved to Singapore, where my kids are learning Chinese because I also think the West is facing enormous challenges in the near future: intellectual and physical sloth, a horrendous demographic profile and a general flight from reality.
Much of Asia is currently where we were up to several decades ago: hard working, ambitious and rooted in common sense.
It’s no surprise to me that today, the top climate scientist in a recently communist basketcase sounds a lot more reasonable than his counterpart at Nasa.
Maybe the West will wake up when the Chinese flag is on the moon, or maybe we’ll twitch in our sleep and just turn over.
Well, this guy is obviously a tool of Exxon Mobil. Xiao Ziniu must be Chinese for Boone Pickens.
The Chinese being on the moon with a permanent military base will bring new meaning to the term “overlords”. Who needs to invade when you control the purse strings, the technology manufacturing and dominate the military spacial volume from the high ground surrounding the Earth. Easy to defend and easy to attack from, the moon is.
They’ve seen more climate change than any other civilization.
While I normally agree wholeheartedly with your premises, this one is quite faulty. You are clearly implying that chinese people have more knowledge on the subject of climate change, since they’ve been around for thousands of years. Have they been able to predict future climates in those thousands of years? Clearly, their history of famines suggests that they couldn’t.
The man may have some interesting things to say, but you do him a disservice by suggesting that he knows more than others because he comes from a country that is part of a dozen countries that sooner or later became china. Heck, you might as well say that Italians know more than the rest of us because they were once Rome, or Egyptians know everything about climate change since Egyptians have been around since xxxx BC.
xxxx being a very large number, not the faulty equivalent of 40 in Roman numerals.
Native Americans – 20,000 years
REPLY: Good point, but do they have any written records of what weather and climate were like? – Anthony
Anthony – Do we?
“Meanwhile they aren’t worried about anything, whether it be the atmospheric or the political climate.”
Which are their specific words to us:
“What you worried about?”.
Let me answer that: Greed & Stupidity – the perfect formula for shortsightedness.
China’s leadership is interested only in China.
This forum would not be allowed there.
However, we have much to learn from them…but not their way of government.
C’mon Anthony, do another posting on the AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent chart. You know you want to. We want you to, too.
E.M.Smith (19:45:06) : “I would quibble over the hubris of “longer than any other civilization”. …
Nice point, E.M..
REPLY: Good point, but do they have any written records of what weather and climate were like? – Anthony
No, they have legends. One of which was recently brought to light, as being a true account, when a researcher discovered a 10-year drought in the Columbia River Basin.
In all this talk of bringing up their children “to speak Chinese”; exactly which dialect did they have in mind (I would guess Mandarin)? As I understand it, great portions of the Chinese population cannot even speak to one another and communicate via a hieroglyphic written form that is unrelated to spoken sounds. It might be better to learn to read and write Chinese (Got a couple of lifetimes to spare?).
If you’re going to lose your bowels and run away, why not to Russia? The language is easier and they’re well on their way to domination of the Europeans with their lock on natural resources and a U.S. President they’ve measured and found wanting. As an added bonus, they have no more use for AGW than do the Chinese. Make sure you can afford to hire some local muscle if you intend to be a “serious player” there.
On reflection the real record of the Native American is that they are still here – despite some dramatic climate shifts over the period.