It appears Arctic sea ice has bottomed out and is now on the growth rebound. The NANSEN Arctic ROOS website shows that in terms of area, sea ice appears to have turned the corner as of Sept 13th data. While that is just one data point, it turned the corner about this time last year, and the year before.
More data and graphs from NANSEN Arctic ROOS are available here.
Many WUWT readers have been watching JAXA’s sea ice extent graph closely, so have I. Typically JAXA updates the graph twice a day; once around the start of their business day (in Japan), and then a second update that contains the corrected data (after going through processing and QC) a few hours later. Tonight (9/14) about 11:30PM PST JAXA updated their Sept 14th AMSRE data with this new number:
5,269,531 km2
UPDATE: JAXA updated the number again and it now stands at 5,276,563 km2
That is a gain of almost 20,000 26,719 km2 from the Sept 13th value of 5, 249, 844 km2 which may very well turn out to be the minimum extent for 2009. Here is the Sept 14th chart and the data from JAXA:
Source: IARC-JAXA Sea Ice page
Here is the tabular Arctic Sea Ice Extent data for September 2009 with the minimum highlighted in blue. A CSV data file for Excel is available here.
| 9 | 1 | 2009 | 5423750 |
| 9 | 2 | 2009 | 5398281 |
| 9 | 3 | 2009 | 5379844 |
| 9 | 4 | 2009 | 5387969 |
| 9 | 5 | 2009 | 5363438 |
| 9 | 6 | 2009 | 5345156 |
| 9 | 7 | 2009 | 5328906 |
| 9 | 8 | 2009 | 5330469 |
| 9 | 9 | 2009 | 5315938 |
| 9 | 10 | 2009 | 5295313 |
| 9 | 11 | 2009 | 5278594 |
| 9 | 12 | 2009 | 5259375 |
| 9 | 13 | 2009 | 5249844 |
| 9 | 14 | 2009 | 5276563 |
For 2008 the value reached minimum on September 9th, rebounded slightly, shrank again, and then turned the corner and started rebound again on September 17th.
| 9 | 1 | 2008 | 4957656 |
| 9 | 2 | 2008 | 4924219 |
| 9 | 3 | 2008 | 4927031 |
| 9 | 4 | 2008 | 4868906 |
| 9 | 5 | 2008 | 4825625 |
| 9 | 6 | 2008 | 4808281 |
| 9 | 7 | 2008 | 4739844 |
| 9 | 8 | 2008 | 4715469 |
| 9 | 9 | 2008 | 4707813 |
| 9 | 10 | 2008 | 4729688 |
| 9 | 11 | 2008 | 4751563 |
| 9 | 12 | 2008 | 4745156 |
| 9 | 13 | 2008 | 4742344 |
| 9 | 14 | 2008 | 4747188 |
| 9 | 15 | 2008 | 4731875 |
| 9 | 16 | 2008 | 4726250 |
| 9 | 17 | 2008 | 4718594 |
| 9 | 18 | 2008 | 4736406 |
| 9 | 19 | 2008 | 4745000 |
| 9 | 20 | 2008 | 4752500 |
Of course it is entirely possible nature has other plans, but the appearance of a change in direction is there and the time is about right historically. If this holds it will put 2009 542,031 km2 above 2008’s Sept 9th low extent, making it the third lowest extent in the AMSRE data set and the second year of increasing ice extent since the historic low in 2007 of 4,267,656 km2
The signs are right, and Nature will let us know in the next few days if we have indeed turned the corner and will be headed upwards.
UPDATE: Commenter Dave points out that the DMI extent graph, shown below, does a better job of illustrating the uptick.
As much as I like to think that cooling has commenced, note that Cryosphere
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
shows a slight up tic in the NH and a similar down tic in the SH. This almost always reverses itself in a few days.
Remember, if the Earth has warmed (and it has…) the excess heat has to be rejected, and most will go out thru the Arctic.
If this item is correct you will be amused. Illustrates and documents some of the scam about Arctic ice.
First image is
“The significance of the picture is that it was taken in 1984 when the 20,000-dwt ship made the first of several shipments of pipes from Japan to the Ob’ estuary via the “impossible” Northeast passage. It was following exactly the same route, to exactly the same destination as the much-lauded Beluga Fraternity and Beluga Foresight. Furthermore, the ship made the journey without an icebreaker escort.”
Beware strong language on the web site, a four letter word some do not like, nothing I can do about that.
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/09/pictures-tell-story.html
For a new name for the former MSM I suggest: Cloaca Maxima Media.
Ron de Haan (08:30:39) :
Thanks for the link to the Willie Soon work.
lace wigs (15:41:55) :
You haven’t seen any evidence pointing to natural variability?
You haven’t seen any of the ‘science’ blaming man for the warming to be shown wrong?
Flanagan (09:23:13) :
I know everyone will be angry at me, but it IS indeed much worse than predicted
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2009/stroeve.png
Moreover, the extent is about 300 000 km2 below the linear projection of the decrease based on measurements since 79. So, believe it or not, it will actually make the trend even MORE negative than it was last year. A system where the derivative continuously decreases can be qualified as “accelerating”.
It’s a good thing the models were not making predictions of profit – or else their authors would be out of a job.
At what point will you have sufficient understanding of the natural forces operating on the arctic ice extent to actually make reliable predictions?
“”” Jim in Florida (15:52:57) :
As much as I like to think that cooling has commenced, note that Cryosphere
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
shows a slight up tic in the NH and a similar down tic in the SH. This almost always reverses itself in a few days.
Remember, if the Earth has warmed (and it has…) the excess heat has to be rejected, and most will go out thru the Arctic. “””
Actually I would think very little of that excess heat will go out through the arctic. The equatorial tropical deserts are as much as ten times more efficient at radiating excess heat than are the polar regions, especially Antarctica, whcih can be 12 times lower than the mid day deserts.
The polar regions are not where the earth is losing heat.
George
Some of the changes in Arctic Sea Ice this year according to JAXA sea ice data:
First week January – lowest for the 8 years.
End of January – in the middle of the pack again.
Early May – highest in 8 years.
Early July – melting fast and back to middle of pack.
Middle July – melting fast and second only to 2007.
Mid September – heading back towards the middle of the pack again.
November 2009 – 8 year record low? 8 year record high? Middle of pack again? You tell me….
Wow. El Nino can’t even get rid of that ice.
Robert Wykoff (10:35:48) :
My hypothesis is that the ice is one of the thermostats of the Earth. Receding when we get too warm & advancing when we get too cool. Ice is a good insulator.
DaveE.
MikeW (12:53:53) :
Except you failed to not that water is at its most dense about +4ºC, that’s how we know the temperature at the ocean bed.
This gives us a paradox…
Water above the bed must be both above and below ~4ºC
DaveE.
“My hypothesis is that the ice is one of the thermostats of the Earth. Receding when we get too warm & advancing when we get too cool. Ice is a good insulator.”
Like it lots. The poles receive heat obliquely from the sun but radiate away normally, so ice-free poles are losing an awful lot more heat than nice cold ice-caps.
I guess a fairly major equator to pole ocean current would be needed to keep the poles ice-free (supply all the heat to radiate away) so one can see how continental drift causes ice-caps.
So is Al Gore wrong, or right?
As Steven Goddard pointed out winter 2009/10 freeze will be interesting. And it’s already starting.
Some always use Month to talk about trends and records. “Compare January 08 to January 05 and I can prove [fill in the blank]!” But when did the Earth care what month it was in? The Earth can adjust forwards or backwards without regard to date. The Earth does not know date. And it only gives passing acknowledgment to seasons. There are other ways to more accurately describe the passing of time, and that has to do with the degree of tilt relative to the Sun. Even then, if one were to compare conditions at the exact moment that the same degree of tilt occurred over time, one would be impressed by the degree to which weather does not care about tilt. It does not know tilt.
This is why I heartily approve of the way in which the El Nino data set is reported. They have determined that overlapping averages across three months’ time is a more realistic representation of trends and takes into account that the Earth does not know date and weather does not know tilt. I agree. Maybe all such CO2/climate/weather/cryosphere data should be so presented. Meaning that we would be talking about averages in this way: JFM, FMA, MAM, AMJ, MJJ, JJA, JAS, ASN, SND, NDJ, DJF, JFM. It seems to me that if the hypothesis that oceanic conditions are the true driver of both weather and climate changes, it would be worth examining data sets by using the same way of averaging across time.
Tyler (05:33:16) :
Brilliantly funny and well-written post.
You should be a screen writer. Your audience would be rather limited as to getting the esoteric humor.
That does not mean its not funny. I would watch it!
You hit the nail on that head…and did so in a very blankety blank creative way.
Thanks for that. Combining good science with a sense of humor…that’s what I’m talking about.
Cheers, mate.
CHRIS
Norfolk, VA, USA
kingtekno (18:52:39):
“So is Al Gore wrong, or right?”
He’s wrong about almost everything. Just like Elmer Gantry was.
But Elmer Gantry made it rain!
JAXA Sept 15th preliminary Arctic sea ice extent = 5,287,500 (and the final figure is larger almost all the time). It’s risen almost 38k. That’s a substantial 2-day rise but don’t get cocky kid.
In 2003 the Sept 11th figure was 6,041,250. By Sept 13th it had risen to 6,180,313. That’s almost 140k up. But the minimum was 6,032,031on Sept 18th.
We’ve probably seen this year’s min but don’t bank on it.
Look at what sea ice did when wooden ships were caught in it [starts at around 1:20]: click
Interestingly, Prudhoe Bay, Alaska’s weather is starting to shift to colder and snowier.
Forecast here: http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USAK0197
I also noticed last Fall that Prudhoe Bay’s weather turned wintry right when the Arctic sea ice started its seasonal increase. Not long after, snowy weather started hitting the U.S. with early snow in MT and WY and in the Great Lakes.
The peaks of Breckenridge Ski Resort and surrounding peaks have been getting dustings of snow recently, and Mt. Lincoln and Mt. Bross, two 14ers in Park County, CO picked up a good 3-4 inches of fresh last night.
Josh (20:33:13) :
The Farmers Almanac says it’s going to be a hard winter. Don’t bet against them.
GLOBAL WARMING IS A MYTH. FOR POLITICAL GAIN. DONT BE FOOLED. THIS IS A NATURAL CYCLE WE ARE EXPERIENCING. BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE SHOULDNT KEEP THE EARTH CLEAN AS POSSIBLE AND FIND ‘RE-NEW-ABLE’ ENERGY SOURCES IF THEY PAN OUT IN THE POCKETBOOK. ALL THE DATE PROJECTIONS ARRE ALSO FALSE REMEMBER ‘GARBAGE-IN-GARBAGE-OUT’
Hi again,
so yes the models clearly underestimated the Arctic sea ice loss – though they are not linear, contrary to what some say. The linear projections is more a “guide to the eye”, a reference if you like to see whether the trend is grossly speaking increasing or decreasing.
As Anthony points out, it would be interesting to push this trend a few years in front of us (not too long of course, it’s a linear approximation) to see what the extents should be to make it less negative. The linear trend projected 5.65 this year I believe, so it should be around that.
Too close to call around the corner. Average day variability is over 66.000 km2.
Smokey 20:24:50 Thanks for Stan Rogers, and Pam, jeez thanks.
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