Recently after some conversations with a former chemical engineer who provided me with some insight, I’ve come to the conclusion that many engineers have difficulty with many of the premises of AGW theory because in their “this has to work or people die” world of exacting standards, the AGW argument doesn’t hold up well by their standards of performance.
Today I was surprised to learn that one of the foremost and world famous engineers on the planet, Burt Rutan, has become an active climate skeptic. You may be familiar with some of Rutan’s work through his company, Scaled Composites:
Thanks to WUWT reader Dale Knutsen, I was provided a PowerPoint file recently by email presented by Mr. Rutan at the Oshkosh fly-in convention on July 29th, 2009 and again on August 1st, 2009. It has also now been posted online by an associate of Mr. Rutan’s.
There were a number of familiar things in the PowerPoint, including data plots from one of the USHCN stations I personally surveyed and highlighted, Santa Rosa, NM. Rutan had an interest in it because of the GISS adjustment to the data. For him, the whole argument is about the data. He says about his presentation in slide #3:
Not a Climatologist’s study; more from the view of a flight test guy who has spent a lifetime in data analysis/interpretation.
In the notes of his PowerPoint on slide #3, Rutan tells us why he thinks this way(emphasis mine):
My study is NOT as a climatologist, but from a completely different prospective in which I am an expert.
Complex data from disparate sources can be processed and presented in very different ways, and to “prove” many different theories.
For decades, as a professional experimental test engineer, I have analyzed experimental data and watched others massage and present data. I became a cynic; My conclusion – “if someone is aggressively selling a technical product who’s merits are dependant on complex experimental data, he is likely lying”. That is true whether the product is an airplane or a Carbon Credit.
Now since I’m sure people like foaming Joe Romm will immediately come out to label Mr. Rutan as a denier/delayer/generally bad person, one must be careful to note that Mr. Rutan is not your average denier/delayer. He’s “green”. Oh horrors, a “green denier”! Where have we seen that before?
From his PowerPoint, here’s his house, note the energy efficient earth walled design.
In his PowerPoint notes he says about his green interests:
My house was Nov 89 Pop Science Cover story; “World’s Most Efficient House”. Its big advantage is in the desert summer. It is all-electric and it uses more energy in the relatively mild winters than in the harsh summers – just the opposite of my neighbors.
The property has provisions for converting to self-sustaining (house and plug-in hybrid car) via adding wind generator and solar panels when it becomes cost effective to do so.
Testing Solar Water Heat in the 70s at RAF; the Rutan Aircraft Factory was converted to solar-heated water in the 70s, when others were only focused on gasoline costs.
My all electric EV-1 was best car I ever owned. Primary car for 7 years, all-electric with an 85 mile range. I was very sad (just like the guy shown) when the leased cars were recalled and crushed by General Motors. I will buy a real hybrid when one becomes available (plug-in with elect-range>60 miles). The Prius “hybrid” is not a hybrid, since it is fueled only by gasoline. A Plug-in Hybrid can be fueled with both gas and electricity. You might even see a ‘plug-in hybrid airplane’ in my future.
Interest is technology, not tree-hugging
Well that right there is reason enough to put all sorts or nasty labels on the man. Welcome to the club Burt, we are proud to have you!
Rutan’s closing observations slide is interesting:
And, in his notes he makes this mention:
Is the debate over? – The loudest Alarmist says the debate is over. However, “It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry”.
I think by the “loudest alarmist” he means Al Gore.
And his final slide:
Rutan’s PowerPoint file is posted at:
http://rps3.com/Pages/Burt_Rutan_on_Climate_Change.htm
For those that don’t have PowerPoint, I’ve converted it to a PDF file for easy and immediate reading online which you can download here.
I wonder if in conversations with his biggest client, Virgin’s Richard Branson, he ever mentions Gore and their joint project? I’d love to be a fly on the wall for that conversation.
Not being an American, I suggest that the American readers here send the pdf to all the members of congress and all the senators of the senate. Canadians, Australians, Brits etc. should also do the same with their respective governments.
On a side note, my understanding of AGW is higher lows at night, not generally higher highs during the day, and even at that more pronounced during the winter. Surely this a GOOD thing, increase in growing seasons, fewer people dying in the winter, no more A/C use in summer and maybe less furnace use in winter — both of which naturally lead to a reduction in CO2 as a by-product yada, yada, yada
Starship was a Rutan design for Beechcraft. Twin turbine canard. Carbon fibre. Beech aimed at a market that wasn’t there and the Starship was withdrawn because Beech did not want to offer support. Rutan was not involved.
Dr S. Fred Singer quotes Man Made CO2 contribution as around 0.117%
As an engineer and a modeller I fully agree and hate having to pay lip service to govt reports based on guess work contrary to observation.
I would say nearly every engineer I work with are skeptics with the best and brightest and most experianced engineers being the strongest skeptics, they can smell BS a mile off.
We have companys constantly offering us their “incredible” products and support their claims with obscure science and us engineers have quickly learnt to pull these claims apart in a second. Those that cant dont make very good engineers!
I especially know how misleading models can be!
Well, it looks as though the outcome is predetermined.
China, India, Brazil ect. will all comply (lie their asses off),
so dipstick can come home and declare consensus on CO2
cuts. Just how stupid do these morons think we are?
Rutan’s argument about complex experimental data being abused to sell an idea can also apply on the “estimated reserves” of coal and oil.
Apparantly he doesn’t realize that a finite space (Earth) can only hold finite amounts of coal and oil. (we will run out someday)
The cheaper alternatives he mentions are probably more expensive than the fossil fuels we used in the past decades.
And uhh …. planes don’t fly on coal, Bart.
Thanks Anthony and thanks Burt Rutan.
Patrick Davis (22:16:16)
The GST in Australia will not change it’s rate. It cannot change without every single state government AND both federal houses of parliament agreeing to the change.
Some economists have concluded that the ETS legislation would, if passed, effectively raise the GST rate, based on how much more Australians would pay for goods and services.
While I mostly did management of engineering projects, I’m still a decent hack / programmer. And it’s the same ethos. Get it right, or things break. His visibility will be worth a great deal.
FWIW, I did a little table / chart of the March of the Thermometers to the South:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/08/17/thermometer-years-by-latitude-warm-globe/
I can see no reasonable way to avoid the conclusion that the “warming” of the temperature record is because we put a pot load of thermometers closer to the equator and in the Southern Hemisphere.
And as a programmer, I can only say it would take one heck of a high “Q” filter to filter out that bias, and GIStemp is not up to the task. I would like to think that Burt would agree…
Jimmy Haigh (19:47:39) :
“Hmm. Nice house and a nice lifestyle. To live like this, you need to be a) rich and b) to have a real concern for the environment. Al Gore is rich…”
Well it’s just an improved mud hut, is it not? You don’t need to be as rich Gore to follow Burt’s example (and I’m sure his house cost a lot less to build than Al’s mansion, and certainly a lot less in upkeep. We have friends in parts of France who live in old earth-walled houses. Obviously outside conditions don’t compare with the Nevada desert, but I can say that generally, they are cheap to keep warm in the Winter and naturally cool in the Summer – no need at all for air-conditioning. The same is true of houses with thick walls and good thermal insulation.
Thanks, Anthony for putting us on to this. I had already heard of and been impressed by Burt Rutan’s heroic global flight and space projects; Glad to hear he’s an AGW sceptic; the least I can say is he’s a good man to have as an ally.
Engineers are generally taken for granted and their power of insight disregarded by the lawyers and accountants we allow to rule us. The centuries old snobbery against the ‘dirty handed mechanic’ is still with us, even in the land of the free.
The economy is underpinned by engineers. They are the true wealth creators. The money jugglers merely redistribute it, into their own pockets.
When will we finally see through the confidence trick and gain the mettle to throw out the corrupt?
I like his emphasis on data manipulation and mis-represntation.
Steve McIntyre keeps on about “engineering quality” in the science needed for global policy, and he is right. As a non-trained engineer but with a mind for detail of evidence (“the devil is in the details”) I KNOW he’s right – but I recognize that I hear those words with their emotional and spiritual power, but slightly lacking in exactitude. Many will be like me. They will KNOW we need “engineering quality”. What would be good would be to assemble a protocol that defines “engineering quality” in the context of the present situation in Climate Science. Defines it in a way that is rigorous enough for the noisiest and most “scientific” denier-debunker but is understandable by the lady in the street.
D King,
A bizarre video, eh? And one thing that’s always surprising is how often people still refer (without correction) to Gore as Vice-President.
The web page pointed to by curiousgeorge is a typical piece of black propaganda. There are the usual accusations of “big oil/big coal” paying oh, millions, to stop Cap and Tax, ETS, or whatever windmill is named.
It is those in the pay of Big Government and Big Green, pushing for these nefarious get rich schemes, that are the Astroturfers.
@ur momisugly MrCPhysics (22:13:40) : That may be true. Depends on how it’s handled. It is interesting tho, yes? It illustrates just how politicized the entire subject is, and ignoring the politics of it won’t make the controversy go away. Whether it aggravates the situation or not, or is helpful or harmful to the skeptic view remains to be seen.
There have been plenty of attempts to get thru to the policy makers, using rational arguments and scientific studies that debunk AGW, that so far have failed miserably. We complain that they are being hoodwinked by cooked data, yet expect them to understand opposing data? Perhaps it’s time to employ different tactics.
“if someone is aggressively selling a technical product who’s merits are dependent on complex experimental data, he is likely lying”
Interesting. The group of statisticians I used to work with might not like that comment…
I recall a statistical computing expert responding to a question about diagnostic-output from a computationally-intensive MCMC algorithm – his answer: “No one really understands what it means …or how to make any sense of it — but we just go with it anyway.”
When it gets to the point where people don’t even know what their fancy algorithms are doing…? …Can’t we admit we might have a problem?
Worthwhile results are robust across methodologies, but in the computationally-intensive fields, people are derided if they are not presenting cute, new, fashionable tools that their colleagues don’t generally have time to fully understand. (If it can’t even be readily understood within the field, that’s insurance for the discipline.)
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“Oh horrors, a “green denier”!”
There are getting to be a LOT of green non-alarmists. I am a parks & wilderness advocate who has used only 8 tanks of gas in a small car during the past 2 years. My former jobs include: park supervisor, acid-rain/soils researcher, rare plant conservation botanist (for a nature trust). I got banned at Tamino’s [alarmist blog] for being honest. A lot of alarmists are not interested in working hard to understand REAL nature. The nature I know will never be as simple as an alarmist computer fantasy.
–
Funding for asteroid safety – a noble path – prudent, sensible.
…but don’t cut climate research funding – just redirect it to sensible people who are intent on understanding the complexity of nature.
“Chris (00:46:05) :
Patrick Davis (22:16:16)
The GST in Australia will not change it’s rate. It cannot change without every single state government AND both federal houses of parliament agreeing to the change.
Some economists have concluded that the ETS legislation would, if passed, effectively raise the GST rate, based on how much more Australians would pay for goods and services.”
Have a read here…it is a little alarmist…but I’ve seen politicians pass laws before without following proper “procedure” for instance Thatcher Thatcher the Milk Snatcher passed many draconian employment laws during the Falklands War while everyone else, including the media, were focused on the war. Why would Australian politicians be any better? Of course, they aren’t, and if it suits them, they will pass any law or adjust any existing law as they see fit (Gilt edge pension fund, voted on in secret). KRudd747 and Ms P. w(R)ong need something to “boast” with at Copenhagen. He’s definitely not going to be around a second term.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,20797,25912087-3122,00.html
‘The Prius “hybrid” is not a hybrid, since it is fueled only by gasoline. ‘
I watched a Top Gear episode I believe one from 2004. They said you could drive 1 on 24 Thats in km and liters. But he only managed 1 on 16. An old diesel drives 1on 20 easely. So every celeberty with a hybrid is just a fake green person.
Heaven and Earth – The Missing Science by Ian Plimer is an essential read for anyone who needs to learn about the Earth’s history and climate. His political comments are good value as well and up to date (2009)
There have been other major names such as Freeman Dyson who are considered in the skeptic/denier camp.
Steve Schapel (01:49:43) :
It’s common for the highest title someone held to be used after they have left office as an honorific. Hence Mike Huckabee is often called Governor or Clinton, President.
” Ron de Haan (18:16:13) :
I am a great admirer of Burt Rutan who caused a revolution in the experimental aircraft scenery with his great “canard” designs (I fly a canard myself), his record non stop flight around the world, his space project and numerous aircraft (and other) designs.”
That was his brother Dick Rutan doing the flying, together with girlfriend (at least at departure) Jeana Yeager (no relation to Chuck).
Bobn (20:22:18) :
“but look at the pdf, many of the graphs/data he cites are flawed in themselves. For example the first one cites the flawed argument that human emissions of co2 are only about 3% of total co2 emissions.”
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After a quick look at the slides, that one jumped out at me. It does seem to be completely wrong – or possibly Rutan believes that the 20th century CO2 increase was primarily natural. However, it could have been an honest mistake. By far the biggest emitter of CO2 is nature. I don’t recall the actual figure, but it could be that in any given year mankind only emits 3.4% of the total emission. Of course, in that context it was completely wrong. As I said, it could be an innocent mistake. Unfortunately many people will seize on that mistake and use it to discredit the whole argument, although it is of very small significance. The real argument is about what the effects of the CO2 increase are likely to be, not about its cause.
You say:”many of the graphs/data he cites are flawed in themselves….” but you only give this example, which I think may be a small slip up. So, please, could you list the other slides that you think are wrong?
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Like most people here, I was extremely impressed by Burt Rutan’s presentation. It’s great that such a high profile person has come to this conclusion. I particularly like the ‘Show me the data’ slides. I’ve searched for such data and have found some. In every case there’s no correlation with AGW alarmism, just as these slides confirm.
Actually, I do get a bit angry about this. It’s one thing to say we’re all doomed by 2050 unless we mend our ways. Most people realise that doom-mongers are pretty well always wrong (otherwise I wouldn’t be sitting at my desk and writing this) and they will take account of this.
But it’s another thing to state or imply that already climate change is causing catastrophes and already killing hundreds of thousand. Unlike the doom-mongering, this is a lie, pure and simple. Thanks to people like Burt Rutan for trying to rescue the truth.
If you read or hear people saying that climate change is already a disaster there’s a very simple response, as Rutan has pointed out: just say ‘Show me the data’.
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As another poster pointed out, Rutan is working closely with Richard Branson, who is a true believer. I suspect people like Branson are believers primarily because, due to the biased and one-sided media coverage, they simply have no idea that there is a reasoned opposition to AGW. I hope that Rutan and Branson discuss climate change. After Branson has heard the other side of the story, maybe we could have another high profile supporter!
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I hope Rutan doesn’t try to keep this quiet. Perhaps he should write a letter to Obama. It is extraordinarily important that the most powerful man in the world should hear the other side of the story, and if it’s coming from Burt Rutan it will have a greater impact.
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Hearing about Burt Rutan has made my day. Thanks to WUWT for bringing this welcome news!
Chris
E.M. Smith
“I can see no reasonable way to avoid the conclusion that the “warming” of the temperature record is because we put a pot load of thermometers closer to the equator and in the Southern Hemisphere.”
Did you know that the equator and the southern hemisphere show the least warming? The northern hemisphere at high latitudes is warming much faster than either. So, how does a warming signal come from a part of the world that isn’t warming very much?
Well, I am en engineer and the level of ignorance, arrogance and complete lack of understanding of the substance of climate science shown by most commenters here is depressing.
There is no excuse for being this ignorant on the subject when the information is readily available. Comments here put the entire species of engineers to shame.
[Reply: Any citations? Or are you just trolling? ~dbstealey, mod.]
” Hans Verbeek (00:27:38) :
And uhh …. planes don’t fly on coal, Bart.”
Of course they do, Hans. Needs some treatment first, though.