NHC gets work

Tropical Depression #2 off coast of Africa

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009

1100 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

…DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD…NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY…

AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 29.6 WEST OR ABOUT

350 MILES…560 KM…WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/HR…

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY

OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION…

LOCATION…14.6N 29.6W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 PM AST.

=====================

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009

600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

…SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

FORMS…

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER

THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT 600 AM AST…1000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280

MILES…455 KM…WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH…20

KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD

BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION…

LOCATION…14.4N 28.6W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM AST.

27 thoughts on “NHC gets work

  1. “What? They haven’t named it yet?”
    Maybe they will skip a few letters to make it look like this isn’t the first. Have to keep up the scare.

  2. No name yet. The latest AScat only shows 25-30kt winds. Once it hits 35kt, they’ll probably name it.

  3. Stacey (07:55:25) :
    “Off Post
    Our Gav is posting at Comment Is Free if you agree. Under no name he attacks this web site but why oh why does he do it.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/aug/11/climate-change-press
    To continue off post, it’s about the Paleocene/Eocene CO2 thing. I haven’t read it yet but I imagine it busts the models whatever it was. At around about this time, India collided with Asia and the biggest outpouring of basaltic lavas in the last billion years or so? happened. At the same time, the North Atlantic opened and there were huge volcanoes on what is now the west coast of Scotland. Maybe a lot of CO2 was expelled as well?
    Anyway I’ll have a read of it….

  4. A VERY IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT ALWAYS SHOULD BE MADE IN CAPITAL LETTERS. PREFERABLY IN BOLD CAPITAL LETTERS. THAT WAY, THE HOI POLLOI WILL UNDERSTAND HOW IMPORTANT IT IS.

  5. The TD will not hold together for very long. The closer it gets to west Atlantic the weaker it gets. There is too much wind sheer. Or so I have heard.

  6. What is it the minimum SST in order not to dissolve before reaching the caribbean sea?, will it make it?

  7. Did anyone else see in Jeff Masters’ blog on wunderground.com where he mentioned that the mountainous regions of Taiwan got 9 feet of rain from Typhoon Morakot?
    YIKES!!!

  8. tallbloke (09:54:16) :

    A VERY IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT ALWAYS SHOULD BE MADE IN CAPITAL LETTERS. PREFERABLY IN BOLD CAPITAL LETTERS.

    Near as I can tell, NWS forecasters all learned to type, err, hunt & peck, back in Teletype days when you were lucky to have a semi-colon and only girls took typing lessons in high school. (As a freshman in college confronted with with an IBM 026 keypunch, (upper case only and no colon, I quickly realized I shouldn’t taken typing. No backspace key, either!) Bold text is far to modern for them.
    Robert Wood (10:37:23) :
    >> only shows 25-30kt winds
    > That’s bicycle speed; not very impressive for a mighty storm.
    It’s not a mighty storm. “A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds between 17 metres per second (33 kn) (39 miles per hour (63 km/h)) and 32 metres per second (62 kn) (73 miles per hour (117 km/h)).” A low pressure system with lesser winds is a Tropical Depression, without rotation, just a Tropical Wave. A tropical storm isn’t very mighty either, though some bring severe flooding rains.
    Hurricanes of any speed deserve respect, category 3-5 deserve a wide berth.
    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane#Intensity_classifications for good information world-wide.
    Um, how long can you sustain 25-30 kt bicycle speeds on the flat and without a tailwind? And no drafting. My rule of thumb is about 12 mph (11 kt) in rolling hill terrain including stops to enjoy the view. My fastest down hill is about 50 mph. (80 km/h).
    FYI, 5 mph up hill and 35 down hill doesn’t average to 20 mph overall!

  9. jh (10:26:34) :
    Up until recently I thought the work of the late philosopher-historian-sociologist-practicing psychologist Michel Foucault was so bleak because he was a depressive-gay-ex-marxist Frenchman, but I’ve added “To Discipline and Punish” to my reading list. I’m beginning to suspect that our current administration has read it and thought it was a marvelous idea. Fits in very well with the work of Alinsky.

  10. 25-35 knots is/was a brisk sailing day in my 25ft pocket yacht. Single reef in the main if I felt like it, more often as not twist off the top o’ the mains’le and spill the wind, harden up if I wanted or needed to wash the portlights. A small craft warning on the Great Lakes… arrr, matey!

  11. “Near as I can tell, NWS forecasters all learned to type, err, hunt & peck, back in Teletype days when you were lucky to have a semi-colon and only girls took typing lessons in high school. (As a freshman in college confronted with with an IBM 026 keypunch, (upper case only and no colon, I quickly realized I shouldn’t taken typing. No backspace key, either!) Bold text is far to modern for them.”
    I forecasted back in them thar days. The real reason for all caps is that the original ASCII code had only caps-no lower case. The warnings go out to areas of the world which *still* are using teletype and lower case just prints out as garbage.

  12. Hah, what is this modernistic ASCII stuff? A real weather guy was cutting a five-level paper tape using baudot code running an international II palette and sending it out on a Teletype Corporation Mod-28 ASR using a TD running at 75 words per minute. (a Mod-28 was famous for having 308 separate springs and they always seemed to work fairly well even though all the teletype mechs I ever knew had drawers full of springs they had neglected to reinstall after they finished cleaning the machines.)
    See there was also jargon in use back in those long ago days of the 1960’s when I would come in the office on a Monday to find my communications center waist deep in paper tape that was spit out from the data perforators over the weekend and have to spend the next two days putting together all of the various messages, creating sections of the right length (not to exceed 965 characters, and then sending them out to the weather gods back in the United States as raw material for their prognostications. All while trying to keep up with the new data that kept coming in.
    Regards to all the old tape apes out there that are still vertical

  13. Richard Patton (15:12:54) :

    I forecasted back in them thar days. The real reason for all caps is that the original ASCII code had only caps-no lower case. The warnings go out to areas of the world which *still* are using teletype and lower case just prints out as garbage.

    [Ding Ding Ding Ding] Oh oh. Geezer alert swapping stories alert.
    ASCII apparently briefly had a no lowercase definition, but space was reserved and added in draft soon after the first release in 1963. You may be thinking of the Baudot or ITA codes that (mostly) predate me.
    Some Teletype machines handled ASCII but were uppercase only (models 33 and 35). Some older machines were used for decades especially in newsrooms and were the source of the teletype background sound used in the intro to some network news programs (models 15, 28). Only a few handled lowercase (model 37, 38).
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teleprinter is quite good.

    OT: (On topic) TD#2 isn’t doing much. In non-shouted text:

    The depression is having some trouble developing well-defined
    convective banding...and the deep convection that does exist is
    limited to the western semicircle.  There has been no improvement
    to the convective structure since this morning...and Dvorak final
    T-numbers are T1.5 from both TAFB and SAB.  This supports keeping
    the initial intensity at 25 kt.
    
    • Ric and Richard.
      The NWS WeatherWire ran at 56.85 baud and used 5 bit BAUDOT code rather than ASCII, which indeed made it all upper case. I designed ingest circuits for a PDP 11/70 and PDP 11/15 to read WeatherWire. Took some doing. The 56.85 baud data rate was due to a mechanical teletype setting and cam that turned the rotor/hammer. Current loop circuit statewide. Very fragile, break the line and the whole state would go down.
      The NWS teletype system has been so programmed for globally since then that even the slightest change in text formatting causes breakdowns in systems worldwide. But, at least now they are doing full ASCII at standard bit rate speeds. I get my feed via satellite now. – Anthony

  14. About time. Here in North Carolina, we’ve been dry and sure could use a good tropical system to bring in some rain. Every time a tropical storm and hurricane blow through, the air smells so much cleaner.
    Of course, NOAA will name it the second it becomes a tropical storm. Can’t let the present be lower than past lows. And won’t tell people past records aren’t as accurate.

  15. Paul Coppin (14:47:53) : “25-35 knots is/was a brisk sailing day in my 25ft pocket yacht. Single reef in the main if I felt like it, more often as not twist off the top o’ the mains’le and spill the wind, harden up if I wanted or needed to wash the portlights. A small craft warning on the Great Lakes… arrr, matey!”
    Paul, it’s not the wind speed at this stage that counts. It is the nature of the storm that we take seriously. All tropical systems have the potential to be dangerous. Once there is a closed circulation, and if conditions are right, this now small storm can become one big, angry monster. And there is nothing that we can do about it. That is why news about it is important.
    BTW, thanks to Anthony and the Watts effect for getting the hurricane season restarted!

  16. Sorry – I’ve been told by the highest levels in Washington that “we can do something about it!” ….
    After all, what’s with stopping a mere little-bitty storm in a little itty-bitty ocean on one side of one part of one hemisphere if we are signing treaties committed to holding down the entire earth’s temperatures to a maximum change of two degrees?

  17. Note to all: Tropical Depresson Two weakened today as its energy was re-absorbed:
    “WDBO Local News
    Tropical Depression 2 weakening
    By Scott Anez, Sports Director @ August 13, 2009 10:48 AM Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
    MIAMI — A tropical depression in the Atlantic is weaker Thursday morning but forecasters say it could still become a tropical storm in the next few days.
    Tropical depression 2’s maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph. The depression is centered about 840 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and moving west at about 12 mph.
    This general motion is expected for the next couple of days with a gradual bend to the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed. ”
    Ref: http://wdbo.com/localnews/2009/08/tropical-depression-2-weakenin.html

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