More on the NRC 10.7 observatory here
JohnA writes in:
Just in case you wondered whether the recent large sunspot indicated an upswing in radio flux from the Sun: I went and asked Ken Tapping.
The answer: http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2009/07/10/ken-tapping-still-no-sign-of-the-next-cycle/
This could be the first “radio quiet” solar cycle
Previously on this blog, I’d mentioned my skepticism that one decent sunspot marked the end of the hiatus in the solar cycle we’ve seen for nearly two years. It might be my nature, but everybody has been wrong before.
As part of my public duty to actually ask real scientists monitoring the Sun, I wrote to Dr Ken Tapping of Canada’s National Research Council at the Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics in British Columbia:
Dear Dr Tapping
For the first time in a very long time, the Sun has managed to produce a sunspot (1024) which has lasted more than a few hours.
Is there any sign of an upswing in radio emissions indicating an end to the hiatus?
Best regards
John
and Dr Tapping replied (with my emphasis):
Hi John,
Last weekend I saw a really nice sunspot group on the Sun, which could have been part of the new cycle. The solar radio flux went up a little while it was there. However now the flux has slumped back to low values again.
Some theorists have suggested the new cycle is currently under way, but that for some unknown reason we are not getting the spots to go with it. I’m not sure what that really means, so I am making no suggestion as to what is going on.
Being very conservative, according to the measurements being made under our Solar Radio Monitoring Programme, we have yet to see signs the next cycle is really under way.
Regards,
Ken
Now this is what I’d thought, that the nice sunspot (1024) we’d seen did not presage a change in the behavior of the Sun: the solar wind speed remained subdued, coronal holes remained very small, there were no prominences to speak of.
It also baffles me how “some theorists have suggested the new cycle is currently under way, but that for some unknown reason we are not getting the spots to go with it”. If there are very few sunspots and the radio flux remains extremely subdued, on what basis are these theorists making their statements?
It could be that this is the first “radio quiet” solar cycle … anyone believe that?
So for solar physicists, it remains “interesting times” and probably a time to clear out some old theories and start again.
My thanks to Dr Tapping for the correspondence.
Yep, not much “ramping up” if you ask me.
As humanity is conned by virtual heat, the real world is confronted with real cold in the midst of summer in many places.
I know it’s only weather and it’s not the fault of the sun!
Are we still learning something or is it our oceans and a few burps caused by some of mother earth’s volcano’s?
Is it time to start with a clean sheet en try to explain what we observe.
Leif Svalgaard (07:59:44)
I count seven question marks. Which one is that one little question?’ Leif, Just the first question. ‘What would the sun look like ,bare, without sunspots?’ I know I raised many questions, my apologies. I do that. I’m just curious how the sun will look in a couple of years. Was it L&P (whom I respect) that suggested sunspot activity to cease altogether ? And then of course we got NASA stooges , (was it Hunt & Hill?) , blathering about ramped up solar jet streams , ready to kick off a firestorm of sunspots. If Livingston & Penn are right and let’s say NASA got it partly right, in six months or so or more, our sun might be the smoothest anyone has ever seen it. What I’m suggesting is this: Solar Electro-Magnetic Fields may be evolving in a way not before seen. With predictions about global cooling and jovian influences on our sun, I’m just curious what anomalies will form on the suns surface. I would like to see a few scientists with some mad skills render graphically their interpretations of solar events pertaining to a soon to be reached grand minima. – David Alan –
david alan (16:26:59) :
‘What would the sun look like ,bare, without sunspots?’
Like it does today, right now.
My colleagues and myself have assembled several lines of evidence that together suggest that the Sun at minimum resemble the Sun as a Grand Minimum, i.e. that there are no ‘new’ and unexpected phenomena that show up: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2470
There are some 4000 comments to that thread [and its sequels], so some answers to further questions you might have could be buried in that mass.
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/SunspotCyclePeriodLR1.PNG
Correction:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/SunspotCyclePeriod.PNG
“Jim, Carl passed away a couple of weeks ago”
Sorry to hear this. Carl predicted December 2008 as month of 24 minimum July 2007 and contributed expertly here at WUWT on a number of climate matters.
Leif Svaalgard ( 20:16:12 ) ‘there are no new and unexpected phenomena that show up.’ …… Well Mr. Svaalgard, I just can’t accept that. At least not yet. I encourage anyone with interest to observe an unexplained phenomena occuring now ,on or over, the face of our sun. Back on May 15, 2009 sunspot 1017 emerged and disappeared shortly there after. 2 months later , if you take a look at todays SOHO MDI (enlarged) images and study the location where ar11017 originated, you will see a defined dark speck. That dark speck has not moved for 2 months. Using http://www.spaceweather.com ‘s archived SOHO MDI images from the last 60 days , each image shows the same speck ! Now I’ve been waiting for any clarification as to the nature of its design. Could it be a MDI glitch ? Or an asteroid ? Or something else ? After 2 months of personal research, and still no clarification from any person or agency, I assume that either it truly is a solar phenomena or a unexplained reason not yet cited. Until some explanation is givin , I’m goin to go with solar phenomena. I’ve recently read hundreds of scientific articles dealing with solar activity and one regarding independent solar magnetic flux rings really jumped out at me. A terminological discription, that best suits my theory on this yet proven solar phenomena , is known as a ‘Serpents Head’. So while I wait for confirmation as to the nature of the speck (about the size of mars) on the suns surface, I am goin to assume that this grand minima has a lot more to offer than meets the eye. – David Alan –
david alan (16:18:01) :
“That dark speck has not moved for 2 months.”
Dark spot at 10 o’clock is a dead pixel on CCD chip and hopefully will be eliminated during next burnout.
Sorry to top-post but today we have a cycle 23 sun speck on the disk. The solar flux stands at 68 with 8+ days of spotless sun. Not much sign of a cycle 24 yet.
Leif Svalgaard, If this goes on for another year, and that must seem unlikely, what would that tell us about cycle 24? At what point would you say we are seeing something new?