More on the NRC 10.7 observatory here
JohnA writes in:
Just in case you wondered whether the recent large sunspot indicated an upswing in radio flux from the Sun: I went and asked Ken Tapping.
The answer: http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2009/07/10/ken-tapping-still-no-sign-of-the-next-cycle/
This could be the first “radio quiet” solar cycle
Previously on this blog, I’d mentioned my skepticism that one decent sunspot marked the end of the hiatus in the solar cycle we’ve seen for nearly two years. It might be my nature, but everybody has been wrong before.
As part of my public duty to actually ask real scientists monitoring the Sun, I wrote to Dr Ken Tapping of Canada’s National Research Council at the Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics in British Columbia:
Dear Dr Tapping
For the first time in a very long time, the Sun has managed to produce a sunspot (1024) which has lasted more than a few hours.
Is there any sign of an upswing in radio emissions indicating an end to the hiatus?
Best regards
John
and Dr Tapping replied (with my emphasis):
Hi John,
Last weekend I saw a really nice sunspot group on the Sun, which could have been part of the new cycle. The solar radio flux went up a little while it was there. However now the flux has slumped back to low values again.
Some theorists have suggested the new cycle is currently under way, but that for some unknown reason we are not getting the spots to go with it. I’m not sure what that really means, so I am making no suggestion as to what is going on.
Being very conservative, according to the measurements being made under our Solar Radio Monitoring Programme, we have yet to see signs the next cycle is really under way.
Regards,
Ken
Now this is what I’d thought, that the nice sunspot (1024) we’d seen did not presage a change in the behavior of the Sun: the solar wind speed remained subdued, coronal holes remained very small, there were no prominences to speak of.
It also baffles me how “some theorists have suggested the new cycle is currently under way, but that for some unknown reason we are not getting the spots to go with it”. If there are very few sunspots and the radio flux remains extremely subdued, on what basis are these theorists making their statements?
It could be that this is the first “radio quiet” solar cycle … anyone believe that?
So for solar physicists, it remains “interesting times” and probably a time to clear out some old theories and start again.
My thanks to Dr Tapping for the correspondence.
Leif Svalgaard (17:41:19) :
In spite of how you interpret what Ken Tapping says it is plain that solar cycle 24 has begun:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
What he probably meant was that SC24 has not yet produced any serious solar activity, no X-ray flares, for instance. But there can be no discussion that we are in SC24 right now. F10.7 is perhaps the cleanest indication, but also the ratio between SC23 and SC24 activity.
I agree..I think this is what he was trying to say…not that my opinion is important
Regarding Landscheidt 1981 publication vs. 1990s pubs vs. 2000+ pubs:
There is a clear progression in his work as his insights evolved. His progress did not die; rather he died. His work was not finished. Great care should be exercised in studying his works. For every stimulating idea, there is something that could really trip-up an unscrutinizing mind. His work is very-much worth studying, but I advise regarding it as an unfinished-starting-point for those with nearly-infinite-patience.
jtom (16:51:49) :
As I recall a couple years back they added a leap second.
Due to a very slight slowdown.
Re: rbateman (20:18:12)
Length of Day (LOD) time series can be obtained as follows:
Annual – RGO – 1623+:
http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/earthor/ut1lod/lod-1623.html
Annual – Nasa JPL – 1832-1997:
http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eoppc/series/longterm/jpl_c.eop
Daily – IERS – 1962+:
http://www.iers.org/products/177/11221/orig/eopc04_IAU2000.62-now
More generally:
Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) series can be obtained via:
http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/
Important Note:
Measurement methods improved dramatically around 1960.
Strongly Recommended:
Plot the error estimates before working with the earlier data.
– –
Re: jtom (16:51:49)
Good way of explaining.
[snip] too much work to cut out the offending part ~ ctm
So does TSI include the energy transfer in ionospheric convection? Yah Im way over my head trying to figure this out..
Gary Fox (17:48:26) :
I don’t think Landscheidt gets much credit …
I wonder how much the Mystic borrowed from Jose?
Informative post but I think you are a little too hard on Landscheidt. He does credit Jose in several papers, much as Ian Wilson tips his hat to both Jose and Landscheidt. He is also to my knowledge in personal contact with the person who runs the Landscheidt document repository.
Regarding Landscheidt and the golden section. When many cycles and physical entities and phenomena in nature are found to contain the golden section, it’s not surprising he should take an interest. Discovering parallels between non-causally related phenomena to help derive general principles might not be the way mainstream science usually works, but that does not mean it is an invalid use of our capacity to apprehend insight.
In fact, many discoveries and scientific advances have been made in just this way. Newtons falling apple, Pasteur’s microbes, Einstein’s relativity, radio telegraphy, Edison’s electric light and many more.
These things are seen as logical progressions after the fact, when they have been codified into ‘science’, but they were a priori discoveries born from ‘mystical insight’ originally.
Landscheidt was a pioneer in his own way. To use his interest in astrology to dismiss him would be as foolish as Dismissing Newton for his interest in calculating a date for the creation, or his tendency to fool around with heavy metals and old alchemical textbooks at the equinoxes.
Anything goes.
tallbloke (00:59:42) :
Anything goes.
Eventually including this.
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarField1.gif
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/Solar_cycles.gif
I am not astrologer (occasionally labelled as such), just a realist looking a logic correlations.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/ links for Solar Subcycle and Solar Current
Vukevic, I find your curves mathematically ingenious, but don’t understand how they relate to planetary motion. And I can’t get your website to load.
tallbroke (00:59:42)
Informative post but I think you are a little too hard on Landscheidt. He does credit Jose in several papers, much as Ian Wilson tips his hat to both Jose and Landscheidt. He is also to my knowledge in personal contact with the person who runs the Landscheidt document repository.
Your right tallbroke Landscheidt did give some credit to others. I was unaware that someone who has access to Landscheidt papers. Any idea of how to contact them ?
I’m guessing that Ian Wilson is also the same author of a paper that I read while visiting Carls Smiths webiste a couple of months back. (I recall the name Ian) It dealt with Jupiter and Venus and helieocentric latitudes and how this might play into things.
My only objection ? He claims it’s a new theory. I’ve been writing and speaking about the role of the importance of differential latitude for fifteen years now. And I even mention something about it in one of Landscheidt’s open forum discussion at John Daly’s website back in 2000. A snip of what I said….
” I based my Cycle 23 forecast on several things but one of my methods involves the actual latitudes of the planets. Conjunctions, oppositions, and alignments are also important but I have found the sharing of the same latitude to be very important. ”
And nobody to my knowledge had ever been considering the possible importance of this within the whole scheme of things. Not Landscheidt, Jose, Desmoulins , etc…
I even contacted Landscheidt on a couple of occasions through emails in hopes of him incorporating this into his own methodology but he was a little stubbborn and the talks basically got nowhere. A few others I contacted and sent some data to……Jean Pierre Desmoulins Jupiter-Venus sysmetry, Timo Niroma, Piers Corbyn, and of note within the solar field, Jo Ann Joeslyn, and the late Jack Eddy.
Oh and my Cycle 23 forecast didn’t hurt in the results department which is part of the science process. It was for a smoothed monthly peak of 115 and it ended up being 121. Which was closer than Landscheidt’s 105.
vukcevic,
I’m curious to know how you justify the “-3” in the “vukcevic formula” in:
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarField1.gif
Ron de Haan (21:13:40) :
[snip] too much work to cut out the offending part ~ ctm
What offending part?
Thanks to all who took the time to answer my question regarding climate vs tsi.
Paul Vaughan (06:11:12) :
vukcevic,
I’m curious to know how you justify the “-3″ in the “vukcevic formula” in:
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarField1.gif
Hi Paul,
The equation is basically same as the one used in tracking the periodicity of solar cycles. I subscribe to the Svalgaard, Schatten, Cliver method of cycles Rmax prediction., where polar fields just before cycle’s rump-up may intricate the cycle’s amplitude. This usually happens about 3 years prior to cycle’s max. Hence -3, keeping the reference year 1941 (or more precisely 1940.5) intact. There are three basic equations (polar fields/sunspot periodicity, SS anomalies and SS long term amplitude envelope), all feature this reference, while other parameters are orbital periods (or multiples) of two planets with the largest magnetospheres.
High correlation of all equations indicates that this is (hopefuly) a bit more than ‘just astrology’.
(p.s. astrology should be the correct name for the science that nowadays masquerades under the ‘star naming’ alias.)
Jim Hughes (05:11:40) :
Your right tallbroke Landscheidt did give some credit to others. I was unaware that someone who has access to Landscheidt papers. Any idea of how to contact them ?
I’m guessing that Ian Wilson is also the same author of a paper that I read while visiting Carls Smiths webiste
Jim, Carl passed away a couple of weeks ago, but the site is now under the care of Geoff Sharp. That is the Landscheidt document repository I referred to.
Last I heard Frau Landscheidt gave Theodor’s papers to a post grad student from Potsdam. I hope they turn up online sometime.
I like your take on my posting name. 🙂
Tau B00 has a magnetic cycle of about 2 years.
“This is the first detection of a magnetic cycle for a star other than the Sun. The role of the close-in massive planet in the short activity cycle of the star is questioned.
Two types of interactions (generically called Star-Planet interactions or SPI) were proposed to qualitatively explain the observations: magnetic and tidal interactions .
Magnetic interactions can induce reconnection events between the magnetic field lines of the star and those of the planet; the result is a modulation of the stellar activity with the orbital period.
Tidal interactions result in two tidal bulges on the star, and thus, enhanced activity will be modulated by half the orbital period. Potential phase lags (between the orbital conjunction and the epochs of activity variability enhancement) may result from the tilt of the magnetic axis relative to the rotational one.”
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0906/0906.4515v1.pdf
published 24/06/2009
Re: vukcevic (08:13:56)
Thanks for the notes vukcevic. You’ve inspired me to dust off a shelved wavelet investigation.
The flux once again has fallen to a 68.8 corrected (07/14 2000UT).
It would appear the flux resides on an baseline slightly elevated from the bottom.
Or, you could say that the side of the Sun that is inactive resides on the slightly elevated bottom.
Par for the course for the strange life of SC24.
In reviewing the comments on Landscheidt, I want to caution those studying his work to pay very careful attention to his struggle with mysterious phase relations. Landscheidt was seeing mysterious shadows of complex multivariate phase relations and at the time of his death he had still (regrettably) not managed to publish a final product. For those of you trying to reconcile his struggle with phase relations and his (early-stage) prediction of a minimum in 1990, I encourage you to consider alternate indices of solar activity, some of which are in ~anti-phase with those to which we normally pay attention. For example, one easy-to-discover solar index which reached a minimum in November 1990 is the absolute magnitude of the rate of change of sunspot number (on a log scale – shifted by +1 to avoid the singularity at log(0)). Applying variance-stabilizing transforms and differencing is not trickery; it is basic data analysis. Landscheidt was learning from his mistakes as time passed, something which is evident to a fair & patient judge tracing the development of his ideas. A major theme in Landscheidt’s work is that “things flip upside-down” — an interesting challenge is to investigate the complex, multivariate conditioning variables at play. It is important to stress that it would be a serious failure in judgement to regard Landscheidt’s works as a final product.
timbrom (13:40:25) : “As a direct descendant (possibly) of King Canute, can I just point out that he was demonstrating that he didn’t have the power to halt the tides. Entirely the opposite of the hubris that is frequently attributed to him.”
I’m sorry. I’m afraid I knew that. :I Sorry for a post with a picture used like if I was an AGW:er, or a tabloid, trying to reach highest effect no matter the truth. An immorality which may be the problem of our society?!
Waxman-TheSuperstitiousPeoplePeopleCanuteRuled bill. Decent pic:
http://etc.usf.edu/clipart/29500/29542/canute_29542_lg.gif
😉
Tallbloke ( 13:06:45)
Jim, Carl passed away a couple of weeks ago, but the site is now under the care of Geoff Sharp. That is the Landscheidt document repository I referred to.
Last I heard Frau Landscheidt gave Theodor’s papers to a post grad student from Potsdam. I hope they turn up online sometime.
I like your take on my posting name. 🙂
———-
TallnRich , Like it better ? 🙂
Thanks. Maybe we’ll be able to see all of his work one day. Even the controversial stuff that he may have laid low with after gaining some proper recognition.
I heard about Carl and I send my condolences to his family and friends. We had a couple of minor exchanges over at eastern some time back but nothing lengthy. But I also was never aware of his interest about the planets and how they effect the solar cycle.
What would the Sun look like, bare of sunspots, for a year ? What records do we have for a spotless year ? In 1810, Galileo & Co. were peering through earth observed telescopes. 200 years ago ! The data which to observe the sun now is fantastic. Sattellites beam data back to earth and display a wide array of solar spectrums for eager scientists to foam at the mouth over. And what is the verdict ? We don’t have a clue. Spew names all you want. Livingston & Penn. Michael Mann. Timo Niroma (my favorite). David Hathaway. etc… Dead or alive, the scientific community desperately wants answers to ageless questions. I just want one answered. What would the sun look like , now, with virtually no sunspots for a year or more? How does the sun go quiet? Should it be significant? Many jobs are at stake over these questions and that is a shame. When the world leaders in science should come together, they drift farther and farther apart. The sun is made up of layers of different activities. On the surface, plasma boils. Above it , temperatures rise dramatically. below it , a layer of magnetic fields bounce around in a cavity above the suns convection zone. For most of the recent recorded history, we haven’t seen the sun display such low level of activity. What if it continues? What effect, if any, will that have on the suns many different layers of activity? The one layer that intrigues me the most is the magnetic field. From fewer or more evenly flowed perturbences below the magnetic field, how would that magnetic field react? Magnetic fields have energy and that energy has to go somewhere. If not vertically, what about horizontally. Recently, I started reading up on solar magnetic flux tubes. Facinating stuff. With these tubes flattening out and lengthening, a huge amount of energy must be flowing through it. Enough to perhaps flow in a opposite direction than the suns orbit ? That’s all. Just answer that one little question. – David Alan –
david alan (03:59:43) :
That’s all. Just answer that one little question.
I count seven question marks. Which one is ‘that one little question’?
david alan (03:59:43) :
How does the sun go quiet?
When the several spoons which stir the porridge all stir against each other, the bowl swings round off centre and nothing gets properly mixed.
What would the sun look like , now, with virtually no sunspots for a year or more?
Like it looks right now, only instead of two 60+ virtually spotless day runs in 2008-9, there would be one 365 day virtual spotless run.
Interrupted only by a few Tiny Tim Mirage Spot rabbits somebody pulled out of a hat of a million pores on the face of the sun.