More on the NRC 10.7 observatory here
JohnA writes in:
Just in case you wondered whether the recent large sunspot indicated an upswing in radio flux from the Sun: I went and asked Ken Tapping.
The answer: http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2009/07/10/ken-tapping-still-no-sign-of-the-next-cycle/
This could be the first “radio quiet” solar cycle
Previously on this blog, I’d mentioned my skepticism that one decent sunspot marked the end of the hiatus in the solar cycle we’ve seen for nearly two years. It might be my nature, but everybody has been wrong before.
As part of my public duty to actually ask real scientists monitoring the Sun, I wrote to Dr Ken Tapping of Canada’s National Research Council at the Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics in British Columbia:
Dear Dr Tapping
For the first time in a very long time, the Sun has managed to produce a sunspot (1024) which has lasted more than a few hours.
Is there any sign of an upswing in radio emissions indicating an end to the hiatus?
Best regards
John
and Dr Tapping replied (with my emphasis):
Hi John,
Last weekend I saw a really nice sunspot group on the Sun, which could have been part of the new cycle. The solar radio flux went up a little while it was there. However now the flux has slumped back to low values again.
Some theorists have suggested the new cycle is currently under way, but that for some unknown reason we are not getting the spots to go with it. I’m not sure what that really means, so I am making no suggestion as to what is going on.
Being very conservative, according to the measurements being made under our Solar Radio Monitoring Programme, we have yet to see signs the next cycle is really under way.
Regards,
Ken
Now this is what I’d thought, that the nice sunspot (1024) we’d seen did not presage a change in the behavior of the Sun: the solar wind speed remained subdued, coronal holes remained very small, there were no prominences to speak of.
It also baffles me how “some theorists have suggested the new cycle is currently under way, but that for some unknown reason we are not getting the spots to go with it”. If there are very few sunspots and the radio flux remains extremely subdued, on what basis are these theorists making their statements?
It could be that this is the first “radio quiet” solar cycle … anyone believe that?
So for solar physicists, it remains “interesting times” and probably a time to clear out some old theories and start again.
My thanks to Dr Tapping for the correspondence.
The question that I would like see valid data on is how is the our Sun’s magnetic wave output performing? I am getting tired of getting zapped by near record levels of cosmic rays (and so is my DNA). Is there any official scientific definition of exactly what parameters need to be at certain levels to state with certainly that solar cycle 24 has begin?
It seems to me the answer to the question of how anyone can say sunspot cycle # 24 is currently underway is obvious. The polarity of all sunspots we’ve seen in recent months have been consistent with cycle # 24. The mixture of cycle # 23 and cycle # 24 polarities that marked the transition between cycles has disappeared in favor of exclusively cycle # 24 polarities. Doesn’t that, by definition, indicate cycle # 24. lame though it may be, is underway?
CH
“It also baffles me how “some theorists have suggested the new cycle is currently under way, but that for some unknown reason we are not getting the spots to go with it”.”
Surely you understand. It’s the same as the global warming in the “pipeline.”
“If there are very few sunspots and the radio flux remains extremely subdued, on what basis are these theorists making their statements?”
hope and change.
Now I wonder, will the Senate vote for Waxman-Markey-KingCanute or not?
http://www.toonpool.com/user/3035/files/king_canute_443255.jpg
Re: Claude Harvey (13:23:39)
I have been watching the polarity of the recent sunspots and although most of them seem to be cycle 24, some cycle 23 spots still show up. The last and largest spot had its polarity aligned north south for a while, broke into what looked to be a cycle 24 half and a leading cycle 23 spot. This is from memory so play the magnetogram loop and see if it is as clear as you recall it. I don’t think cycle 24 is well established yet. There is a reason solar cycles are called in retrospect. If this were the usual cycle you are right that cycle 24 spots would be regularly popping up by now.
“Some theorists have suggested the new cycle is currently under way, but that for some unknown reason we are not getting the spots to go with it.”
As with AGW necromancy in which the Consensus is seeing demons and evil netherworld opponents, science is going over to alchemic fantasy – probably in 50 years scientists will be wearng pointy hats and capes with moons, planets and stars on it. What ever can be imagined or divined will constitute proofs.
The idea of “cycles without spots” is not new. By using radioisotopes generated by cosmic rays as an inverse proxy of solar activity, we can see that the solar activity cycle continued more-or-less unabated through sunspot-free periods in the Maunder Minimum. It looks like the sun never stops cycling its magnetic activity, but that only relatively strong cycles produce sunspots, just as all wind makes waves but only strong wind makes whitecaps. (See: J Beer et al. An Active Sun Throughout the Maunder Minimum. Solar Phys. 181(1), 237–249. July 1998.)
This Finnish gentleman sees current state below the Dalton minimum:
http://www.examiner.com/x-13886-New-Haven-County-Environmental-Policy-Examiner~y2009m7d6-Solar-Physicist-Predicts-Ice-Age-What-happened-to-global-warming
Graph by Leif Svalgaard shows recovery of the solar flux (http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png), but broader look is not so convincing (http://www.leif.org/research/F107%20at%20Minima%201954%20and%202008.png) – since Leif´s graph starts exactly at 2008, where local maximum in F10.7 occurred.
As I understand it the “new cycle” has begun when #24 spots outnumber #23 spots.
I agree with Claude Harvey.
No point in getting irrational, the cycle, though weak, seems clearly underway. Unless the 10.7 flux has fallen back to old lows and cycle 23 spots start showing up there’s really not much argument.
I recall that Dr. Svalgaard has posted that he believes we are past the absolute minimum and that Cycle 24 has begun – although in an extremely slow and very subdued fashion.
I am not a scientist.
No matter whose graph I look at, if you back out to 2 solar cycles, it’s readily apparent how long and low of a slide SC23 came in on. SC24 is still bouncing around near the bottom, though it showed some activity at closeup, it’s still not changed a whole lot on the grand view.
I chalk that up to remembering how long it took to get to this point, and the grazing angle of descent.
Doubling the rate of descent for an expected ascent, the Flux will reach 80 average in about a year, unless it takes a good upturn.
It hasn’t done that yet.
It’s climing, no doubt.
What seems to worry some is that it’s taking it’s sweet time about it.
That it is.
You have to make up your mind Anthony, is this cycle ramping up or no, going back n forth it loses interest…
REPLY: I post things that interest me, such as the correspondence with Tapping. If you don’t like it, tough noogies. – Anthony
Gary from Chicagoland:
SC24 has started already (months now)…
The issue is that one sunspot does not make a cycle. As I’d suspected, the Sun is not producing more radio energy as you’d expect if the next cycle were really ramping up.
The question is why did Space.com not make a basic check of the radio emissions before issuing a news article claiming that the minimum was over? I did, and it took one e-mail to establish the facts.
Why am I doing the job of a journalist without the pay? Is this the new, cool, Internet way?
Well, cosmic rays, or not, the oceans seem to be heating up quite nicely.
Looks like we’re going to get a pretty good jump in temperatures in July.
I never read about Hurricanes/Typhoons being important in radiating heat out of the water and into the upper atmosphere/space. It seems to me they would have to disperse enormous amounts of heat away from the surface.
Has anyone ever looked into the chronological relationship between High SSTs, Huricanes/Typhoons, and La Ninas?
By every measured feature the Sun is in minimum, 26 months or so of reduced input to our thermal budget to be released by 2012 or sometime thereabouts.
This is the coolest July in my memory, high temp 83 in central MN and no prospects for more next week.
In ’83 we had 31 highs above 90 with three above 100.
No sweating El Nino here.
Why people keep bringing this into the GW “debate” I cannot understand.
However here is a plot of monthly average 10.7 flux
http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/4917/solar107month.jpg
from the link in the header data here
ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/monthly_averages/maver.txt
To my eye it looks to be on the way up unless it has taken a dive this month.
Kum Dollison said:
Were you thinking of August by any chance. Sitting here in Mountain View and spending time in Santa Clara, things seem to have been pretty cool and it is now July 12.
Here is something I didn’t notice posted here. Monthly mean sunspot numbers
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/MONTHLY
I have a post here:
http://www.houlihane.co.uk/blog/2009/07/12/observing-the-minimum-through-solar-flux/
which indicates a healthy ramp up of cycle 24, albeit at a very early stage. It is true to note that sunspots are looking a little different these days when compared to previous minima, but the flux appears fairly normal.
Kum Dollison (15:19:33) :
Well, cosmic rays, or not, the oceans seem to be heating up quite nicely.
The oceans are cooling down, the currently warmer surface is an indication that heat stored during the run of high cycles is now being sucked out into the cooler troposphere. This will produce modoki an el nino, followed by a downward step change in temperature.
Gary from Chicagoland (13:19:45) : Even with a few more cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere, their effect on your body is probably minimal. The effect actually seems to have not been determined, although it has been considered for decades. The decay of K and C-14 in your body is undoubtedly greater. Particularly the several C-14 atoms in our DNA which change to nitrogen each second.
the_Butcher: Going back and forth it loses interest? NASCAR and tennis fans have a few words for you. If there also were fans of the rock cycle, they’d be in there too, but too many people lose interest within a few laps.