Another entry from the weather is not climate department, this time courtesy of Tom Skilling, WGN-TV meteorologist.
Chicago has its coolest July 8 in 118 years
- By Tom Skilling
- July 9, 2009
For the 12th time this meteorological summer (since June 1), daytime highs failed to reach 70 degrees Wednesday. Only one other year in the past half century has hosted so many sub-70-degree days up to this point in a summer season — 1969, when 14 such days occurred.
Wednesday’s paltry 65-degree high at O’Hare International Airport (an early-May-level temperature and a reading 18 degrees below normal) was also the city’s coolest July 8 high in 118 years — since a 61-degree high on the date in 1891.
Rains on Wednesday were bothersome but generally light in the city, where 0.20 inches fell at Midway Airport. Heavier rains were recorded well west and southwest of Chicago, including an unofficial report of 0.93 inches at DeKalb and 0.60 inches in Pontiac.
Sunshine re-emerges Thursday and should boost temperatures back into the 80s. Southeast winds off Lake Michigan will limit shoreline highs to the mid-and-upper 70s. An isolated thunderstorm may bubble to life in far western sections of the area late in the day
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“matt v. (04:46:03) :
Lubos Motl
Good post. Another take on this is that most things in Nature occur in cycles . To recognize long term cycle changes among short term events or signals is true wisdom. We are seeing the early signs of a cooler cycle among the tail end of the warm cycle . Only a fool will say that when there is a nip in the air and the leaves start changing colour early that summer[or global warming] will last indefinitely.”
Sorry, you are wrong. *ALL* things in Nature occur in cycles. I do not know of anything, in Nature, that is not cyclical. Day, night. Moon, Sun. Winter, Summer etc etc…all cycles. Our whole being, as homosapiens, is cyclical. If the cycle didn’t change, “Lucy”, and probably “us”, would still be in trees.
Leif Svalgaard (00:13:57) :
ohioholic (22:21:18) :
I read Ryskin’s paper (quickly!). I think he is claiming that the short term small fluctuations in the earth’s magnetic field are due to ocean currents. He is not claiming that the currents can cause the field to flip or even change its magnitude significantly.
Gary from Chicagoland (19:04:20)
At low altitudes there is plenty of dust to act as CCNs. Clouds can only form if the air hass sufficient water vapour for the surrounding temperature.
How much more efficient is a cosmic ray, compared to a dust particle, at creating a cloud?
Joe (22:19:29) : Please be sensible as Leif has ponted out the output from the sun is relatively constant only changing the temp by 0.07C from peak to min output.
If I were to dose a half litre of water with 1*10e-6 grammes of Botulinin toxin D (LD50 of 0.04ug/100kg body weight) would you drink it?
It is after all only 0.002ppm and can surely have no effect whatsoever.
Ozone has even less presence in the atmosphere than CO2 but greatly reduces UV hittin the planet.
Just because the number is small it does not mean that it is insignificant!
“Jack Hughes (02:42:00) :
Don’t forget this is winter time here.
Temperatures were well below average during June, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) climate summary says.
Extremely low temperatures were recorded in the Waikato, Taumarunui, Taupo, southern Hawke’s Bay, Central Otago, the Kaikoura Coast, and some alpine areas of the South Island.
All other areas experienced below average temperatures and the national average temperature of 7.5degC was 0.7degC below the long-term average for June.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10582082”
Jack, are you in New Zealand? I’d give NIWA as much respect in it’s ability to do any real science as I would if I stepped in dog/cow/sheep excrement.
The G8 took one sane decision this week, boosting food supplies.
Unfortunately the budget will be handed over to the UN.
This is a guarantee for failure.
Don’t be surprised if a major part of the 15 billion dollar budged emerges again as anti meat propaganda and AGW/Climate Change promotion.
Like environmental organizations like WWF and Greenpeace who went political years ago, organizations like Oxfam develop all kinds of activities neglecting their core business. Instead of agricultural development with modern tools and techniques they serve the following motto: Every dollar we spend will keep Afrika Hungry.
If you don’t like it, send a lawyer.
Adam Soereg (03:31:02) :
I’ve just realized that there is a significant discrepancy between UAH and RSS in the case of the Tropics:
June 2009 value according to UAH is -0.003°c
June 2009 value according to RSS is 0.228°c
What could be the reason for this relatively large difference between the two satellite records in one particular region, while both SH and NH values are identical? Any opinion?
I’ve been told UAH anomalies tend to be on the low side compared to other indices at this time of year. Whether Roy Spencer or John Christy have commented on that I’m not sure, but if you asked them to, they might.
Meteorological Summer here in Hew Hampshire has been surprisingly wet and cool.
From NOAA:
“JUNE 2009 IN CONCORD WILL BE REMEMBERED FOR BEING VERY WET AND COOL.
THERE WAS NEARLY SIX AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN /6.46 INCHES/ IN
CONCORD THIS JUNE. THIS RANKS AS THE TENTH WETTEST JUNE IN THE PAST
142 YEARS AND WAS MORE THAN DOUBLE THE NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL.
ALTOGETHER THERE WERE 18 DAYS OUT
OF 30 WITH A TRACE OR MORE RAINFALL.
JUNE WAS COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 63.0
DEGREES. THIS WAS 1.9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL”
This has continued into July, though we are just now going into some closer to normal summer weather (though still slightly below-normal temps). The cool, rainy weather has adversely affected many crops in the State.
I would also like to point something out about temperature averages. With all of the cloudy, rainy days we’ve been having, obviously daytime highs have been much lower than average – I don’t have the actual figures handy, but I believe I saw they were some 6 Deg. below average. However, nighttime lows have been somewhat higher than normal, due to the cloud cover, thus giving the average of only 1.9 Deg. below normal which is a bit deceiving. The rainy, cool weather has hit the tourist industry especially hard, but also construction (what little of it is going on). We have not turned on our heat out of principle, but there have been many days with temps barely reaching 60 Deg, with no sun to even give us our passive solar (we have a house with southern exposure). I am sure others, though, have had to resort to heating. This may indeed be remembered as the “year without a summer”.
hotrod (21:11:47) It has been similar on the western slope, outside Carbondale to be more specific. Having lived in the same spot for 17 years, I saw the first twelve with two days over those years at 90° or above during that whole time. Then, we had a few by 2003 on, increasing to dozens of days by 2007. This year the warmest it has hit is 88°, just once. July 4th hit the low 70s, until a shower dropped it to the 50s by midafternoon, coolest 4th I’ve ever seen. The nights are cooler this summer too, historically in the low 50s, it’s been consistantly below 50°, and usually low 40s. But it’s just weather.
Patrick Davis, “Sorry, you are wrong. *ALL* things in Nature occur in cycles.”
And that is why climate models don’t work. We don’t know all the cycles, we don’t know the variability of the cycles and therefore, we cannot program computers that will derive a trend one way or another.
Is there a cycle for vulcanism on the planet? If so has anyone accurately determined it so that it can be programmed into a model? Don’t think so.
Too many cycles, too many variables, too many people in high places with brain lock on their own opinions without regard to the facts.
Meanwhile, NOAA is still cranking out its alarmist garbage with its “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States”: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts
If CO2 is warming the earth, where is the heat?
http://joannenova.com.au/2009/07/06/the-antidote-to-150-million-quadrillion-joules/
“Sorry, you are wrong. *ALL* things in Nature occur in cycles. I do not know of anything, in Nature, that is not cyclical.”
Never assert a negative. The Milankovich (sp?) cycles are not really cycles at all, since the variations in obliquity of the Earth are influenced by the orbit of the Moon, which is receding from the Earth at a slow but steady pace, never to come back. In other words, they will never repeat exactly, and they are known, as well as we can know anything about the climate, to produce major climate forcing changes.
Continental drift affects climate. It is not cyclical either.
I think this entire thread about being colder in some places Chicago but warmer in others is the best example of why an “average” global temperature makes no sense and and the miniscule +/- anomolies from that “average” make even less sense. Of course my livelyhood doesn’t depend on government or foundation grants.
” Flanagan (23:24:43) :
Don’t forget the US is one of the few regions in the world having rightnow slightly lower-than-normal temperatures.”
Not so.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20090708_e.png
Canada, Western Australia, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia (just virtually smooth the sparse blue dots in Central Asia, like GISS would) are all enjoying cooler than normal weather the week past. By my estimation, that image has it split about half and half (geographically): half above average, and half below average. Let’s see, that works out to what? Normal!
John A (01:03:17) :
they’re just beginning a very slight fall but are still much higher than the entire record over that time. The “fall” is very much within the normal variation of the neutron counts and means nothing.
Different stations see slightly different counts and the long term record is hard to keep at a constant calibration [Oulu is a habitual offender]. You have to look at many stations to get the true picture, e.g. [for the recent values] http://www.leif.org/research/Neutron-Monitors-Real-Time.htm
and some for the long-term trends:
http://www.puk.ac.za/opencms/export/PUK/html/fakulteite/natuur/nm_data/data/hermanus_e.html
or http://www.leif.org/research/Kiel-Cosmic-Rays.png
The cosmic ray intensity at each solar minimum [or rather 6-12 months later] returns to close to the same value, corresponding to minimum modulation. If anything there is a slight decrease of the intensity over time.
Paul Linsay (05:49:34) :
He is not claiming that the currents can cause the field to flip or even change its magnitude significantly.
But ohioholic (22:21:18) was, and that was my point.
tallbloke (01:41:49) :
An awful lot of heat energy has to get stored over multi-decadal periods
The heat stored has little to do with the atmospheric temperature or SST. Imagine that the only thing that happened is that TSI suddenly increased 0.1% and then stayed constant thereafter indefinitely at this higher level. The temperature would in a few months rise 0.07C and stay at that level indefinitely while the ocean [and the solid Earth] underneath slowly warms up as this extra heat slowly penetrates ever deeper. The temperature stays the same, no matter how deep [or how fast or slow] the penetration.
If the rise in TSI was not forever, but cyclical [as it is], the signal would be even smaller.
Tom in normal Florida (07:33:05) :
I think this entire thread about being colder in some places Chicago but warmer in others is the best example of why an “average” global temperature makes no sense and and the miniscule +/- anomolies from that “average” make even less sense. Of course my livelyhood doesn’t depend on government or foundation grants.
Well, yes and no. Regionally, climate — and the weather — is much more variable than globally. Lot of averaging goes into the global numbers, so they are not going to be very representative of any given locality. But as we can see with the satellite numbers — to sidestep the UHI and quality issues with surface stations — there are global variations that it is useful to monitor and attempt to understand. So I’m okay with attempting to measure an average global temperature.
But I do wish local and regional weather were better reported as to the inherent variability in what is “normal” weather (or the relevant climatology). In the part of the country where I live, I question whether there really is such a thing as a single daily “normal” temperature. That is because our weather is normally bimodal; unless we are stuck under a high pressure system that stays in place for a while, we have fronts moving across our region once or twice a week. Temperatures are always warmer than “normal” ahead of the front, and cooler than “normal” behind it. But, say, the cooler temperatures behind the front are normal…for that climate; and the warmer temperatures ahead of the front are normal. So the reported daily normal is usually wrong.
Being statistically literate, I’d rather see “normal” reported as a range based on standard deviation (even with bimodal weather).
I think Flanagan was just shown that HE is in denial. Turnabout is fair play.
Leif Svalgaard (07:48:58)
Leif, I seem to recall that you said the crf was beginning to trend downward sometime last Fall, maybe in response to a Archibald post.
I’ve looked at your plots — and thanks for them, as it gives a broader perspective than the two I usually look at, Moscow and Oulu — and I think you’d be hard pressed to produce a downward trend in any of them without cherry picking a start date.
This is one of those things we’ll see well only after it is truly underway. Since this is an odd-even transition, the decline, once it begins, should be rather sharp and noticeable (i.e. this should be a “peaked” maximum in crf, not a “rounded” maximum). But given the unusual nature of this minimum, who really knows how this one will turn out?
Thanks, Anthony, for a stimulating subject from the mob/fraud center of the USA. No reform movements in that city ever get very far off the ground. In fact, I think that the first “noted” serial killer lived and worked in Chicago. Great discussion in the comments. I am glad that Mr. Sun is well represented. The blog is hot while most of our weather is cool.
Over one billion are now starving world wide. The number will continue to rise. Where is the reporting of this disaster? Even Oxfam have spun it as “global warming” when it’s not. This is far too serious to play politics with. The utter lack of contingency planning for even a mild cold period is a sin.
Basil (08:04:14) :
I think you’d be hard pressed to produce a downward trend in any of them without cherry picking a start date.
Nature does the picking for us in providing the time for the minimum [sometime late last fall].
this should be a “peaked” maximum in crf, not a “rounded”
The ‘peaked’ may simply be because the other minima were short. Imagine that the current minimum would stretch on for another 30 years, then clearly we would not have a peaked crf.
“vibenna (00:35:35) :
E.M. Smith: you see it as the exact centre of the Bell curve. I see as the fourth equal lowest seasonal value since 1978. Also, the lowest five seasonal values are all in the last five years. See this link at cyrosphere today for a longer history with more perspective …”
I don’t see any perspective in an argument like that. Curves are curves, not zigzags. You’d expect arctic ice to just come roaring back rather than slowly and incrementally? It’s not just the change from some distance point, some cumulative count, or some deviation from an average but the change in the change that is informative.
In 2006 the AGW hoaxters were screaming that Lake Superior, et al, were going to dry up because it had gone down for the last several years and approaching 30″, IIRC, that summer. It’s still been low since then but the change in low has gone from 30″ to 6″ as of last month.
Thank God people aren’t using your method for unemployment figures and arbitrary starting points, ’cause they’d sound like idiots predicting no one will be employed by next summer, the way they were predicting ice at the north pole would melt last summer.
Here in Saskatchewan it is unseasonably cold, 10th of July and it’s 10 degrees C this morning! Spring was three weeks late, and my tomatos are pathetic. We also had a very cold, long winter up here in western canada with many records set for extreme cold.
I know it’s weather, not climate, but it’s frickin cold weather….
http://www.canadaeast.com/front/article/529471
Record cold wind chills of -50 C recorded overnight in Saskatchewan (jan 2009)
http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/story.html?id=e25537cf-e677-4c20-a61c-8584a406604d (january 2009)
How’s this for cold comfort? Saskatoon’s deep freeze is likely the longest streak of low temperatures below -25 C that has numbed this city since record-keeping began in 1892.
2009 – Cold streak sets new record, Saskatoon experiences 24 consecutive days of -25 C (jan 2009)
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Record+cold+temperatures+Saskatchewan/1531746/story.html (april 2009)
Record-cold temperatures in Saskatchewan
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Technology/Saskatoon+ties+record+cold+Wednesday+records+across+province/1378589/story.html (july 2009)
Saskatoon residents dealt with a record-tying cold on Wednesday (july 2009)
Well so far, I have heard it is colder than usual in New York, LA, and Chicago. Not a good time for the Democrats to be ringing the “World is on Fire” alarm. If they can’t energize the core, what hope do they have in “fly-over” districts.