Temperatures dropped to a record low in Prince Edward Island overnight Tuesday, with reports of frost throughout the province.
An official record low of 3.8 C was set early Wednesday morning at Charlottetown airport.
The previous record for that date was 5.1 C, set in 2005.
Bob Robichaud, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, said that to his knowledge, frost has never been reported before in July in P.E.I.
“That 3.8 we got last night kind of sticks out as being lower than some of the other records for anytime in early July,” Robichaud told CBC News on Wednesday.
“So we’re looking at a significant event,” he said.
Environment Canada has issued a frost risk warning in low-lying areas of the province for Wednesday night. The temperature is expected to dip to 4 C.
The forecast for Thursday, however, calls for sunny skies and a temperature of 22 C for the province.
Paul Vaughan (16:58:22) :
This is what I would describe as a rupture in the continuity of normalized wavelet harmonic cross-spectrum power between the absolute magnitude of the vector rate of change of terrestrial polar motion |Pr’| and the rate of change of the rate of change (i.e. 2nd derivative) of the distance of the sun from the solar system centre of mass r”:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/1930HarmonicPowerRupture.PNG
Hi Paul,
I note your graph has a wavelet period around the length of the chandler wobble.
So if I understand correctly, you are thinking there may be a link between the acceleration of the sun relative to the COM and the phase shift in the Chandler wobble, possibly due to differential gravitational effects on the earth moon system.
Good to see someone playing with Ray Tomes ideas in a new application by the way.
Was the sun accelerating inwards towards the COM or away at the time?
What stage of the 18.6 year cycle was the moon in, near maximum declination perchance?
The sun was dropping to minimum at the time. Do you think the Earth Moon system might be more susceptible to funny wobbles when the solar wind pressure is low?
tallbloke (00:23:25) “Was the sun accelerating inwards towards the COM or away at the time?”
Zero phase – but that’s not the story — it’s the context that’s interesting – the wave-train tightens, loosens, tightens, loosens, etc. There’s clearly a link with the LOD peak ~1912/1913 – more in the days ahead…
–
tallbloke (00:23:25) “What stage of the 18.6 year cycle was the moon in, near maximum declination perchance?”
Max – (also ~winter solstice / ~perihelion).
–
tallbloke (00:23:25) “Do you think the Earth Moon system might be more susceptible to funny wobbles when the solar wind pressure is low?”
No comments on solar.
–
Did you see these 2 tallbloke?
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/1931UniquePhaseHarmonics.png
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/ChandlerPeriodAgassizBC,CanadaPrecipitationTimePlot.PNG
They are the “take home” part of the chapter 1 story.
–
Thermodynamics was not among my few dozen engineering courses, but it is great to watch the exchange you & Bob are having.
Paul Vaughan (01:39:31) :
–
tallbloke (00:23:25) “What stage of the 18.6 year cycle was the moon in, near maximum declination perchance?”
Max – (also ~winter solstice / ~perihelion).
Also the closest Perigee of the year was Jan 15th just 2 hours after full moon, and the furthest Apogee was Jan 28th 1 day after new moon. Very unusual configuration.
Data here: http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html
–
Did you see these 2 tallbloke?
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/1931UniquePhaseHarmonics.png
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/ChandlerPeriodAgassizBC,CanadaPrecipitationTimePlot.PNG
Yes but I lost the context on the first. Lunar?
The precip/wobble plot is impressive, but you’ll get accused of cherrypicking if you don’t compare it to other locales.
My suspicions about the reasons for the massive downplaying of the true ocean heat content have been confirmed in this realclimate post from last year:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/06/ocean-heat-content-revisions/
“The larger long term trend in ocean warming reported here makes it much easier to reconcile the sea level estimates from thermal expansion with the actual rises. Those estimates do now match. But remember that the second big issue with ocean heat content trends is that they largely reflect the planetary radiative imbalance.”
Gavin is correct on the second count, but wrong on the first as my calcs show. The new ocean heat content estimate is around 2.5 too low to account for the observed sea level rise due to expansion.
Once again reality has been ‘adjusted’ to fit the theory.
tallbloke: You wrote, “1) The way warm anomalies ‘flow’ across cental america from the Carribean Gulf to the CalMex coasts indicates that clouds are the cause of a lot of the comings and goings of the more ephemeral sea surface anomalies.”
Agreed, the more transient anomalies appear to be SST responses to atmospheric processes, though I don’t know that I’d confine the atmospheric processes to clouds alone.
You wrote, “2) Apart from the main equatorial alternation of el nino, la nina, the other multiyear features (with an annual oscillation due to axial tilt) are the areas east of Austalasia and Japan. These drift north and south over periods of months. Do you think this drift is connected with shifts in the jet streams at the boundaries of the Hadley cells?”
I can’t answer your questions regarding jet streams and Hadley cells.
You wrote, “3) The residual warmth sometimes clinging to the sides of south and north America following el nino. Are they affected by the changes in LOD and AAM Paul has been working on, causing water to pile up against continental masses?”
I don’t know enough about Paul’s research to comment, but I would think that the “piling up” along the tropical west coasts of North and South America are at first a “mushrooming” caused by the volume of warm water being carried from west to east by the Equatorial Countercurrent. Eventually, the North and South Equatorial Currents catch up and drag the warm water back to the west. The clinging? Convection follows the warm water, causing a change in the sea surface winds. Would the winds then tend to “hold” the warm water against the coastline? Dunno.
You wrote, “I could set up a discussion forum, or you could host it? What do you think is best?”
Feel free to start commenting on the thread where I threw all of the SST anomaly videos.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/07/animations-of-weekly-sst-anomaly-maps.html
tallbloke (03:42:41) “The precip/wobble plot is impressive, but you’ll get accused of cherrypicking if you don’t compare it to other locales.”
There certainly has been no cherry-picking; Agassiz has been a core focus in my research for a year-&-a-half.
The 1930s drought was catastrophic & of continental scale. This is not in dispute. I am eager to (secure funding &) broaden the study spatially. [You may be interested to know that I think this will be a key to taking the last woodfortrees graph a step further. (I already have preliminary results.)]
–
tallbloke (03:42:41) “[…] I lost the context on the first.”
Maybe a look at the base harmonics will help:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/Cos(Phase(abs(Pr.),2r..,3LNC)).png
The number of possible blends & contrasts varies geometrically [2^(n-1)] with the number of harmonics considered [2^(1-1) = 1; 2^(2-1) = 2; 2^(3-1) = 4; 2^(4-1) = 8; etc.].
I’m not going to post all combos, but I will note that another of the combos relates to LOD. The combo I posted should help focus the attention of anyone investigating mechanisms.
–
I agree with you that this thread is wrapping up.
Cheers,
Paul.
E.M.Smith (20:48:09) : On the temperature history thing, we agree 🙂
We may never know the real history of global temperature, 100 year back or 100 million years back.
The entire issue of Global Warming is a cruel hoax designed to shift public thinking to allow more and more government regulation of our lives. It is arrogant to believe that government regulation could have any effect on Global temperature either up or down. Costly regulation and taxation will do nothing as it proposes a fix that will never work.