This graph got rather buried at the end of a long explanatory post showing the twists and turns I had to take to get the data. I think it needs front and center exposure, so I’m putting it here.
It is rather hot over asphalt. It’s even warmer when the temperature sensor malfunctions and creates a string of new record highs that the NWS does not see fit to remove from the records.
Graph of PHNL and PTWC station data for June 2009 – click for larger imageNote when the highs (Tmax) converged for the first time this month to within one degree.
The data from the two Oahu stations, 3.9 miles apart on the south shore. When plotted side by side, was telling. I marked missing data, the record high events, and when the ASOS was repaired.
Which station is more representative of the climate of Oahu? One is at an airport, one is not. Which station is doing a more accurate job of depicting climate? Details here.
Honolulu airport ASOS looking south – photo from NOAA, annotations added
This is the same NWS that predicts daily temps for agriculture uses? 40% chance of showers, high of 71? Maybe a good day for spraying? Not. It has been pelting cold rain all day and at 4:04 we still haven’t gotten above 54. However, I went fishing anyway since spraying is out of the question. Rivers are as high as I have ever seen them. But I caught 3 very nice trout anyway.
According to the very same NWS that constantly predicts hot sweaty weather, our growing day degree rankings are not as good as they used to be.
JOSEPH (354329)
Extremes
Highest Daily GDD (base 50)
Days: 1/1 – 12/31
Length of period: 1 day
Years: 1893-2009
Rank Value Ending Date
1 33 7/26/1928, 7/15/1917
3 32 7/13/2002
4 31 7/23/2003, 7/19/2003, 7/25/1928
7 30 8/6/2005, 7/21/1946, 7/27/1939, 7/12/1926
And the hottest records are similar.
JOSEPH (354329)
Extremes
Highest Daily Maximum Temperature (degrees F)
Days: 1/1 – 12/31
Length of period: 1 day
Years: 1893-2009
Rank Value Ending Date
1 100.0 7/8/1919, 7/10/1917
3 99.0 7/12/2002, 7/9/1919, 7/16/1917, 7/15/1917, 7/14/1917
8 98.0 7/14/2002, 7/13/2002, 7/14/1935
Only periods with no missing data were evaluated.
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
That was back when tomatoes were red and cantelope ripened. Now we can’t even get the lowly pumpkin to market.
Right now, me thinks the NWS knows squat.
I am confused by the graph. The Pacific Warning Center is in Palmer, Alaska.
REPLY: look at the photo of the building int he previous post. There are two warnings centers. – Anthony
I just went back and checked the AccuWeather archives, since we’ve just had 2 days in a row where the average daily temperature had a positive departure from normal, which brings the total for the month to 3, and going back into May, 3 for the last 29 days. As we approach the solstice, heating degree days for the month exceed cooling degree days by 50%. This is for a town that has had a long reputation as the warmest reporting city in the state of Minnesota. A question comes to mind as I type this. As I recall, one of the consequences of all the gloom and doom forecasts of “evaporating” Arctic ice is supposed to be a cascade of rising temps from increasing areas of open water absorbing more solar insolation. Given that in the last two years, we have experienced summer ice loss in the Arctic which has been fairly dramatic, or dramatized, shouldn’t we be seeing some signs of the appearance of that phenomenon, by now?
Hold everything! For the first time in what seems like forever, there is truly FANTASTIC news tonite out of Washington with regard to the climate change bill!!!
http://www.rollcall.com/news/36041-1.html
“Peterson: Democrats Back to Square One on Climate Bill”
“House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) on Friday said climate change bill negotiators are heading back to the drawing board after discussions between Democrats “blew up last night.””
end quote
The negotiations “blew up” because all of the farm and industrial state dems are figuring out that all of the enviro-west coast dems want their states, and their states best employers, to take it in the teeth (or somewhere) just for the glory of feeling good about themselves. That ain’t happenin.
Let’s all hope that what just got blowed up stays blowed up! This bill ain’t on no Stairway to Heaven – it’s goin’ down like a led zeppelin!!! (cue up Black Dog)
From Jim Weyman’s letter:
Who’s going to write Thomas Karl at NCDC and let him know they should drop
the airport climate obs because they are only adequate for flight operations?
Foz (14:49:03) :
REPLY: Well said Ric, but many many ASOS stations are part of the USHCN, which is currently our main operational climate network. – Anthony
Speaking of records, it has been a very nice June in Phoenix. Here’s what the National Weather Service had to say today:
Statement as of 5:50 PM MST on June 19, 2009
… Sub-100 degree streak continues at Phoenix Sky Harbor…
For fifteen consecutive days this month… daytime high temperatures have
remained below 100 degrees at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport. The current
streak of sub-100 degree days commenced on 5 June. This ties for the
third-longest sub-100 degree streak ever observed during the month of
June. The longest streak of sub-100 degree days for Phoenix during
June… 17 days… occurred from 1 June to 17 June in 1913. Daytime
high temperature data for Phoenix exist from 1896 to present day.
The average daily high temperature during our current 15-day
sub-100 degree stretch… 95.2 degrees… was fourth coolest on
record. The coolest average daytime high for 5-19 June… 91.8
degrees… occurred in 1967. Interestingly… the third coolest 5-19
June occurred only 11 years ago… in 1998… when the average daily
high temperature was 95.1 degrees.
Although the current streak of sub-100 degree days in June is
impressive… it is not unusual to experience sub-100 degree high
temperatures in June. The long term average number of sub-100 degree
days in June is 9… although that number lowers to 6 if the considered
period is shortened to 1971-2008. In addition to June 2009… recent
junes with an above-normal number of sub-100 degree days in Phoenix
include 1995 with 12 days… 1997 with 11 days… 1998 with 14
days… 1999 with 11 days… and 2005 with 10 days. On the opposite
side of the Ledger… since 2000… 5 or fewer sub-100 degree June days
occurred in all but two junes… June 2005 and June 2009… and no
sub-100 degree June days occurred in 2006.
National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at
Weather.Gov/Phoenix
Regarding Jim Weyman’s statement: I found this well done, informative, and sensible. I think he should be commended for providing this. So, thank you Jim – even though I’m reading it on WUWT.
Some of us mentioned yesterday that airports need very local and timely atmospheric characteristics. Same with me if I want to go on a horse ride, picnic, or to a volunteer work party on a USFS hiking trail. The latter I did today (with Washington Trails Association) thinking it would be basically dry with the possibility of rain (20 – 30%) after 11 AM. It was raining when we arrived at the trailhead (8 AM) just east of Snoqualmie Pass (WA State) and continued to rain or drizzle all day – again raining hard as we finished about 3:30 PM.
This is somewhat like a plane leaving the mainland with the expectation of arriving at Honolulu with partly sunny skies only to find it raining – you land in the rain. When working in the Cascades one always carries rain gear. When the forecast fails you revert to Plan B – work in the rain.
So far, fair enough. When your climate change prediction is way off but you have mandated drastic changes in the society – What is Plan B?
For a real eye opener on the HNL ASOS station, have a look at the error log
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/hofnasos/HONAsosSyslog?wban=22521
for some reason they stopped reporting in 2006, but just look at the number of errors! Suitable for aviation?
Also, visit this URL for “climate sites” of Hawaii
http://www.weather.gov/climate/locations.php?wfo=hnl
Click on Honolulu, and tell me what station you get.
– Anthony
wws (17:30:43) :
More on that here…
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/dem-mutiny-on-climate-bill-grows-says-peterson-2009-06-10.html
DaveE.
Hi Anthony,
I got Honolulu International!
Cheers
Bryan
Thanks for that, Dave. That’s from last week – note the date in it. That article says Pelosi demanded that all the problems be worked out by June 19 (today). Instead, the short term process has collapsed in acrimony. And it’s collapsed because the AGW true believers can’t accept that no one who wants to be reelected can go for their job destroying bill.
And this is just in the house!
The wheels are coming off this wagon as we watch. Hooray!
Ah… thanks for the heads up on the typo.
wws (19:25:49) :
I knew it was old news, but getting the full story is going to be hard
DaveE.
NOAA makes this data available to others who use it for purposes it was not intended for. If anyone has the time start looking here:
http://www.cio.noaa.gov/Policy_Programs/info_quality.html
Please keep up the efforts. After 35+ years in industrial applied science, I had started to become increasingly discouraged by the lack of scientific thought in government, academia and business. I found hope on your site and a couple others.
You can not imagine the pleasure that comes from finding a few that pursue scientific understanding instead of pushing a political science or esoteric publication agenda. Please keep up the efforts.
DAMN good sleuth work, Anthony.
Way to go….and thank you for your tenacity on this squirrely, slimey issue.
CHRIS
NORFOLK, VA, USA
Here’s what they think of the energy bill in Pennsylvania:
http://billsblogpa09.blogspot.com/2009/06/map-shows-true-cost-of-national-energy.html
Ric-I was at Sky Harbor in the 1990’s at the USFS Tanker Base,remember those 110 F.
temps and more like 120 in the Aircraft. I also remember then that the Weather Service office was right next to a very black asphalt ramp….
Since Australia is also in the Pacific I thought this OT comment might be of interest here.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25661163-14743,00.html
Death? Plain and simple, an ETS threatens to kill the Australian economy. It is a direct attack on our core comparative advantage: bluntly, the production of CO2.
Power generated from cheap and abundant coal is a, perhaps the, core building block of both our standard of living and our entire economy. Not just the bits directly linked to it.
Exports of coal and iron ore, which “someone” else turns into CO2 — with our government and elites discreetly averting their virtual reality eyes, like a Victorian lady of virtue — keep us from true “banana republicanism”.
No one else comes close to producing CO2 as efficiently as we do. There are dozens of countries jostling to be a “clever country”. We are unchallenged as the leading tree-food producer.
Here we have another good post showing the importance of the Surface Station Project and similar efforts. Great job.
Maybe this is a dumb question.. If they want to use data from that site for daily weather and climate study, as well as checking egg frying temps on the runway, why not set up another sensor in a suitable location and feed it through the same gear as a second, more climate accurate, data set. I mean my $199 Oregon Scientific WM968 weather station can run and graph multiple sensors. If this budget station can do it, the NWS can probably add a sensor too.
I still have questions about the sensor calibrations. Our man from the NWS says that they were in spec, but replacement brought a shift in the data. I agree that we shouldn’t just blindly adjust it, but it should be a routine procedure to analyze it against correlated data and adjust it as the science permits.
On the USGS Internet river gauges, they are clear that it is provisional data being shown, and that it is subject to revision. They occasionally verify the remote readings in person and adjust it as needed.
The next question is, what is the allowable error in calibration?
Thanks for your efforts!
Anthony,
OT but well worth a read I think – this is a review of a meeting between skeptics and alarmists (rare indeed) downunder and it speaks volumes about the challenge that lies ahead.
http://climaterealists.com/?id=3610
please include celsius in your graphs so that the rest of the world also understands it.
Check these comments on the BBC blog
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2009/06/climate_meltdown_yet_fusion_la.html
Comment #1:
“in graduate school, one of the “side projects” I was given my my mentor and worked on just for fun – was developing models for playing blackjack… none were foolproof, and we are now talking about a system (blackjack table and players) much more simple than the earth and its climate system.
…
If I were to present a paper claiming a new and novel solution to Fermat’s last equation, and provided only the result of my solution and not how I arrived at it (i.e., the proof) – I would be laughed at, and no one would publish it. This type of thing happens every day with the climate models – well, show me the proof, let us scrutinize the model, as we can’t scrutinize the results without the models used to obtain them. Then we will see how little we really know.
…
Presenting the results of models without the models themselves is meaningless and adds nothing to the scientific knowledge base.”
Comment #2:
“Maybe as a journalist you should be investigating the models not defending them.”
Well played, guys. It pays to comment early….
Is it really FUBAR or is it just SNAFU ?