No we aren’t talking pianos, but Grand Solar Minimums. Today a new milestone was reached. As you can see below, we’ve been leading up to it for a few years.
(Update: based on comments, I’ve updated the graph above to show the 2004 solar max by sliding the view window to the left a bit compared to the previous graph. – Anthony)
A typical solar minimum lasts 485 days, based on an average of the last 10 solar minima. As of today we are at 638 spotless days in the current minimum. Also as of today, May 27th, 2009, there were no sunspots on 120 of this year’s (2009) 147 days to date (82%).
Paul Stanko writes:
Our spotless day count just reached 638.
What is so special about 638? We just overtook the original solar cycle, #1, so now the only cycles above this are: cycles of the Maunder minimum, cycles 5 to 7 (Dalton minimum), and cycles 10 + 12 to 15 (unnamed minimum).
Since the last one is unnamed, I’ve nicknamed it the “Baby Grand Minimum”, in much the same way that you can have a baby grand piano. We would now seem to have reached the same stature for this minimum. It will be interesting to see just how much longer deep minimum goes on.
Of course it depends on what data you look at. Solar Influences Data Center and NOAA differ by a few days. As WUWT readers may recall, last year in August, the SIDC reversed an initial count that would have led to the first spotless month since 1913:
NOAA did not count the sunspot, so at the end of the month, one agency said “spotless month” and the other did not.
From Spaceweather.com in an April 1st 2009 article:
The mother of all spotless runs was of course the Maunder Minimum. This was a period from October 15, 1661 to August 2, 1671.
It totaled 3579 consecutive spotless days. That puts our current run at 17.5% of that of the Maunder Minimum.
By the standard of spotless days, the ongoing solar minimum is the deepest in a century: NASA report. In 2008, no sunspots were observed on 266 of the year’s 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days (85%):
The lack of sunspots in 2008, made it a century-level year in terms of solar quiet. Remarkably, sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower.
We do indeed live in interesting times.
Mrs Whatsit (09:36:28) :
I will offer this on your questions:
“Does anyone know what percentage of the earth’s surface is actually covered by roofs, of whatever color? I understand Anthony’s point that UHI distortions in temperature in heavily-populated places might be reduced by white roofs in those areas, but that’s not quite the same thing. Is there really enough roof surface on the planet that increasing their reflectivity could significantly affect global temperatures?
It would be lovely if somebody with more knowledge than I have would address whether there is any rational basis at all for this proposal . . . or if it’s actually as loony as it sounds.”
There is very little roofed area compared to the entire globe, so painting roofs white will have very little direct effect on albedo. However, there may be some reduced energy consumption for air conditioning when/if roofs are painted white. The reduced energy consumption also reduces the exhaust heat from air conditioners, and the waste heat from fossil and especially nuclear power plants.
The flip side, of course, is that white roofs do not absorb solar energy in cold weather, which increases the heating requirements.
For what it is worth, my home in Dallas, Texas (a very hot summer area) was very hot and difficult to cool when it was new. I had an asphalt shingle roof of a medium brown color. I solved the cooling problem by adding attic insulation, installing wind-turbine roof vents, and blocking the sun’s rays on the west side by building a trellis for morning-glory vines. The vines had beautiful flowers, and made a nice green shade for the west wall. Another energy-saving technique is to shade the air conditioner’s condenser, so that direct sunlight does not hit it.
Mr Lynn,
I would rather be ‘made’ to paint my roof a lighter color and to have roads re-specified for lighter shades, than to be ‘made’ to do what our AGW friends are trying to make us do now and in the future.
John Finn (02:45:57) :
From the “Blankest Years” bar chart. I notice the following:
1. Two of the ‘blankest’ years, i.e. 1913 and 1912, were at the start of the early 20th century warming period.
2. The warmest year in the US (1934) came just one year after 5th ‘blankest’ year (1933). A time when the world, in general, was warming strongly.
3. The least ‘blank’ year in the chart (1944) occurred just at the time the world entered a long term cooling phase.
Do you think we might be reading a bit too much into this SSN/climate correlation.
———————
It is also possible that 1997 was that hot peak and that we might even have a very small cycle 24, if we get one… Conclusion, there is not pattern on previous cycle history to know what the sun will do next.
Mr. Lynn
I did the actual testing and a white container radiates less heat than a black container. If you have fewer hours of direct sunlight in the winter, than darkness, you would save energy with a White house.
OT For Anthony:
Sea level increase! http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090527/sc_nm/us_climate_usa_sealevel_1
RE : JP (05:58:29) :
“Let us hope there isn’t a major volcanic erruption like the 1815 Tambora erruption.”
I’d much rather take my chances with a cooling trend AND another Tambora then with the current crop of politicians in Washington and most of the statehouses.
To whom it may know it: If ghosts spots/one pixel spots were discounted or counted like the old good days, how many spotless days we should have by now?
David Corcoran (02:41:21) : “…And wouldn’t tinfoil reflect the sun even better than white paint?”
Actually, aluminum foil and tinfoil are not as reflective under some conditions as plain white paint. Especially if they’ve been out in the sun for a long time. But the real potential for white roofs isn’t for UHI reduction; they have a measurable effect on air conditioning loads for the houses beneath them. The benefits go on and on.
Sonicfrog (06:52:38) : “Someone asked: ‘How low can [solar flux] go?’ Why, the answer is obvious – To 42, of course!!!!!”
Don’t panic.
Mr Lynn (09:39:54) : “…I’ve got the blankety-blank furnace on!”
Yeah, our Los Angeles furnace came on last night, too.
Pamela Gray (06:44:46) : “…Petite Grand – This is the smallest of the horizontal pianos. It ranges in size from 4 feet 5 inches to 4 feet 10 inches, it is indeed small but still powerful….”
Dang. I always thought our Sohmer was a baby grand, but at 4’6″, I guess it’s only a petite. Can I include the bench? Or measure it on a sort of diagonal, like TV screens?
“Mrs Whatsit (09:36:28) :
It would be lovely if somebody with more knowledge than I have would address whether there is any rational basis at all for this proposal . . . or if it’s actually as loony as it sounds.”
As has been noted, the actual area of roofed property is insignificant as regards ‘warming’. I’ve seen mention that if the entire global population were given 1/4 acre, it wouldn’t cover Australia. (cite)
It would increase the energy efficiency of your home, both in Summer & Winter. In Summer by reducing needs for cooling and Winter by reduced heat losses.
DaveE.
Chris Kaiser (09:59:51) :
It be be more interesting to see the # of spotless days in any rolling 12 month period since records began. Can your data be sorted that way? It would be more meaningful. The Jan-Dec ‘year’ is too arbitrary.
Tomo Niroma, http://www.tilmari.pp.fi/tilmari6.htm Uses rolling data samples.
Dave Middleton (09:42:01) :
I think the relationship is a lot more complicated than SSN vs. Temp’s.
I’m sure – but has anyone yet found a relationship that doesn’t break down after about 5 cycles. Don’t you think it’s possible that the apparent short-term correlations between various solar parameters and climate are just coincidences.
DaveE,
Your point is well made, but only underscores the amazing thing that Chu has admitted to:
AGW is bunk.
If simply increasing the reflectivity on roofs and roads can impact climate as much as most of America’s car fleet allegedly impacts by way of CO2, then the problem, and its solutions, have both been masively misrepresented in the public square.
We already had this white roof conversation yesterday in the other story but if you want to learn more about roof colour and reflection/emission, take a look at http://www.fsec.ucf.edu/en/publications/html/FSEC-CR-670-00/
But remember that the colour you see are those that don’t get absorbed. When a surface reflects all the visible spectrum you see it as white… but it will most likely absorb other wavelenghts outside the visible spectrum (i.e. infrared, UV, etc).
And we just had the fifth warmest April, globally, in recorded history. (For some reason, this blog was too busy reporting data on individual countries which happened to be colder than average to report that the world experienced yet another warm spring. I guess we all do what we can.)
Was the Little Ice Age of the Maunder Minimum also so warm? Or maybe they don’t make ice ages like they used to.
“hunter (11:43:58) :
DaveE,
Your point is well made, but only underscores the amazing thing that Chu has admitted to:”
Which is no more nor less than intended. 😉
DaveE.
What is the basis for the red line on the graphic continuing into the future?
The vicissitudes of Excel, I imagine.
We seem to be back in the white roofs topic again.
I think it could be helpful, but it depends upon your local climate. How can we calculate the cooling in the summer v. the increased need for heating in the winter?
One poster asserted that the winter sun is too for a dark roof to make much difference. Yet I recall an experiment where Mr. Watts poured ashes on white snow and the snow melted in the sunshine, so perhaps the winter sun is not too weak.
I, like others, am waiting in anticipation too to see what low level cloud cover has done over the last 2 years. Certainly if one looks one step up in Svensmark’s theoretical cosmoclimatological (is that a word?) chain we are seeing some very interesting things:
http://tinyurl.com/mroryf
If Svensmark is right, I would expect to see low altitude cloud levels at there highest since satellite records began.
And wouldn’t tinfoil reflect the sun even better than white paint?
Yes it would. Which is why reflective metal roofs are common in Australia.
BTW, reflectivity and albedo are not the same thing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo
And reading Ray’s link (repeated below) galvanized steel (tinfoil looking, although tinfoil is aluminium) reflects most solar radiation.
http://www.fsec.ucf.edu/en/publications/html/FSEC-CR-670-00/
About 4-5% of the US land area is considered “urban”, but of course only a fraction of that consists of pavement or roofs. Decreasing sunlight absorption by buildings and pavement would have a negligible effect on global temperatures, but could have a significant local effect; and most of the US population lives in “urban” areas. Benefits would include lower summer air conditioning costs and reduced deaths from heat waves, offset by increased winter heating costs.
I don’t mind the concept of white roofs, but my eyes tear at the very thought of walking/driving along white pavement. Presumably there are other colors/coatings that would be nearly as effective but easier on the eyes.
skeptic:
Your assertion is in doubt as historical records are constantly revised downward.
See:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/04/08/rewriting-history-time-and-time-again/
Baby Grands aren’t much use anyway! The bass strings are too short, and have to be thickly spun with copper wire to make them heavy enough to produce a loud tone. This results in out-of-tune harmonics which make the pitch rather indefinite. Give me a good Bosendorfer Imperial any day (as long as it doesn’t cause an ice age)! (Wish I had the money to buy one!)
OK. Tell me THIS is off topic.
The latest albedo from earthshine:PALL¶E ET AL.: EARTHSHINE TRENDS 1999-2007
http://bbso.njit.edu/Research/EarthShine/literature/Palle_etal_2008_JGR.pdf
fig 2
albedo is increasing since 2000
It looks like WUWT has become a dominating factor in regard to skeptic climate news.
This is a must read, Global Warming Hoax Weekly Round-Up, May 29th 2009 http://dailybayonet.com/?p=1519
Especially the Clarkson test of the Toyota Prius!
skeptic,
I doubt it very much.
At this point in the AGW mania, the promoters have deeply compromised integrity of the data.