Catlin Artic Ice Survey: An Annie Hall Moment

Guest post by Steven Goddard
http://img2.timeinc.net/ew/dynamic/imgs/080424/annie-hall_l.jpg
In Woody Allen’s classic 1977 movie “Annie Hall,” there is a wonderful scene in a theatre queue where he is having a heated argument with a Columbia University academic about the meaning of Marshall McLuhan’s writing.  His opponent is getting quite agitated, so Woody Allen pulls Marshall McLuhan out from behind a sign to prove his point.

Man in Theatre Line: Oh, really? Well, it just so happens I teach a class at Columbia called “TV, Media and Culture.” So I think my insights into Mr. McLuhan, well, have a great deal of validity!

Woody Allen: Oh, do ya? Well, that’s funny, because I happen to have Mr. McLuhan right here, so, so, yeah, just let me…

[pulls McLuhan out from behind a nearby poster]

Woddy Allen: come over here for a second… tell him!

Marshall McLuhan: I heard what you were saying! You know nothing of my work! You mean my whole fallacy is wrong. How you got to teach a course in anything is totally amazing!

Woody Allen: Boy, if life were only like this!

Sometimes life is like that.  Pen Hadow has been reported to be telling the press some interesting things this week :

Arctic explorer Pen Hadow has warned that the polar ice cap he has been examining to gauge the extent of climate change appears far thinner than expected after trekking more than 250 miles to the North Pole

and from the Catlin Web Site :

Expedition Leader Pen Hadow revealed that initial Survey results show the average ice thickness in the region to be 1.774m.

Fortunately, there is an expert standing behind the sign.  The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research has just completed a much more expansive investigation of Arctic Ice, and yes they did actually make it to the North Pole – the old fashioned way – in an airplane.  Below is the original German text and the Google translation :
At the North Pole ice sheet is thicker than expected
Das Forschungsflugzeug “Polar 5” beendet am Dienstag in Kanada seine jüngste Arktis-Expedition.

The research aircraft Polar 5 “ended on Tuesday in Canada’s recent Arctic expedition.
Bei dem Flug haben Forscher die aktuelle Eisstärke am Nordpol gemessen, und zwar in Gebieten, die nie zuvor überflogen worden sind.
During the flight, researchers have Eisstärke the current measured at the North Pole, and in areas that have never before been overflown.
Das Ergebnis ist überraschend.
The result is surprising.
Das Meer-Eis in den untersuchten Gebieten ist offenbar dicker, als die Wissenschaftler vermutet hatten.
The sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently thicker than scientists had suspected.
Normalerweise sei neu gebildetes Eis nach zwei Jahren gut zwei Meter dick.
Normally, ice is newly formed after two years, over two meters thick.
“Hier wurden aber Eisdicken von bis zu vier Metern gemessen”, sagte ein Sprecher des Bremerhavener Alfred-Wegener-Instituts für Polar- und Meeresforschung.
“Here were Eisdicken up to four meters,” said a spokesman of Bremerhaven’s Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research.
Für die Wissenschaftler steht dieses Ergebnis derzeit noch im Widerspruch zur Erwärmung des Meerwassers.
For scientists, this result is still in contradiction to the warming of the seawater.

Another focal point of the campaign were large-scale measurements of ice thickness in the inner Arctic, which were conducted in close collaboration of the Alfred Wegener Institute together with the University of Alberta. An ice-thickness sensor, the so-called EM-Bird, was put into operation under a plane for the first time ever. To conduct the measurements, Polar 5 dragged the sensor which was attached to a steel cable of eighty metres length in a height of twenty metres over the ice cover. Multiple flights northwards from various stations showed an ice thickness between 2.5 (two years old ice in the vicinity of the North Pole) and 4 metres (perennial ice in Canadian offshore regions). All in all, the ice was somewhat thicker than during the last years in the same regions, which leads to the conclusion that Arctic ice cover recovers temporarily. The researchers found the thickest ice with a thickness of 15 metres along the northern coast of Ellesmere Island.

So the question is – why does the suspect Catlin data get unlimited press coverage, while the comprehensive data of the Wegener Institute gets buried by the press?  Is it possible that some members of the press have an agenda?
Woody Allen made some great movies in the 1970s, while the press was up to it’s usual antics – as reported by The Business and Media Institute.
The first Earth Day was celebrated on April 22, 1970, amidst hysteria about the dangers of a new ice age. The media had been spreading warnings of a cooling period since the 1950s, but those alarms grew louder in the 1970s.
Three months before, on January 11, The Washington Post told readers to “get a good grip on your long johns, cold weather haters – the worst may be yet to come,” in an article titled “Colder Winters Held Dawn of New Ice Age.” The article quoted climatologist Reid Bryson, who said “there’s no relief in sight” about the cooling trend.
Journalists took the threat of another ice age seriously. Fortune magazine actually won a “Science Writing Award” from the American Institute of Physics for its own analysis of the danger. “As for the present cooling trend a number of leading climatologists have concluded that it is very bad news indeed,” Fortune announced in February 1974.
“It is the root cause of a lot of that unpleasant weather around the world and they warn that it carries the potential for human disasters of unprecedented magnitude,” the article continued.
That article also emphasized Bryson’s extreme doomsday predictions. “There is very important climatic change going on right now, and it’s not merely something of academic interest.”
Bryson warned, “It is something that, if it continues, will affect the whole human occupation of the earth – like a billion people starving. The effects are already showing up in a rather drastic way.” However, the world population increased by 2.5 billion since that warning.
Fortune had been emphasizing the cooling trend for 20 years. In 1954, it picked up on the idea of a frozen earth and ran an article titled “Climate – the Heat May Be Off.”
The story debunked the notion that “despite all you may have read, heard, or imagined, it’s been growing cooler – not warmer – since the Thirties.”
The claims of global catastrophe were remarkably similar to what the media deliver now about global warming.
“The cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people in poor nations,” wrote Lowell Ponte in his 1976 book “The Cooling.”
If the proper measures weren’t taken, he cautioned, then the cooling would lead to “world famine, world chaos, and probably world war, and this could all come by the year 2000.”
There were more warnings. The Nov. 15, 1969, “Science News” quoted meteorologist Dr. J. Murray Mitchell Jr. about global cooling worries. “How long the current cooling trend continues is one of the most important problems of our civilization,” he said.
If the cooling continued for 200 to 300 years, the earth could be plunged into an ice age, Mitchell continued.
Six years later, the periodical reported “the cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed.
A city in a snow globe illustrated that March 1, 1975, article, while the cover showed an ice age obliterating an unfortunate city.
In 1975, cooling went from “one of the most important problems” to a first-place tie for “death and misery.” “The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind,” said Nigel Calder, a former editor of “New Scientist.”
He claimed it was not his disposition to be a “doomsday man.” His analysis came from “the facts [that] have emerged” about past ice ages, according to the July/August International Wildlife Magazine.
The idea of a worldwide deep freeze snowballed.
Naturally, science fiction authors embraced the topic. Writer John Christopher delivered a book on the coming ice age in 1962 called “The World in Winter.”
In Christopher’s novel, England and other “rich countries of the north” broke down under the icy onslaught.
“The machines stopped, the land was dead and the people went south,” he explained.
James Follett took a slightly different tack. His book “Ice” was about “a rogue Antarctic iceberg” that “becomes a major world menace.” Follett in his book conceived “the teeth chattering possibility of how Nature can punish those who foolishly believe they have mastered her.”
0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

152 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
J.Hansford
May 17, 2009 5:24 pm

Bill said… “Which could be more accurate a man with drill and tape or a piece of electronics trying to determine the snow-ice interface. I would suggest the former.”
Bill…. Wegener’s team have tested the equipment by drilling holes to compare with electronic readings….. Any Arctic ice will do. It doesn’t have to be Caitlins ice, ya know.
So we have a set of data from a group of scientists in an aeroplane and a set of opposing data from a group of AGW activists playing explorers on the ice…… Hmmm, who you gonna believe Bill?

Mike Bryant
May 17, 2009 5:24 pm

So Monbot has not corrected his second mistake and the Gordian has not corrected the picture caption? WUWT?

jack mosevich
May 17, 2009 5:48 pm

OT: Wife angry with one A. Watts. I was away for a few days at my cabin which has no TV, no internet etc. Come home, yell hello to wife and immediately sign on to WUWT to see what I missed. Get yelled at for not telling wife about trip or if I missed her etc…

Steven Goddard
May 17, 2009 5:56 pm

bill,
The graph you linked shows that the Wegener estimates are conservative, as they are consistently lower than ground based measurements. Wegener flew in straight lines which transected the pole. Catlin never made it close to the pole.
http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/2171/hembird.jpg
Catlin (by their own admission) chose a route which travels over first year flat ice. They managed to find an average thickness which was slightly lower than Wegener’s minimum thickness.
Do the math. Ice extent has increased since last year. Ice thickness has increased since last year. What does that tell you about volume?

Bruce Foutch
May 17, 2009 5:57 pm

How about the article in the China Daily:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/15/content_11379619.htm
BEIJING, May 15 (Xinhuanet) — British explorers on an Arctic expedition cut short their mission to measure the thickness of floating Arctic sea ice because of early summer ice melt.
“This year, the summer melt came a little early,” Hadow said during a Webcast conference from Resolute Bay in northern Canada. “We would have rather reached the Pole if we could have, but we’ve always regarded (getting there) as the cherry on the cake.”

bill
May 17, 2009 6:00 pm

Barry (17:20:39) :
Catlin crew can make measurements to 0.001m with a bob line and a tape measure?

I think it is a case of poor spread sheet formatting (the spead sheet as presented has hundreds of calculation errors where data is missing – it is obviously preliminary stuff)
J.Hansford (17:24:25) :
Bill…. Wegener’s team have tested the equipment by drilling holes to compare with electronic readings….. Any Arctic ice will do.

Did you see my post above with the grapic from their poster:
http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/2171/hembird.jpg
Measurements seem to be out by 1 metre in 3 in a 600metre run.

Just The Facts
May 17, 2009 6:20 pm

Here is the Guardian’s “Climate change scepticism” page:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change-scepticism
I was particularly amused by “Monbiot’s royal flush”:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/gallery/2009/mar/09/climate-change-deniers-monbiot-cards?picture=344343776
which is one of today’s “Editors’ picks”.
I was surprised that Anthony didn’t make the cut, but I suspect that after the last couple days there will be plenty more cards to go around…

May 17, 2009 6:20 pm

Greg 16:54– “I just read a small piece in this weeks San Diego Union Tribune – from the AP.”
That was surprising, but here it is:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/05/14/world/main5014621.shtml
“Ice Melt Ends Explorers’ North Pole Trek
British Team Planned 3-Month Journey To Study Arctic Sea, Global Warming”
“(AP) British explorers in northern Canada to measure the thickness of floating Arctic sea ice ended their expedition short of reaching the North Pole due to an early summer ice melt, the team said Thursday.”
Things must have changed very quickly.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
“May 4, 2009
A slow start to the spring melt season”
Who to believe? Hmmmm….

Gary
May 17, 2009 6:21 pm

At the end of Annie Hall, Woody Allen tells a joke that says a lot about self-delusion. A man goes to a psychiatrist and tells him about his brother who thought he was a chicken. The psychiatrist listens for a while and then asks the man why he didn’t get the brother some psychiatric help for his problem. To that the man replies, “We needed the eggs.”
in many ways the habit those totally committed to AGW of refusing to be objective and even acknowledge contradictory evidence is a matter of “needing the eggs.”

Cathy
May 17, 2009 6:22 pm

Ahhhhhh . . . .:0)
My Catlin fix.
Thank you.
(Fascinating overview of the ice age hysteria)

Steven Hill
May 17, 2009 6:22 pm

I went to a state park over the weekend and I was wondering how everyone could pull boats and campers in their new toy electric cars.

May 17, 2009 6:23 pm

Al Gore Lied in his Sci-Fi Horror Comedy known as An inconvenient Truth.
Anyone wishing to learn the truth about global warming should view the Monckton section of my website:
http://www.hootervillegazette.com/LordMonckton.html
Reading Joanne Nova’s Skeptic’s Handbook would also be a good idea. It may be downloaded from the books/links section of my site. The handbook is a free download.
http://www.hootervillegazette.com/LinksBooks.html
Nova’s handbook should be given to the parents of every child having trouble sleeping thanks to Al Gore’s nonsense!!!

crosspatch
May 17, 2009 6:25 pm

Actually we are in a very long term cooling trend that has lasted about 7,000 years. For about the past 7,000 years overall temperatures have been cooling though there are periods of warm and periods of cool … the line is not flat.
If you can get your hands on the March 2009 issue of Quaternary Research, there are several articles in there that one might find interesting.
One of those things is Figure 7 on page 178 which shows the North American jet stream slowly moving back toward where it was during the last ice age over the past 9000 years. 9kya the jet came ashore at about the Southernmost tip of coastal Alaska. My 6kya that had moved South a little and the jet itself changing from blowing inland for a significant distance before turning South to going South immediately, Today the mean jet location arrives at about the Washington/Canadian border. 9,000 years ago Boise was on the “warm” side of the jet. Today Boise is on the “cold” side. 18kya the jet went South long before reaching the North American coast and came ashore at about Los Angeles, went straight across to about Florida and then up the East coast. But it was a split flow with a smaller stream across Alaska, Northern Canada and then dipping down at about the Eastern Great Lakes with a midwestern “glacial anticyclone” that was sort of an atmospheric gyre between the two jets.
1933 didn’t get as warm as the MWP. 1998 didn’t get as warm as 1933. Overall we have been in a long, slow cooling trend for a very long time. The past 2000 years or so seems to have steepened the cooling trend.

RoyFOMR
May 17, 2009 6:28 pm

bill (15:31:33) :
“Which could be more accurate a man with drill and tape or a piece of electronics trying to determine the snow-ice interface. I would suggest the former.”
A few typos there Bill, we all make them, let me correct you.
“Which could be more accurate a man with drill and a pre-set agenda or a piece of electronics simply relaying the data it is designed to collect. I would suggest it is not the former.”

Graeme Rodaughan
May 17, 2009 6:30 pm

bill (17:20:00) :
Graeme Rodaughan (16:44:59) :
I just don’t understand, – how is using a tape measure and holes drilled through ice, that is
floating/moving on the sea surface Repeatable Science?
(As opposed to a non-repeatable publicity stunt).
A flight path can be recorded and reflown at the same time next year to provide a repeatable data set.
You’re joking of course
If it’s floating/moving for Catlin its floating/moving for Wegener isn’t it?
Catlin are measuring a stretch of ice to an accuracy of a few cm. Wegener are measuring a different stretch of ice to an accuracy of a few 10s of cm. Both cannot ever measure the same ice again. Which is doing the beter science?

The plane can easily follow a GPS Track, and time the flight to the same dates on a subsequent year. Hence the data recording is repeatable and a trendline could be established.
The catlin expedition is inherently un-repeatable because they can’t guarantee that they could follow the same path on co-responding dates on a subsequent year.
Not joking.
Think of it this way.
In both cases, the ice is a moving target. For the plane, the path taken is repeatable – because the are flying above the ice and hence decoupled from it.
A team walking on the ice, are not able to repeat their path, because they will be moved around with the ice. I.e. they are coupled with the ice.
It’s the decoupling of the measuring device from the ice, that allows for the repeatability of the measurements.
The fact that the Catlin teams “work” is inherently unrepeatable, renders it non-science, and it defaults to a stunt.
Given the German expeditions finding ice to be thicker than expected, and the current arctic ice extent being at a 7 year high, and at that high for about the last month.
Claims that the Arctic is melting to hell are just crazy hyperbole that is divorced from the physical evidence.
Cheers G

Graeme Rodaughan
May 17, 2009 6:37 pm

Mike Bryant (17:16:49) :
“A flight path can be recorded and reflown at the same time next year to provide a repeatable data set.”
The Catlin experiment IS repeatable. They only have to be dropped off next year in the same place, have their equipment fail at the same time, have the storms arrive at the same time, drill holes in the ice haphazardly in the exact same locations, have the ice drift exactly as it did the year before, depend on the wind blowing in the same direction (for navigation purposes), get lots of tent time in the exact same locations, stick to first year ice, get picked up early and be the toast of London and the good Prince!!!
What could be easier?

Mike – you keep blowing holes in my propositions… What am I going to do???

May 17, 2009 6:41 pm

The good Prince on duty: click

Robert Wood
May 17, 2009 6:51 pm

bill 17:20:00, the Wegener Institute can repeat the exact same flight path and measurements for subsequent years, the catlin expedition cannot.

Robert Wood
May 17, 2009 6:53 pm

Smokey (18:41:59) :
Oh, for those simpler days of droit de seigneur

RoyFOMR
May 17, 2009 6:55 pm

bill (17:20:00) :
“You’re joking of course
If it’s floating/moving for Catlin its floating/moving for Wegener isn’t it?
Catlin are measuring a stretch of ice to an accuracy of a few cm. Wegener are measuring a different stretch of ice to an accuracy of a few 10s of cm. Both cannot ever measure the same ice again. Which is doing the beter science”
Taking your last point first – which is doing the better science – That is an excellent and enquiring question – On one hand we have a team whose progress and sample-space is measured in metres per hour to a three-digit precision while on the other we have a survey three/four orders of magnitude greater in extent and periodicity with a corresponding diminution of precision.
On the “If it’s floating/moving for Catlin its floating/moving for Wegener isn’t it?” point – I’m less certain of your stance mate. GIven the distance travelled by a DC3 and a Caitliner in any given time – I’d be thinking that floating/moving is much less an issue for the former than the latter!
Great questions by the way- Welcome to WUWT
HTH
Roy

Frank K.
May 17, 2009 6:59 pm

bill,
You must face the stark truth that the Catlin expedition was nothing more than a publicity stunt funded by a billion dollar insurance company based in Bermuda. It was also an environmentally destructive stunt for the little data they managed to get…

Ron de Haan
May 17, 2009 7:08 pm

The more alarmist reports the Catlin Team sends into the world about the Arctic, the bigger the scam.
The entire skeptic blog community is reporting on their findings and all they achieve is that they turn themselves into a bunch of cheating nitwits.

Editor
May 17, 2009 7:11 pm

neill (16:02:28) :

my prediction: this is going to come to damage the Left, Science and Media in an unimaginably painful way. Only question in my mind is when.

Very likely this year. Another cool summer in Alaska (though El Nino might warm things up some). I’m expecting that the NW Passage won’t open this year, and we might encourage the media to cover some of the planned trips through it. There ought to be some glaciers that came through the winter pretty well, call attention to them.
Of course, it will just be winter, not climate.

John in NZ
May 17, 2009 7:44 pm

My favorite example of too much precision (not accuracy) was when the Catlin folks would report their estimated distance to the pole to two decimal places. They didn’t do it every time but on 24 April 2009 was the following.
“Weather Cloudy
-20°C?
Present location 84°52’55″N
125° 54’ 42” W
Total distance travelled 355.58 km
Average daily distance 6.7 km
Estimated distance to North Pole 568.93 km
Time on ICE 53 days ”
Was that 568.93 km from the middle of their camp or from its most northerly point?
And the ice was moving remember. How many metres per minute was the ice moving?