Another "weather is not climate" story

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

NOAA: April Temperatures Slightly Cooler Than Average for U.S.

May 8, 2009

The April 2009 temperature for the contiguous United States was below the long-term average, based on records going back to 1895, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC.

The average April temperature of 51.2 degrees F was 0.8 degree F below the 20th Century average.  Precipitation across the contiguous United States in April averaged 2.62 inches, which is 0.19 inch above the 1901-2000 average.

U.S. Temperature Highlights

March 2009 Statewide Temperature ranks.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

  • April temperatures were near normal across much of the United States. On a regional scale, only the Northeast (above-normal) and the West North Central (below-normal) deviated significantly from normal.
  • New Hampshire observed its eighth warmest April, based on data going back to 1895. Unlike much of the Northeast, the Midwest experienced a cooler-than-normal month. From North Dakota southward to Oklahoma, Missouri, Louisiana, Alabama and Georgia, temperature averages were below normal.
  • For the year-to-date period, only North Dakota and Washington have experienced notably cooler-than-normal average temperatures. In contrast, much of the South and Southwest regions were above normal. New Mexico had its ninth warmest such period on record.
  • Based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 2.3 percent below average in April.

U.S. Precipitation Highlights

March 2009 Statewide Precipitation ranks.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

  • Above-normal precipitation fell across parts of the Central and South regions, while the West and Northwest regions experienced below-normal precipitation.
  • Precipitation was above normal for the contiguous United States. Georgia had its fifth wettest April on record, Kansas and Michigan had their ninth wettest, and Illinois, its tenth. Only seven states were notably drier than normal for April.
  • Year to date, the Northeast experienced its fourth driest January-through-April period on record and it was the twelfth driest period for the contiguous U.S.
  • By the end of April, moderate-to-exceptional drought covered 18 percent of the contiguous United States, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor.  Severe, or extreme, drought conditions continued in parts of California, Florida, Hawai’i, Nevada, Wisconsin, the southern Appalachians, and the southern Plains, with exceptional drought in southern Texas.

About 21 percent of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of April, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity).

Other Highlights

  • International Falls, Minn., recorded 125 inches of snow so far this winter season, breaking the previous record of 116 inches set in the 1995-1996 winter season. Another seasonal snowfall record was broken in Spokane, Wash., where 97.7 inches of snowfall broke the old record of 93.5 inches set in 1915-1916.
  • About eight percent of the contiguous U.S. was covered by snow at end of April, according to an analysis by the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center. Snow coverage during the month peaked at 30.2 percent on April 6, after a late-season winter storm hit the Midwest and Plains.
  • The 263 preliminary tornadoes reported in April was above the three-year average of 200 confirmed tornadoes.

NCDC’s preliminary reports, which assess the current state of the climate, are released soon after the end of each month. These analyses are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

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May 11, 2009 12:24 pm

How can this be… we are not in the midst of a AGW induced drought and unprecedented warming period? Al Gore said so last month!
I love the weather because it humbles all who claim to predict and potentially control it.

Chase
May 11, 2009 12:28 pm

Colder and wetter

Leon Brozyna
May 11, 2009 12:35 pm

“NOAA understands and predicts changes …”
I wonder — is that self-aggrandizement appropriate here. I mean, if they understand it, why do they need to keep spending taxpayer dollars?
In other words, April was a boringly average month. How do they expect to stoke the flames of crisis with that?

Ray
May 11, 2009 12:36 pm

Even with their manipulated temperature records (know as “corrections”) that usually show warmer than is actually is, we are still seeing below average temperatures. Imagine what the real temperature average should be.

Juraj V.
May 11, 2009 12:49 pm

Funny how they have to use 1900-2000 averages to get “above average” anomalies, and even this does not work sometimes 🙂 1900 was still Little Ice Age, not to forget.

Murray Carpenter
May 11, 2009 12:51 pm

Has anyone else noticed that the Cryosphere Today N/H ice extent graph/trace hasn’t moved for about a week now?

May 11, 2009 12:51 pm

New Hampshire observed its eighth warmest April, based on data going back to 1895.
Was that the place that was supposed to be super-sensitive to solar cycle length and experience a step decrease? Achibald was holding forth on that.
Or is this weather vs. climate again?

May 11, 2009 12:57 pm

Just substract the 5 degrees celsius error surfacestations.org has found and you’ll have the real data.
As we say in spanish “Confessed culpability does not need any proof”:
NOAA…conserves and manages

E.M.Smith
Editor
May 11, 2009 1:02 pm

The charts do a wonderful job of showing why the averaging process is flawed. ALL of California is shown as normal temp and partial drought.
The reality is that it’s been colder and wetter in the north coastal area, but this gets erased by the fact that L.A. was a bit hot and dry. That cool Oregon trend ought to include the north coastal California area…
On average, the U.S. population has no gender. That we end up 1% or so female after the averaging hides more than it reveals…

bobbyv
May 11, 2009 1:15 pm

Agree w/ Leon, if indeed they understand it now, debate is over. No need to keep funding the science.

KW
May 11, 2009 1:21 pm

Spokane has had two back to back winters with record snowfall.
It’s always fun to shovel your parent’s roof off…
…and be able to step down from it onto a 10 foot high snowpile.
In all my years of living and visiting Spokane…I’ve never seen as much snow as I did last winter there. Unbelievable!

voodoo
May 11, 2009 1:24 pm

Anthony,
Is all of NOAA’s temperature data from the surface stations that you monitor or do they have other sources?

Adam from Kansas
May 11, 2009 1:30 pm

If this averaging system is flawed, why not cut the map of the US into small equal-sized squares and use that, what about using a similar system that the WXmaps site uses?

May 11, 2009 1:33 pm

This cracks me up….because the model doesn’t predict a connection between clouds and GCRs, the theory must be wrong. However, pay no attention to the discrepancies between observed temperatures and climate models!
Attempt To Discredit Cosmic Ray-Climate Link Using Computer Model
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/attempt-discredit-cosmic-ray-climate-link-using-computer-model
Two computer modelers from CMU have written a program to simulate the interaction of cosmic rays with Earth’s atmosphere. Because the model failed to predict significant increases in cloud cover, global warming activists are claiming the theory linking cosmic rays to climate change has been discredited. Climate models have failed to accurately predict the current downward trend in temperatures and now we are asked to accept a model as proof of how the Universe works. In truth, the paper cited is nothing more than a study of a computer program, and has nothing to do with the physical reality of how Earth’s climate functions.

May 11, 2009 1:42 pm

Accuweather’s answer today to our cooling trend is that it is “statistically insignificant” in light of records dating back to 1895.
Since we’ve really only had truly accurate temperature monitoring for 30 years, I would say an 11-year period of cooling–more than 1/3 of the past 30 years–is VERY significant.
I might add that this cooling 1/3 is the MOST RECENT 1/3 of those past 30 years.

TomS
May 11, 2009 1:44 pm

The AGW/Sky is boiling crowd, are in a fix because their story smells badly like frozen dead fish! The mainstream media is running around now saying that the lack of significant solar activity in Cycle 24 with “mask” the affects of AGW. It’s never mentioned that since 1950 we been living with the Sun’s Modern Maximum sunspot cycles. Perhaps it’s simply the sun and not those few pesky C02 molecules, which have been warming our globe? As the sun quiets and the globe cools, the AGW cause is slowing freezing around them like polar ice!
Determining the true likely future behavior of our sun is now paramount for our societal well-being. It appears likely that we are in for an extended period in which our earth will be cooler. If that is true, scientists need to be working diligently to determine how to produce the food and energy our humans all over the globe will need to survive. They need to abandon swinging endlessly at AGW windmills.

/sea/
May 11, 2009 1:47 pm

Record high temperature measurements are significant as evidence of global warming because they launch from starting points above the historic mean temperatures. Record low temperatures on the other hand are just weather.

Gary Pearse
May 11, 2009 1:57 pm

Well the above average NE USA is about to get a bit of a cooling. Here on the other side of its northern border, we had a broad area of frost in the St Lawrence River Valley last night. Tonight we are warned to cover our plants from Lake Erie all the Way up to Quebec City in a band along the St Lawrence Seaway as a good frost is coming tonight. Across the country, we had snow in Calgary Alberta, Winnipeg Manitoba and about a foot of snow in Newfoundland. We should be having our first barbecues.

Tim Clark
May 11, 2009 2:01 pm

As you will note, Kansas was well above average precipitation. Unfortunately, here in South-Central Kansas, we received most of it in a single weather event (6+”)

VG
May 11, 2009 2:05 pm

J. Watson: Accuweather = AGW LOL

Austin
May 11, 2009 2:07 pm

After a sunny April, the last three weeks have been very wet and very cloudy in North Texas and most of Oklahoma. I expect that May will show as 3-8 degrees F below normal. Corn is 3 weeks behind and the wheat is taking its time to cure.

May 11, 2009 2:10 pm

I think the title says it all. Fox news will be crowing about April weather disproving global warming, but the fact remains that climate has become more up and down, and warmer on average, over the past 50 years (or more).
Andy Greene
Green Living Tips for Rednecks

May 11, 2009 2:12 pm

NOAA: April Temperatures Slightly Cooler Than Average for U.S.
Had the month been .8 F warmer instead of cooler the report would not have said “Slightly Warmer” it would have said “Significantly Warmer”.
Okay… this April was a bit on the cool side. What about last April? It was a scorcher.. 🙂

The April 2007 Cold Wave occurred across much of the central Plains, Midwest and into the Southeast during the 4th through the 10th. For the month as a whole, April temperatures across the contiguous U.S. were near average ranking 47th coolest, although below average temperatures are apparent in these affected regions. The impacts of this cold air outbreak are extensive and still have yet to be completely quantified. Perhaps the most significant impact of this cold wave is related to the timing and duration of the event in concert with crop emergence and tree blooms. Winter wheat across the central Plains and Midwest and emerged corn and blooming fruits across the southern U.S. were perhaps among the hardest hit agricultural crops.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/apr/apr-cold-event.php
As to the last sentence in that paragraph … some more information.

The April 2007 Cold Wave brought significant crop losses across the central Plains, Midwest, and into the Southeast. Although the extent of damage has not been fully assessed, losses may total billions of dollars in the affected states.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/apr/apr-cold-event.php#crops
Still, many think that cold is better than warm. An over taxed / carbon taxed and starving nation is better then a nation of people enjoying the warm beaches, low energy bills, and good health.

May 11, 2009 2:13 pm

TomS (13:44:31) :
It’s never mentioned that since 1950 we been living with the Sun’s Modern Maximum sunspot cycles.
These cycles were not significantly larger than several cycles in the 19th and 18th centuries, but temperature were…

Ray
May 11, 2009 2:16 pm

Scientific Method:
1) According to AGWer:
– Design computer model
– Gather observations and filter out inconvenient datum
– Run model
– Modify data to fit model (i.e. data corrections)
– Explain that nature works exactly according to model
2) According to Climate Realists
– Gather observations
– Deduce hypothesis on how nature works
– Make assumptions and design computer model
– Validate computer model with past, present and future data
– Revise hypothesis and model to better relect how nature works
– Explain how nature works

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