Another anemic solar cycle 23 sunspeck, could 19th century astronomers have seen it?
From Spaceweather.com
SUNSPOT 1016: A ring-shaped sunspot numbered 1016 has emerged near the sun’s equator. Its magnetic polarity identifies it as a member of old Solar Cycle 23. Until these old cycle sunspots go away, the next solar cycle will remain in abeyance.

Leif Svalgaard (09:12:43) :
So have you ever seen an attempt to measure the overall solar rotation velocity?
Geoff Sharp (16:17:00) :
So have you ever seen an attempt to measure the overall solar rotation velocity?
Provided that you can agree to distinguish correctly between rotation and flows, the data exists for that, as helioseismology provides up with the Doppler data needed for this. Since there a [almost] discontinuous changes in the profile it may not may much sense to compute an average, much as it does not make much sense to say that the average temperature on the Moon be computed by averaging the night time temperature and the day time temperature, giving an average result like -10C and then basing your heating/cooling need on that average.
You know the data I am looking for, but I dont expect you to arm the opposition. Computing an average is probably not going to get close, but there will be another method besides helioseismology that may provide the data. Trying to establish a datum line on a viscous surface does seem a challenge.
Maybe I might investigate something a bit more obscure like solar satellite orbit data and search for a trade off etc.
Geoff Sharp (22:10:07) :
You know the data I am looking for, but I dont expect you to arm the opposition.
Of course, I would if I could. That is just basic scientific decency [although according to Paul Vaughan, I not a decent scientist 🙂 ]. But it will be a hard, frustrating slug to search for something that violates physical laws, but then the reward would be commensurate with the misery.
Leif Svalgaard (22:29:56) :
I am just looking for solar rotation data similar to earths LOD measurements. Neither of these violate any physical laws, on the contrary I would have thought.
Geoff Sharp (02:26:56) :
I am just looking for solar rotation data similar to earths LOD measurements. Neither of these violate any physical laws, on the contrary I would have thought.
You stated that your are doing this in a “search for a trade off”. It is the trade off that is the violation. I don’t think you care about what the solar LOD is if it would show no ‘trade off’.
Leif Svalgaard (06:37:15) :
You stated that your are doing this in a “search for a trade off”. It is the trade off that is the violation. I don’t think you care about what the solar LOD is if it would show no ‘trade off’.
You make many assumptions and dont need to make such statements…it does you no credit. The trade off I was talking about was in relation to searching for a LOD type measurement on the Sun. An angular momentum trade off or conservation because of solar rotation change that could occur with a solar satellite as seen with the earth/moon system. I take offense at what you think I care about, contrary to your thoughts I have no barrow to push or life’s work to protect, and only seek knowledge.
Geoff Sharp (07:14:32) :
I take offense at what you think I care about
Fair enough.
Geoff Sharp (07:14:32) :
An angular momentum trade off or conservation because of solar rotation change that could occur with a solar satellite as seen with the earth/moon system.
If you change solar rotation, it would have absolutely no effect on a solar satellite. This is the important point you are ignoring [not missing, as it has been pointed out repeatedly].
Leif Svalgaard (08:07:33) :
If you change solar rotation, it would have absolutely no effect on a solar satellite. This is the important point you are ignoring [not missing, as it has been pointed out repeatedly].
Lets assume the Sun slows its rotation because of friction at the Tachocline…would we not see an increase in the semi-major axis of its satellite?
Geoff Sharp (15:33:43) :
Lets assume the Sun slows its rotation because of friction at the Tachocline…would we not see an increase in the semi-major axis of its satellite?
Only if it is the satellite that is causing the friction, never if the friction is due to, say, tides raised by another planet, e.g. Jupiter
There are two additional problems:
1) the energy available to slow the Sun down by friction is minuscule because the tides are so small and would not be concentrated just at the tachocline if due to planets far away.
2) the friction is always one-way, so you never get a speed-up of the Sun [to make a cycle].
Geoff Sharp (15:33:43) :
Lets assume the Sun slows its rotation because of friction at the Tachocline…would we not see an increase in the semi-major axis of its satellite?
To clarify: if the friction is internal to the Sun [i.e. not caused by planetary tides] then there would be no change in the orbit of the satellite, but the two layers rubbing against one another at the tachocline because there is shear there, would equalize their rotation rates, one would slow down, the other would speed up to maintain constancy of angular momentum. So, the shear and the friction will over time disappear.
Only if it is the satellite that is causing the friction, never if the friction is due to, say, tides raised by another planet, e.g. Jupiter
There are two additional problems:
1) the energy available to slow the Sun down by friction is minuscule because the tides are so small and would not be concentrated just at the tachocline if due to planets far away.
2) the friction is always one-way, so you never get a speed-up of the Sun [to make a cycle].
Leif Svalgaard (16:48:57) :
The area that is not clear to me is: why is it only the satellite that is causing the friction, experiencing the orbit trade off. Your saying the increase in semi-major axis is a result of friction and conservation of angular momentum and not conservation alone?
Geoff Sharp (18:09:44) :
The area that is not clear to me is: why is it only the satellite that is causing the friction, experiencing the orbit trade off. Your saying the increase in semi-major axis is a result of friction and conservation of angular momentum and not conservation alone?
For something to change its speed [a change in speed is acceleration] a force must be applied [Newton’s second law: Force = Mass x Acceleration (F=M a), or a = F/M. No force, no change. The friction provides that force: no friction, no force, no change.
Now, consider a planet [satellite] in orbit, call it A. There is a gravitational force [general relativity aside – Newton is good enough for this] between the Sun [S] and A. Let A raise a tide on the Sun giving rise to another force [at right angle to the gravitational force between S and A] slowing S down and increasing the distance of A. Consider another planet B and let it be much smaller than A [or much farther away]. Its tidal force working at right angles to the gravitational force between S and B will be much smaller than that of A and cause a much smaller friction and thus a much smaller slowdown of S and therefore a much smaller increase of distance to B. In the limit that B is VERY small [a small artificial satellite], the effect on B will be negligible.
The salient point is that the system comprised of S and A is independent from the system comprised of S and B. This may be the sticking point for you. If the above consideration is correct then we can consider the case where Moon did not raise a tide [e.g. if the Moon were much farther away]. The Sun still raises a tide [half of the Moon’s present tide] and there is still friction due to the solar tidal bulge, and that friction will cause the Earth to rotate slower and the Sun to recede [very little] to preserve angular momentum in the Sun-Earth system, but will not cause the Moon to recede any further, because the Moon is no longer tidally coupled to the Earth [remember we considered the case [far in the future] where the Moon had receded to the point of its tides being negligible].
The treatment above was a little bit sloppy, because the mechanism is slightly more complex. The Earth rotates much faster than the Moon revolves so the tidal bulge is actually carried forward [in the sense of Earth’s rotation] and it is the gravitational force on the bulge that slows the Earth. The friction serves only to make the bulge move forward. On the Earth, this is a trivial detail and can be glossed over in a simple explanation. But there is another system where the precise mechanism becomes crucial, and that is Mars and its two satellites Deimos and Phobos. Deimos is the furthest away and its orbital period is longer than Mars’ day, so everything works just as in the Moon-Earth system. The interesting part is that Phobos is so close to Mars that its orbital period is shorter than mars’ day. This means that the bulge will not [as on Earth and Deimos] be carried forward by the faster rotation, but will lag behind, so the Phobos is not moving away from Mars [as Deimos and the Moon from the Earth], but is moving closer to Mars. So in the Martian system, the two satellites behave independently: one moves away and the other moves closer. So, the movement of one does not influence the movement of the other. And that is the crucial point.
You can get a feel for the math behind this by following these lectures:
http://iapetus.phy.umist.ac.uk/Teaching/SolarSystem/Lecture1.pdf
change ‘Lecture1’ to ‘Lecture2’ to get the next one, and so on. Tides are discussed in number 7 and on.
Leif Svalgaard (19:19:56) :
I appreciate your detailed response, and it has set the seed for more questions.
What stood out most was your statement:
The Sun still raises a tide [half of the Moon’s present tide] and there is still friction due to the solar tidal bulge, and that friction will cause the Earth to rotate slower and the Sun to recede [very little] to preserve angular momentum in the Sun-Earth system
I take it you mean the semi-major axis will increase, can you expand on your reasoning here or provide a link that describes the process. The Sun receding is the real meat on the bones in my opinion.
Geoff Sharp (04:17:53) :
I take it you mean the semi-major axis will increase, can you expand on your reasoning here or provide a link that describes the process. The Sun receding is the real meat on the bones in my opinion.
The process is the same as for the Moon. As far is the process is concerned, you can consider the Sun to be a satellite around the Earth. There is not much meat on that bone as the effect is unmeasurably small because the Sun’s mass is so huge. The important point is that [just as with Deimos and Phobos] the tidal effects of the Sun and the Moon are independent. So tides on the Sun raised by Jupiter will not have any effect on the orbit of another planet. Note also that if your satellite is close to the Sun [orbital period less than 27 days] the effect [as for Phobos] goes the other way. Anyway, one more time: tides on the Sun raised by one planet will not have any effect on the orbit of another planet.
Leif Svalgaard (06:36:19) :
I asked the question because there seemed to be 2 schools of thought on the earth/moon system. The one outlined in your referenced lecture notes does not attribute the outward movement of the moon to angular momentum but suggests the forward bulge accelerates the moon which moves it out (which seems opposite to Kepler’s law).
I am not sure if your Martian example is applicable as there are many differences, the only bulge involved would be a very thin atmosphere and the shape of Mars itself. The moons themselves are not spheres and are very small but still we see a fairly big movement in the orbit reduction of Phobos of around 20 meters per century…the numbers dont look right?
I also have an interesting thought experiment re bulges. If we go on the bulge theory (I dont think its generally accepted) eventually over time the earth’s rotation would slow to match the lunar period which would only leave the Sun as a tidal mechanism. The earth would slow further putting the moon in a faster orbit than the rotation of earth which would generate a bulge behind the moon thus dragging the earth into a faster rotation and equalizing again. So maybe there is a possibility of tides increasing rotation?
Geoff Sharp (07:59:27) :
I asked the question because there seemed to be 2 schools of thought on the earth/moon system. The one outlined in your referenced lecture notes does not attribute the outward movement of the moon to angular momentum but suggests the forward bulge accelerates the moon which moves it out (which seems opposite to Kepler’s law).
There is only one school of thought. The ‘angular momentum’ is not a mechanism per se, but a constraint on what can happen [whatever process works must keep the AM the same]. Only a force can change anything. And that the Moon moves out when accelerated is what is supposed to happen. Think of the space station having to fire its engines now and then to attain a higher orbit, whenever atmospheric drag has lowered it. If you want to even higher, e.g. to the Moon, you have to let the engine burn a lot longer.
The Martian example: tidal effects work no matter what shape the bodies have and they don’t have to be fluid or gases. The effect is so large because the moons are so close. If you move our Moon in to 1/10th the distance, the tidal effects go up thousand fold as they depend on the cube of the distance [which is why even mighty Jupiter raises such a minuscule tide on the Sun].
I am not sure if your Martian example is applicable as there are many differences, the only bulge involved would be a very thin atmosphere and the shape of Mars itself. The moons themselves are not spheres and are very small but still we see a fairly big movement in the orbit reduction of Phobos of around 20 meters per century…the numbers dont look right?
I also have an interesting thought experiment re bulges. If we go on the bulge theory (I dont think its generally accepted) eventually over time the earth’s rotation would slow to match the lunar period which would only leave the Sun as a tidal mechanism. The earth would slow further putting the moon in a faster orbit than the rotation of earth which would generate a bulge behind the moon thus dragging the earth into a faster rotation and equalizing again. So maybe there is a possibility of tides increasing rotation?
If we go on the bulge theory (I dont think its generally accepted)
the only one there is and accepted by all, except pseudo-scientist peddling stuff on the Internet 🙂
eventually over time the earth’s rotation would slow to match the lunar period which would only leave the Sun as a tidal mechanism. The earth would slow further putting the moon in a faster orbit
Once the Sun is the only tidal mechanism, any further slowing of the Earth will have no effect on the Moon. I think I may have failed completely in getting that across; perhaps one more time: tides raised by one body will not have any effect on the orbit of another body.
So maybe there is a possibility of tides increasing rotation?
I think I said that several times. If the orbital revolution is faster than rotation, it goes the other way [Phobos], but in the solar system all planets have periods greater than 27 days. Interesting enough, in the early solar system when the planets were forming, friction between a planet and the solar system protoplanet disk caused the planet to loose energy and migrate closer to the Sun. Some exoplanets are very close to their suns, not because they formed there [it is too hot], but because they moved there by tidal forces. Tides are very important in the universe and are well-understood. The crucial point is that one must calculate what their sizes are to establish how important they are for any particular case, and for the present solar system, the tides raised by the planets are just too small to have any effect.
Preview would help…
Geoff Sharp (07:59:27) :
I asked the question because there seemed to be 2 schools of thought on the earth/moon system. The one outlined in your referenced lecture notes does not attribute the outward movement of the moon to angular momentum but suggests the forward bulge accelerates the moon which moves it out (which seems opposite to Kepler’s law).
There is only one school of thought. The ‘angular momentum’ is not a mechanism per se, but a constraint on what can happen [whatever process works must keep the AM the same]. Only a force can change anything. And that the Moon moves out when accelerated is what is supposed to happen. Think of the space station having to fire its engines now and then to attain a higher orbit, whenever atmospheric drag has lowered it. If you want to even higher, e.g. to the Moon, you have to let the engine burn a lot longer.
The Martian example: tidal effects work no matter what shape the bodies have and they don’t have to be fluid or gases. The effect is so large because the moons are so close. If you move our Moon in to 1/10th the distance, the tidal effects go up thousand fold as they depend on the cube of the distance [which is why even mighty Jupiter raises such a minuscule tide on the Sun].
If we go on the bulge theory (I dont think its generally accepted)
the only one there is and accepted by all, except pseudo-scientists peddling stuff on the Internet 🙂
eventually over time the earth’s rotation would slow to match the lunar period which would only leave the Sun as a tidal mechanism. The earth would slow further putting the moon in a faster orbit
Once the Sun is the only tidal mechanism, any further slowing of the Earth will have no effect on the Moon. I think I may have failed completely in getting that across; perhaps one more time: tides raised by one body will not have any effect on the orbit of another body.
So maybe there is a possibility of tides increasing rotation?
I think I said that several times. If the orbital revolution is faster than rotation, it goes the other way [Phobos], but in the solar system all planets have periods greater than 27 days. Interesting enough, in the early solar system when the planets were forming, friction between a planet and the solar system protoplanet disk caused the planet to loose energy and migrate closer to the Sun. Some exoplanets are very close to their suns, not because they formed there [it is too hot], but because they moved there by tidal forces. Tides are very important in the universe and are well-understood. The crucial point is that one must calculate what their sizes are to establish how important they are for any particular case, and for the present solar system, the tides raised by the planets are just too small to have any effect.
Leif Svalgaard (09:12:12) :
“eventually over time the earth’s rotation would slow to match the lunar period which would only leave the Sun as a tidal mechanism. The earth would slow further putting the moon in a faster orbit…”
Once the Sun is the only tidal mechanism, any further slowing of the Earth will have no effect on the Moon.
Perhaps a clarification: as long as the Sun is the only tidal mechanism this holds, but if you slow down the Earth further, the Earth’s rotation and the lunar period would no longer match and lunar tidal effects would pick up again. One has to be VERY precise in these things.
Leif Svalgaard (09:12:12) :
If we go on the bulge theory (I dont think its generally accepted)
the only one there is and accepted by all, except pseudo-scientists peddling stuff on the Internet 🙂
The reason I said not generally accepted is I dont think the science is settled on this one. The bodies responsible for collecting LOD measurements seem to be very non committal on the causes of slowing process mentioning external tides and other internal processes. Tidal friction due to continents is mentioned on several websites. This from the USNO
http://maia.usno.navy.mil/eop.html
” The secular variation of the rotational speed seen by the apparently linear increase in the length of the day is due chiefly to tidal friction. The Moon raises tides in the ocean diminishing the speed of rotation. This effect causes a slowing of the Earth’s rotational speed resulting in a lengthening of the day by about 0.0015 to 0.0020 seconds per day per century.
The irregular changes in speed appear to be the result of random accelerations, but may be correlated with physical processes occurring on or within the Earth. These cause the length of the day to vary by as much as 0.001 to 0.002 seconds. Irregular changes consist of “decade fluctuations” with characteristic periods of five to fifteen years as well as variations which occur at shorter time scales. The decade fluctuations are related apparently to processes occurring within the Earth. The higher frequency variations with periods less than two years are now known to be related largely to the changes in the total angular momentum of the atmosphere.
Periodic variations are associated with periodically repeatable physical processes affecting the Earth. Tides raised in the solid Earth by the Moon and the Sun produce variations in the length of the day with amplitudes on the order of 0.00005 seconds and with periods of 18.6 years, 1 year, 1/2 year, 27.55 days, 13.66 days and others. A standard model including 62 periodic components, can be employed to correct the observations for tidal effects. Changes in the total angular momentum of the atmosphere have also been shown to be correlated with changes in the length of the day.
The rotational speed of the Earth remains essentially unpredictable in nature due to incompletely understood variations. Because of this, astronomical observations continue to be made regularly with increasing accuracy, and the resulting data are the subject of continuing research in the field. ”
Leif Svalgaard (09:36:05) :
Perhaps a clarification: as long as the Sun is the only tidal mechanism this holds, but if you slow down the Earth further, the Earth’s rotation and the lunar period would no longer match and lunar tidal effects would pick up again. One has to be VERY precise in these things.
Perhaps this might be one area where a tidal effect from one body can have a knock on effect to another body, the moon would have acceleration and orbit changes because of the Sun’s tide. But my main point is that you could get a two way result because of friction, the earth could increase and decrease its rotation because of tidal effects. But having said that, both of my scenario’s are secondary processes.
Your earlier point re AM is more a background process that must be conserved and only forces can make actual changes ie rotation etc is interesting. We have discussed friction but there must be other forces at play. Looking at elliptical orbits and orbit velocity changes which result from gravity alone is one area, and what happens with the movement of the Sun in its orbit and how angular momentum must be conserved in relation to the bodies orbiting the Sun is an intriguing question that perhaps has more answers to come.
Geoff Sharp (17:02:34) :
The reason I said not generally accepted is I dont think the science is settled on this one. The bodies responsible for collecting LOD measurements seem to be very non committal on the causes of slowing process mentioning external tides and other internal processes.
As far as external tides are concerned the science was settled 100 years ago. There are internal changes to the Earth’s moment of inertia due to movements of magma inside the Earth, and to friction at the interface between the core and both the mantle and the inner core. All of this are just details that becomes observable as our ability to measure these things increase. They do not reflect uncertainty in the physical underpinning of these phenomena. It is like, because we can’t predict the weather a year from today does not mean that the physical laws are incomplete or unknown.
But my main point is that you could get a two way result because of friction, the earth could increase and decrease its rotation because of tidal effects.
Don’t cling to this one because for all current planets at this time friction in the Sun is a one-way process. And it is not your point, I explained to you.
Your earlier point re AM is more a background process that must be conserved
It doesn’t matter in which direction the vectors point. Our physical understanding of this is solid and three hundred years old. If you postulate other [unknown] physical laws to be operating, anything goes, of course, but that was the hard slug I was referring to. but there must be other forces at playwell, none we know of.
It all boils down to this: there are only three mechanisms within known physical laws that can transfer angular momentum:
1) tides with friction
2) magnetic torques due to stretching of file lines
3) the Poynting-Robertson effect caused by absorption [from one direction] and re-emission [in all directions] of light.
All of these are much too small at the present time to have any measurable effect on the Sun [for 1 and 2] or planets [3].
If one wants to stick to the correlations being caused by angular momentum transfer, one must postulate that in spite of these shortcomings it somehow works anyway. This is an acceptable position as long as it is not coupled with a claim that these things are science-based.
Leif Svalgaard (19:03:57) :
As far as external tides are concerned the science was settled 100 years ago.
I have seen some some questions re the bulge theory, if we go back in time and reverse the current moon recession rate it would enter the destruction zone in 1.2 billion years. If the earths slowdown was purely based on tidal friction the recession rate would be slower when there was only one continent etc.
It all boils down to this: there are only three mechanisms within known physical laws that can transfer angular momentum:
1) tides with friction
2) magnetic torques due to stretching of file lines
3) the Poynting-Robertson effect caused by absorption [from one direction] and re-emission [in all directions] of light.
Dont forget Kepler’s 2nd Law.
Leif Svalgaard (19:03:57) :
If one wants to stick to the correlations being caused by angular momentum transfer, one must postulate that in spite of these shortcomings it somehow works anyway.
That’s a big statement…..the message is getting through.
Geoff Sharp (20:05:37) :
I have seen some some questions re the bulge theory, if we go back in time and reverse the current moon recession rate it would enter the destruction zone in 1.2 billion years.
Stop squirming 🙂 These calculations that depend on assuming that the boundary conditions were the same are not very precise. The point is, we know how this works. To use theat knowledge to accurately predict things we need data, which we don’t have. Like predicting the weather: we know the physics, the mechanisms, ect, but need the data.
Dont forget Kepler’s 2nd Law.
I’m not. It has nothing to do with transfer of Angular Momentum and friction, etc. Kepler’s 2nd law states [equivalently] that the orbital AM of a planet is constant, so when the planet is closer to the Sun, it has to move faster [AM=distance*speed]