Last year we had the forecast from NSIDC’s Dr. Mark Serreze of an “ice free north pole”. As we know, that didn’t even come close to being true. Summer 2008 had more arctic ice than summer 2007, and summer 2007 was not “ice free” by any measure.
In spite of the spectacular failure of Dr. Serreze’s widely quoted prediction, there were no retractions, no apologies for misleading the public, no admissions of error, and inaccurate stories like the one above are still in place. So what could possibly be worse news from NSIDC?
The very man who made that ridiculous statement of “an ice free north pole in 2008” is set to become the “incoming director” of NSIDC. Apparently alarmism pays, especially if you get press.
Does anybody live in Maryland that can attend this talk? I’d just love to see what sort of “heat” he’s talking about “cranking up”.
Goddard Visitor Center
8800 Greenbelt Road – Code 130
Greenbelt, Md 20771
301.286.3978 – Phone
301.286.1781 – Fax
I wonder what new “forecasts” will be coming in the new Goddard movie “frozen”? Gosh, that spherical screen is really important in getting the science facts across don’t you think?
Interactive Feature: FROZEN – View the trailer, gallery, and more.
Goddard’s New ‘Science On a Sphere’ Movie Opens Nationwide This Spring
In an era when change itself seems to be the subject holding people’s attention, NASA presents a spectacular new movie that depicts the changing Earth. Called “Frozen,” this film introduces the idea of our transitioning home planet in ways that have never been seen before.
“Frozen” brings Earth to life, projecting images of our planet onto completely spherical movie screens hanging in the center of darkened theaters. Turning in space, images on the screen become a portal onto a virtual planet, complete with churning, swirling depictions of huge natural forces moving below. “Frozen” showcases the global cryosphere, those places on Earth where temperatures don’t generally rise above water’s freezing point. As one of the most directly observable climate gauges, the changing cryosphere serves as a proxy for larger themes.
“Frozen” opens around the country and in several locations around the world on March 27, 2009. For a partial list of Science On a Sphere theaters, click here.
There is an old sociological saying that each American has only three people between him/her and the President. Over my life I have been able to calculate any number of such links, though many times we don’t know that a person we are talking with has contacts. When I was growing up in Northern Virginia, my Dad pointed out a man walking down an otherwise deserted street; he was both a member of our Church and a Cabinet Secretary.
If you are willing to state your views to those around you, IT will be heard in the Oval Office.
On two occasions in my life, I sat listening in a House Member’s Office (one was Gerry Ford when he was House Minority Leader; the other was then the Democratic House Whip) because someone I was with knew someone with close connections to the Congressman. STATING YOUR VIEWS TO THOSE AROUND YOU ARE IMPORTANT!!!! It will make a difference.
And that is a true statement. Another fact the warmist scaremongers ignore. The fact that the planet has been ice-free for most of its existence doesn’t register with them because — cue the drum roll — “it’s an inconvenient truth!”
George Carlin put it best. “The planet is fine! The people are [messed up].” (pre-sanitized for a family-friendly blog)
“Mike Bryant (18:20:42) : Does snyone know why the JAXA NH Sea Ice extent is abot the same distance from the 1979-2007 average as NSIDC NH Sea Ice extent is from the 1979-2000 average? ”
Because the ice is growing fast. It’s not a glitch in the data or something like that.
Mike Bryant (18:20:42) :
I may have misunderstood your question.
Can somebody help me. I’m on dial up and large pdfs take 2-4 hours to load.
I know from validation papers on the NSIDC website that they now use the NASA TEAM 2 algorythm for sea ice because it is more consistant with BOOTSTRAP (used in the antarctic since 1979) and AMRS-E. NASA TEAM 2 shows less ice than the original NASA TEAM but I cannot find the paper which shows the implentation of NASA TEAM 2 and a reanalysis of 1979-2002 data. Namely a recalculation of the 1979-2000 average.
Anthony,
Apparently, Serreze is traveling around giving this seminar at various locations:
http://www.ic3.uwaterloo.ca/seminars/2009/serreze_flyer.pdf
Here’s the abstract:
Cranking Up the Arctic Heat
“The concept of Arctic amplification is that rises in surface air temperature in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will be larger in the Arctic compared to the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. Model‐projected Arctic amplification is focused over the Arctic Ocean. As the climate warms, the summer melt season lengthens and intensifies, leading to less sea
ice at summer’s end. Summertime absorption of solar energy in expanding open water areas increases the sensible heat content of the ocean. Ice formation in autumn and winter, important for insulating the warm ocean from the cooling atmosphere is delayed. This promotes enhanced upward
heat fluxes, seen as strong warming at the surface and in the lower troposphere. Based on the satellite‐derived sea ice record and other data sources, Arctic amplification associated with declining ice extent has emerged in the past decade, and is growing in strength. The extreme Arctic warmth of
autumn 2007 and 2008 serves as an exclamation point on this trend. Anticipated impacts of continued Arctic amplification include alterations in patterns of atmospheric circulation and precipitation both within and beyond the Arctic, and enhanced warming of Arctic and subarctic land areas that may hasten carbon cycle feedbacks associated with thawing permafrost.”
It is interesting that his abstract states:
“Ice formation in autumn and winter, important for insulating the warm ocean from the cooling atmosphere is delayed. ”
That’s not what happened last year!! In fact, I suspect he will avoid talking about 2008 – 2009 altogether…
Al Gore’s net worth rises from $2 million to $100 million in only 8 years.
Maybe this guy is chasing the same gravy train.
Oh – and, apparently, Serreze is “a leading expert on climate change” and (drumroll please) one of *** Al Gore’s *** key environmental advisors!
http://en.sourcews.com/top-climate-change-expert-gore-adviser
“One of North America’s leading experts on climate change, Mark Serreze, will give a public talk on the sharp loss of Arctic sea ice during a visit next week at the University of Waterloo. One of Al Gore’s key environmental advisers, Serreze is the senior research scientist and Arctic specialist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, based at the University of Colorado in Boulder. His talk, entitled Cranking up the Arctic Heat, takes place Wednesday …”
dhogaza (16:47:07) :
Where is the error in his statement that there was a possibility of the north pole being ice free last summer?
Where was the error in the headline that said exactly the same thing?
What is there to correct?
REPLY: Oh puhleeeze. Where is the result of the headline “North pole could be ice free in 2008″? Show me that result, you can’t because it didn’t happen. You are defending scaremongering, and it shows that you have no scruples. What next, defending Waxman? Serreze did nothing; zero, zilch, nada, he let the error he started live on in headlines worldwide. If I had made a statement in error that the media picked up you’d be all over me to fix it, retract it, deny it, whatever, Serreze gets a free pass…because you (and your friends) have no scruples. – Anthony
Anthony,
How is it that so many people are buying into the AGW propaganda? I am at a loss.
I showed a Ph.D. physicist a temperature anomaly diagram
http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/UAHMSUglobe.html
where the scales are in tenths of a (single) degree. His response was, “That can’t be right. It only shows warming of less than one degree.”
I was floored. With all the fear mongering, the perception is that global warming must be more than that. And this from an educated man.
You are performing a great service in running WUWT. The worst fear of every con artist is the truth. Please, please, keep it up.
–Mike Ramsey
Anthony, I see three volunteers to attend the presentation. I would like to see all 3 (or more) reports here, as there may be differences. Your blog, your decision.
Sorry for the multiple posts…even more Serreze…
http://newsrelease.uwaterloo.ca/news.php?id=5042
2009-02-25 09:28:32
Top climate change expert, Al Gore adviser, gives UW public talk on Arctic ice loss
“Levels of sea ice in the region reached a record low in September 2007. The Arctic has now lost about a third of its ice since satellite measurements began 30 years ago. The rate of loss has risen sharply since 2002. ”
Has the arctic really lost *** a third *** of it ice since 1979??
Just Want Truth…
Since Arctic Roos JAXA, includes 2001-2007 in their average plot, it seems that their 2009 plot would be closer to average than NSIDC appears to be to the average which does NOT include 2001-2007, which had lower summer averages…
Thanks,
Mike
Totally OT. Please excuse.
Recently there was a posting from an Aussie of doggerel. The first two lines were from “A sunburnt contry”, but the last two were a switch to Melbourne and rain.
My computer wiped out my copy of the poem and I have been unable to find it again despite a lot of looking. If the originator or anyone else knows the poem, kindly send it to imcqueen@nbnet.nb.ca
I want to send it to some friends in Melbourne and others with Melbourne experience.
Tks.
Ian
If the cryosphere is so “directly observable” then why is Caitlin trying to collect data, and why can’t the researchers agree on what is happening around the poles?
Pamela Gray (17:21:26) :
This isn’t a nightmare, its a comedy. These people are fast becoming late night jokes. Eventually, comedians will pick up on the discrepancy between warnings and reality.
There’s a ‘comedy’ car insurance ad running in Australia, where the ‘unexplained’ arrival of a flock of black swans is blamed on global warming by a woman making a phone call to her friend. It’s very quick but very significant I suspect. I’m proud to say that I’m insured with the company responsible 🙂
A good 1958 newsreel video of the USS Skate. Wherever they surfaced and pushed ice off the sub in the video looks to be not more than a couple feet thick. The report claims they surfaced 10 times.
http://www.icue.com/portal/site/iCue/chapter/?cuecard=41751
And from JohnDaly:
“the Skate found open water both in the summer and following winter. We surfaced near the North Pole in the winter through thin ice less than 2 feet thick. […] On both trips we were able to find open water. We were not able to surface through ice thicker than 3 feet.”
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
Anybody else having trouble accessing the NSIDC site this weekend?
BTW, tonight’s Bloomberg reports:
Forest Fires Mostly Overlooked by Climate Modelers (Update1)
By Jeremy van Loon
April 24 (Bloomberg) — Forest fires worsen global warming and make it harder for societies to adapt to drought and higher temperatures, scientists said.
Trees and brush set ablaze, by accident or through slash- and-burn farming in the tropics, fuel hotter weather, said Jennifer Balch, a researcher at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara, California. That’s because smoke adds more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
“We don’t think about fire correctly,” Balch said. “It’s very intrinsic to the planet.” …
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=avUxLQ0scEwA&refer=home
carlbrannen (18:41:58) :
I think that it’s human nature to think in terms of “sinners”. Once you find a sinner, you blame everything on him/it. Now it’s CO2. It seems to be pretty easy to get a lot of people to believe this sort of thing, provided that you can make some sort of a weak case for it. The argument works best when you have lots of sins to connect the sinner with.
The worst example of this was when substantial percentages of the German population blamed the banks busted in the Great Depression, the starvation blockade after the end of WW1, the threat of societal collapse due to Communism, the hyperinflation of the 1920s, and the unemployment of the 1930s, all on the Jews.
For that, you need state sponsored propaganda; i.e. control of the news media, control of education, sanctions against anybody not toeing the partyline, and the “big lie”.
Hmmm, maybe you do have a point ….
–Mike Ramsey
Let me add, that if forest fires “worsen global warming”, then why have we entered a cooling period?
We haven’t entered a cooling period. At best we are holding steady-ish. 2009 temps have almost universally been above 2008, but nearly parallel the 06/07 temps.
I hope and pray that trend continues, or we resume lowering. But I think it’s a bit of a stretch to say we are “cooling.”
theBuckWheat (20:32:27) :
Let me add, that if forest fires “worsen global warming”, then why have we entered a cooling period?
Because subsurface materials are absorbing-storing less heat now than in 1998 due to the weakening of solar irradiance.
Re: fires
Before Europeans arrived here, I believe there would have been absolutely huge fires that raged in the West, the Midwest and up the Eastern seaboard. In periods of drought, lightning and human started fires could have blazed unchecked for months. I have seen fires in Maine and Eastern Canada burn for weeks on end and that is with modern firefighting.
The Delaware Indians would clear land under the forest canopy with fire. The forests were mostly chestnut which, like Redwood, was very fire resistant. It would be silly to image that some of these fires didn’t get out of control or in periods of extreme drought, become extremely large. Vast areas of the prairies would also have burned. California’s central valley was mostly grasses “as tall as a horse” when Europeans first arrived. In periods of drought, fire from Bakersfield to Davis wouldn’t be beyond the realm of possibility.
I expect that there would have been absolutely huge fires on the North American continent before the arrival of Europeans that could have spanned hundreds of miles.
Man, that explains why I always felt Walt Meier was walking on eggs when speaking out to the media and posting here… I always felt some discomfort in his interventions. I posted this thought a while back when the NSIDC sensor failed. I did not know then that Mark Serreze would succeed him but I recall writing that “Serreze must be breathing on his neck”… Yes alarmism pays and perhaps when retired Meier might come clean.
I notice that the NSIDC website at http://nsidc.org/ is down. Let me invoke the conspiratorial side of me and suggest that they are cleansing the site of any hint of contrarian data. It would be wise to capture the data in Google cache before it gets updated too.
I also wonder if a reasonable guy like Walt Meier who has contributed here at WUWT, would become an “unperson” as a result of this change and be marginalized and then removed.
This is not good for science.