Bad news from NSIDC

Last year we had the forecast from NSIDC’s Dr. Mark Serreze of an “ice free north pole”. As we know, that didn’t even come close to being true. Summer 2008 had more arctic ice than summer 2007, and summer 2007 was not “ice free” by any measure.

serreze_2008_forecast
Click to read original story from ABC News

In spite of the spectacular failure of Dr. Serreze’s widely quoted prediction, there were no retractions, no apologies for misleading the public, no admissions of error, and  inaccurate stories like the one above are still in place. So what could possibly be worse news from NSIDC?

The very man who made that ridiculous statement of “an ice free north pole in 2008”  is set to become the “incoming director” of NSIDC. Apparently alarmism pays, especially if you get press.

serreze_talk

Does anybody live in Maryland that can attend this talk? I’d just love to see what sort of “heat” he’s talking about “cranking up”.

Goddard Visitor Center

8800 Greenbelt Road – Code 130

Greenbelt, Md 20771

301.286.3978 – Phone

301.286.1781 – Fax

I wonder what new “forecasts” will be coming in the new Goddard movie “frozen”? Gosh, that spherical screen is really important in getting the science facts across don’t you think?

Frozen interactive image

Interactive Feature: FROZEN – View the trailer, gallery, and more.

Goddard’s New ‘Science On a Sphere’ Movie Opens Nationwide This Spring

In an era when change itself seems to be the subject holding people’s attention, NASA presents a spectacular new movie that depicts the changing Earth. Called “Frozen,” this film introduces the idea of our transitioning home planet in ways that have never been seen before.

“Frozen” brings Earth to life, projecting images of our planet onto completely spherical movie screens hanging in the center of darkened theaters. Turning in space, images on the screen become a portal onto a virtual planet, complete with churning, swirling depictions of huge natural forces moving below. “Frozen” showcases the global cryosphere, those places on Earth where temperatures don’t generally rise above water’s freezing point. As one of the most directly observable climate gauges, the changing cryosphere serves as a proxy for larger themes.

“Frozen” opens around the country and in several locations around the world on March 27, 2009. For a partial list of Science On a Sphere theaters, click here.

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Sam the Skeptic
April 26, 2009 3:34 pm

I think today’s postings finally confirm that the lunatics HAVE taken over the asylum.
Trip to Mars, anyone?

Steven Goddard
April 26, 2009 3:44 pm

Hopefully some of the Catlin crew will be there to talk about their experiences with the -40 degree Arctic springtime heat.

Leon Brozyna
April 26, 2009 3:51 pm

Job requirement must be for that of a contortionist.
When this summer’s ice exceeds that of last year, the spin that’ll emanate from NSIDC will sound like it’s coming from a pretzel; heck, in a couple year’s time, as the Arctic continues to recover, he may even start to look like a pretzel!

April 26, 2009 3:52 pm

NSDIC — Now into cooking ice. What’s next, cooking cities …
Need new source of real and accurate data, or we need to do our own ice from raw satellite data software.

tommoriarty
April 26, 2009 4:03 pm

I am still waiting for David Barber, of the Univeristy of Manitoba, to respond to my $1000 challenge. He predicted that the arctic will be ice free by the summer of 2015. I proposed a wager. I am still waiting.
Tom

jack mosevich
April 26, 2009 4:06 pm

The last phrase of CATHERINE BRAHIC’s column is “watch this space…”
Well, I am still watching..
While trying to find if she did post an update (I could not find any) I came across this: (anti-skeptic “facts”)
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462-climate-change-a-guide-for-the-perplexed.html

April 26, 2009 4:07 pm

“When this summer’s ice exceeds that of last year, the spin that’ll emanate from NSIDC will sound like it’s coming from a pretzel”

We’ve already seen your “pretzel twisting” of the standards happening: Now, it’s the “second year” ice that is threatened -> becuase “second year” ice is “easier to melt” than earlier ice (supposedly longer lived) that is harder to melt.
So, regardless of whether the overall ice area increased from 2007 – 2008, or from 2008 – 2009, it doesn’t matter because global warming is “a threat to the “easy-to-melt” second year ice. ”
Next year, it will threaten to even-easier-to-melt third year ice.

dhogaza
April 26, 2009 4:10 pm

It is clear that he was talking of the North Pole itself, not the Arctic Ice Cap in its entirety:

“There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.”
Despite its news value in the media, the North Pole being ice free is not in itself significant. To scientists, Serreze points out, “this is just another point on the globe”.

So this:

As we know, that didn’t even come close to being true. Summer 2008 had more arctic ice than summer 2007, and summer 2007 was not “ice free” by any measure.

Has no relation to his actual comment.
Nor did he “forecast” an ice-free North Pole. A “possibility” is not a certainty.
REPLY: Bird man, you know nothing about handling the media, what matters is the public perception and headlines, like the one at ABC for which he is directly responsible. The fact that he did NOTHING, NOT ONE THING, to mitigate the error he started in the press, speaks volumes. Spin it however you want, but he did nothing to correct it. A scientist of character would act to correct the misconception he started. Yet here it is, a year later, and the ABC story is still up, unchanged.
And I should add this comment from Serreze “this is just another point on the globe”. What absolute tripe. It is the only point he is interested and the focus of the story itself.
I saw Serreze recently ona History channel special and he repeated the same sorts of propaganda in his interview. He knows EXACTLY what he is doing.
– Anthony

Robert Bateman
April 26, 2009 4:11 pm

Melting ice, dead trees backlit by a hot orange fireball sun that mercilessly cooks the life out of Earth. Endless desert, death, no water.
Did I miss anything?

Ron de Haan
April 26, 2009 4:13 pm

Without intending to insult any person wearing a beard, but Dr. Serreze looks a bit like Santa. You believe in Santa or not.
NSIDC without a shimmer of a doubt is a warmist platform, shame on them.

Ed Zuiderwijk
April 26, 2009 4:22 pm

Should we continue to trust data coming out of Bolder from now on? Or should we send him a hat as welcoming present on behalf of WUWT for him to eat when the data of his own institute tell him that he’s got it all wrong? To be consumed in the presence of the worldpress?

Mike Bryant
April 26, 2009 4:25 pm

Why do I have this bad feeling that the new movie “Frozen”, will be effective propaganda? “Cold Matters”… that’s why the 2007 ice melt will be prominently featured as Serreze drones on about our burning, dying planet, as an impressive heartwrenching score makes even the most hard-hearted shed a tear. The polar bears will starve and drown on cue as biologists describe the desperate animals that have even had to resort to cannibalism. We will fly closely over miles upon miles of dry, cracked steaming lakebeds. The sea level rises will be so much better handled than the simple graphics used by AIT. Every scenario that has been credibly discounted and disproven over and over will once again be brought back from the dead. Kilimanjaro is just too good, too cinematic NOT to use. The Hockeystick Graph will be new and improved and even scarier. As the spaghetti lines of the graph move slowly from left to right around the huge sphere, the violins, the timpani, the trumpets will crescendo along with the upturn to our present day. The ocean will boil and churn and acidify before our very eyes. There will even be footage of the tsunami along with the colorful global sea level images. Hurricane Katrina will play a major role as one of the villains of this fraudulent main feature. Of course, the real criminal in this farce is you and me and a way of life that has brought even more life and wealth into this world, because we are the spreaders of the filthy CO2 that has brought our beautiful planet to within a hairsbreadth of destruction. And to prove our culpability the Mauna Loa data along with those beautiful colorful moving images from the AIRS team will put the nail in our coffin…
Don’t worry if you can’t afford a ticket, it’s free if you just register to vote.
Almost forgot… you also get your choice of an action figure made of soap. Gore, Hansen, or Mann… which dope on a rope will YOU choose??

TerryBixler
April 26, 2009 4:27 pm

These people get there queues from their source of funding. Waxman and Pelosi are not far from the control of the money. Obama and the EPA are writing the script. Science is not part of the agenda. The solar minimum continues and certainly has an impact on the ice in both poles. No word of a connection from NSIDC, maybe it is all just anecdotal. Maybe they could show there is absolutely no correlation. Maybe they are hoping for an Oscar like Al’s after their premier. Science is really all about public awareness in any case, we all know that.

Robert Wood
April 26, 2009 4:38 pm

Robert Bateman (16:11:36) :
Melting ice, dead trees backlit by a hot orange fireball sun that mercilessly cooks the life out of Earth. Endless desert, death, no water.
Did I miss anything?

Floods! Oh… and career promotions.

Bill Illis
April 26, 2009 4:42 pm

I think you can actually download the movie here. Would take more than a couple of hours to download though given the different options are 1.3 – 1.9 Gig files.
ftp://public.sos.noaa.gov/extras/frozen/
There is a low-quality introduction version here (108 MB) which I watched. Looks like it will be another of those glaciers are melting, sea level will rise, Al Gore’s new condominium on the ocean will be under water.
ftp://public.sos.noaa.gov/extras/frozen/media/

Stephen Skinner
April 26, 2009 4:43 pm

It seems that in 1958 the submarine USS Skate became the first vessel to surface at the Pole. How thin would the ice have to be to allow a submarine to break through?

Just Want Truth...
April 26, 2009 4:46 pm

Mark Serreze “incoming director” of NSIDC?
This is incomprehensible.
Politics is power.

dhogaza
April 26, 2009 4:47 pm

The fact that he did NOTHING, NOT ONE THING, to mitigate the error he started in the press, speaks volumes.

Where is the error in his statement that there was a possibility of the north pole being ice free last summer?
Where was the error in the headline that said exactly the same thing?
What is there to correct?
REPLY: Oh puhleeeze. Where is the result of the headline “North pole could be ice free in 2008”? Show me that result, you can’t because it didn’t happen. You are defending scaremongering, and it shows that you have no scruples. What next, defending Waxman? Serreze did nothing; zero, zilch, nada, he let the error he started live on in headlines worldwide. If I had made a statement in error that the media picked up you’d be all over me to fix it, retract it, deny it, whatever, Serreze gets a free pass…because you (and your friends) have no scruples. – Anthony

Murgatroyd
April 26, 2009 4:48 pm

And our next news item:
“President Obama Names Trofim Lysenko to Head Department of Agriculture” …

April 26, 2009 4:52 pm

Hmmm …. batting zero and getting promoted. I need to get away from using any sort of logic and rationale, instead go with a feel-good knee-jerk reaction and learn also how to compromise my soul -er- position. I’m just not going to get ahead by adhering to morals, ethics or standards …

Just Want Truth...
April 26, 2009 4:56 pm

“Ron de Haan (16:13:07) : Dr. Serreze looks a bit like Santa.”
To me he looks like he’s from the 60’s. Same with William Connolley.
Baby boomer self loathing (as it was put in an earlier thread in WUWT) is in political power. Apparently baby boomers feel that everyone has enough money to pay for their religious feelings of guilt—even the elderly in America’s Northern United States who pay ~$400.00 a month to heat their houses in the winter.
What will stop all of this???

Just Want Truth...
April 26, 2009 4:57 pm

I just got up from taking a nap to see this—am I still sleeping and having a surreal nightmare??

crosspatch
April 26, 2009 5:10 pm

Good thing he wasn’t around in 1959 when there was less ice at the pole. Caption for that photo is “Skate (SSN-578), surfaced at the North Pole, 17 March 1959.”

crosspatch
April 26, 2009 5:14 pm

from 1962.
Seadragon (SSN-584), foreground, and her sister Skate (SSN-578) during a rendezvous at the North Pole in August 1962. Note the men on the ice beyond the submarines.
Seems to me that it isn’t all that unusual to have no ice at the pole.

Neville
April 26, 2009 5:15 pm

O/T, but some GOOD news from downunder, the country’s top rating TV network breakfast show went big on Ian Wishart’s new book Air Con:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/videos/2365942
And dedicated WattsUp readers will note some photos from the surfacestations project feature in the book and are credited – they’re the ones in the video clip above.
Link for book itself is http://www.ianwishart.com

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