Although we’ve been covering this quiet sun issue for over a year on WUWT, the light bulb seems to have gone on for mainstream media right about now.
There is growing press coverage about the current state of the sun, most recently from Charles Osgood of CBS News as well as the BBC and other major outlets. While the sun slumbers deeper and has missed its cyclic snooze alarm, our media is finally waking up to the solar somnolence.
Here is a short roundup of news articles on this subject today:
‘Still Sun’ baffling astronomers
Scientists warn sun has dimmed
Sun ‘at its quietest for 100 years’
Has the sun gone in? Earth’s closest star ‘dimmest it’s been for a century’
So the question arises, now that this has been identified, what should we call it?
There have been some good ideas, such as naming it after Jack Eddy, who coined the phrase “Maunder Minimum“. There’s been some discussion of a “Gore Minimum”, but I don’t like the idea of giving Gore credit for something he has nothing to do with, or even likely understands. There’s been suggestion of “The Hansen Minimum” which makes a little more sense, since he’s an astronomer by training. On that note, Leif Svalgaard predicted this, so maybe it should be his honor.
So, I’ve decided to have a poll, and I’ll take suggestions for other names than what I’ve listed.
I voted for the Gore Minimum because he is responsible for more climate awareness than any other current figure and the Sun has more impact on the climate than any other factor. (Not necessarily climate variability, but remove the Sun and see how much influence the other factors have on total climate!)
It would be good for future generations that when they learn about the Gore Minimum, they also learn that Gore was wrong about his claims.
Great idea!
I agree with Mark, “LANDSCHEIDT MINIMUM” in honor of a real scientist, Theodore Landscheidt.”
Another possibility, “NO MORE GORE MINIMUM” in honor of a politician, an enemy of science, and our best known Nobel Prize winner.
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
http://www.thesunisiron.com/
Allan, no problem; The paper was issued in 2003, a year before his death; here is a link for more of his papers:
http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/papers-by-dr-theodor-landscheidt/
I had a video link of a presentation by Landscheidt on cycles and the like, but the link appears to have expired/broken.
Heard last night on Coast to Coast, Dr. Michio Kaku, NYC College, warning of impending EMP disaster from “Solar Tsunamis.” It appears that if we can’t blame climate on man-made CO2 – then we’ll have to accuse the sun of heresy.
The warning was offered as “the sun is having a tantrum and a sudden explosion (CME) could occur at anytime, destroying Earth’s communications networks, electrical grids and all things… electric.”
Heavens! That wily ol’ sun is up to no good while feigning sleep! Comments please.
Finallly, the solar minimum might be named HANSEN’S DEMISE to remind us all of the validity of ancient truths:
“Truth is victorious, never untruth.” [Mundaka Upanishad 3.1.6; Qur’an 17.85]
“Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.” [Proverbs 16:18, King James Bible]
Oliver K. Manuel
http://www.omatumr.com/
I vote for the Oort II minimum – If you want to know why, go and see my paper at:
http://plasmaresources.com/ozwx/wilson/Syzygy.pdf
and flick through to Figure 7 on page 12.
Failing this I would support oneof the following combinations:
Jose/Landscheidt Minimum – serious suggestion
Gore/Svalgaard Minimum – funny suggestion
Geoff Sharp (07:41:25) :
Its great to see Planetary Influence Theory has a solid following.
Yeah, as much a cult as AGW, it seems…
Talking about specks and spots and historical sitings and the reliability of those historical sitings. What is the average length in time of a medium to large size sunspot, is it hours, days, weeks or months, and would it have mattered whether these historical sitings were taken every day.
Many thanks to all the people who’ve endorsed My “Inconvenient Minimum.” I think it’s the best choice for the “informal” name, if I say so myself.
However, I was very tickled by the ingenuity of Ralph Ellis’s “Gore-dian Minima.”
I think that, if this poll is rerun, there should be nominations for both formal and informal names.
Richard111 (22:41:19) wrote:
“If this turns out to be a significant minimum, I feel the name for it should carry a warning to the future to beware hubris.”
That’s an implicit endorsement of my second-choice name, “The Mooning Minimum.” (I wrote, “This has … Sting (Nature is expressing its contempt toward its shallow and simplistic diagnosticians with a visual “raspberry”).”)
There seems to be another (not micro but) picosunspot slightly above the equator on the left.
Rob (08:54:45) :
What is the average length in time of a medium to large size sunspot
Large spots live for weeks, most spots are small with a lifetime of a day or two.
“Yeah, as much a cult as AGW, it seems…”
We will see in the future what will happen and where the cards will fall, but as far as I know Landscheidt had some predictions that came true with regards to ENSO for ex.
There are many who propose different mechanisms and the current unusual (in terms of the last 150 yrs) minimum can at least bring forward some debate, discussion and consideration instead of mere dismissal.
Mike Bryant (17:08:56) :
Except It’s not a British motorcar company…
Leif Svalgaard (08:48:34) :
Geoff Sharp (07:41:25) :
Its great to see Planetary Influence Theory has a solid following.
Yeah, as much a cult as AGW, it seems…
Hi Leif, could you explain some of your skepticism of Planetary Influence?
Thanks!
Erick
How about the “Sendler Minimum” in honor of Irena Sendler, the woman who should have won Al Gore’s 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for her actions to save 2500 children during WWII.
Since the award is not awarded posthumously, that was her last chance to win, as she passed away last year.
Erick Barnes (09:38:03) :
Hi Leif, could you explain some of your skepticism of Planetary Influence?
this has been hashed through many times, but here are some reasons:
1) The various followers advocate [and claim fantastic correlations] different periods: Jose, 179 yr; Geoff, 172 yr; Landscheidt, 166 yr; and more. They can’t all be right.
2) A popular [but not the only one] ‘mechanism’ is ‘transfer’ of angular momentum [AM] from the Sun’s orbit to its spin and back. This mechanism is a non-mechanism because the variations of the Sun’s orbital AM is precisely balanced by a similar and opposite variation of the orbital AM of the planets, so there is no ‘extra’ AM to transfer.
3) There is no coupling mechanism to transfer AM other than tides and those are extremely small [less that 1/1000 of a meter] and act one- way only: slowing down the Sun, so can’t give rise to cycles.
4) The magnetic polarities reverse in every cycle which is unexplained by gravitational influences [although there are variants of the planetary theories that are supposed to work with electric forces instead – which still don’t explain reversals].
5) Planetary theory is not needed as there are physics-based dynamo theories that give a good account of the solar cycle.
6) The practitioners of the theory advocate things that are contrary to physical laws on the assumption that perhaps there are more between heaven and earth than we know [yet] that when discovered will change the face of physics. In my book, such claims are a give-away for snake oil.
“The George Walker Bush Minimum” Why not? He’s getting blamed for everything else.
it looks like a new SC24 plage area is appearing at about the 10 o’clock position on the sun’s surface…we shall see if it produces a spot.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.html
For who is interested in the work and predictions of Dr. Theodor Landscheidt, you can pay a visit to the following web site.
http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/papers-by-dr-theodor-landscheidt/
A listing of PDF downloads with a short introduction:
Papers by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
There are two online sources of Dr Theodor Landscheidt’s papers I am aware of – if anyone knows of any other online papers, please post the URL’s in the comments below.
Perhaps the best known of these is the Climate Change: Guest Papers page of the late John Daly’s Still Waiting for Greenhouse website.
A probably less well known source of many of his earlier papers is the SELECTED PUBLICATION OF THEODOR LANDSCHEIDT page on the Bourabai Research website, where you will find many of his methods in far more detail.
Below is a list of direct links to these papers mainly in chronological order from both the websites mentioned above. I fully acknowledge the service to the community both those websites are providing by making these quite interesting papers freely available.
The comments / abstracts accompanying each link are copied straight out of the page it was found on for your convenience in looking for specific material:
UPDATE: thanks to storage space generously donated by my brother David, PDF versions of all these papers are now available to make it easier for researchers looking into Dr Theodor Landscheidt’s work, with links below.
SWINGING SUN, 79-YEAR CYCLE AND CLIMATIC CHANGE [PDF 309K]
J. interdiscipl. Cycle Res., 1981, vol. 12, number 1, pp. 3-19.
ABSTRACT. The secular cycle of solar activity is related to the sun’s oscillatory motion about the center of mass of the solar system. Comparatively short periods of revolution with relatively high rates of curvature constitute a potential for crucial values of the time integral of torque AL = J t0 r (t) dt which seem to give rise to a weak but long lasting flow of solar plasma that modulates short-term flow due to the dynamo effect. Relatively strong impulses of the torque A L occur at mean intervals of 19.86 years. Four consecutive impulses respectively define a permanent wave with a quasiperiod of 79.46 years which determines the distribution of positive and negative extrema in activity. Phases of 0° or 90° indicate a potential for peaks and phases of 180° or 270° can lead to troughs. Such potentials are actually released if A L transgresses a definite threshold value. The ensuing interval variations in the secular cycle are verified by records of sunspots and aurorae dating back to the 4th century AD. Rare activity-deficient periods like the Maunder Minimum, which according to Eddy et al. are related to changes in the Earth’s climate, solely occur when AL reaches exceptional values meeting a special criterion. This is confirmed by radiocarbon data going back to the 6th millenimum BC. The next minimum in the 79-year cycle will occur in 1990. It will be more pronounced than the minimum in 1811.
CYCLES OF SOLAR FLARES AND WEATHER [PDF 202K]
In: Moerner, N.A. & Karlen, W., Hsg.:
Climatic changes on a yearly to millenial basis. Dordrecht, D. Reidel, 1984, 475, 476.
ABSTRACT. Sunspots only constitute potentials of solar activity which are actually released by solar eruptions. Single energetic flares and periods of enhanced eruptional activity seem to be related to weath-er. This is valid for the quality of weather forecasts (Scherhag, Reiter), atmospheric circulation changes (Schuurmans) , rainfall (Clarkson) , and thunderstorm incidence (Bossolasco et a1.). There are models that explain this effect (e.g. Roberts and Olson, Flarkson, Neubauer, and Bucha). This poses the problem of the prediction of solar flares. Such eruptions seem to be distributed in a stochastic manner. But closer examination reveals cycles of solar flares with mean periods of 9 years, 2.25 years, and 3 months. They are accessible to forecasts, because they run parallel with special phases in the Sun’s motion about the center of mass of the solar system, and with a cyclic pattern formed b/ the change in the angular acceleration of the vector of the tidal forces of the planets Venus, Earth, and Jupiter.
CYCLIC DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGETIC X-RAY FLARES [PDF 161K]
Solar Physics 107 (1986) 195 – 199.
ABSTRACT. The Blackman-Tukey power spectrum of flare generated X-ray bursts > X1 observed from 1970 to 1982 by satellite instrumentation (SOLRAD/SMS/GOES) shows prominent peaks at 156, 4.8, 2.8, and 1.1 months. According to a statistical test of the significance of the deviation of these peaks from Markov red noise, the peaks at 2.8 and 1.1 months are significant at the 99% confidence level while the peak at 4.8 months reaches the 95 % level. A replication by means of the maximum entropy spectral analysis (MEM) yields the same prominent peaks at the same frequencies.
SOLAR ROTATION, IMPULSES OF THE TORQUE IN THE SUN’S MOTION, AND CLIMATIC VARIATION [PDF 461K]
Climatic Change 12, 265-295, 1988.
ABSTRACT. Running variance analysis and maximum entropy spectral analysis applied to Mount Wilson rotation data yield arguments in favor of a connection between variations in the Sun’s rotation rate, energetic X-ray flares, and impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun’s irregular motion about the barycenter of the planetary system. Such IOT, that have been shown to be related to the secular cycle of solar activity and excursions of the Maunder minimum type, also seem to be linked to outstanding peaks in geomagnetic activity, maxima in ozone concentration, incidence of blocking type circulation, as well as rainfall over Central Europe, England/Wales, eastern United States, and India. Statistical tests, that confirm these links, additionally point to IOT connection with temperature in Central Europe and the number of icebergs that pass south of latitude 48° N. IOT relationship with X-ray flares and strong geomagnetic storms was tested in successful long range forecasts.
Sun-Earth-Man: a Mesh of Cosmic Oscillations (Book 1989) [PDF 3.9M]
How planets regulate solar eruptions, geomagnetic storms, conditions of life, and economic cycles.
CREATIVE FUNCTIONS OF CYCLES: Predictable Phase-Shift in Solar-Terrestrial Cycles [PDF 269K]
Foundation for the Study of Cycles, May/June 1989
ABSTRACT. Recent research has shown that cycles are at the core of creativity. They form antagonistic centers of polar tension, the competing realms of which generate fractal boundaries, sites of instability where new forms emerge. This knowledge, when applied to cycles and boundaries in the solar system, makes it possible to predict phases of instability, phase-shift, and emergence of new patterns in solar-terrestrial cycles.
PREDICTABLE CYCLES IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY AND OZONE LEVELS [PDF 254K]
Foundation for the Study of Cycles, Sept/Oct 1989
Geomagnetic storms, which are released by energetic solar eruptions, are important geophysical events. Newer results indicate that there is a connection with weather. There is shown the zonal type of atmospheric circulation as a result of geomagnetic disturbances caused by the sun’s erup-tional activity, and meridional circulation related to a lull in geomagnetic activity. This is a permanent feature that regulates the prevalence of warm westerly flow or cool arctic air over Europe and North America.
MINI-CRASH IN TUNE WITH COSMIC RYTHMS [PDF 626K]
Foundation for the Study of Cycles, Nov/Dec 1989
Energetic solar eruptions and corresponding disturbances in the earth’s magnetic field form a solar-terrestrial bridge for conveying instability, which induces a change of pattern in all kinds of terrestrial cycles. The last phase of major instability started in 1968 and ended in 1972. The next phase will begin in 2002 and come to an end in 2011.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND IMPULSES OF THE TORQUE IN THE SUN’S MOTION [PDF 269K]
In: K. H. Schatten and A. Arking, eds.: Climate impact of solar variability. Greenbelt, NASA, 259-266, 1990.
The analysis of major change in the angular momentum of the sun’s irregular motion about the barycenter of the solar system, represented by extrema in the running variance of impulses of the torque (IOT), discloses a connection with both extrema in the Gleissberg cycle of secular sunspot activity and maxima in the thickness of varves from Lake Saki, Crimea. This significant relationship can be traced back to the 7th century, further inquiries link the running variance in IOT to rainfall over central Europe, England, Wales, eastern United States, and India, as well as to temperature in Europe. This significant correlation covers more than 130 years.
THE GOLDEN SECTION: A Building Block of Cyclic Structure [PDF 558K]
Foundation for the Study of Cycles, May/June 1992
ABSTRACT. In this paper it is shown how to reveal the hidden cycles in the Nature, society and economy. The mechanism of forming of such cycles and their structure and are shown.
Solar Activity: A Dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics [PDF 676K]
(1998) Demonstrates that climate changes are predominantly the result of solar activity, not human activity).
See also Comments on ‘Solar Activity: A Dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics’ [PDF 126K]
by Charles ‘Chick’ F. Keller (USA)
Disputes findings by Dr Landscheidt on solar-climate linkages.
Also, see `Open Review’ of Chick Keller’s paper Part 1 [PDF 269K] and Part 2 [PDF 139K].
EXTREMA IN SUNSPOT CYCLE LINKED TO SUN’S MOTION [PDF 203K]
Solar Physics 189, 413 – 424, 1999
ABSTRACT. Partitions of 178.8-year intervals between instances of retrograde motion in the Sun’s oscillation about the center of mass of the solar system seem to provide synchronization points for the timing of minima and maxima in the 11 -year sunspot cycle. In the investigated period 1632-1990, the statistical significance of the relationship goes beyond the level P = 0.001. The extrapolation of the observed pattern points to sunspot maxima around 2000.6 and 2011.8. If a further connection with long-range variations in sunspot intensity proves reliable, four to five weak sunspot cycles (R < 80) are to be expected after cycle 23 with medium strength (R ~ 100).
SOLAR WIND NEAR EARTH: INDICATOR OF VARIATIONS IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE [PDF 144K]
ESA-SP 463,497-500, 2000.
Abstract. Near-Earth variations in the solar wind, measured by the geomagnetic aa index since 1868, are closely correlated with global temperature (r = 0.96; P < 10-7). Geomagnetic activity leads temperature by 4 to 8 years. Allowing for this temperature lag, an outstanding aa peak around 1990 could explain the high global temperature in 1998. After 1990 the geomagnetic aa data show a steep decline comparable to the decrease between 1955 and 1967, followed by falling temperatures from 1961 through 1973 in spite of growing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This points to decreasing global temperature during the next 10 years.
Solar Activity Controls El Nino and La Nina [PDF 293K]
A new solar model to explain the timing of previous ENSO events and to predict future ones. Plus, Reactions to Landscheidt’s paper (415 KB Zip file), or [PDFs: Part 1 397K, Part 2 423K, Part 3 308K, Part 4 447K].
‘Top Climate Events’ Linked to Solar Motion Cycle (3 Jan 2000) [PDF 172K]
NOAA’s top climate events of the 20th Century correlate with solar motion cycle
Sun’s Role in the Satellite-Balloon-Surface Issue (26 Mar 2000) [PDF 66K]
How the satellite and sonde data shows a more natural response to the sun than does the surface record.
New Confirmation of Strong Solar Forcing of Climate (7 Nov 2000) [PDF 96K].
Recent flooding of the River Po in Italy was predicted in advance through Solar Motion Cycle analysis.
Solar Eruptions Linked to North Atlantic Oscillation (9 April 2001) [PDF].
After predicting that the next El Nino will peak late next year, Dr Landscheidt now shows that a similar correlation exists between solar motion/activity cycles and the N.A.O.
Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation Subjected To Solar Forcing (25 April 2001) [PDF 173K].
First ENSO, then the NAO (item above), now Dr Landscheidt completes the trilogy demonstrating that the 50-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also a product of solar forcing, not random chance.
El Nino Forecast Revisited (19 March 02) [PDF 287K]
Dr Landscheidt reviews his prediction made over 3 years ago on this website of the El Nino now developing, and describes his method in layman’s terms for the benefit of non-expert readers.
Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity (15 Mar 2003) [PDF 250K].
Following from his stunning success in predicting the timing of the current El Nino over 4 years ago, Dr Theodor Landscheidt has now applied his solar analysis technique to the problem of periodic drought conditions in the U.S. He has developed a long-range forecast covering the period up to 2030. He predicts that the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years. A drought peak is to be expected from 2025 on and should last about five years.
New Little Ice Age instead of global warming [PDF 429K]
Energy and Environment 14, 327-350. – 2003
Abstract: Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Nino years before the respective event.
Decadal-Scale Variations in El-Nino Intensity (20 May 2003) [PDF 131K].
Where does El Nino and La Nina go from here? Using his solar motions analysis (which successfully predicted the last La Nina and the recent El Nino), Dr Landscheidt looks 80 years into the future and finds La Nina more dominant.
Variations in CO2 Growth Rate Associated with Solar Activity (21 Sept 03) [PDF 103K].
Solar activity and solar motion variations are found to explain much of the variability of CO2 growth over the last several decades. The average annual increase over the last 10 years was 1.66 ppmv/yr, which is less than half that assumed by climate models.
The Unsettled Minimum
Andrew, I can’t believe anyone would object if you ran some ads.
A fine written piece about the current Solar Minimum by Philip Stott,
with a nice remark and link to WUWT. (That is why I have posted it.)
I really love the header of the article:
Is the sun a Global Warming Denier?
The Sun isn’t playing ball with the ‘global warmers’. Indeed, I expect one of our more rabid Labour ministers to come out any day now fatuously accusing the fading star of ‘global warming’ denial on a par with denying the effects of smoking or the link between HIV and AIDS.
But one has to laugh. The sun is currently so inactive that even our ‘global warming’-obsessed media has been forced, through heavily rose-tinted sunglasses, to admit the phenomenon, rushing to add, of course, that this doesn’t mean that ‘global warming’ has halted, or that we must stop mending our evil ways.
‘Global Warming’ In Trouble
Yet, the truth is that ‘global warming’ [not, let’s be clear, climate change] is possibly in trouble. The whole point is that climate is the most complex of systems, and that it is impossible – madness even – to try to predict future climates with respect to one politically-selected variable.
So what precisely is all the fuss about this very big other variable, the Sun? Put simply, a thing called ‘Solar Cycle 24’ is long overdue; it just can’t seem to get going. Solar-cycle intensity is measured by the maximum number of sunspots. Sunspots are dark blotches on the Sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots, the more likely it is that major solar storms will occur. The next 11-year cycle of solar storms (i.e. ‘Solar Cycle 24’) was predicted to begin in Autumn, 2006, but it appears to have been seriously delayed.
This is what Paul Stanko of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is reported as saying about this on the wonderful Watts Up With That? web site:
“My running mean of the International Sunspot Number [ISN} for 2009 just dipped below 1.00. For anything comparable you now need to go back before 1913 (which scored a 1.43) which could mean we’re now competing directly with the Dalton Minimum [see below for details].
Just in case you’d like another tidbit, here is something that puts our 20 to 30 day spotless runs in perspective… the mother of all spotless runs (in the heart of the Maunder Minimum, of course!) was from October 15, 1661 to August 2, 1671. It totaled 3,579 consecutive spotless days, all of which had obs[ervations].”
So Why Do Sunspots Concern Us Here On Planet Earth?
But why does a spotless sun matter to you and me? The reason is simple: there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth’s climates.
During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the Sun. Solar flares and vast explosions, called coronal mass ejections, shoot energetic photons and highly-charged matter towards Earth, affecting the planet’s ionosphere and geomagnetic field, potentially disrupting power grids, critical communications, satellites, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), and even threatening astronauts with harmful radiation. These storms also illuminate night skies with brilliant sheets of red and green, called auroras or aurorae – the Northern Lights (aurora borealis) and the Southern Lights (aurora australis).
However, sunspot numbers also affect the temperature of the Earth. A famous student of solar cycles was Edward Walter Maunder (1851-1928). Maunder was an English astronomer who identified an historical climate period, dating from 1645 to 1715, which is now named after him as the ‘Maunder Minimum’ [see the graph right: reproduced under the GNU Free Documentation Licence Version 1.2. Original by the excellent ‘Global Warming Art’ website].
This was a period in the Little Ice Age when sunspots became very rare, as noted by observers of the era. During one 30-year period within the Maunder Minimum, astronomers recorded only about 50 sunspots. Although a simplistic correlation is rightly contested, the Maunder Minimum thus appears to coincide with the middle – and the severest part – of the Little Ice Age.
Moreover, a second time a cycle was delayed like our current ‘Solar Cycle 24’ occurred during the so-called Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790. Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon’s Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots.
Thus, what currently is happening to the average temperature of the Earth’s surface? Since at least 2001, it has been falling, and dramatically so during the last two years.
Nobody Knows
Will this lead to a new mini Little Ice Age? I don’t know, and nor does anybody else, anymore, I might add, than the global warmers know ‘the truth’ about climate.
What it does remind us, however, is that climate remains entirely beyond human control and management, and that there will be no predictable outcomes to managing CO2 emissions at the margins.
The question we should be asking every Minister who comes out blathering that we must ‘fix’ climate is: “What climate precisely are you going to conjure up for us?”
Political Madness
‘Global warming’ is a quite extraordinary political madness. In the immortal words of Bruno Latour: “Nous n’avons jamais été modernes”.
Coffee in the garden beneath a spotless Sun (if you value your eyes, please nobody look directly at the Sun!). And what shall I be reading in the garden? A scathing denunciation of the political claim that we can reduce carbon emissions written by the brilliant Dr. Peter W. Huber, Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow and co-author, most recently, of The Bottomless Well: ‘We Cannot Make a Dent in Global Carbon Emissions’ (FrontPage Magazine, April 19):
“Like medieval priests, today’s carbon brokers will sell you an indulgence that forgives your carbon sins. It will run you about $500 for 5 tons of forgiveness – about how much the typical American needs every year. Or about $2,000 a year for a typical four-person household. Your broker will spend the money on such things as reducing methane emissions from hog farms in Brazil.
But if you really want to make a difference, you must send a check large enough to forgive the carbon emitted by four poor Brazilian households, too – because they’re not going to do it themselves. To cover all five households, then, send $4,000. And you probably forgot to send in a check last year, and you might forget again in the future, so you’d best make it an even $40,000, to take care of a decade right now. If you decline to write your own check while insisting that to save the world we must ditch the carbon, you are just burdening your already sooty soul with another ton of self-righteous hypocrisy. And you can’t possibly afford what it will cost to forgive that…”
Do please read Peter’s trenchant piece in full – I bet the Sun has! And, if we do actually enter a severe cold period, just wait for that inevitable Headline: “It’s The Sun Wot Done It!”
http://web.me.com/sinfonia1/Clamour_Of_The_Times/Clamour_Of_The_Times/Entries/2009/4/22_Is_the_Sun_a_%E2%80%98Global_Warming%E2%80%99_Denier.html
Consumerism Minimum
“Modern Dark Age” minimum. It can stand as a marker for when the Enlightenment – Rational, Empirical thought, again gave way to romantic idealism and religion. When numbers, proof, and careful (skeptical) examination of evidence gave way to consensus, politics, .. and rage.
The question is, does this mark the beginning or end?
Peter (11:04:46) :
“Modern Dark Age” minimum. It can stand as a marker for when the Enlightenment – Rational, Empirical thought, again gave way to romantic idealism and religion. […]
The question is, does this mark the beginning or end?
Judging from the cultist following, this marks the beginning. What Carl Sagan called ‘The Demon-haunted World’.