Ice Target Zero

Shooting At a Rapidly Moving Target

Guest post by Steven Goddard

Arctic ice area has recovered to normal (one standard deviation) levels, so ice area no longer matters.  The issue is now thickness, which is measured by a team of explorers (Catlin) with a tape measure, who intentionally seek out flat (first year) ice for their route.

The team systematically seeks out flatter ice because it is easier to travel over and camp on. Typically, the surface of first‐year ice floes is flatter than that of multi‐year ice floes.

http://eva.nersc.no/vhost/arctic-roos.org/doc/observations/images/ssmi1_ice_area.png

The red line: inconventiently back in the 1 standard deviation range

Arctic ice area back in the normal range

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/images/iphone.anomaly.antarctic.png

Antarctic ice extent has been setting record highs, so the AGW team now claims that Antarctica doesn’t matter.

the scientific community has known for some time that that on a warming planet, sea ice in the global North (Arctic) is expected to melt while sea ice in the global South is expected to remain constant or even sightly grow.

Buoy data which shows thickening doesn’t count, because buoys don’t cover a wide enough region. Even though their region is much larger than the Catlin coverage.

Thus, while the buoys provide an excellent measurement of thickness at a point through the seasons, they do not provide good information on the large-scale spatial distribution of ice thickness.

Two year old multi-year ice no longer counts, the ice now has to be three years old to matter.

The Arctic is treading on thinner ice than ever before. Researchers say that as spring begins, more than 90 percent of the sea ice in the Arctic is only 1 or 2 years old. That makes it thinner and more vulnerable than at anytime in the past three decades, according to researchers with NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.

Dr. Hansen’s original prediction that Antarctic ice would diminish symmetrically with Arctic ice no longer matters, because the models have improved since he made that prediction.

A new NASA-funded study finds that predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic’s Southern Ocean. This adds new evidence of potential asymmetry between the two poles, and may be an indication that climate change processes may have different impact on different areas of the globe.  … numerical models have improved considerably over the last two decades”

Apparently the only valid target are the latest computer models, which are constantly backfitted to mask their failures to date.  Is this how science is supposed to be done?

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Pamela Gray

So, does that explain the solid 7 days of snow coming to the Wallowa Mountains?
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=PDT&llon=-117.978747&rlon=-116.368747&tlat=46.342084&blat=44.732084&smap=1&mp=0&map.x=109&map.y=184
Are we saying that increased warming also increases snow in the NH too?
Explain global warming again. I don’t get it.

INGSOC

Seems to be the way the weather is forecast as well! Whenever I read articles such as this, I picture a child standing with their fingers firmly stuck in their ears, crying “Na Na Na, I’m not listening!”
Resistance is futile!

Despite their own numbers proving them wrong, the Alarmists continue to practice their “religion”.
You can lead a horse to knowledge, but you can’t make him think.

Sue Pam

For a consistent comparison, is there a graph like the 1 Standard Deviation one available for the antarctic? I know it is above average, but is it statistically significant?

Bobby Lane

Up is down, left is right, black is white, wrong is right. Poor is rich, dead is alive, brown is green, and cold is hot. They’ve gone stark raving mad, I tell you, and they look totally normal.
First it was global warming, until it got COOLER. Then it was global climate change, until the two poles started acting differently. So now is it anthropogenic hemispheric climate change? Or should we just call them bi-polar now? (No offense to those to whom the real and actual medical term applies.)

Pamela Gray

Sue Pam, my middle name is Sue. Too funny. I’m Pam Sue and you’re Sue Pam. The only time anyone ever used my middle name was when I was a little girl and in serious trouble. Then it was “PAMELA SUE!” Whereupon I would drop and break whatever I was holding and run like hell.

Another outstanding earmark of pseudoscience: whatever occurs supports the theory–it cannot be falsified. Facts that refute earlier iterations are ignored or said to have been predicted all along, just unseen–oops.

Jack Green

Maybe that’s how an Ice age happens. The AG$Wers think we are going to have runaway warming but maybe we are going to see runaway freezing just like in the video but on a global scale. Interesting.

Mike Bryant

The studies are coming so fast and furious that there is nothing, and I mean nothing, that can falsify the blitzkrieg of global warming. If glaciers were fast approaching the great lakes, you can rest assured that this is precisely what the models had already predicted, even as study after study would pour forth from our higher institutions of learning detailing exactly why this had already been predicted. The rewriting of history continues apace, helped along by a populace ignorant of history, the internet, a collusion of interests, a consensus of the ennabled and the apathy of the majority.

GaryB

“Apparently the only valid target are the latest computer models, which are constantly backfitted to mask their failures to date. Is this how science is supposed to be done?”
No. This is decidedly NOT how science is supposed to be done. Tweaking models to fit current data, and then using those tweaked models to “predict” the current data is abhorent at best, and outrageously deceptive at worst. It seems that the “observables” that the GW alarmists called to our attention a few years ago are problematic:
i. Ice caps melting (well, that ain’t happening)
ii. Global temperatures rising out of control (nope)
iii. Water levels rising and swamping cities (hasn’t happened even to the ones we wouldn’t miss)
iv. Winter season shortening (I’m unsure as to this…might be worth re-calculating…but for what its worth, this past winter still seems to be hanging on)
Now that their observables are failing them, they are switching to non-observables or difficult-to-observe observables such as:
i. ice depth
ii. this idea that everything is “on pause” and that in a few years down the line, boy are we ever gonna get it!
This is certainly NOT good science. Those that are practicing it should be ashamed of themselves.

Bill Illis

The lowest Arctic summer melt season in the satellite record back to 1972 was actually 1996 (even though many don’t know that – everyone thinks it was 1979 or earlier etc.)
The current trends that 2009 are on are very similar to 1996 in that there was a very low start-off melt at this time of the year in 1996 and the ocean influences in the north Atlantic were similar.
The 2009 Arctic season to date is actually about 300,000 km^2 higher than 1996 so if the same melt conditions continue as in 1996 and the ocean influences stay the same, we could be looking at an extraordinary year (in terms of the silencing the pro-AGW arctic-free-of-ice crowd).

Mike Bryant

Bill Illis,
You may not realize this, But there are already fourteen studies ready to be published explaining why that would be exactly what was expected. They will be released when the melt is much lower than expected.
Don’t worry the studies have already been paid for.
Mike

Steven Hill

From what I read, the arctic is melting more and faster all the time. If it weren’t for too much ice, it would be ice free in 2009. Yes, that’s right, too much ice is there for it to be ice free, even though it’s melting more and more and faster and faster. Scratching head, hum, I think my 8 year old son can figure this one out. More ice is freezing than melting during the past 2 seasons, possibly?
There are no black spots on the sun today
It’s the same as yesterday

Bill Illis

Correction,
I also meant to say really nice article Steven.

Claude Harvey

Surely everyone realizes that once the operative description was changed from “Man-made Global Warming” to “Man-made Climate Change”, ANY change will be attributable to man. I, for one, feel myself downright omnipotent now that I’ve realized my pitiful carbon footprint is amplified by mysterious (and unnatural) positive feedback to fry some poor schnook in Bangladesh. I fire off my weedwhacker and birds fall from the trees in Dipsylvania while heat-crazed polar bears (possibly bi-polar bears) attack a German women out for a swim in the park. According to recent scientific studies, fat people are even more powerful than I.

jae

George Orwell was a genius.

Graeme Rodaughan

Apparently the only valid target are the latest computer models, which are constantly backfitted to mask their failures to date. Is this how science is supposed to be done?
Which is the nut of the problem. A substitution of a flawed methodology (models constantly corrected post-hoc and then treated as data) for actual science – predictive theory tested against actual empirical evidence capable of independent replication.
This also goes to a post over at Jennifer Marohasys site where Bob Carter explains the reaction of local Australian Politicians to the rupture of explanations regarding AGW/Climate: REF: http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/04/on-a-tortuous-political-problem/
The Politicians respond with (to quote Bob Carter).
“1. BEWILDERMENT about being faced by two implacably opposing views from two groups of scientists who, prima facie, seem equally professionally credible, yet are each certain that their view is the right and the other’s wrong.”
The reason that they are bewildered is because of their incapacity to assess the methods employed to reach the different (Pro/Anti) AGW positions. – Because they are not aware that there is a difference of methodology in play.
BTW: The AGW Proponent “Pseudo-Science” Methodology does not provide new useful knowlege, except by accident, and is explicitly designed to hide the flaws in the models and to ensure that the fundamental assumptions (i.e. man made emissions of CO2 causes catastrophic warming) are never tested.

BarryW

Comon guys, look at how 2008 fell off a cliff about now. It’s not over till the baby ice melts.

Roger H

No! No! No! They have it all wrong, The Telegraph in England is now reporting that the increase in Ice Mass in the Antarctic is caused by the Ozone Hole! Who would of thought that the previous man-made catastrophe ( loss of all of the Earth’s Ozone ) would someday save us from the horrors of Global Warming! Shoot, all we have to do to stave off the Climate Catastrophe is produce more fluorocarbons.

Bill Jamison

The increase in Antarctic ice doesn’t count because it’s due to the ozone hole according to the British Antarctic Survey report released today. The ozone hole caused wind patterns over Antartica to shift blowing ice away from the land, allowing more ice to form.
In other words, the increase is sea ice is due to man. But don’t worry, it’ll return to normal as the ozone hole heals over the next 2 to 3 decades.

tetris

Steven Goddard:
Not only does the Norwegian data show the ice is within 1 STD: it’s based on a 1979-2007 average. NOT a 1979-2000 average.

Brute

I’ve had it.
Arguing with the Alarmist is pointless.
As the guy wrote a few spaces up………up is down, white is black in the mind of the disciples of the global warming faithful……..ice flows could be covering New York City in July and they’d still attribute it to global warming…….insisting that “the models had predicted that very phenomenon all along” or “just you wait until next year”.
All the evidence you show them will not sway their religious adherence to the “global warming”, “mankind is evil”, “we’re all gonna die” mantra as they drive off to catch a mid-winter vacation flight to the Galapagos Islands in their chauffer driven limousines while munching on their tofu laced granola bars.
It’s a fad that will die a slow death just as disco dancing, hula hoops and pet rocks, (and hopefully the Prius). I just keep forwarding the information that Goddard/Anthony and the remaining sane people provide to keep them at bay.

vg

Me the paranoid again beware of norex (and cryosphere), they did a massive change downwards last year when this began to happen. Cryosphere is not prepared to let you compare NH current ice with past NH ice either. The only one I trust at this stage is probably NCDC and DMI. BTW one wonders if it ain’t in fact way over anomaly since last year (norex) but they aint showin it LOL. This would be truly the end of AGW if it does happen hence the strong resistance to accepting this fact (NH ice “over” anomaly)

Just Want Truth...

I like the gap (sarc) between what is accepted and what is not :
Arson fires and UHI heat records in Australia–accepted–climate
record cold temps broken throughout this past winter–not accepted–weather
Arctic ice in growing trend–not accepted–ice still in ‘death spiral’
record heat in California in UHI areas–accepted–Steven Chu was right, California beyond hope
—————–
I have the popcorn ready for watching Arctic 2009 melt–fun to watch it not surpass 2008!
P.S. very interesting video Steven Goddard

Anthony…
Apparently the only valid target are the latest computer models, which are constantly backfitted to mask their failures to date. Is this how science is supposed to be done?
Nope, it’s not. Science must be done honestly. These people conceal unprocessed databases, formulas, methodologies, etc. Moreover, their counterarguments make me know that we, open scientists, are struggling against an irrefutable hypothesis, which is adjusted every time it is falsified with data taken from real nature.

There is a predictable silence coming from the AGW true believer sites concerning this: click

Mike Bryant

OK my last comment was pessimistic. Now I’m optimistically saying that it seems that more more websites like this and celebrities and commentaters are seeing the light of truth. We might pull out of this yet. We have to stop carbon taxes and cap and trade. We must summon the will to make a regime change. and I mean throw them ALL out and start over. Take the keys away and send them all home. Then stop all the retirement benefits and let them go to the county health department and the state funded agencies. Stop all the money from going out of your state and accept no funny money from the feds… It is valueless now. We need a new union based on the Constitution not world law.
See how easy it’s gonna be? 🙂

Jim Papsdorf

OT: Speaking about shooting at a rapidly moving target, this little ditty just popped up on Drudge:
“Air pollution helps plants blunt climate change: study:
Cleaning up skies choked with smog and soot would sharply curtail the capacity of plants to absorb carbon dioxide and blunt global warming, according to a study released on Wednesday.
Plant life — especially tropical forests — soak up a quarter of all the CO2 humans spew into the atmosphere, and thus plays a critical role in keeping climate change in check.
Through photosynthesis, vegetation transforms sunlight, CO2 and water into sugar nutrients.
Common sense would suggest that air pollution in the form of microscopic particles that obstruct the Sun’s rays — a phenomenon called “global dimming” — would hamper this process, but the new study shows the opposite is true.
“Surprisingly, the effects of atmospheric pollution seem to have enhanced global plant productivity by as much as a quarter from 1960 to 1999,” said Linda Mercado, a researcher at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Britain, and the study’s lead author. ……..”
The gist of the story is that if we clean up the air we are going to have to cut CO2 levels even more !!!!! Wow, will this make Al Gore one very happy [and CO2-challenging fat] puppy. It will make Obama happy too as the number of carbon credits the government will get to sell to support his slush fund will increase well beyond what had been predicted to amount to about $800 Billion.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.3bb1cb136038ab4034b51162ec256bcc.281&show_article=1

Rebar

Will “multi-year ice” become the new ‘old growth forest’?
How long will it be until the some unique and critical to the ecosystem aspect of multi-year ice is claimed? Maybe polar bears need it to breed, or seals need it to bear young. Some important aspect wil be discovered to help perpetuate the crisis.

geo

Personally, I very much look forward to the day –perhaps not too distant– when AGWers are arguing that the current extent is within one standard deviation ABOVE the long-term trend, so it doesn’t really make a difference.

Bill Illis

The Antarctic sea ice paper about the Ozone Hole causing the increase in sea ice in Antarctica is faulty on its face since the timelines do not match up.
The Ozone Hole forms from September to December (the end of the winter season in the southern hemisphere) and the increase in the Antarctic sea ice extent has exclusively ocurred in the February to May period.
There has been no real increase in the Ozone Hole period – it is flat.
The authors say that the Ozone Hole creates increased polar vortex winds which creates increased freezing potential of the ocean (six months later apparently).
The study ends with “or it could be a natural increase in the sea ice extent”, which is a consistent practise I am starting to see.
The researchers themselves want to present their data and start to get things turned around but they still need to attach a “global warming” “human-influence” spin to their study to get it published and stay on the good side of the enviro-nazis. They can always go back later and say “hey we said the ice extent was increasing and we noted it could be a natural increase so we were being objective enough.”

geo

Btw, on a warming planet, *of course* northern ice will be lower than southern ice. Heat rises!
And if someone takes that seriously I may cry. 😉

RobKral

The video is interesting, but at the risk of quibbling I would point out that you can take a supersaturated (but still clear) solution of something, whack it, and initiate massive precipitation. If I had to swear to it in court, I could not say that this is freezing and not precipitation.
About the rest of the comments (sea ice), I’m in agreement that this is causing problems for the Gorenites.

Robert Bateman

Pamela: Excellent logical presumption.
If Global Warming causes 7 days of snow in the Wallowa Mts, then more Global Warming will regenerate the glaciers & polar caps. It will also lower the oceans, as where else will that ice come from but ocean water?
AGW seeks to fall on it’s Sword of Stupid.

Mike Bryant

So funny that CT doesn’t support the Comparison Product any longer. Also so very far behind on the seasonal graphs that are fatally flawed. Their website is so shabby and falling apart like the AGW hypothesis itself…
(I accidentally made this same comment on the Solar Minimum post, Sorry)

KeithH

“A new NASA-funded study finds that predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic’s Southern Ocean.”
OK, this is feasible, but it does nothing to explain why Antarctic ice extent has increased. I love how they purposely mix up volume with extent to try to explain away the increased extent of ice — which can only be caused by colder temperatures.

kim

Go Baby Ice, Go!
==========

OT, but not so much. It involves the Arctic ice. I sent a note to ABC World News Tonight protesting their BIG Earth Day story with not less than 3 prime reporters showing a sad “stranded” polar bear, the clouds of gas from factories, the coral reefs bleaching, the frogs disappearing and the sad and starving people of Earth with no water (drinking dirt). I was disappointed Charles Gibson didn’t limit the topic or show anything about the opposing view with doubt of AGW/HGW. The NOAA lady really tweaked me. She got her 30 seconds of fame to tell me the human race will perish.
So, on this Earthday…with Arctic Ice is nearly hitting the 1979-2000 “holy gail” mean…and with global ice above that same average. I hope Charles Osgood, the Catlin grandstanders, Hansen, Gore and the IPCC go out with the tar and feathers they deserve. ABC News: Bad reporting.

Benjamin P.

Love those short term trends.

Benjamin P.

“Heat rises!”
Warm things rise! 😛

I meant “holy Grail” Please correct my comment typo

Ron de Haan

Mike Bryant (19:35:22) :
OK my last comment was pessimistic. Now I’m optimistically saying that it seems that more more websites like this and celebrities and commentaters are seeing the light of truth. We might pull out of this yet. We have to stop carbon taxes and cap and trade. We must summon the will to make a regime change. and I mean throw them ALL out and start over. Take the keys away and send them all home. Then stop all the retirement benefits and let them go to the county health department and the state funded agencies. Stop all the money from going out of your state and accept no funny money from the feds… It is valueless now. We need a new union based on the Constitution not world law.
See how easy it’s gonna be? 🙂
Mike,
It will be like fighting the Mafia on steroids.
The mortality rates are high for those who did.
Only this time the Mafia controls Law Enforcement Agencies, the Military, Home Land Security and the Secret Services.
If you take too much time you also have to deal with the promised Civil Army, EPA and all the dope dealers in the USA.
Ans this is only the first half of the story because the the representative power you want to send out covers for the real power. These are the guys who are working to create a Global Empire.
Many of their big corporates have their own security staff and their numbers and fire power exceeds that of the US Army.
If you read USA, read Corporatism!
Read John Perkins book “Economic Hit Man on Democracy” to know what you are up against and know that this book is written five years ago.
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/john_perkins_former_economic_hit_man
Also know there is No refuge outside the USA
They are everywhere!
So, start organizing the “good people” who cherish freedom and truth.

Mike Bryant

The mutable object of AGW will be deconstructed by the irresistible force of truth.

AnonyMoose

Well, we do have to see whether all the cold being swept further south is reducing the amount of Arctic cold, or if there’s still plenty of cold to go around.

Leon Brozyna

“A new NASA-funded study finds that predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic’s Southern Ocean.”
What the heck has this purported increase in precipitation have to do with sea ice? I can see how an increase in precipitation would add to glacial ice, but sea ice? If this is true then the same should happen in the arctic with the increase in open water, resulting in more snow which should then result in more and thicker sea ice.
Interesting methodology in play here.
Public figures engage in spin; accountants cook the books. What are scientists doing who try to make the data fit the fantasy?

vg

Re previous warning about changing goalposts
see DMI here current
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
see AMSR here current
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
notice anything?

Michael Hauber

I note that last year the ice extent went from just within the normal range down to below the 2007 line within the space of about 2 weeks.

That stuff aT Drudge sound like a recycled version of that dumb-ass terraforming idea from a few weeks back–yeah lets fire some high albedo crap into the upper atmosphere. Zinc Oxide!!! Damn those Aussie surfers knew it all along.

Steve Keohane

Another nice piece, Steven. Love the video. If I recollect correctly, Jules Verne used that effect in a story where a party had to cross a body of water which one of their members realised it was below freezing and disturbed the surface, causing it to freeze immediately, allowing for passage.
I can’t put my finger on the actual report, but I remember that GWing was supposed to turn the world into a desert, not increase precipitation.
Regarding ozone I do have this archived, and unless it has been disproven, the ‘hole’ isn’t largely anthropogenic. Also, isn’t the creation of ozone due to the sun, I know old sol doesn’t effect climate (sarc), but its lack of energy must not be contributing to ‘normal’ ozone creation.
“Journal of Physical Chemistry, 2007, DOI: 10.1021/jp067660w
Ozone chemistry confounds everyone By Chris Lee | Published: October 01, 2007 – 08:59AM CT
In fact, a team of scientists from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory have put together a rather complicated experiment, one that allowed them to isolate the Cl2O2 molecule in a form that was much more pure than what had been previously obtained. They did this through a combination of laser induced reactions, cooling, and trapping. Having obtained a much more pure form, the researchers were able to use UV lasers to cleave the chlorine molecule and measure the rate of the subsequent reactions. To their shock, they found that the reaction rate was not just at the lower end of the published results, but about an order of magnitude slower than the average of previously reported values. Firstly, using the new reaction rate, scientists can no longer account for 60 percent of the observed ozone depletion.”

Gordon Ford

Same old-same old
“A new NASA-funded study finds that predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic’s Southern Ocean.”
Back in the 60’s we had a theory.
1-Global Warming
2-More open water
3-More evaporation
4-More cloud
5-More Snow
6-Growing ice caps
It has been rediscovered
Which brings back memoies of a song, possibly written by or inspired by Robert Service, called”Till the ice worm nests again”.
In the land of the pale blue snow,
Where it’s ninety-nine below,
And the polar bears are roaming o’er the plain,
In the shadow of the Pole
I will clasp her to my soul,
We’ll be happy when the ice worms nest again.
PS there are two types of ice worms.
Those that live in glaciers, and those that are a strand of overcooked spagetti in a glass of gin or vodka.
The latter are more palatable.
It’s been a long day for a dangerous global warming/climate change skeptic.