Leaving The Ice Pack Behind
Guest post by Steven Goddard
2009 Arctic ice extent has jumped into a big lead over the previous four years. Danish Meteorological Institute Ice Cover April 21, 2009
NSIDC shows Arctic extent continuing to close on the 1979-2000 mean
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
AMSR-E data shows Arctic extent extending it’s lead at a seven year high :
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Global sea ice continues to move up towards a twenty year high.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/images/iphone.anomaly.global.png
Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary (and Nobel Prize winner) Dr. Steven Chu warns of impending California flooding due to polar ice melt:
PORT-OF-SPAIN, Trinidad and Tobago — Caribbean nations face “very, very scary” rises in sea level and intensifying hurricanes, and Florida, Louisiana and even northern California could be overrun with rising water levels due to global warming triggered by carbon-based greenhouse gases, Energy Secretary Steven Chu said Saturday.
In order to highlight the “very, very scary” danger California faces, I created some frightening visualizations of what California may look like once flooded with water from Arctic ice, which – as we are told by top government officials – is melting at a record pace. If you are squeamish, look no further – this is indeed scary stuff.
Here is what the Santa Ana UHI Station may look like after being flooded :
And most frightening is what might happen to Mt. Whitney after the next Biblical flood:
If these pictures don’t scare you into buying a hybrid (or even better an aquatic car) I don’t know what will.
Notice the 2008 purple line converges at the end there? Many AGW people highlighted that, even getting a special post from Chris Colose on his blog. Wonder if there’ll be any updates.
The ice will continue its recovery for a while; the difference in the sea of Okhotsk will diminish steadily as both the current and old areas disappear.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent_hires.png
Thus, in a couple of weeks, y’all should get really excited. But don’t pop the corks just yet.
All that first and second year ice melts pretty quick in July and August. We won’t know until September what the minimum for the year will be. We should get significant recovery in that most important statistic, but don’t expect it to be as spectacular as the current figures.
And don’t expect Dr. Meier to suddenly change his perspective every week as another 7 days of data pours in. He knows how much weight he carries and if he jumps ship, the SS AGW goes down like the Titanic. He sure as hell doesn’t want to jump back and forth. Expect him to act like the professional he is.
tetris,
It is important to recognize that the long term average you’re quoting was measured with a different satellite and set of instruments. They haven’t been cross calibrated, and the AMSR-E is regarded as having both a higher accuracy and precision. But it isn’t the number that would be quoted – precisely because it doesn’t have the long-term history.
Alan,
NSIDC published an article earlier this year showing how close their satellite data is to AMSR-E data.
I notice the cryosphere today side by side tool no longer works.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh
I’m pretty sure that are ole pal Al is already on a war path from hell to houston. He’s gonna force them to alter the graphs. So don’t be surprised that if just as it’s about to hit the average line it takes a mysterious deep dive.
and can someone tell me what kind of credentials Mr. Chu has to back up his position as energy secretary?
His AGW ramblings, hatred of Big Oil and his pie-in-the-sky views on experimental alternate energy are his qualifications.
You see Phil.? How about that?
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Phil.
Care to tell us again how the melt rate is not lower than previous years and how we’re not actually approaching 79-00 average ice level.
Figures don’t lie, but liars sure can figure….
Hurricanes……?
The US monitoring centre in Florida reported late last year that there had been a downturn in the number of hurricanes.
What a strange world we live in.
This morning BBC txt service carried a story about a meeting of astronomers and their concern at the state of the sun and lack of heat.
I turned off txt and upped the volume expecting to see all the “little greenies” in bits as their world falls apart.
Not a mention!
Normal service.
I am not sure why you people are fighting this, CO2 is destroying the planet, the great one, Obama has told you so. Obama is loved by everyone around the planet and they look to him for leadership. Coal Electric plants will be shut down or pay huge taxes. Cars will get 50 mph or you will be taxed. Get ready to pay, the great one has spoken. Oil, Coal and anything that releases CO2 is evil! Hum, mankind is evil? Yes, if you don’t follow the great one, Obama, your evil!
PS, there are those in the other party that feel the same.
Bottom line is power, you need a crisis to gain more power. Man made global warming is a part of the crisis equation.
Obama thinks the ice is melting….don’t question it
John H.-55 (09:29:37) said:
If by “no longer works” you mean the drop-outs, then I guess so.
Just hand edit the URL. They never fixed the form. Pretty bad form really.
There appears to be an inverse relationship between good science and hyperbole. The latter also seems to supplant reality when actual data does not support the premise or the agenda. With ice extents rising, snow fields accumulating solid water to feed glaciers, and temperatures trending lower, the esteemed scientist resorts to emphatic technical statements like, “very, very scary.”
Also, didn’t the hurricane aspect go away with 30 year lows in cyclonic energy?
With all due respect, I believe Dr. Chu really, really doesn’t understand the topic.
If this doesn’t hit the news, then you know the fix is in.
Adam from Kansas (09:10:59) : “Well this is a real problem for the IPCC, something will have to be adjusted so people will believe they cause global warming, maybe they will send bombers to blow up the ice?”
That would be a lot of work. They’d have to drill a long series of holes across the ice in more or less a straight line, right where it’s thinnest, and then…uh, oh.
The ROOS area data seems to be just inside of one STD.
http://eva.nersc.no/vhost/arctic-roos.org/doc/observations/images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
Adolfo Giurfa (08:55:27) :
You have originated the [fake AGW] problem so, we people of the world, expect from you also the solution.
[Huh, I thought it was the U.N.’s ipcc which visited this Green Plague upon us all.]
Regardless, until Pres. Obama Himself sees fit to apologize for it, I’m not lifting a finger on the World’s behalf, nor on my own behalf – and neither should you! /sarc-joke
Some gnarly moguls on that first graph. However, the Mount Whitney photo is missing a “You are here” arrow…
(Insert raspberry here)
Ack, land shark! Ok, you’ve frightened me into submission.
Malcolm:-)
I have a bad feeling about this, it could be very embarrassing – again! There was a time, long, long ago, when we Brits were very good at this kind of thing & carried out very valuable science into the bargin, alas no more!
You chaps are closest, could you have a fleet of helicopters & planes & emergency rescue teams on permanent standby? Send the bill to Catlin II et al.
How is it going down under at the other pole, is the ice melting particularly early or faster than usual – real data, not what te media report?
This is certainly all nice “so far”, but looking at previous years it’s really around the middle of June where the men start to get separated from the boys as to what the eventual yearly minimum will be, as the lines for 2005 and 2008 would suggest. Beating 2005 with a higher minimum, if not worthy of a champagne party, would at least be just cause for a beer bash.
urederra,
Actually there is a problem with Archimedes principle, namely that ice is fresh water and the sea is salt water. A study by Peter D. Noerdlinger and Kay R. Brower, in The Geophysical Journal International, 170, pp. 145-150, 2007 “The melting of floating ice raises the ocean leve”l says it does but I think there is an error. I could be wrong but here is what I think actually happens. I am not addressing grounded ice. I used 2000 numbers Arctic sea ice and got a sea ice volume of 42,500km3. I then took the total volume of sea water globally, 1,320,000,000km3. Now to be fair I used the numbers from the study. I then did the following calculations:
42500km3 Total volume of arctic sea ice
1320000000km3 Total volume of sea water
1.026 Specific Gravity Sea water
0.919 Specific Gravity Sea Ice
38067.74km3 Displacement of the sea ice
46245.92km3 Displacement of melted sea ice
8178.18km3 Additional volume above sea ice when melted
1320008178km3 Increase in Sea water volume
0.00062% Volume increase expressed as a percentage
361000000km2 Surface area of the Sea
3.656509695km Average depth
0.02265m Increase in average depth or 2.27cm
However, when we figure in the mixing of fresh water to saltwater into a homogeneous mixture, the specific gravity goes from 1.026 to 1.025999089 which is not much.
1320001172km3 expansion due to lower specific gravity
38067.72km3 volume of the ice at the new specific gravity
As you can see, the new volume of the melted ice once mixed is only 0.0338km3 greater than the displacement.
The increase in sea level is 0.00325m or 3.25mm.
What it means is that there is an initial rise until the mixing is complete and then the difference in sea level height is 3.25mm. So while all the sea ice in the Arctic could melt, the change will be slight.
At this point I think we need a new term for the AGW people: Global Cooling Deniers. They are not in line with the latest data, the data they are relying on is bad, their hypotheses are running afoul of actual trends, and they seem to keep changing the goal posts to keep their increasingly feable argument alive. That is, they are not following the scientific method.
Second, if global cooling predictions are right, and if this cooling period bears any connection to previous minima, or worse!, then we are going to need more energy sources (for heating particularly) than we did before. It is therefore imperative that we not cripple readily available energy source, such as the US coal industry at this crucial hour. If this cooling trend is really a part of a major cold spell, then we are looking at at least 11 years of colder weather patterns. But if the Dalton minimum is any indication, this period could extend to at least 2 solar cycles or 20 years, or more.
BarryW,
Don’t get too excited about the ROOS data. Last time it hit normal, they quickly corrected it.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/13/something-is-rotten-in-norway-500000-sq-km-of-sea-ice-disappears-overnight/
Co2 is actually good for people too
We are carbon-based life-forms, after all…