The farcical account of the Catlin Crew continues. You don’t even have to dig deep anymore to find as many holes in their stories as they say they are drilling. In addition to what Steve points out, our own “Charles the moderator” provided the video framegrab below, notice anything interesting? You can watch the Quicktime video showing how they do “drilling and measurement” on the Catlin website developer, Indigopapa.tv, is here .
In case you don’t see it, the answer for the clip above is at the end of the article. – Anthony
Guest post by Steven Goddard
Wednesday, 15 Apr 2009 12:39
The Catlin Arctic Survey has now released its first set of ice and snow thickness measurements, showing the floating sea ice cover it has travelled over in the early stage is predominantly new ice, with an average thickness of 1.77m. The findings were obtained by manual drilling and are currently being analysed by science partners.
Finding ‘First Year Ice’ in this part of the Ocean was not what the Ice Team had expected at this stage of a route chosen, in conjunction with science advisors, to begin in an area where there would be multi-year ice. It suggests that the older, thicker ice has either moved to a different part of the ocean or has melted. This First Year Ice will only have formed since September 2008 and, being thinner, is less likely to survive the annual summer thaw. It points to an ever-smaller summer ice covering around the North Geographic Pole this year.
We’ve noticed that the ice is older and thicker than before
The Catlin Arctic Survey has now released its first set of ice and snow thickness measurements, showing the floating sea ice cover it has travelled over in the early stage is predominantly new ice, with an average thickness of 1.77m.
At the other end of the measurement spectrum, NASA’s IceSat has made more than 1.9 billion ice measurements already this spring – with no hypothermia or frostbite.
ANSWER: The tape measure shows a red 7F marker. That’s 7 feet for our Euro and UK visitors. Now why would they measure in feet then convert to meters?:
“…with an average thickness of 1.77m” source: April 15 Catlin blog
when you can easily buy metric tape measures with calibration certificates in Great Britain?
I could be wrong, but I watched the video several times to see if I could see evidence of perhaps printing in English units one side and Metric on the other, I did not see any and I did several frame grabs. It looks to me as if one side is blank and the other printed only in Feet and Inches. It appears to me that the tape is translucent white, perhaps a cloth or vinyl tape which would be lighter than a steel one since they have gear carrying considerations to make.
Readers feel free to double check my observation and report in comments. – Anthony
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I think the rest of us would love to see ALL of their so called data? (Timbo)
That’s why they’re being sent away to be ‘analysed’. Those depth measurements are so tricky to present just right…
you have to have petrol in gallons
Not any more, we don’t! Still measure distances in miles though, so the easiest thing to do is convert the litres to gallons, then at least you can choose which sort of gallon…
WRT engine sizes, I think that’s a legacy of early development by the French (de Dion Bouton and Panhard et Levassor) and Germans (Benz and Daimler). I think we (Brits) are quite easy with units that work, so we keep litres for engine size, but the Imperial ones were developed over centuries to suit the things they were used to measure, hence the non-linear relationships between them. Now we have calculators and computers, that isn’t really a problem…
I have two sets of weights for my kitchen scales (the balance type) so that I can follow both metric and imperial recipes. But US recipes in cups still defeat me!
From the Catlin article reference listed above: “It suggests that the older, thicker ice has either moved to a different part of the ocean or has melted.” How did this older, thicker ice melt in the middle of winter? Is this a deliberate attempt to mislead?
Also, I had noticed a while back on Catlin’s site that the route was being described as “scientifically relevant transect.” I wondered then what made the route “scientifically relevant,” as it seemed like they were bypassing the thickest, multi-year ice. (Then, I suppose that is precisely what makes the route relevant… to their own ends.)
Check out this 40 second video on youtube and you will not feel so depressed about the ‘disappearing’ Arctic ice:
Alex, based upon this reference, http://books.google.com/books?id=J2wzX6eTdOkC&pg=PA183&lpg=PA183&dq=drift+rate+of+beaufort+gyre&source=bl&ots=_yrlWjUb8j&sig=kWFiHabsC5EI6wciRsHOkU2vWcg&hl=en&ei=1vHoSd-pCoXlnQfyt8mEBw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6#PPA183,M1 , the standard drift rate of the Gyre is between 1 and 3 centimeters per second. Assuming the higher rate since they are on the Northern edge of the Gyre (an assumption of thinner ice that is easy to move and the greatest rate of speed being associated with the furthest radius) that translates to a rate of 108 meters per hour, or around 2.6 kilometers per day. For the 31 days from initial drop date, that would give us approximately 80 kilometers drifted, which is about half of the distance from their planned start point and roughly their current position. We do not know however if there was any lateral drift by the team in their hiking to get around leads and other obstacles.
Even so, if they changed their start point, they have yet to make any changes on their website to reflect this. That would have been one of my first announcements so that anyone sent to help them would not be looking for them nearly 100 mile away.
As for changing the date on the live from the ice page, Alex, all you have to do is you the drop arrow next to the date on the right hand side of the page at the top. It will list the dates they have available to see distance traveled and position. The earliest position listed here that would put them on the ice is from March 31, and says they were at 83.02.25N, 129.46.29W. They had traveled 150.01 kilometers at that point. They are currently at 84.27.58N, 127.50.31W, having traveled 158 km in the intervening 18 days. As you can see by this, they are drifting East, by almost 38 kilometers in that period.
Bill said:
Speaking only about the picture shown in this post, there are no three torches lighting the drill –not even one!. The tape shadow on the right is too diffuse to be produced by even one torch. Had it been 3 torches lighting the scene there would be 3 shadows with neat borders. Diffuse shadow are typical from far away light sources, as the sun. Quite near sources produce shadows with neat and distinct edges. Those who have worked for years in photography and illumination know this fact very well.
Actually, there is not the slightest chance for the ice being less that 2008 or even 2003. Right now the trend is leveled from previous weeks (just after Redoubt’s eruption), and has just surpassed 2008 and 2003 ice extension. All those ash clouds are doing their job keeping sun rays from reaching full force the ice.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
bill (05:27:34)
Watts Up With That?
Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts.
There are many threads on WUWT that deal with science. Perhaps you are just annoyed with the tone of this one.
The Catlin expedition is like some appalling soap opera your girl friend/wife forces you to watch. While they are enthralled with every twist and turn of the poorly acted plot, you feel compelled to comment on every inconsistency and absurdity of it’s script writers attempt to introduce a thin veneer of reality.
Initially this may lead to conflict, but with any luck you will never be have to endure such unmitigated crap again.
Carbone (03:34:01) :
Ozzie John:
The whole clip is filmed at night. The lighting is probably artificial.
Thanks Carbone
I must confess that I was unable to download and watch the clip, but currently there is no night where they located. The sun angle would move from 9 degrees down to 4 degrees !
It must be film from a few weeks back – if it’s genuine.
Hmmmm….if these people were in high finance, I would think they had been working with Bernie Madoff.
Rethinking it, this is the thinner ice they got, that´s what they were looking for along all these days. If this is true they have fulfilled the best they could what they were supposed to do and will be back very soon.
LOL, 184 Comments and no one points out that there is a dog shown in the lower left , when they start the drilling scene (Does the team include a dog?). On the right side there is what appears to be a hand held light that moves in and out of the frame (hand held – by whom? Not by any of the three people in the scene.) Also a little later an additional person, with a head light, is shown walking, in the distant background, from right to left in the lower right side of the scene.
Reply: Please see post jeez (01:56:03) ~ charles the moderator aka jeez
@Bill (05:27:34) :
I wrote: (H.R. (04:39:46) 🙂
“Oh, and while we’re on the topic of their measures, I would think they’d do a little something akin to gage R & R. I’d love to see the data that would be produced by each of the three team members measuring the same hole several times each.”
And you replied:
“Perhaps the measurement is averaged over a number of holes? A single hole will measure the depth of ice at that point. 2mm away it could be different – a “gage R&R” would prove little, nor would it give a better idea of the depth in a particular area. If the Radar had worked then perhaps a profile of the underside of the ice could be drawn. Failures unfortunately occur.”
A single hole gives a single result. I would just like to know what the measurement error might be for the drilled holes. To do that, one has a person make several measurements of the same thing to determine intra-operator measurement variability. Then the exercise is repeated to determine inter-operator measurement variability. Basic stuff, eh?
For scientific research, it would be good to know if a measured ice thickness is 1.77m, 1.77m +/- .03m, 1.7m +/- 0.3m, or… what? Aren’t you curious to know that, bill, or is it unimportant?
errata:
“Then the exercise is repeated to determine inter-operator measurement variability.”
It should read; Then the exercise is repeated with other persons making measurements of that same thing to determine inter-operator measurement variability.
Sorry. Brain moving impatiently forward while fingers struggle to catch up.
Elizabeth,
It is apparent from the video you posted:
That there must be extensions for the drill bit, probably about 3′ long each to enable the operation of it. After they lay it down it will be broken back down into the components, motor, drill bit and 2 or 3 extensions.
Thanks for the video,
Mike
We do a good bit of ice fishing here, and I will tell you from personal experience that drilling a ten inch hole in the ice is a serious workout just going down the 1-3 feet of ice that we have here. Any remotely serious ice fisherman has a 3-3.5 hp 2 stroke ice auger. I have serviced the augers and blades professionally, and have drilled hundreds of holes both fishing and testing them. Even that is a workout.
Note that in the Utube video that Elizibeth posted, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y-k-cX7rTE, that there are two guys holding onto this auger that drills through 10 feet of ice. I have a powerhead like that for my drill rig, and it is 6.5hp and ideally has two guys hanging onto it.
My point here is that drilling all of those holes every day for months will be a very serious workout. These guys will look like Lou Ferigno ( The original Hulk..) after a couple of months of 10+ holes a day. Seriously.
Personally I’m with the guy that would hop a helicopter ( or maybe an Otter), except that I’d have to rig it up with a series of robotic arms, one with a sonar, one with a core drill, one with a grapple to load the cores into a basket. For my 3.4 million, I’m thinkin’ sit in the heated helicopter and pull levers. Heck for an extra 500k, you could even bring back the cores so that the anecdata* is actually verifiable.
Maybe that isn’t feasable, it is not my area. It sure seems like there are easier and faster ways to get the job done. Being random and unreproducible (Anecdata) the science element is a washout with Caitlin. At that point, they are holding out for a dramatic rescue, cameras rolling and PR spinners in high gear. It would be rich if the ice broke up about a month late this year..
*Hat tip to Jeez/CTM
Scientists use the metric SI system of measurement. It is totally un-scientific to measure anything in imperial units as the conversion to metric automatically incurs an error factor.
Only three countries do not use the SI system as their sole or primary method of measurement: Liberia, Myanmar and the United States (What august company you Yanks keep!).
I would say, the very fact that an imperial measure is shown in the video is indicative of the possibility that the video is not even of the Catlin expeditioners measuring the ice thickness. I say this because, as English, they would almost certainly use a “proper” tape measure that is graded in SI units.
conversion to metric automatically incurs an error factor
I thought one inch was exactly 25.4mm?
I agree that it’s important for scientists to sing from the same hymn sheet, as not doing so can impede space exploration, among other things, but for the rest of us, I don’t see why we can’t be allowed to use what we like. I measure rooms, timber, carpet etc in feet and inches, buy my food and drink in pounds and pints (funny how metrication in the UK has largely resulted in Imperial equivalents, so we have dry goods in packs of 227g and 454g, and milk in 0.568l containers or multiples thereof) because they were devised to be useful. There would be an uprising here if draught beer ever appeared in litres!
jeez (11:26:49) :
Ok. There is a misconception here. The drilling and measurement video was not posted for public consumption. I found it poking around the web developer’s site.
Thanks for that admission.
NightVision.mov
videoFrameRate=”25.000000″
CreateDate=”2009-01-22T19:54:16
videoFrameSize
stDim:w=”720″
stDim:h=”576″
No meaningful title
Daytime walk
xmp:CreateDate=”2009-01-22T19:43:52.
Night walk
xmp:CreateDate=”2009-01-22T19:49:11
All are 25fps = UK frame rate
All are certainly not meant for general consumption
Creation date is probably the output date not the recording date
If they are still available the 3 other files are worth a look just to see the effort required to haul a 100kg sled over pressure ridges.
The strengh mental and physical of these not too young people is to be admired.
After drilling all those holes in a straight line through such thin ice (?), the likelyhood is that these intrepid explorers will, perhaps in several weeks, re-appear on an ice floe off Montauk Point, Long Island. Speaking from just a little experience in things North Atlantic…..
You just know this is all a fraud, because it’s being given so much airtime on the BBC – who are the kings of global warming lies…..
When I read Hadow’s statement on the depth of the ice, my head almost exploded. Now, I realize that it was designed to distract we doubters and cause us to expend enormous energy putting him in his place. But no, the leader of the Second Annual Arctic Cockup might just be stupid enough to believe what he said, or bright enough to say what he has been instructed to say. I’m writing Henry “Meerkat” Waxman to get the facts on all that tundra getting out from under that ice.
The movie files are DV PAL format. I think what’s on the site is raw unedited video shot in February. Feb 4th at 5:36AM for the frame being discussed here. The Night Walk video was shot on Feb 3rd at 10:45 or so. This info is part of the meta data in the files. Just a bit more info to confirm these are not from the actual expedition.
If the movies were shot at Resolute or any further north, it is dark with some twilight appearing. The sun does not rise in Resolute from about Nov 6 to Feb 6 (3 months).
Today’s best quote from the Catlin crew – 4/18/09 – Temp @ur momisugly -25C
“Crossing open water is now par for the course with polar travel. As spring progresses, , meaning the frequency and size of leads increases. The emergence of open water at this stage of the survey is typical for this time of year and will become almost a daily occurrence towards the end of the expedition. So, today was a practice run for the days ahead…. ”
They truly are advancing science – now finding ice that melts at -25c
For a mission that was five years in the planning, they need to give a check on their math and geography skills. Originally, as I recall, the idea was to travel 1,000 km in 100 days; nice catchy appeal to round numbers. According to today’s report on the Catlin web site, after 49 days on the ice, they are 575.6 km from the pole. If that’s true then they are wildly successful beyond their wildest dreams, for their power is such that the pole is moving to meet them!!
Consider.
Above 75° latitude, each degree of latitude roughly represents 111.6 km.
According to the Catlin blog, on the day the team hit the ice, their start point was at 81.4°N, or approximately 8.6° latitude from the pole. So the team started with a distance to travel of approximately 960 km (8.6 * 111.6 = 959.76).
After 49 days on the ice, their position is now given as being 84.3°N, or approximately 5.7° latitude from the pole. This then gives them an approximate remaining distance to the pole of 636 km (5.7 * 111.6 = 636.12).
Today’s update on the Catlin site shows distance traveled as 316.69 km and distance to pole as 575.6 km. Combined, this gives us a total distance of 892.29 km — a bit shorter than the original figure of 960 km.
Now, using my figures, if they’ve traveled 317 km and distance to pole is 636 km, that makes the total trek at 953 km. Pretty close to the original figure of 960 km.
Something tells me the pole, in reality, isn’t moving to meet the team. It must only be happening in the vivid imaginations at the Ops Center. Creativity with math seems to be a strong suit with True Believers.