Bzzt! Welcome to the dark ages

Guest post by Steven Goddard

The Effects of One Nuclear Bomb at High Altitude

From Wikipedia

Yesterday’s missile launch from nuclear power North Korea raised particular concern in the military, due to the possibility of EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) attack.  Almost every piece of technology in our lives is dependent on semiconductors, which contain circuitry that is extremely vulnerable to electromagnetic pulses.  From the Federation of American Scientists:

The pulse can easily span continent-sized areas, and this radiation can affect systems on land, sea, and air. The first recorded EMP incident accompanied a high-altitude nuclear test over the South Pacific and resulted in power system failures as far away as Hawaii. A large device detonated at 400-500 km over Kansas would affect all of CONUS. The signal from such an event extends to the visual horizon as seen from the burst point.

During the Cold War, the US military was very concerned about the fact that US planes used solid state circuitry and Soviet planes used vacuum tubes.  It was known that nuclear war would likely cause American planes to drop out of the sky.  Since then, we all have become completely reliant on semiconductor technology which controls our transportation, power, satellites, information technology and communication systems.  Transistors have evolved over time to smaller and smaller geometries and lower voltages, which make them increasingly vulnerable to EMP.

http://unic.ece.cornell.edu/images/chip.jpg
What an integrated circuit looks like after being fried by overvoltage

The US and Russia conducted many nuclear detonations at high altitude prior to 1962, but the integrated circuit had not yet been invented.  Some experts believe that an effective EMP attack would send the US and/or Europe instantly back to the dark ages.  Civilian planes could lose control and fall from the sky, and cars made since 1980 might instantly and permanently lose steering, engine and brake control.  Many phones, computers and Internet switches would become permanently disabled.  Newt Gingrich spoke about the danger on Fox News this morning.

Gingrich replied: “There are three or four techniques that could have been used, from unconventional forces to standoff capabilities, to say: ‘We’re not going to tolerate a North Korean missile launch, period.’ … look at electromagnetic pulse, which changes every … equation about how risky these weapons are.”

More from Wikipedia

Ever wonder why (“Axis of Evil”) North Korea and Iran have been rushing to develop nuclear weapons and missile delivery capabilities?  It has nothing to do with stopping global warming or making friends with Washington and Whitehall.  Some references below.  I recommend that everyone read them before they go to the voting booth next time.  It is important to have leaders who can do more than talk, because we have bigger and tougher enemies than people who use incandescent light bulbs, and bankers who take holidays in Las Vegas.

ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE THREATS TO U.S. MILITARY AND CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE

http://superconductors.org/emp-bomb.htm

http://www.unitedstatesaction.com/emp-terror.htm

http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/future-weapons-emp-bomb.html

http://www.electronics-related.com/usenet/design/show/98485-1.php

http://www.janes.com/articles/Janes-Strategic-Weapon-Systems/EMP-Bomb-Australia.html

http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/security/has197010.000/has197010_1.htm

http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/mctl98-2/p2sec06.pdf

http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/emp/toc.htm

http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/defense/1281421.html

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Steven Goddard
April 5, 2009 10:58 pm

Pat,
A Land Rover is a large vehicle, but you didn’t provide any data about it other than a mention that the PAS theoretically reduces at speed. (Don’t) try turning it off completely on the freeway.
Mike,
BBC NEWS | England | London | Airliner crash-lands at Heathrow
17 Jan 2008 … A BA passenger jet from China crash-lands short of a Heathrow runway after reportedly losing power.

Murgatroyd
April 5, 2009 11:03 pm

Meanwhile, if I had to I could convert my vehicles to low-tech ignition with just a few hours of soldering and some simple components… unless someone wants to try to convince me that my soldering iron and disconnected components would be destroyed by EMP also.
Does your soldering iron run on butane? Or do you have a generator in your garage, shielded and waiting for the balloon to go up? Because if the EMP kills anything, it’ll kill the power grid. Could take a loooong time for that soldering iron to heat up.

crosspatch
April 5, 2009 11:12 pm

I don’t believe there is anything we are going to be able to do to EMP-proof our infrastructure. The thing that is most important about this line of thought, though, is to bring out how fragile our infrastructure really is and EMP from an aggressive act or even from a huge solar flare could cause us a great calamity.
Just the number of people stuck in elevators in buildings that have them computer controlled would be staggering. We can’t go around putting little tin foil hats on all of our electronics gear. And I have had problems with “alpha particle induced soft errors” in chips with ceramic packages. If the pulse doesn’t fry the electronics, it is has the potential to randomly change the state of many things such as the contents of memory locations, registers internal to processors, the state of logic devices, etc. There is no telling what the equipment is going to do because there are going to be things changing state at more or less random. Even if your computer isn’t killed, it is probably going to have its memory scrambled. Plan on the Internet being gone for a while too.
And … I promise it will happen some day. That there was a huge solar flare in the 1800’s says such events are probably fairly common over geological time. We have no idea how common they are. Attempting to design to survive it is probably futile or cost prohibitive but maybe what we CAN do is design so that the systems fail in some kind of predictable manner. Of course, that is hard to do for a computer whose memory gets changed at random.

Jerry
April 5, 2009 11:21 pm

Steven Goddard (21:52:34) :
US leadership still addled, but possibly showing some rudimentary signs of brain function. Perhaps the North Korean missile was an enlightening event.
Mmmm. But given the prevalence of propaganda (Whoops, sorry, if it comes from your side it’s “information” isn’t it?) the question is, how do we know that NK even launched a rocket? It would certainly suit the US MIC (Military Industrial Complex) to use such “information” to press the case for more research and development of ABM systems (which will almost certainly never work). What independent (of the US) evidence of a launch is there?
The legal side is also interesting. A high level burst over Kansas is quite obviously a violation of American airspace (as American lawyers are entirely capable of extending “airspace” to cover regions where there isn’t in fact any air), but what about a burst over International waters? Since the majority of the US population and industry is near the East, West or South coasts, one or more such bursts could cripple considerable proportions of American capabilities. Maybe, just maybe, the UN could make a case against such, but again, what about a burst high over your own territory? Apart from a pretty flash there is little or no ground effect from such and if Iran wanted to put on a show for its people that surely is their affair? And if Israel objects? We do live in interesting times, don’t we.

Aron
April 5, 2009 11:28 pm

I’m not so worried about Iran and North Korea. They play their games so that they can always have feel like they some sense of self-importance. If they create trouble won’t be as bad as knocking out the US grid because the repercussions for them and the whole world would be devastating.
I’m more worried about the mental damage being done to young generations by media disinformation campaigns that spread hatred of capitalism and free markets while glorifying anarchism, communism and fascism. This is called subversion and we see it daily from the Guardian and other media outlets. Most of last week the Guardian has been attacking British police at the G20 protest and defending the scum who came out to attack them, making them out to be victims of police brutality when it was the other way around. Our environmentalist friend George Monbiot, liar extraordinaire and co-founder of a Marxist-Islamist party, led the charge.
Then take a look at the attack on free markets in the media. Government and lawmakers were responsible for sub-prime in the first place, not the free market. The result we have now is that the free market takes the blame for everything while sub-prime has gone international.
The conclusion of the G20 summit saw politicians create $1 trillion of wealth, most of which will be for developing nations which they will have to pay interest on. Some money will also be used to keep nations poor by putting them on welfare. That’s what regulation is all about – imperialism. True free markets allow nations to be equal players on the world stage but the elites don’t want that and neither do the Leftist journalists who are brainwashing our X-Box playing youth into accepting greater government control of their lives. The media feels it is untouchable from criticism. It has become drunk on its power to influence opinion, suppress information and manipulate the masses.
There is the real threat that would destroy our freedoms from within. So the question is, what is the bigger threat? Living under an eco-communist nightmare created by our own people or an EMP weapon that might never be launched because the attacking nation wouldn’t benefit from doing so?

Al
April 5, 2009 11:42 pm

I think a ballistic missile strike by Iran or N.Korea is a very, very distant possibility.
Far more likely is an “accidental” failure of a N. Korean or Iranian nuclear powered satellite directly over the continental US, giving some degree of plausible deniability.

pft
April 5, 2009 11:50 pm

NASA’s THEMIS spacecraft recently discovered a hole in earth’s magnetic field which is 10 times as large as previously thought. The magnetosphere protects earth from the plasma of solar flares, now has a hole in it four time the size of the earth. A large solar flare would knock out hundreds of key transformers that would take years to replace and living standards would plummet. Winters without electricity might be tough. Fortunately the sun is real quiet now.
Worrying about North Korea is almost a ridiculous as worrying about mans CO2 causing catastrophic global warming. These countries don’t have a suicide wish. Although the population is poor, the leaders live pretty well.
As for the terrorists, thats a possibility. But even then, those who might help provide them with such a weapon would have to consider the consequences of being even a suspect.
GK (19:48:12) : [i]”People need to understand that for the Islamic extremists – dying as a result of this battle is not only what they want, but what is REQUIRED for them to succeed.”[/i]
The Islamist leaders who rule Iran already have paradise on earth with many more virgins than the 72 you get in paradise. Religions are created for the herd so the leaders can control them. In Islam, the promise of paradise after death, while they live in a paradise on earth, is a good way to motivate people to go on suicide missions that serve their interests. Life is already good enough for the leaders, and they are in no hurry to meet Allah, so they will not send their herd on suicide missions if it would lead to their demise. Saddam getting hung may have made an impression as well.
In any event, Iran has no nuclear weapons, and North Korea makes crappy rockets apparently. Pakistan would be a more likely suspect, but the argument made applies to them as well. This is just alarmism of the AGW variety.

Spence_UK
April 6, 2009 12:03 am

Hmm, most of this reminds me of AGW scaremongering. Take a real effect (greenhouse effect / EMP) which is real, known, understood, scientific effect. Then claim all kinds of doom and gloom consequences which are not real, known, understood, scientific – yet insist there is some kind of a scientific basis for the claims.
The power steering and power brakes is a typical example. I have a modern vehicle, which has hydraulic power steering and vacuum servo assisted brakes. These both rely on the engine turning to operate. When I’m doing 75 mph and the clutch is up, the engine isn’t going to stop turning, even if all the electronics were to burn out (which I’m not particularly convinced they would). There is this huge mechanical link between the tyres, through the gearbox, to the crankshaft, which turns the pulley for the power steering, and creates a vacuum in the inlet manifold via the pistons which form an air pump. And the EMP isn’t going to melt the driveshafts. So I have both power steering and power braking. A small chunk of engine braking, too. So the answer is simple: if you need to steer and brake, and your electronics won’t run the engine, let the road run the engine for you.
SG suggests not turning the engine off at 75mph. I agree with this strongly, and people shouldn’t be tempted to try it out. Nothing to do with power steering or braking, more to do with the fact that there is a chance that you will accidentally engage the steering lock, which is a much greater hazard than the loss of power assisted steering or servo assisted brakes.

Lindsay H
April 6, 2009 12:06 am

This sounds a bit like AGW scaremongering, yes EMP will have an effect but I thing it has been grossly overstated.

Admin
April 6, 2009 12:18 am

I have no idea what this post is doing on WUWT.
This is not supposed to be a political blog.
REPLY: Jeez, please read the masthead:
“Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts”
This has two components cited in the masthead:
1) technology and 2) recent news
– Anthony

Alan the Brit
April 6, 2009 12:24 am

I never could grasp the elctro-magnetic part of physics, found it fascinating but much went over my head. Anyway I enjoyed watching “Goldeneye” & have know about EMP scince my father used to work for the UK ARWE. Daft really under the official secrets act he wasn’t allowed to tell us what he had for lunch in case the Russians got to here about it, not that they probably didn’t know anyway.
I digress. (Moderator please feel free to amend/delete if you think I may put ideas into heads etc although I frankly doubt that I am a first) What I find really frightening is not so much the odd rogue state using the technology to launch a deadly weapon, but tell me my fellow WUWTites, using the simple analysis from the altitude/radius connection, surely it would be possible to construct a small version not for national/international usage, but one used on a local scale on a 5-10 mile radius outward & upward, like airports, banks, military installations, government departments? The local disruption & chaos would be horrendous with emergency services unable to mobilise, etc. no local communications available. That I think would be more of a risk & far more frightening. We have seen the damage caused by 9/11 & 7/7 & Madrid, add in a tactical device like an EMP generator?????

chillybean
April 6, 2009 12:26 am

The EMP effects get a lot of publicity but often overlooked is the possibility of the HANE (High Altitude Nuclear Explosion) detonating appx 100km high.
“If someone were to explode a 10kT nuclear weapon at a high enough altitude over their own territory, 90% of the world’s low earth orbit [LEO] satellites would be lost within a month.”
An interesting link can be found here.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2002/nuke_explosion.htm
Now detonating a test blast over your their territory with no immediate effect would make nuking a country like Iran or Korea in retaliation appear rather drastic overkill so I think we would be back to more just more sanctions.
Immediate effect on Western Civilization, No mobiles, No Satellite Tv, Thats enough on it’s own to end civilisation as we know it for todays youth.

Alan the Brit
April 6, 2009 12:27 am

Sorry, sticky fingers again, that should have read AWRE!

Andrew P
April 6, 2009 12:45 am

Steven Goddard (21:39:14) :
<i?Popular Mechanics had a very good article about this in their September, 2001 issue – but something else happened that month which diverted everyone’s attention towards lower tech terrorism.
Steven, there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that the terrorism witnessed in Manhatten on that day was far from low tech:
http://www.bentham-open.org/pages/gen.php?file=7TOCPJ.pdf&PHPSESSID=8b41286bc0bd793e2565e1e209704423

TonyS
April 6, 2009 12:48 am

It may be an uncomfortable truth for some people in the US, but the US was the ONLY nation to use nuclear weapons (not counting tests). The US has an unbelievable arsenal of weapon systems ranging from cruise-missiles to carrier battle groups – and the US have proven that they are willing to use them to bomb other nations into the “dark ages”, as you call it, and they have done so repeatedly. The US is spending more on its military budget than combined military budgets of the rest of the world. The US has meddled in the internal affairs of every nation under the sun, unsing from hostile economic measures, assassinations and mercenaries, to its full military “might”. The US threatens every nation with nuclear annihilation that would even THINK about launching a missile in the general direction of the US.
So maybe, just maybe, all those little countries which are willing to sacrifice a substantial part of their Gross National Income to build nuclear weapons (and ICBMs) do so to build up a deterrent to prevent an US attack on their county? So maybe, just maybe, could you for one moment look at the world from the point of someone who is at the wrong end of your imperial armada? Like anybody outside of the US?
Ah, who am I kidding? Empires have never been brought down by reason! Empires need to come down crushing! So you do what you do, maybe even more. Throw more money at your military! Maybe this will bring you down even faster.

TonyS
April 6, 2009 12:53 am

Graeme Rodaughan (17:55:56) :
What happens if you have a leader who truely believes that he is on a mission from GOD to rid the world of the godless unbelievers and has sufficient control locally to ensure that his orders are obeyed without question?

Are you talking about former president GWB?

Ceolfrith
April 6, 2009 12:56 am

To Hugh
Ref your VW, how will you fill it when all the microchip controlled petrol pumps are fried?

ralf ellis
April 6, 2009 1:05 am

.
>>What happens if you have a leader who truely believes that
>>he is on a mission from GOD to rid the world of the godless
>>unbelievers
Too true. Koran quote:
”When the sacred months are over, fight and slay the unbelievers wherever you find them, beseige them and lie in wait for them in every strategem of war.” (Koran 9:5)
.

ralf ellis
April 6, 2009 1:07 am

>>Hane explosion
>>Immediate effect on Western Civilization, No mobiles, No Satellite Tv,
And no aviation either – it is all satellite navigation nowadays. I suppose VOR nav is still there as a backup, but it would be very restrictive.
.

Graeme Rodaughan
April 6, 2009 1:18 am

TonyS (00:53:48) :

Are you talking about former president GWB?

No – just any hypothetical leader with a messianic complex.

ralf ellis
April 6, 2009 1:22 am

>>and cars made since 1980 might instantly and permanently
>>lose steering, engine and brake control
>>Absolutely wrong…..
No so. There is no cable connection in my Citroen, between throttle and injectors. It is all electronic.
.

April 6, 2009 1:27 am

RE: Russ Steele (18:19:23) :
Russ – being somewhat of an expert in this area in a former (non-retired) life (20+ years, Texas Instruments), and having seen firsthand this issue, I would assert that the interference was more likely due to the light impingement on the exposed GaAs, altering the band gaps on the junctions of the integrated transistors. When the guard turned off the light – no impingement, no interference.
Been there, done that.

ralf ellis
April 6, 2009 1:29 am

.
>>When I’m doing 75 mph and the clutch is up, the engine isn’t going to
>>stop turning, even if all the electronics were to burn out.
Again not true. My fuel control system is all electronic, and when the computer has a fit (once a year) everything stops. All lights and all accelleration dies and the servo brakes seem to disappear too.
Besides, if you have a modern ”plip” key, you would never get into the car in the first place.

Mike Bryant
April 6, 2009 1:52 am

“jeez (00:18:29) :
I have no idea what this post is doing on WUWT.
This is not supposed to be a political blog.”
You’re right Jeez, this is definitely a departure.

gianmarko
April 6, 2009 2:57 am

regarding the answer to an eventual nuclear attack, i am not sure at all that the current US administration would be in a hurry to retaliate if anyone fired a nuke with the intention to make damage. they would probably write an angry letter to the UN, and start negotiations….
EMP would be a massive PITA, but i tend to believe that enough infrastructure would survive to keep things running. someone might remember the Y2K bug story and how it boiled down into nothing. a lot of computers will be fried alright, but real data centers and important networking equipment is really, really protected. and most high speed data communication is done via fiberoptic, which is itself immune to EMP. now, im not sure how the grid would react to a EMP. but if it can survive lightnings, it can probably survive EMP.