Earth Hour in California – Success or Bust?
Guest post by Russ Steele, NCWatch
At our house we set the timer to remind us to turn on all the visible out side lights. We have multiple security lights on the garage and the barn that come on when the sun goes down. My friend George Rebane has evidence that he turned on his lights for Earth Hour at Ruminations. I should have done the same, but was working on a sea level issue in R and forgot. I am glad I set the timer to remind me to turn off the outside house lights at 9:30.
The real question is did it Earth Hour make a difference one way or the other?
Roger Sowell had a good idea, he download the the graph below from www.caiso.com, the California Independent System Operator. CAISO is in charge of receiving power from power generating plants, and distributing the power throughout the state grid to the various end users.
Now compare the graph from Saturday 3/28/09 to the one on Sunday 3/29/09 shown below, note the similar slopes during the same time period. Note that annotations were added by Anthony Watts on both graphs.
Roger notes:
There was no apparent decrease in the power load throughout the state, from 8:30 to 9:30 p.m. No step changes, nothing, nada, zip, zilch.
There you have it, scientific data showing that the Earth Hour was a total bust in California. If you look close, you can see a little bump up above the forecast demand, which tracked very closely with actual power consumed prior to the witching hour 8:30 to 9:30. But, it is clear that power consumption did not drop, it stayed up. Maybe all those protesters forgot to turn off the lights.
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I’m an energy conserver because I am a mizer and my wife is a “turn off the light” screamer. I loathe having to pay for streetlights I don’t want or need. I know they are subsidized by hidden rates in the residential. The workers at the power plant will earn the same pay whether or not the grid is loaded to the gills. At least some jobs are safe.
Most night crime occurs under the glare of streetlights. Why? Because everyone else assumes somebody is watching. The robber doesn’t need a flashlight any more. The mugger hides in the shadows as the unassuming walk up to their front door with thier eyes caught in the glare of their front porch light.
We don’t need no stinking AGW Clap & Tirade All-Day-Stupid models.
We just need to quit doing stupid things and use the energy we really need in more efficient ways.
Robert Bateman:
There are unintended meanings in your description of your wife. I need to go to the hospital now and get some stitches put in my tongue.
@Mr.. Lynn,
Actually, making movies with an air polluter is allowed. But only with a permit! No hypocrisy in the government, as the movie industry must be given priority. Some pigs being more equal, and all. Movie makers can set off smoke bombs, propane explosions, fill the air with dust, run wood-burning trains, whatever the script calls for. But don’t try that with your car!
@wes, and others, to see a day in California where there WAS a dip in power demand, check out http://www.oasis.caiso.com, and select 09/03/2007 for the date. (maybe somebody can graph this?)
I found you when you were mentioned on Drudge.
Today when you were mentioned on Rush-I knew a new day had dawned.
Gongrats Anthony! You have made the big leagues. I loved you much. I will miss you. Enjoy your Stardom-We will always remember you for what you were… XXXOOO.
Good Luck-God Bless and Give ‘Em HECK!
I made sure to go around and turn off most of the lights 🙂 Too bad it wasn’t much of a success in CA.
Doesn’t California ISO measure demand by electric utilities for electricity? In which case their demand would be pretty constant unless they were told to have less transmission capacity between 8:30 and 9:30 Sat on the theory that Earth Hour was going to work (which would have been pretty bad instruction to work under–thank goodness the policy makers aren’t that stupid). Anyway, that makes the above chart somewhat irrelevant. You could freeze electricity usage throughout CA to basically 0 and not necessarily change the chart.
I took a look at some of the other Oasis information, and it suggests that end-user demand did have a small, but noticeable blip down between 8:30-9:30. In particular, Final ancillary procurement results for 3/28. Fair warning, haven’t done the maths on this data, and its a very volatile series, so it’s not a guaranteed conclusion.
http://oasis.caiso.com/
(java app–hit “ancillary” in the top tab, select “final procurement results” under the HA column, change the date to 3/28; compare to other dates at your will)
HE17 183.79
HE18 223.42
HE19 231.00
HE20 171.00
HE21 167.10
HE22 181.67
Total Self-Provided
HE17 182
HE18 183
HE19 183
HE20 183
HE21 183
HE22 183
Total MW
HE17 365.79
HE18 406.42
HE19 414.00
HE20 354.00
HE21 350.10
HE22 364.47
HE20-21 has the 8:30-9:30 span in it.
At least it’s doing something in Canada and the Phillipines. Not that it’s the actual MW impact that was the point anyway.
http://www.mississauganews.com/article/25553
http://www.bworldonline.com/BW033009/content.php?id=071
Though there’s also a lot of news agencies reporting a small sequential drop from 730-830 to 830-930pm, which the above charts make look meaningless. You definitely have to compare to similar times with similar temperatures (Chicago reported something like a 7% reduction on that metric last year).
Some of us were actively protesting the whole stupid concept of Earth Hour. I am sorry but my lightbulb use is not going to make a dent in the climate! So I deliberately kept mine on because I am not going to let some lunatic environmentalist tell me that the Earth is dying because I don’t use the brand of lightbulbs they want me to! Global warming is a global hoax and shame on anyone who continues to propagate it!
Yeah, i’ve been thinking, it’s just a moment that we celebrate the earth day..
We need to do that every time. In Indonesia, where the power is one of expensive thing, the Company of National Power make a advertisement to always keep turn off just two of useless lightbulb at home, from 19.00 to 22.00.
It goals to reduce the burden peak of using the power…
So, turn of the lightbulb at day actually not a new act on Indonesia..
Anyway, in Jakarta, five iconic city, turn off the light.
The Earth hour weeze is a clever bit of propaganda, all you have to do is enlist the managers of a few famous tourist spots – Eiffel tower, Pyramids of Giza etc to publicly join in and duly get photographed blackened out (photo shop can help here 🙂 ) and Hey presto! More publicty for said tourist attractions and a bogus claim that this represents whole cities taking part.
I was very amused by all the #earthhour tweets during Earth Hour on Twitter. All those, may I please say, sanctimonious participants congratulating each other for their observance, but using a medium that requires cellphone towers, internet servers, and electricity. Funny stuff, indeed.
I’m surprised with all the shrieking about banning black cars, nobody has bother to point out that that “issue” is just a hoax fabricated by those opposed to environmental conservation. http://www.snopes.com/politics/traffic/darkcars.asp
Secondly, the point of Earth Hour was to raise awareness and generate discussion. the fact that there was a noticeable power decrease in many areas was just a bonus. Based on the fact that even on only this one blog there are 182 comments about it, I’d say it’s was and is a raging success.
Based on the fact that even on only this one blog there are 182 comments about it, I’d say it’s was and is a raging success.
Right, dolphin. You just keep telling yourself that.
The cognitive dissonance being displayed by you people is truly impressive, and a testament to your “will to believe”. But, it seems to have reached a tipping point level.
Living in a world of make-believe only works for so long, before it all comes crashing down.
Right Bruce, your comment was so fact-filled and so carefully refuted everything thing I’ve said that I’ve completely changed my view and now think we can trash our planet and expect it to continue to support us.
Sorry, that was sarcasm. I’ve seen first hand how polluting our environment damages the life that calls it home. You simply stating that it’s all “make-believe” and expecting that I’ll take it as fact just isn’t as strong of evidence as real life experience.
Here’s the thing about putting together an argument. You have to actually refute what the other side is saying. You can’t simply declare it false and walk away. if you’ll notice in my comment I cited a specific source to refute the black car ban nonsense, and then offered anecdotal evidence to support the claim that Earth Hour was successful in it’s stated mission. Granted, 182 comments on a single blog post is hardly worldwide coverage, but I could link to any number of media outlets discussing it, if that’d make you feel better. it’s called backing your assertions with evidence. You may want to try it sometime.
I’d say it’s was and is a raging success.
Half right.
EPIC FAIL
I’ve seen first hand how polluting our environment damages the life that calls it home. Yeah, dolphin, good straw man there, seeing as how we’re all for “polluting our environment” here.
Sorry, dolphin, but you’ll have to do better than straw men arguments here.
You seem to be basing your “evidence” of success for this farce called “Earth Hour” on the number of comments on it, which is patently absurd. When you try to back your arguments by “evidence” simply of your own choosing, and which are nonsensical, you actually weaken your own argument. It’s called logic, dolphin. You might want to try it sometime.
Thank you Bruce for another comment that essentially says nothing.
Let’s try using some of the logic that you demand I use, yet refuse to use yourself. The purpose of Earth Hour was to generate discussion, therefore logically, the amount of discussion generated by Earth Hour is an appropriate (perhaps the only appropriate) measure of it’s success.
Instead of just stating that I’m illogical or nonsensical, why not try actually backing your assertions with some kind of facts? Is it truly absurd to judge success of an event on the degree of accomplishment of the event’s stated goals? I don’t think so, but since you do, perhaps you’d like to explain why and by what measure other than the stated goals success should be judged. or are you suggesting that Earth Hour in fact failed to generate any discussion or media attention? I find that assertion laughable on it’s face (and more than a bit ironic since you’re making the claim in a discussion about Earth Hour, but I’d be interested in hearing why you think that way. But that’s really the key… I’d like to know WHY you feel the way you do, not just that you do feel that way. You’ve spent alot of time talking about how I’m absurd, nonsensical, weak, illogical, cognitively dissonant, and living in a world of make-believe, but thus far you have spent any time explaining why?
I’m not out to change your opinion. I know you’ll forever think I’m an utter moron, and frankly that’s fine with me. I don’t try to reduce my impact on the environment for you. I do it because it’s what I want to do. All I’m asking is if you’re going to publicly attack me for trying to take small steps where I can to be earth conscious that you at least pretend to have a reason for it.
well, i guess “success” depends on frame of reference….
Environmentalists say Earth Hour was a great success
http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/41882/113/
I don’t see why we have to be trapped between liberal-v-conservative or green-v-anti-green. Environmental concerns can, if we take the right approach, make the economy stronger, put more dollars in pockets through efficiency savings, and help us stop funding oil barons who hate us.
The value of Earth Hour was to habituate people to energy sensitivity. The notion that it would make a difference in actual energy use was overblown, I agree.
Environmentalism is a fundamentally sound and ethical perspective, and global warming as a result of man-made carbon emissions is well established. The hollow results of Earth Hour, or of too many other symbolic gestures that don’t get at the problem, hurt more than help.
The solutions that can help environmentally, strategically, and economically are clear. A better grid will improve energy efficiency, meaning less coal burned and lower per-unit energy costs for everyone. Yeah yeah, infrastructure costs money, but so did the interstate system — anyone think that was a bad idea? Renewable and clean sources of energy, for which labor is required in the US, are also good ideas. Shifting off of oil and diesel to electric and natural gas (along with efficiency improvements like hybrid tech) for vehicle and truck energy will reduce our dependence on foreign oil while still leaving us with a reliable energy supply that uses established technology. Shifting community design to put people closer to school, work, and commercial centers lets us have all we want while saving time and gas, as well as cutting traffic. Finally, simple, cheap improvements like smart thermostats and added insulation can cut carbon emissions dramatically and pay for themselves through savings.
It’s win win win, all around, if we do it right. You don’t have to be a hippie to see it.
I think we got this all wrong. I remember the Earth Concerts or whatever they were called that produced a huge carbon footprint and no lasting effect whatsoever. I am sure all the talk about Earth Hour in the news causes more energy consumption than the actual thing saved.
Switch something off for one hour and than party as usual is not the solution. We need to change our attitude and the way we do business.
dolphin (09:01:09)
The purpose of Earth Hour was to generate discussion, therefore logically, the amount of discussion generated by Earth Hour is an appropriate (perhaps the only appropriate) measure of it’s success.
The purpose of Earth Hour was to generate discussion about Earth Hour, mostly about how ridiculous it was? OK, if you say so.
I don’t try to reduce my impact on the environment for you. I do it because it’s what I want to do. …trying to take small steps where I can to be earth conscious
Thank you dolphin, for a double-dose of red herrings this time (nice to change things up, eh?). What you do (or think you do) “for the environment”, or to be “earth conscious”, and why has no bearing on the discussion of the “success” of the Earth Hour” farce. This is difficult for you to see, though, logic obviously not being a strong point for you.
No one claimed Earth Hour would save the world, or even have a meaningful impact on climate or energy usage. It’s symbolic, a first step for awareness, and to demonstrate how easy it is to do some simple things. That’s actually the point. If one person turns off one light it does not impact the climate. But if it becomes a greater matter of social consciousness, turning off unnecessary lights can have a very significant impact, still just the beginning though. Criticizing people who have a conscious and want to help do the right thing is cynical and nonconstructive. It’s like mocking someone for throwing their popcorn bag away in a movie theater. It’s better to mock those who contribute to the problem out of cynical antisocial self-interest, even better to educate rather than mock, and even better to lead by example. It’s very small, only symbolic, but it’s something, even if only an expression of how much some portion of the population care about our world. The real potential for positive change can come only through public policy, but that requires awareness and widespread support. Small steps like Earth Day are helping to bring about that support. If you want to measure statistics, don’t measure energy usage, take polls of what percentage of the public is aware that excess energy use is detrimental, and would support public policy measures to reduce fossil fuel dependence and develop cleaner energy sources. Clearly, those statistics are gradually rising.
John: 11:44
The problem is that people, such as you cannot distinguish between education and indoctrination.
John, (11:44:16)
Regarding changing to “cleaner energy sources.” While you are about that, be sure to ask the public, and meaure their responses, to how much additional money they are willing to pay for those “cleaner energy sources.”
I ask you to do this because coal and natural gas-based power are the cheapest things around. Hydroelectric has almost no room for increase, so it is not an option. Everything else will increase prices, especially nuclear power.
Be sure to ask poor people about how much they are willing to pay to enjoy the good feeling of being green, as they will be impacted the hardest. Also ask senior citizens, and others on fixed or limited incomes.
For references, please have a look here:
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/ab-32-hits-poor-hardest.html
and here for the Nuclear Death Spiral, that adversely impacts the poor:
http://energyguysmusings.blogspot.com/2009/02/more-nuclear-nuttiness-and-nuclear.html
and here for costs of electricity from nuclear power plants ($0.25 to $0.30 per kwh):
http://energyguysmusings.blogspot.com/2009/02/nuclear-power-costs-2008.html
so what did you guys gain by turning on all your lights on earth hour? was there a goal? were you trying to stick it to all the green people(or hippies… with that good ol’ logic yours)? or just show how little of a life people can have when they try and refute logic. this goes for you too bruce!
bruce youre just being a d-bag.. in all honesty. the fact that you use an extended vernacular to try and make yourself sound more intelligent is extremely transparent. youre not smart dude…. sorry! 🙁
i actually do things to make as little of an impact as possible. im using a ne mac book right now just to get that out of the way. and i think this might be a good time to bring up.. NO ONES SAYING YOU HAVE TO HAVE NO IMPACT AT ALL.. people with REAL educations tend to be a little less black-and-white than that. its just good practice, especially in showing appreciation for your life, to try and limit little things at first and start finding new ways that suit your lifestyle. you can make a big impact that way. im vegan, i ride my bike(yeah i own 2 cars that i drive when i need to), i recycle and dont use materials that cant be composted and i turn off lights when i dont need em on.. not very hard. it just takes not being selfish.. but thats very hard for conservatives i know.
andrew (16:39)
Your selfless attitude of “having as little an impact as possible” to negate your sins against the planet has a long and mature history.
Thank you for turning ON the lights for Light UP the Earth Happy Hour on Saturday March 28, 2009 8:30-9:30PM and thank you for relaying the NCWatch report and data review — so Rush could shine the Light of Truth and give it all BRILLIANT MegaWatt commentary! Would also love to see some updated Lights ON satellite photos of the USA-Worldwide during that Happy Hour ! The tomb lights were shut off and dark in Egypt so don’t be surprised when some very haunted reports start to surface from the lights-off crowd ! But they asked for it !
Jeez
oh yeah dude, i do that regularly.. totally falls in line with what i said.
“NO ONES SAYING YOU HAVE TO HAVE NO IMPACT AT ALL.. people with REAL educations tend to be a little less black-and-white than that.” i think its about being practical.. not chosing one side or the other. lol i live comfortably not excesively.. i think thats the point i was trying to make.