Guest post by Steven Goddard
One month ago, Secretary of Energy Dr. Steven Chu warned of apocalyptic drought in California.
“We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.” And, he added, “I don’t actually see how they can keep their cities going” either.“
USA today warned :
Calif. facing worst drought in modern history
Almost immediately after Dr. Chu’s pronouncement, the rain and snow started in earnest. As of today, all California Snowtel stations report normal snow depth and water content, as do all stations in Colorado where California gets much of their water from.
The combination of the Gore Effect , the Hansen Effect, and the Chu Effect may just save us from climate Armageddon. People in the AGW camp commonly leverage the power of symbolism, like swimming Polar Bears. Below is some good symbolism from Kirkwood, California – taken yesterday.
Over eight feet of new snow earlier in the week at Kirkwood provides an incredible final stop of The North Face Masters of Snowboarding
http://www.crsportsnews.com/?id=786048&keys=Dewey-Baker-Kirkwood-Northface
BTW – Polar bears love to swim – when they are not terrified by Greenpeace helicopters flying overhead.
http://www.animalpicturegallery.net/animal-picture-polar-bear-swimming2-ucumari-animalpicture.jpg
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To be fair to Dr. Chu, the western USA was settled during a time of usually high water levels (as I understand it), so that expectations of available water were too high when development plans were made. Doesn’t the Colorado river now dry up in the middle of the Mexico dessert where it used to reach the sea? (Doesn’t mean his global warming alarmism is on the right track, of course).
JimB said, “As for Hansen/Che’s motivation?…”
Che??? Could this be a Freudian slip?
Slightly OT:
Q: What are the two primary indicators of a great British education?
A: Writer seamlessly weaves references to the Goons and Monty Python into otherwise really, really serious stories, viz., catastrophic anthropogenic global warming.
Even further OT:
I would like to know why Spike Milligan never became the Queen’s Poet Laureate.
Sylvia
Snotel averages represent a 25 year rolling average. That is, every year the new year is added and year 25 is dropped. Therefore, we are currently still being influenced by the conditions of the early 80’s. We will soon be in the era where the dry 90’s will be a large influence and will probably see a lot of “above normal” reports
WRT Colorado river currently non native tree species consume more water than LA ,San Diego and Las Vegas combined as the river winds its way to the sea. I can not remember the link but was within the last two days.
Just a thought. A couple of posts above analyse The Goracle and postulate that he is ‘more than smart enough’. However, to put him in perspective, we should remember his intellectual superior at university – at least in terms of academic results was one George W Bush.
DAM. DAM. DAM!!!!
The problem for California is that no significant water storage DAMS have been built since the mid-70s.
Take a look at the graph in this pdf. Almost no change since 1980 in surface storage.
http://www.edf.org/documents/4033_hetchhetchyrestored_Chap03.pdf
I read long ago that the Great Plains were semi-desert and useless for agriculture when the Oregon Trail was in operation, and that only a change of climate around 1850 brought enough rain to allow the growing of crops. Can anyone confirm (or contradict) what I remember from before 1970?
Ian M
On Spike Milligan’s gravestone is carved in large letters…….
“I told you I was ill”
On Al Gore’s maybe it should read……….
“You told me I was wrong”
Sorry, Tallbloke, I have to call you out on these.
Cleese never played any of the Inquisition parts. Palin was always the the main char (Cardinal Richelieu? Or was he supposed to be Tor?)
Eric Idle sang the Galaxy song solo.
😉
To go along with my DAM DAM DAM post.
California Water Storage 1980 -2007 = 42mil to 43mil = about 2.5%
California Population 1980 – 2007 = 23mil to 36mill = about 50%
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/pops/pops06.htm
There’s an interesting article in the Feb 2009 issue of Photonics Spectra; an optical/electronics Industry “trade” journal. In their “Past Particles” column highlighting prominent scientists in the field, they have a featured article by David L Shenkenberg about Retired Bell Labs Physicist Arthur Ashkin (now 86 years old).
In the article Ashkin talks about his discovery of the “Optical Trap”, which is a laser method of moving and even trapping small particles including biological specimens, and eventually even atoms themselves. Ashkin invented the technique 39 years ago at Bell labs, even though the lab had cut his funding for the program, he kept working on it on his own. and succeeded in trapping microscopic balls. Then he wanted to move on to manipulating atoms, so he had a young chap named Steven Chu join his group to work on optical trappiong which Ashkin taught to his young helper.
Eventually in 1985 Chu and his associates did succeed in trapping atoms with the traps that Ashkin taught him how to build.
When the Swedish Academy came to consider nobel Prize for the discovery of Optical tracking, they came up with a Russian scientist in the then USSR named Vladilen S. Letokhov, whom they said; apparently incorrectly was also working on optical trapping while Ashkin was doing his Bell Labs work.
In the end, they made the award only to Chu, and none of his co-workers, in cluding Ashkin, who invented the technique, was recognised.
So Chu may know about optical trapping, but he evidently doesn’t know beans about either California agriculture, or Climate science. Ashkin eventually extended the manipulations to biology, in 1987, and it is now a standard technique for biophysicists studying bio-molecules and organisms. The Bell Labs Holmdel Lab was eventually closed as a result of the 1984 antitrust decision against the Bell System.
tracking = trappping
OOoops !
For Ian M.
The arid plains of the southern Canadian Prairies (part of the Great Plains) were assessed by a chap named Palliser in the mid 1800s. He defined the Palliser Triangle.
You can read about it here:
http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/index.cfm?PgNm=ArchivedFeatures&Params=A220
http://esask.uregina.ca/entry/palliser_triangle.html
Quote: In his final report to the British government Captain John Palliser suggested that a triangular portion of what is now the southern prairie provinces was a northern extension of the arid, central desert of the United States: “This central desert extends, however, but a short way into the British territory, forming a triangle, having for its base the 49th parallel from longitude 100° to 114° W, with its apex reaching to the 52nd parallel of latitude.” Palliser described this triangular area as “desert, or semi-desert in character, which can never be expected to become occupied by settlers.” End quote.
Clive
Aaaachu!!!
Gesundheit!!
SWC Plot shows California near normal.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC
Expect at least one more storm before this is over with.
Brian:
Good one! There will never be another Spike.
And in case you missed it, the latest water conditions are here as published by CDEC. They also have reservoir data.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/water_cond.html
Current precip:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/PLOT_ESI
Until the snow survey guys go out and ski the courses, the numbers are not final on the snow plots.
A lot of summary data at CDEC is 1-2 months behind. They are not automated at all on a lot of stuff.
Come on you guys. You’re making it hard to have coffee when I read this blog. “the ah Chu effect!” (Tim L. 18:40:12) and “Chu on that!” (Ray 21:19:25) are classics.
Last year at this time, California snowpack was 110% of normal. This year it is 90% of normal. California doesn’t get much rain or snow after March.
It is clear that California has serious water problems, but blaming it on drought is not a sensible way of looking at the problem.. There is more water being used than is available. The winter of 2005 was the second wettest on record in LA, and followed a spell of very wet winters. That can’t be counted on, and trying to reduce CO2 is an irrational and thoughtless approach to the unbalanced water use. El Nino is supposedly more frequent due to global warming, and El Nino brings rain to California.
The point of this article is not to say that California isn’t in trouble, but rather just making fun of the empirically observed Chu/Gore/Hansen effect.
Bruce (07:40:15) :
DAM. DAM. DAM!!!!
The problem for California is that no significant water storage DAMS have been built since the mid-70s.
Take a look at the graph in this pdf. Almost no change since 1980 in surface storage.
http://www.edf.org/documents/4033_hetchhetchyrestored_Chap03.pdf
But clearly California as a state is Damned!
CodeTech:
I remember the “drought” in Alberta. The CBC (Canada’s public brodcaster) said something like “…the drought that will continue this summer…”. Of course, that summer we had record rainfall with widespread flooding.
Sylvia, Just Want Truth and Chuck:
The San Jose, California average for the past 130+ years is about 14.4″
Sylvia mentioned the 82-83 season as being particularly wet. I checked the data, and 82-83 came in at 30.25″, more than double the average.
Both 04-05 and 05-06 came in right around 23″, so quite high as well. It is true that the past couple of years have been light, but not abnormally so, in the big scheme of things. It is quite common to have a couple of years in a row with single digit precipitation, and the year-to-year numbers vary widely. As a perfect of example of both points, we can note the following:
Chuck referred to the 76-77 drought. That year was 8.98″, so a bit low. However, that followed on from the 75-76 season which was only 5.77″. Combined, those years resulted in a significant drought. However, the very next year (77-78) came in at 21.85″
Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing just a bit more rain this spring, but I don’t think the rainfall itself shows evidence of being a crisis. We’ll see how 08-09 shakes out . . .
At the end of the day, the climate probably won’t change significantly from what it has been the past 100+ years :), so the real key to any long term water shortage will lie in storage and use.
Cyclical droughts are the norm in California. I of course am referring to the drought in intelligence now occuring in the state legislature……….
The California Goodbye Chu-Chu is going to be wrong. All this madness reminds me of the religious whackos who appear with some regularity carrying signs which say “The End is Near” . . . “Repent Now”. They are never right, and while there will be dark times ahead for California, they won’t be due to rain storm and drought so much as they will be due to the extreme liberalism of the state legislative bodies and the eco-whackos.
Thanks, Bruce and hereticfringe, for the population vs. storage capacity point. This is probably the heart of the issue, rather than anything to do with the climate. The rainfall numbers I’ve looked at over the last 130+ years of rainfall (at least for the San Jose area) show no meaningful trend.