Guest post by Steven Goddard
One month ago, Secretary of Energy Dr. Steven Chu warned of apocalyptic drought in California.
“We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.” And, he added, “I don’t actually see how they can keep their cities going” either.“
USA today warned :
Calif. facing worst drought in modern history
Almost immediately after Dr. Chu’s pronouncement, the rain and snow started in earnest. As of today, all California Snowtel stations report normal snow depth and water content, as do all stations in Colorado where California gets much of their water from.
The combination of the Gore Effect , the Hansen Effect, and the Chu Effect may just save us from climate Armageddon. People in the AGW camp commonly leverage the power of symbolism, like swimming Polar Bears. Below is some good symbolism from Kirkwood, California – taken yesterday.
Over eight feet of new snow earlier in the week at Kirkwood provides an incredible final stop of The North Face Masters of Snowboarding
http://www.crsportsnews.com/?id=786048&keys=Dewey-Baker-Kirkwood-Northface
BTW – Polar bears love to swim – when they are not terrified by Greenpeace helicopters flying overhead.
http://www.animalpicturegallery.net/animal-picture-polar-bear-swimming2-ucumari-animalpicture.jpg
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NOAA short term trends show a sliver of drought in CA only in the north on the leeward side of the Cascades (D1 on a scale of D0-D4).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/tools/edb/sbfinal.gif
Text under the map, emphesis added:
“This map approximates impacts that respond to precipitation over several days to a few months, such as agriculture, topsoil moisture, unregulated streamflows, and most aspects of wildfire danger.”
Quote of Chu, emphesis added:
“Were looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.”
Yes, the Chu effect is real.
It’s cyclic. Eventually it will get dry in California and eventually it will get wet too!!! Give it time and the cycles will come and go and start again.
Chu on that!
John Egan says:
“Folsom is now 104% of it 30-year average.”
As of midnight – 03/07/2009
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reservoirs/RES
Folsom is at 60% of capacity. Folsom is a relatively small storage pool (977k AF) on one of the states major watersheds, and is the major flood control structure protecting Sacramento from American River watershed floods. Folsom pool level is always held low this time of year to allow for flood control during snow pack melt a bit later in the spring, so the 30 year average for this date is also always low.
Same story for Bullards Bar, which is also at 104% of average, but only 69% of capacity.
To a lesser extent, this is also true of nearly all of California’s reservoirs at this time of year. Storage is always kept below full pool at this time of year, to allow flood storage for snowpack melt, so the long-term averages against which current pool levels are compared,are artificially low.
if we look at the major storage structures in California for which data is reported on that table (say those with near or over a million acre feet) we see a much different picture.
Trinity, 2.5 million AF capacity, 45% of capacity, 59% of average.
Shasta, 4.5 million AF capacity, 52% of capacity, 69% of average
Oroville, 3.5 million AF capacity, 46%, 64%
New Melones, 2.5 million AF capacity, 52%, 87%
Don Pedro, no data
McClure, 1 million AF capacity, 35%, 65%
San Luis, 2 million AF capacity, 43%, 49%
Pine Flat, 1 million AF capacity, 31%, 57%
These constitute the bulk water supply for California. All of those are barely half full, or less, with snowpack water content above those reservoirs that is still below average for this date.
At the end of January, State Water Project forecasts were that they would have trouble delivering 15% of their agriculture water contracts this summer, and that would have been a disaster, with orchards and perennial crops dying, and almost all SWP farmland fallow. Federal water forecasts were similar. The very wet February may have saved us from a major water disaster this summer – but California is still going to have a very tight water year this year. Water project deliveries for Ag are going to be significantly below contract, causing significant agricultural losses. And, some individual watersheds and smaller storage basins are still in serious trouble.
BTW, the question was asked above, the baseline for the “percent of average” is 1961-1990 average storage on the date of comparison.
Sylvia (19:03:41) :
Hi Sylvia
I’m on the other side of the Bay from you. It’s smelled so nice outside the past month from all the rain. My neighbors lemon tree is loaded too! All the hills are beautiful green.
We’re being told by politicians and scientists about the drought in California but every day people can see the rain and snow. Those who are crying wolf now are gaining a bad reputation–where’s the wolf?… “Where’s the beef!?”
It is no longer there, but I copied the following from the california Dept of Water Resources last July:
The Long-term Climatic Viewpoint
The historical record of California hydrology is brief in comparison to geologically modern climatic conditions. The following sampling of changes in climatic conditions over time helps put California’s twentieth century droughts into perspective. Most of the dates shown below are necessarily approximations. Not only must the climatic conditions be inferred from indirect evidence, but the onset or extent of changed conditions may vary with geographic location. Readers interested in the subject of paleoclimatology are encouraged to seek out the extensive body of popular and scientific literature on this subject. An overview of the subject can be found on the web site for NOAA’s paleoclimatology program.
PAST CALIFORNIA CLIMATIC CONDITIONS
circa 11,000 years before present Beginning of Holocene Epoch- Recent time, the time since the end of the last major glacial epoch
6,000 years before present Approximate time when trees were growing in areas now submerged by Lake Tahoe. Lake levels were lower then, suggesting a drier climate.
900-1400 A.D.(approximate) The term “Medieval Megadrought” is used by some climate researchers to describe a series of long-duration droughts occurring in the Western United States during this time period. Physical evidence of these droughts remains not only in the tree-ring record, but also in relict tree stumps rooted in present-day lakes, rivers, and marshes in the Sierra Nevada – including Mono Lake, Tenaya Lake, Fallen Leaf Lake, West Walker River, and Osgood Swamp. Researchers identified two epic drought periods from these remains, one lasting more than two centuries prior to A.D. 1112, and the other lasting more than 140 years prior to 1350. Recent tree-ring-based streamflow reconstructions (see figure) funded by the Department confirm similarly epic drought periods in the Colorado River Basin in these timeframes. These drought conditions in the Four Corners region of the Southwest are considered to be one reason for the decline and eventual disappearance of the complex Anasazi cultures that had relied on irrigated agriculture to support relatively high-density populations.
1300-1800 A.D. (approximate) The Little Ice Age, a time of colder average temperatures. Norse colonies in Greenland failed near the start of the time period, as conditions became too cold to support agriculture and livestock grazing.
Mid – 1500s A.D. Sustained drought throughout much of the continental U.S., lasting as long as 50 years according to tree-ring records. Drought suggested as a contributing factor in the failure of European colonies at Parris Island, South Carolina and Roanoke Island, North Carolina.
1850s A.D. Sporadic measurements of California precipitation began.
1890s A.D. Long-term streamflow measurements began at a few California locations
For an Introduction to Paleoclimatology:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/perspectives.html
Pasted from
Jeff Coatney (19:18:25) :
Given Messrs. Chu and Hansen’s unassailable credentials what could possibly account for their recent statements and/or behavior? This is a serious question. I find their activities utterly astonishing.
It can possibly be the “nerd effect”. To acquire such credentials most of the time, the formative socializing age of teens and early twenties is spent in a monk like isolation from outside reality. It goes to their head if they finally/sudeenly get an audience out of all those guys and girls that ignored them in their youth. In truth, they have a skewed political instinct.
harlie,
I wrote the article on Saturday, when all reporting snowtel sites in California were over 90-110%, which is what they mark as normal (green.) On Sunday, Truckee and Walker dipped slightly below 90%. Not sure what could have caused this, as temperatures have been below normal.
Ski areas in California have healthy amounts of Snow. Kirkwood has a 550cm base.
http://www.onthesnow.co.uk/california/skireport.html
The main reason that California is having severe water shortages is because there are too many people, using too much water – in a region prone to drought.
Pamela, snowing right now in the Willamette Valley at 700′ and above. Glad I got the peas planted last week.
Hockey stick. (data missing)
Ice cores. (data reversed)
Heat island. (data dismissed)
Hottest temperatures for the 1900s (wrong data set)
Satellite sensor drift. (bad data.)
Antarctic temperatures. (magic data)
Yada, Yada, Yada!
I no longer trust the California snowpack measurement
process!
We have a similar thing over here known as the Gordon Brown effect. Just in the last month we have seen the following results of his Midas touch:
Gordon signed a “Mini” motor car for charity, four days later Mini announced 850 job cuts.
12th February, Gordon gave his full support to the Chairman of UK Investments Ltd. The Chairman resigned later that day.
The following day Gordon visited a steel plant, that afternoon the owners announced plans to cut back production and reduce costs by £600million in one year.
Gordon described the port of Southampton to be “one of the most important in the country”, three days later the port cut its workforce by 10%.
On the day his impending visit to the USA was announced over here, Washington DC was brought to a halt by snow.
On his arrival in Washington the Dow Jones Index hit a new low (this after the dollar hit a new low against the Euro on the day Gordon visited the US in 2008).
The day he returned the current champions of the TV quiz University Challenge were disqualified for fielding an ineligible contestant. Gordon made a special visit to congratulate them when they won.
That’s just one month, there are dozens more examples.
[Oval Office door opens]
Obama: Ah, Chu.
Chu: Bless you. Sorry I’m late.
Obama: All this global warming talk is having a negative effect on the markets.
Have you seen the Hang Seng?
Chu: He got snowed at a coal plant and couldn’t make the meeting.
Browner: Too bad, we need his opinion on how to regulate the evil gas.
Obama: Try eating more Greens.
Browner: Well, we thawed them out but I doubt they’ll be protesting again soon.
Obama: Where’s the Governator?
Chu: In Frisco paddling his new Kayak.
Obama: Off the Bay?
Chu: No, it was a present from the Goracle.
Obama: Coracle? I thought you said he got a Kayak.
Browner: Isn’t it windy?
Chu: No, it’s thursday.
Obama: So am I, let’s order coffee.
Reply: Approved with mild reservations. Chu does serve under Obama so I decided a little satire is fair game ~ charles the moderator
FatBigot (00:08:44) :
“We have a similar thing over here known as the Gordon Brown effect. Just in the last month we have seen the following results of his Midas touch: ”
Maybe it’s time we started calling him “Flash Gordon.”
Update on the Prince of Wales Effect.
Slightly off topic but worth a laugh.
No second thoughts it is just sad.
The future King, who predicted in May 2008 – that we would have a series of disasters in the next 18 months and that we need to act now – is at it again!
Not 18 months but less than 100 months.
http://news.scotsman.com/uk/Prince-to-warn-100-months.5050170.jp
Where is he going to make this revelation?
No not Windsor Palace, that would be silly, but Rio de Janeiro.
“[T]his week as the Prince tours South America with the Duchess of Cornwall”.
How are they going to get there?
Low cost flight from Heathrow?
Now that would be “plane stupid”.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1145127/The-Prince-hypocrites-Charles-embarks-16-000-mile-green-crusade–aboard-private-jet.html
Oh how the other half live.
…searching for the ‘Gore-Effect’ I bumped into a funny definition:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Splatter_film
tallbloke (01:08:14) :
I’m in tears!
Gaia rewards he whose spirit is true.
Cap’n trade has changed climate without reducing emissions.
“Jeff Coatney (19:18:25) :
Were any of these people (Gore, Hansen, Chu, etc.) ever any smarter
than they now appear to be? Perhaps Gore’s lack any scientific training might excuse him as merely a bumbler but Chu and Hansen?
Given Messrs. Chu and Hansen’s unassailable credentials what could possibly account for their recent statements and/or behavior? This is a serious question. I find their activities utterly astonishing.”
Make no mistake here…Gore is incredibly smart. I’d go so far as to label him a mastermind, at least as it pertains to his ability to manipulate the belief systems of large numbers of any given population. He would be equally as effective convincing people of any number of things. Hansen (and Chu) are pretty smart too. Find another scientist that enjoys the world-wide recognition that Hansen does (Chu has likely already surpassed his predacessers in terms of recognition as well).
We make a huge error in judgement when we look at a Hansen and say “What a silly man, anyone can clearly see that he’s wrong.” His genius, and his success, lays wholley in the fact that so many continue to give him credence despite a near total lack of proof.
Gore is many things, but “bumbler” isn’t among them. As for Hansen/Che’s motivation?…follow the money and/or the limelight and/or the influence/power. These three men are having an historical impact on world governments.
I assure you…they are quite smart enough.
JimB
manse42 (23:42:05) :
Well, I was in Atlanta last weekend for American Mensa’s Annual Colloquium. Dr. Hansen was the keynote speaker Saturday night, and was supposed to be at the panel discussion Sunday AM. However, he moved up some travel plans because the rain was changing to snow. (Traveling to the Capital Coal plant protest.) I wasn’t so lucky – a couple inches of snow overwhelms the deicing facilities at Atlanta’s airport and I didn’t get out until Tuesday.
Perhaps there hasn’t been enough time to recharge.
Or I can take credit – on annual trips I use to make to San Jose at the end of February, I’ve seen rain for 10 of the 11 days, a 40 year flood, and snow almost to the valley floor. That first event ended the area’s last major drought.
After a taste of spring on the last couple of days (frost heaves and mud season), it’s snowing again here in New Hampshire.
Hansen’s speech at the Colloquium was quite tame. No mention of death trains, but a few mentions of creation and future generations. He described the problem and why he thinks 350 ppm is so important, but admits he doesn’t know the solution.
Just Want Truth… (21:21:12) :
Sylvia (19:03:41) :
Hi Sylvia
“I’m on the other side of the Bay from you. It’s smelled so nice outside the past month from all the rain. My neighbors lemon tree is loaded too! All the hills are beautiful green.
We’re being told by politicians and scientists about the drought in California but every day people can see the rain and snow. Those who are crying wolf now are gaining a bad reputation–where’s the wolf?… “Where’s the beef!?””
Just Want Truth,
Where is the beef?
Take a look at the Federal Budget under “Climate Taxes”.
As Global Warming has turned into Global Cooling, As Polar Melt has turned into
growth and AGW has turned into “Climate Change” the Administration, desperate to make the point with the American Public takes advantage of every opportunity to
create an atmosphere of urgency to keep the legislative process of CO2 mitigation ruling on track. They are desperate.
The “Terminator”, running the almost bankrupt State of California, grabs any opportunity to tap into Federal Funding.
To Call for an emergency is an effective method.
Steven Chu saw a “Moment of Opportunity” to boost the “Climate Change” doctrine and performed his speech that turned out a “Rain Dance”.
This leaves us with the following question!.
If a short term assessment about the California drought made by a the Secretary of Energy, a scientist and Nobel Prize laureate, results in almost instant failure, how is it possible that our Government, our Members of Congress and the Senate introduce the most devastating climate legislation based on “Long Term Predictions”.
If you fail on short term predictions, you will certainly fail on long term predictions.
So, Just want truth, here is the truth.
Reply: Approved with mild reservations. Chu does serve under Obama so I decided a little satire is fair game ~ charles the moderator
Thanks Charles. It’s just a bit of fun. Can I try to get part two past you or have I pushed your tolerance far enough?
Kofi Annan: Hey! I’m just here to hold the peace, not to take orders.
Guard: Put the gun down and step away from the window.
Annan: I was just watching the snowflakes, we don’t get snow where I live.
Chu: [Imitating G. W. Bush drawl] Say, where is Nigeriania anyway?
Annan: It’s in Africa.
Obama: So the gun’s for tiger hunting?
Michael Palin: A tiger? in Africa??
All: What are you doing here?
Palin: Collecting material for a new Monty Python series.
Browner: I liked the ‘Dead Parrot’ sketch.
Obama: Speaking of which, what happened to global warming Al?
Chu: Yeah, it’s freezing. I caught a nasty cold [Sneezes violently]
Browner: Bless you. Yeah Al, what’s gone wrong with your Carbon Cred scheme?
Gore: Well, I wasn’t expecting the Spanish Inquisition.
[A black robed figure leaps from the closet]
John Cleese: No-one expects the Spanish Inquisition!
[Palin and Cleese sing to the tune of ‘The Galaxy Song’]
Well the planet’s getting hot, it’s Co2! or maybe not
It’s got the hacks and greens in such a spin
We’re taxed into the ground, for driving cars around
And flying down to Rio’s mortal sin.
But don’t panic just yet, keep your cool and hedge your bet
The temperature is dropping every day
The ocean cooling down will stop the gulf stream going round
And the glacier from the north is on it’s way.
Gorgeously Goonish. Well crafted 😀
Dear Water Nerd –
Ever heard of spring runoff ??
There are two measures –
Percent of normal and percent of capacity.
Even in good water years reservoirs are held at 70% to prepare for spring runoff if there is a normal snow pack – which, it seems, there is this year.
The two largest California reservoirs – Shasta and Oroville – also saw dramatic increases in storage during the past 30 days. Shasta has gone from 1,444,000 acre-feet to 2,414,000 af – that’s a MILLION acre-feet of additional storage. Oroville has gone from 1,037,000 af to 1,659,000 af – that’s a 65% increase in one month. Shasta and Oroville remain below average, but the overall water storage situation combined with the near-normal snow pack hardly make this water year a catastrophe – at least from the perspective of available water.
What will be a catastrophe is how various water agencies allocate water. I am under no illusions about the nature of agriculture in the Central Valley. I’ve read Goldschmidt. But to wipe out Westside agriculture at a time when California is teetering on the bring of bankruptcy is not especially wise. The drought is not over, but the prodigious rain and snowfall of February have altered the equation significantly.
PS – More rain is on the way next week.
The apocalyptic prophecies of the Warmists and their “sky is falling” propaganda was a topic of discussion amongst a group of my friends last weekend. The severe drought warnings coming at a time of persistent rainfall is amusing and frightening simultaneously.
Do I believe Chu/Gore or my lying eyes?
It seems that I’ve chosen the red pill.
In the Matrix, which pill would you take, the red or the blue?
http://www.arrod.co.uk/essays/matrix.php
dear flying spaghetti monster, what if all 3 of them spoke at once. the gore-chu-hansen effect.. best not get these people in the same place.. On second thoughts maybe we should.
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.full.pdf+html
At least 52% of all the droughts in the US are attributable to PDO and AMO effects and not to global warming at all.
PDO and AMO both positive [like 1925-1945] and [1995 -2007] (category C in paper above)
Record warm and rising temperatures and droughts in the northern and central high plains US, California, and Southeast. The very hot spell and dust bowl of the 1930’s. Also
explains the so called rapid global warming period of 1976-2007 [not caused by CO2 at all].
PDO negative, AMO positive [like 1945-1965] and [near term future for us now] D
Cold temperatures in the northwest, Canada. Droughts in southwest. Pattern is like the 1950 drought with major issues in the Midwest, southwest, California, Rocky Mountain area. A repeat of this period may have already started in 2007
PDO and AMO both negative [like 1965 -1975] and again [1915-1925] B
Record Cold temperatures. Lot of snow and precipitation.Very few droughts, restricted to central plains. This could be the pattern in a few years and the latter part of the next 30 years.