I had written back in July 2008 about the 10.7cm solar radio flux hitting a new record low value. Part of that has to do with the inverse square law and the distance of the earth to the sun, which is at a maximum at the summer solstice. As you can see below there has been a very gradual rise since then as we approached the winter solstice. David Archibald provides an update below and compares our current period to other solar cycles. – Anthony
UPDATE: In comments, Leif Svalgaard offers his graph, and also speaks of the flatlining. See below the “read more” – Anthony
The graph above is of two year windows of the F 10.7 radio flux centered on the last five solar minima. They are stacked up so that they are 20 solar flux units apart on the same vertical scale. The original data is from: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsolarradio.html#qbsa
That site notes:
“The quiet sun level is the flux density which would be observed in the absence of activity. Extrapolation to zero of plots of the 10.7cm flux against other activity indices such as plage area or total photospheric magnetic flux in active regions suggest a quiet sun flux density of about 64 s.f.u. This is rarely attained.” The lowest daily value in this minimum to date was 64.5 in June 2008.
What is evident is that this minimum is quite different from the previous four in that the intra-monthly amplitude has died from June 2008. The monthly average low was July 2008 and the series has been in uptrend at 0.7 units/month thereafter. This is a very weak but very consistent uptrend, perhaps the first sign of a rising Solar Cycle 24. There is very little noise in this signal, suggesting a very weak Solar Cycle 24.
– David Archibald
UPDATE: Leif Svalgaard writes in comments:
As part of my ‘homework’ for the Sunspot Panel [2 years ago] I produced a short document
http://www.leif.org/research/When%20is%20Minimum.pdf
comparing F10.7 and MgII [another solar index] around minima. I have updated the graph in the document to show the flat-lining of F10.7.
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E.M.Smith (02:33:57)
1)”But with low UV (that makes ozone) and with the N.pole pointed away from the sun )(winter) something has to be making all that ozone! Solar currents?”
The height of the tropopause varies with latitude and time of year. In the
Northern hemisphere it is lowest in winter, highest in summer and exhibits a
poleward decrease in height. The height variation is most pronounced North of
latitude 30′ and results in about 10% of the mass of the Northern hemisphere’s
stratosphere being exchanged annually with the troposphere. Some 4 to 8 x 10^10
kg of ozone can be added to the Northern hemisphere troposphere by this process.
2) More clouds? (Svensmark!)
Cloud ion formation was first proposed by Dickinson (1975) with regard to GCR.
A more accepted theory for cloud condensation nuclei is with biological feedbacks.
It should be remembered there are two UN organizations,the IPCC and the UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel on Ozone.
Some interesting extracts.
The Sun’s output is not constant over time, and solar UV-C radiation changes significantly over the 11-year solar cycle. This UV-C does not penetrate as far as the Earth’s surface, but changes in UV-C cause ozone changes of ~3%. Counter- intuitively, the UV-B received at the surface is therefore expected to be a minimum when the solar output is a maximum. However, there may be other climatic impacts of solar variability as well (e.g. changes in cloud cover),…
…Cloud Effects
Cloud effects are important. The mean attenuation of UV-B by clouds is typically in the range 15-30%. There have been improvements in the measurement of clouds from automated imagers at the Earth’s surface. Progress has been made relating these cloud images to satellite-derived cloud patterns and to the UV radiation received at the Earth’s surface.37 There is evidence for long-term changes in cloud in some regions, as discussed later….
Biospherical Feedbacks
Other feedbacks can involve the biosphere (Chapters 4 and 5).9, 84, 85 For example, increasing UV can reduce the productivity of oceanic phytoplankton. This can produce two feedbacks. Firstly, it reduces the oceanic sink for carbon in atmosphere (production of carbonates which fall to the sea floor). Secondly, it can influence the production of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), which is an important source of condensation nuclei.85 This, in turn affects cloud-droplet size, cloud reflectivity, and hence planetary albedo.
They include more than the amateur radio operators. The Ionosphere effects most all radio frequencies that pass through it. The ionosphere has several layers that each act differently at radio frequency. The intensity of the ionization and altitude of these layers are of great concern to radio communications systems. The ionozation level and altitude change from night to day, and according to the intensity of the suns activity. At some frequencies it acts like a mirror (actually bending/refracting the radio path), this returns the radio signal to the earths surface many miles away from its local signal coverage area. International short wave radio broadcasts like the BBC, Voice of America, Voice of Russia (formerly Radio Moscow), Germany’s Deutsche Welle etc. use this “skip” characteristic to reach into countries far from the home locations of the broadcast transmitters. Likewise the average guy using a CB radio is also effected by “skip” off the ionosphere, as are folks that like to listen to AM broadcast stations in distant cities late at night.
During times of high sun activity, “skip” becomes much stronger and more reliable for communications. It can also become a nuisance at low frequency bands, like CB, 11 meter ham radio, and 45 mhz local government frequencies. At other frequencies the ionosphere is essentially transparent. These are used for communication links to satellites, and ham radio techniques like Earth Moon Bounce communication where radio signals are bounced off the moon and back to earth to communicate to distant stations.
There is also a Maximum Usable Frequency that is controlled by ionospheric conditions that determines the upper limit to frequencies that are bent far enough to be returned to the surface of the earth as a skip path for long range communications off the ionosphere.
http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2009/02/13/10652/?nc=1
http://hfradio.org/muf_basics.html
When skip is strong as it was years ago, I used to listen to broadcast AM stations late at night from Chicago, and New Orleans like they were local stations here in Colorado. During times of high “skip” conditions CB radio allows extremely long range communication sometimes using multiple bounces between broadcast antenna, ionosphere, earth surface and back to the ionosphere. In the late 1980’s and early 1990’s on our local government frequency in the 45 mhz range we would sometimes hear traffic from New Jersey here in Colorado as if it was local traffic.
The ionospheric effects due to the sun also impact high frequency emissions like the signals from the GPS satellites and they need to compensate for those distortions to get accurate GPS location fixes. Some Radar systems can also be effected by reflections and back scatter from the ionosphere.
In short the strength and effective altitude of the various radio reflection layers of the ionosphere impact most any system that depends on radio frequency transmissions to communicate or gather information.
This is why many radio amateurs monitor and maintain web sites that keep track of sunspot number, 10.7 strength etc..
Google HAM radio, ionosphere, and radio skip for more detailed information.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skip_(radio)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_usable_frequency
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ionosphere <— discusses the layers
Larry
*******
EMSmith:
But with low UV (that makes ozone) and with the N.pole pointed away from the sun (winter) something has to be making all that ozone! Solar currents?
*******
I agree that is puzzling. Texts state that most ozone is created in the Tropics. Makes sense, the sunlight (& UV) is generally at its most direct angle there. By analogy, less is made at higher latitudes, and polar areas hardly any. Yet in winter we often see patches of high ozone either transported to or forming in polar regions. Is it persistent in the atmosphere? I’d a thought its lifetime would be short (hrs?) once the UV stopped.
Leif Svalgaard (21:16:44) :
to
David Archibald (20:28:51) :
I was the first person on the planet to predict a long solar cycle 23 (in 2006)
Dikpati et al. said in March 2006:
“the first spots of the next cycle won’t appear until late 2007 or early 2008″.
I think we saw it in January 2008.
Mr. Archibald
Not entirely correct. If you looked up my formulas published in Jan 2004,
http://xxx.lanl.gov/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0401/0401107.pdf
and extrapolated to any year ahead, as in
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/combined.gif
you would obtain for SC24 in 2013 around 80. However, that does not entitle any of us to claim anything, after all Dr. Hathaway may win laurels at the end, but I doubt it.
Is it possible for GCR’s to make ozone in the absence of sunlight (Arctic in Winter)? The poles are where the neutron monitors record the greatest influx.
“The solar cycle has a great influence on space weather, and is a significant influence on the Earth’s climate since luminosity has a direct relationship with magnetic activity. Solar activity minima tend to be correlated with colder temperatures, and longer than average solar cycles tend to be correlated with hotter temperatures. In the 17th century, the solar cycle appears to have stopped entirely for several decades; very few sunspots were observed during this period. During this era, which is known as the Maunder minimum or Little Ice Age, Europe experienced very cold temperatures.[58] Earlier extended minima have been discovered through analysis of tree rings and also appear to have coincided with lower-than-average global temperatures.”
(Source Wikpedia)
“you would obtain for SC24 in 2013 around 80.”
I’ve found some of your thinking interesting. Your prediction, however, detracts from that general impression.
vukcevic (13:57:59) :
David Archibald (20:28:51) :
I was the first person on the planet to predict a long solar cycle 23 (in 2006)
Dikpati et al. said in March 2006:
“the first spots of the next cycle won’t appear until late 2007 or early 2008″.
I think we saw it in January 2008.
Mr. Archibald
Not entirely correct. If you looked up my formulas published in Jan 2004,
Perhaps you guys can stop the pissing contest:
Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?
Schatten, K. H.; Tobiska, W. K.
American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #34, #06.03; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 35, p.817
Publication Date: 05/2003
Abstract
Long-range (few years to decades) solar activity prediction techniques vary greatly in their methods. They range from examining planetary orbits, to spectral analyses (e.g. Fourier, wavelet and spectral analyses), to artificial intelligence methods, to simply using general statistical techniques. Rather than concentrate on statistical/mathematical/numerical methods, we discuss a class of methods which appears to have a “physical basis.” Not only does it have a physical basis, but this basis is rooted in both “basic” physics (dynamo theory), but also solar physics (Babcock dynamo theory). The class we discuss is referred to as “precursor methods,” originally developed by Ohl, Brown and Williams and others, using geomagnetic observations.
My colleagues and I have developed some understanding for how these methods work and have expanded the prediction methods using “solar dynamo precursor” methods, notably a “SODA” index (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude). These methods are now based upon an understanding of the Sun’s dynamo processes- to explain a connection between how the Sun’s fields are generated and how the Sun broadcasts its future activity levels to Earth. This has led to better monitoring of the Sun’s dynamo fields and is leading to more accurate prediction techniques. Related to the Sun’s polar and toroidal magnetic fields, we explain how these methods work, past predictions, the current cycle, and predictions of future of solar activity levels for the next few solar cycles.
The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity. For the solar physicists, who enjoy studying solar activity, we hope this isn’t so, but for NASA, which must place and maintain satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), it may help with reboost problems. Space debris, and other aspects of objects in LEO will also be affected.
Robert Bateman (14:02:22) :
Is it possible for GCR’s to make ozone in the absence of sunlight (Arctic in Winter)? The poles are where the neutron monitors record the greatest influx.
GCRs generally destroy ozone.
There is an interesting dilemma with regard to the effect of solar activity on radio communications. Historically, ships at sea relied on ionospheric propagation for contact with the rest of the world. Due to the vagarities of the ionosphere, as discussed here, the jump to satellite communications was expected and works well. However, this depends on ‘normal’ solar activity, as major particle ejections can and have trashed satellites. So, if we do go into a cycle which includes major solar storms, and satellites fail, the ships will be in a world of hurt, as many have no HF capability any longer. This same discussion applies to government security communications, and any other worldwide system which cannot be tied to a fixed terminal using underground/underwater cables or fiber (Internet).
One entertaining aspect. The MSM always runs their scare story every ~11 years about power outages, communications failures, etc., due to the upcoming sunspot cycle. What will they run for scaring the public if there is a weak cycle?
Anthony, David, Leif: Thanks for the site, the topic, the thread, and the unbeatable education. Leif, thanks for your generosity in time, patience, and helping train us in the scientific method. Now we can face our giant sun, feeling the warmth of its rays upon us (TSI), and still think our own thoughts about what is causing our variable climate. Perhaps we might even be able to make with friends with CO2 so that our money, scientific minds, and technology can be used to try to figure out how to keep our planet warm enough to stop, or at least hold off, the next period of glaciation. At the very least we can learn to cope with the vicissitudes of earth’s climate. A great read.
Leif Svalgaard (15:17:04) :
GCRs generally destroy ozone.
Ouch.
Leif gave you the 10.7MHz flight time.
That would be 2.8 GHz actually or 10.7 cm if you prefer wavelength.
Solar. – Just to keep om topic. 😉
Dr Svalgaard, Vukcevic
I am not claiming to have predicted a low Solar Cycle 24 result – others have done that. What I did was take the logic to the next step. If Solar Cycle 24 was going to have an amplitude in the 40s, then the preceding cycle was going to be a long one. The first sign that Solar Cycle 24 would be weak is if Solar Cycle 23 took a long time to finish. The heliospheric current sheet is telling us that the month of solar minimum is likely to be in August 2009, and could be in 2010. The graphic has a good bit of predictive power. Solar Cycle 23 is increasingly looking like Solar Cycle 4. It is a beautiful world.
EMSmith:
But with low UV (that makes ozone) and with the N.pole pointed away from the sun (winter) something has to be making all that ozone! Solar currents?
This is a very interesting topic. Following are some of the atmospheric dynamics that influence stratospheric ozone (all independent of chlorofluorocarbons and chemical effects).
Ozone is highly soluble in water and it comes and goes in the tropical stratosphere with the strength of convection, in turn related to the energy reaching the tropical ocean. Good proxy for this is 850hPa temperature where latent heat of condensation is expressed.
Air ascending in the tropics must be balanced by air descending elsewhere so the mid latitude high pressure cells and the polar high pressure cells together account for the descent. All year, Antarctica takes much of the load of descending air at high latitudes and this can be seen in a marked temperature fall there when the equator warms. (Amundsen Scott has been cooling steadily while the rests of the globe has warmed). In winter the Arctic is cold enough to get into the act. In summer the lack of downdraft over the Arctic probably assists to conserve ozone in the northern stratosphere.
Currently the Arctic Vortex is stalled by the sudden stratospheric warming so a lot of the load of descending air is coming down in the mid latitude high pressure cells.
There is a symbiotic relationship between mid winter warming in the Arctic and sea surface temperature in the tropics. I think the mechanism involved is a loss of high altitude ice cloud as the upper troposphere warms. Sea surface temperature at 20N to 20S has two peaks the larger of which is generated between December and April. This is when the Arctic warming occurs.
Increased rate of ascent of the air in the tropics causes a rise in the tropopause there and marked cooling of the air between 100 and 50hPa over the equator. This is independent of the ozone reduction effect due to solubility in water and is happening right now concurrent with the stratospheric warming.
La Nina in the tropics conserves ozone in the stratosphere as moisture levels drop there. In addition, the energy that drives the Brewer Dobson circulation is cut off and less stratospheric air is driven into the troposphere.
Stratospheric temperatures rose over the last 8 years or so after declining steadily as far back as the record goes (1948).
In my opinion temperature in the stratosphere as high as 10hPa is very much a function of ozone content as determined primarily by humidity. Ozone content of the air in the troposphere between 200hPa and 100hpa is less affected by humidity because the air is very cold. Surface temperature influences upper troposphere temperature but the presence of ozone causes a strong peak in temperature in mid latitudes of both hemispheres in February –March. The temperature increase at 200hPa is several times the sea surface temperature increase in the southern hemisphere at that time of the year. In the northern hemisphere of course, sea surface temperature reaches a minimum at this time of the year. So the surface cools while upper troposphere warms. Apart from ice cloud density this phenomenon affects the strength of the easterly winds across the tropics and the northward and southward extension of the Hadley cell.
The heating of the stratosphere in the Arctic starts at the top and works its way down and on this occasion has raised temperature all the way to the Arctic surface.
A recent thread on this site discussed the increased detection of muons far underground when the Arctic Stratosphere warms. Theory is that the atmosphere warms permitting this to occur. I see no reason why the warming and expansion of the atmosphere should not be attributed to the action of short wave radiation from the sun. The extent of the warming may be related to the high ozone content currently observed in the Arctic…..lit up like Christmas as you say.
Here are a some good sites to look at temperature in the troposphere/stratosphere.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/index.shtml
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_monthly.html?channel=tmt
David Archibald (20:49:23) :
The first sign that Solar Cycle 24 would be weak is if Solar Cycle 23 took a long time to finish.
It is the other way around: a low-prediction [back in 2003-2004] of SC24 almost automatically makes SC23 long, no surprise there.
The heliospheric current sheet is telling us that the month of solar minimum is likely to be in August 2009, and could be in 2010.
No, it doesn’t. I kinda invented the HCS and have studied it longer than anybody. The Rosenberg-Coleman effect has started which means that we are on the upslope of SC24. You can see here http://www.leif.org/research/Rosenberg-Coleman-Effect-2008.png that the variation of Bx and By in 2008 is an almost perfect sine curve, showing that the current sheet is flat. The calculated ’tilt’ angle [e.g. by WSO] is an over-simplification.
Solar Cycle 23 is increasingly looking like Solar Cycle 4. It is a beautiful world.
Not at all, more like cycle 13.
David Archibald (20:49:23) :
The first sign that Solar Cycle 24 would be weak is if Solar Cycle 23 took a long time to finish.
It is the other way around: a low-prediction [back in 2003-2004] of SC24 almost automatically makes SC23 long, no surprise there.
The heliospheric current sheet is telling us that the month of solar minimum is likely to be in August 2009, and could be in 2010.
No, it doesn’t. I kinda invented the HCS and have studied it longer than anybody. The Rosenberg-Coleman effect has started, which means that we are on the upslope of SC24. You can see here http://www.leif.org/research/Rosenberg-Coleman-Effect-2008.png that the variation of Bx and By in 2008 is an almost perfect sine curve, showing that the current sheet is flat. The calculated ’tilt’ angle [e.g. by WSO] is an over-simplification.
Solar Cycle 23 is increasingly looking like Solar Cycle 4.
Not at all, more like cycle 13.
David Archibald (20:49:23) :
The first sign that Solar Cycle 24 would be weak is if Solar Cycle 23 took a long time to finish.
It is the other way around: a low-prediction [back in 2003-2004] of SC24 almost automatically makes SC23 long, no surprise there.
The heliospheric current sheet is telling us that the month of solar minimum is likely to be in August 2009, and could be in 2010.
No, it doesn’t. I kinda [co-]invented the HCS and have studied it longer than anybody. The Rosenberg-Coleman effect has started, which means that we are on the upslope of SC24. You can see here http://www.leif.org/research/Rosenberg-Coleman-Effect-2008.png that the variation of Bx and By in 2008 is an almost perfect sine curve, showing that the current sheet is flat. The calculated ’tilt’ angle [e.g. by WSO] is an over-simplification.
Solar Cycle 23 is increasingly looking like Solar Cycle 4.
Not at all, more like cycle 13.
[perhaps a moderator would be so kind as to delete the two previous posts]
I find it interesting how quickly Svalgaard jumps onto Archibald looking for the slightest crack and the manner and apparent venom in his replies is not exactly professional. That has all the hallmarks of a worried man. Archibald clearly stated in the beginning he was the first to predict a long cycle length for SC23 and did not deserve the “pissing” statement.
I also find it interesting that Svalgaard on most occasions backs up his arguments with his own research or papers. I would prefer to see more evidence from other sources to achieve some balance.
SC23 is very much like SC4 although the timing is slightly different….in the background the angular momentum is very similar on both occasions. Keep up the good work David, your method of thinking is refreshing.
hotrod (11:39:34) :
Thanks for the answer on radio wave “propagation”. While I digest this, perhaps you could answer or speculate…
How will solar activities of (these/any) wavelengths / frequencies affect luddites (also here in Colorado), who refuse to buy new digital televisions? We still have our old analog antenna, which I will give up when they unclench my cold dead fingers from around the money necessary to buy something better.
With the converter, we get decent imagery and sound from KRMA, for example, but it’s punctuated with periods of digital “freeze”, “pixelization”, and silence, like the film suddenly broke in the projection booth. My understanding is that KRMA intends to boost its signal from KHz to MHz when they finally make “The Transition”. So, my questions are these:
1. Is a stronger digital signal any more likely to be a clearer signal?
2. Do digital or analog t.v. broadcasts make use of the “skip” which you describe as so usefull to radio broadcasts?
3. If we are not in “line of sight” of the broadcast antenna, will we still be receiving a signal?
If I wake up in the penalty booth, I’ll know if this is off-topic … you never know unless you ask.
As a relative newcomer I appreciate all posts from David and Leif re their content of science and knowledge and research and find both most interesting, as I do many posters…However, I must agree that there does seem to be some rather quick jumping on and criticizing of posts, which hits me right in the eye everytime I have a new read of the threads. This does seem a bit over the top to be occurring all of the time, and does not help an otherwise great read and thread.
Here is a prediction from our solar paper. It indicates that if the next solar sunspot max (cycle 24) is in Dec 2012, then the peak sunspot number for cycle 24 will collapse to values below 80.
(Note: the Sunpsot number in the top graph have been divided by 10)
“on most occasions backs up his arguments with his own research or papers”
Like the proverbial iceberg, 95% is hidden from view. Glad some are awake.
“Not at all, more like cycle 13.”
Apart from length, Rmax, bimodal morphology, ordinal position in its quintet, its rise over run ratio, etc. A great fit.
What is the frequency, Kenneth?
Geoff Sharp (23:26:28) :
I find it interesting how quickly Svalgaard jumps onto Archibald looking for the slightest crack
Well, well. Take this statement: “The heliospheric current sheet is telling us that the month of solar minimum is likely to be in August 2009, and could be in 2010” that I ‘jumped’ on. I would have jumped less had Archibald offered some justification for this, possibly backed up with research from others for balance. It is ‘the slightest crack’ that makes the dam break.