Can’t you just see this scrolling across your TV during an EAS alert?”…. If this had been an actual El Niño, you would have been instructed on where to complain to your nearest modeler turned forecaster….” I wonder what kind of graphical icon TWC will come up with for an El Niño Watch? – Anthony
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Feb. 5, 2009
Contact: Linda Joy
301 713-0622, ext. 127
NOAA Unveils New Alert System for La Niña and El Niño
La Niña Likely to Continue into Spring
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today issued the first La Niña advisory under its new El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System. Forecasters expect La Niña to influence weather patterns across the United States during the remainder of the winter and into the early spring.
Defined as cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña impacts the weather globally. La Niña’s opposite is El Niño, or warmer than normal ocean temperatures. These changes in ocean temperatures alter the tropical wind and rainfall patterns with far reaching implications.
“The typical weather patterns associated with La Niña and El Niño affect many industries including agriculture, transportation, energy, shipping and construction,” said Michael S. Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “The ENSO Alert System will succinctly inform industry, government agencies, academia and the public about the onset and status of La Niña and El Niño. This system will also help decision makers plan for the potential effects presented by these conditions.”
La Niña conditions have been present since late December, but it is too early to say exactly how strong the event will be and precisely how long it will last. However, for the next few months La Niña is expected to bring milder and drier than average conditions to the southeastern and southwestern states. It is also expected to bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and cooler than average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest.
The new ENSO alert system includes La Niña and El Niño watches and advisories which the Climate Prediction Center will issue when specific conditions exist.
- La Niña or El Niño Watch: conditions in the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the development of La Niña or El Niño conditions in the next three months.
- La Niña or El Niño Advisory: La Niña or El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to continue.
These watches and advisories are now part of the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, which is issued by the Climate Prediction Center on the Thursday falling between the 5th and 11th of every month. It is available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
– 30 –
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Why would the “Climate Prediction Center” issue alerts about phenomena that influence the “weather”? Is this meant to reduce the likelihood that people will believe their own lying eyes rather than the alarming AGW claims about “climate change”?
Bob D: I don’t really follow the weather impacts of ENSO, but since global temperatures mimic NINO3.4 SST anomalies with a lag of 3 to 6 months regardless of the intensity, then weather should also be impacted. The effects would be less if the NINO3.4 SST anomalies varied less and for a shorter period of time. Those are assumptions, though.
Bob Tisdale (15:41:01) :
Thanks Bob.
Steve Hempell, you wrote: “Did you read the Appendix A & B? Now there is some stuff to be discussed as I mentioned at 09:41:25. I wonder what Bob Tisdale thinks of it. I would like to know more about the empirical evidence from the AQ satellite too.”
Steve, I have a limited working knowledge of GCMs and while I enjoyed Dr. Gray’s description of “Global Warming Due To Natural Processes” in his Appendix B, he’s dealing with a number of processes that are outside my areas of interest, so I can’t comment either way. Sorry.
Sorry OT
Leif sense:
COMET TAIL: Comet Lulin (C/2007 N3) is approaching Earth and putting on a good show for amateur astronomers. Yesterday, Feb. 4th, observers witnessed a “disconnection event.” A gust of solar wind tore off part of the comet’s tail in plain view of backyard telescopes. Photos of the event are featured on today’s edition of http://spaceweather.com.
David Ball
David you are welcome. Judi McLeod deserves the utmost credit for her journalistic courage and integrity in publishing the news that the cowardly, sycophant journalists in the USofA will not publish. To paraphrase GWB, “Judy McLeod, doing the journalistic work that American journalists will not do.”
Thanks Ed Scott for those excellent links. (13:22:50) & (14:03:54). Dr. Ball makes the same suggestion that many of us have been making:
The reason the AMS refuses to ask its dues-paying members’ position on AGW via a secret ballot poll is that the truth would emerge: the rank and file AMS membership does not accept the AGW/CO2 climate catastrophe hypothesis that is fueling the ridiculous taxpayer-funded spending proposals.
In other words, the AMS leadership is lying for money.
Thanks also for the kudos to Judi McLeod, who is not only more brave than most of her male colleagues, but she has personally responded when I’ve emailed her.
And if I’ve publicly shamed most of the male media reporters, good. Grow a pair.
Antarctic sea ice extent is up 35% and ice concentration is up 22% over 1979 (the first full year of satellite measurements) according to data recently released by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado and reported here (http://globalwarminghoax.com/comment.php?comment.news.104)
Bob,
Actually, I was thinking that you might comment on the THC/MOC and whether they tie into your ideas on the PDO/ENSO. The THC/MOC possibly being the grand overall mechanism and the PDO/ENSO adding more complexity?
Frederick Michael (14:58:19) : “We’ve already had another 30 spotless days since the last update on the j.janssens site so that’s 540 spotless days and counting.”
Yes. Per janssens excellent site, the next milestone is SC17, with 568 spotless days. We may be only a month away from surpassing SC17. That will give more spotless days for the SC24 ramp-up than any cycle since SC15 (1908–1913).
SC Month 1st Rd=0 Month SC-min Delta Total
17 September 1930 September 1933 36 568
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html
Steve Hempell: Without Thermohaline Circulation time-series data, it would be difficult for me to dispute or agree with Dr. Gray’s conclusions.
These constantly changing El Nino/La Nina warnings are strangely reminiscent of the yellow and orange Homeland Security levels.
Self-defeating, waste of effort.
Keep it up, beat the crying wolf drum.
More like Dr. Thule will soon make thier voices heard.
The public also grows sick & tired of the circus act.
OT but I don’t know where else to park it
I was surprised to see this in a UK newspaper. (Online version – but I saw it in print first)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1136866/ANDREW-ALEXANDER-Faith-hope-whats-new-religion.html
Jorgekafkazar,
Agreed. And looking at past trends,
http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/sidc_graphics.php
blowing by SC17 is a safe bet.
Catching up to SC15 sure would be a stretch, but who knows. Every time SC24 looks like it’s finally crawled out of its cave, something happens and it goes back into hibernation. All predictions have fallen by the wayside as this minimum just keeps on hangin on.
So, how long until this trickles down to things like the Artic sea ice extent? I’m guessing the lag could be years but probably not decades.
Dr. Spencer published the UAH number for January at 0.31 pretty close to my models 0.27, probably luck but I’ll take a 0.04 error
See Wally (04:35:05) : for prediction.
So if my trend continues this should end the heating for a while.
OT
Has anyone seen this yet? Met O announces global cooling to 2014; will need to wait for BBC confirmation 🙂
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/4534358/Snow-Britain-Further-snow-and-ice-forecast-for-rest-of-the-winter.html
“Despite global warming there could be further colder-than-average winters in the years ahead as the climate cools naturally, the Met Office believes. Mr Britton said that the last 10-year assessment – carried out in 2004 – suggested a decade where global warming would be held back by a natural cooling trend. But beyond 2014 the climate will resume its warming trend, he said.”
If that really came from Met O it is the biggest whopper they’ve come up with yet.
In August 2007 after a failed “prediction” in January and again in April for the warmest year on record, Met O stated:
“Climate scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre will unveil the first decadal climate prediction model in a paper published on 10 August 2007 in the journal Science. The paper includes the Met Office’s prediction for annual global temperature to 2014.
Over the 10-year period as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 °C warmer than 2004. At least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record”
The emperor has no clothes.
Mary Hinge (10:26:15) :
Slightly OT but the AMSU values are very interesting at the moment and seem to be following AGW predictions solidly at the moment. There has been a large drop in temperatures at 21km the last week or so. http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+007
Meanwhile temperature below 7.5km have started increasing again.
Are you talking of the famous tropical troposphere trends that AGW predicts?
1) it would have to warm faster in the TT than on the surface, which it is not doing at the moment ( though these measurements are “weather” and not “climate” at the moment)
2) there have been long drawn out arguments from AGW that any warming will have the same signature in the TT.
3) the cooling stratosphere has always been consistent. ( though this recent heating pulse is not seen in the amsu data. It possibly is much higher up than the reported heights.)
Maybe the sun is being lax about making it’s baby sunspots sleep in the proper position and they are all dying of SIDS
anna v,
warmers can argue all they want, it is written in stone that the TT should see maximum warming. What they’ve tried, and failed, is to attempt to find errors in the satellite data. Upon that failure, they tried to show wind patterns were correlated to a warming TT. Oops, that failed too. Their latest debacle is the Santer et al 2008 polished turd for which Steve McIntyre has submitted a paper for publication.
Actually, the stratosphere has not cooled since 1994 which prior to that just happened to coincide with two large volcano events. This is why relying on long term linear regression trends can be deceptive.
This is interesting because in Australia the ENSO cycles have been part of our regular weather forecasts for years now. The position of The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is mentioned in the 7 pm news.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=nino34&p=monthly
So, how long until this trickles down to things like the Artic sea ice extent? I’m guessing the lag could be years but probably not decades.
Looking over the records for my town in No. West Ca which is Pacific Ocean moderated and has records back to 1897, the snowfalls followed the solar cycle minimum years of 1911-13 as records, but the coldest years of the time were 1915-1917, a 4 year lag.
Currently, our snowfalls are picking back up as regular events as opposed to rare dumps the last 2 years, something not seen in more than 50 years.
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/supp/poll/default.htm
OT “Cosmic ray detector reveals sudden atmospheric warming”
http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=300
“Cosmic rays are high-energy particles that stream into Earth’s atmosphere from space. One type of particle, the meson, is unstable and quickly decays into another, the muon. When the atmosphere heats up, it expands, and this means fewer mesons are destroyed by hitting air molecules. This in turn means more mesons are available to decay naturally into muons”
As I remember “The Chilling Stars” suggests that it’s muons that are the particles that cause the seeding of clouds.
“Solar cycle changes to planetary wave propagation and their influence on the middle atmosphere circulation ”
http://www.springerlink.com/content/p433255624401r32/
Holy Toledo! Looks like they got so much snow yesterday *in Morocco* that at least one house collapsed from so much snow.
Saw it noted on an article update at Icecap.
Maybe we need an alert for heavy winter weather in places that aren’t used to it.
Anthony:
This is off-topic, but I don’t know how to contact you directly.
Are you familiar with this article: Does a Global Temperature Exist?
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/globaltemp/globaltemp.html
I posted a question to you in the past on the nature of this metric. It seem interesting.
Regards,
L