Guest Post by Steven Goddard
January, 1790 was a remarkable year in the northeastern US for several reasons. It was less than one year into George Washington’s first term, and it was one of the warmest winter months on record. Fortunately for science, a diligent Philadelphia resident named Charles Pierce kept a detailed record of the monthly weather from 1790 through 1847, and his record is archived by Google Books. Below is his monthly report from that book.
JANUARY 1790 The average or medium temperature of this month was 44 degrees This is the mildest month of January on record. Fogs prevailed very much in the morning but a hot sun soon dispersed them and the mercury often ran up to 70 in the shade at mid day. Boys were often seen swimming in the Delaware and Schuylkill rivers. There were frequent showers as in April some of which were accompanied by thunder and lightning The uncommon mildness of the weather continued until the 7th of February.
Compare that to January, 2009 with an average temperature of 27F, 17 degrees cooler than 1790. One month of course is not indicative of the climate, so let us look at the 30 year period from 1790-1819 and compare that to the last 10 “hot” years.
According to several of the most widely quoted climate scientists in the world, winters were much colder 200 years ago than now – yet the boys swimming in the Delaware in January, 1790 apparently were unaware.
Another interesting fact which can be derived from Charles Pierce’s data, is that January temperatures cooled dramatically during the period 1790-1819 – as can be seen in the graph below. The cooling rate was 13F/century. What could have caused this cooling? We are told by some experts that variations in solar activity can only affect the earth’s temperature by a few tenths of a degree. CO2 levels had been rising since the start of the industrial age. The downward trend is fairly linear and does not show any sharp downward spikes, so it is unlikely to be due to volcanic activity. What other “natural variability” could have caused such a dramatic drop in temperature?
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I’m an AGW skeptic, but this post is farcical. Even assuming the measurements are accurate and scientific, this is a tiny data point. It isn’t measuring the whole US or even a state. It’s a city. It would only be compelling with coupled with other, more pertinent, pieces of information.
Steve Berry (09:49:42) :
“Is this true? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7841030.stm”
I do not think it is true.
We know that most trees resist a wide variation in temperatures.
Possible causes could be:
insects, lack of water, lack of minerals, erosion, forrest management etc. etc
I think the article is a hoax.
Just for the Record…
Charles Pierce is not now and was not then employeed by Exxon Mobile, he received no grants or contributions from energy lobbyists groups or right-wing political think tanks. He received no advances from the Coal Industry in order to create his journal. Nor was the man mistaken, using faulty equipment, or an out and out fibber.
Standard Disclaimer regarding any factual historical accounts of weather and/or cumulative weather into climate in order to counter what surely will be claims of “fiction” , not accurate journals, amatuer records, and motivations paid for by corporate greed centuries prior to needing the misinformation,by the fabrication of historical records by time travelling agents on the payroll of the SHELLEXXIBURTON BP Corp.
Come on you know that will be the next argument tossed into the ring by the floundering AGW movement as more such records are located.
Pamala Gray ((07:37:24) said:
“Other than the Great Lakes snow affect, the weather patterns you all get in the East comes from the frontier. The wild wild west.”
I must take exception to that statement Pam. While it’s true that the general circulation provides us with numerous depressions forming in the lee of the Rockies, most of the moisture that falls in the N.E. is from the East. All our tropical storms are products of the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic. The greatest snow storms are generated on the Atlantic seaboard, and Lake Effect snow is generally confined to a 75 mile area downwind of the lakes (this year has been an exception!). The common Alberta Clipper off the Rockies is very dry until it reaches the Great Lakes where they will pick up some moisture, and if strong enough and slow enough may even get some reinforcement from the Atlantic. The biggest thing affecting our weather right now is those dang burn continental Polar air masses from beautiful downtown Dawson and environs.
I found this set of data highly interesting:
http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm
Although it is billed as a “Climate History of the British Isles”, it nevertheless includes world events. I’m unsure whether it is of any use in the context of this particular thread, but it certainly makes for fascinating reading!
I particularly like the following observation of the period 4000-3500BC:
“Climatic optimum”: peaked circa 4000 – 3500 BC (some references say 4000 – 2500 BC); markedly reduced glacier extent. (var. refs); tree-lines in northern areas, particularly northern England & Scotland roughly 300m (or 1000ft) higher than they are now, with forests established at higher elevations than now: this implies that wind-damage might not have been a major problem. This in turn translates into weaker, less frequent spells of significantly low pressure (i.e. major cyclogenesis spells). (see also previous date file .. this period started circa 6200 BC). Both globally & regionally, several references mention an anomaly of ~ + 2degC over those values relating to the latter third of the 20th century.
Enjoy!
Steven Hill (12:59:59) :
“Obama won and he says there is a Global Climate Crisis. So, that’s the end of that. Expect changes asap.”
I wouldn’t be too sure. Obama seems to be intelligent. Smart enough to realize that he wanted all the greenies and AGW folks supporting him. In that vein he has appointed some of these people to his administration. However, that does not necessarily turn into policy. He may just put them to work coming up with ideas which will never turn into anything concrete. Wouldn’t be the first time.
BobK (13:30:10) :
“What are the natural causes of the record heat in western australia, russia and western USA? I’m debating my alarmist friends. Thanks”
They are just as you said, “natural” climate variations that have occurred for billions of years. No different than the ones you see highlighted here such as snow near Dubai and all time records lows in Maine and Illinois.
Obama is intelligent, but misguided by those who have his ear. The announcement today concerning automobile emissions, coupled by his many statements and appointments all underline his stance that the world is warming and we are the cause of it.
I guess my issue with this article is that “anecdotal” statements or observations are ignored in today’s modern computer model era. Apparently Mann has not been sufficiently discredited, nor Hansen in their continuing manipulation of historical temperature records. These observations and evidence just don’t seem to matter much as we jump into an abyss, one of our own making for a massively flawed belief.
Terribly sorry, my earlier link seems to go back to this article!
I hope this works:
Nick
Richard M-
Please consider Obama’s executive orders today. See: www. abcnews.go.com/Politics/Economy/Story?id=6732327&page=1
>>>>The U.S. Chamber of Commerce also criticized Obama’s memorandums.
“At a time when we need to jump start our economy, regulating CO2 in this manner would stop most of President Obama’s stimulus proposal cold in its tracks and create a regulatory train wreck,” William Kovacs a vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement. “In addition, such a move would put the EPA one step closer to making carbon dioxide ‘subject to regulation’ under the Act. This would … have the unintended consequence of creating costly and burdensome permitting requirements on millions of construction projects including hospitals, schools, and office buildings.” <<<
Seems to me Obama is moving swiftly.
Sorry for this post but i got a laugh when I read the bristlecone post above!!! I think Climateaudit.org has a lot to say about that issue and how it too has been adjusted to show current warning as “anthropogenic”.
My apologies Anthony. I should have gone through all the posts prior to posting my last one.
I’ll just write the link out. I’m having trouble with the WordPress tags
http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1650_1699.htm
Sincere apologies.
REPLY: Note that is all you have to do, no tags needed. WordPress puts in links to URLs automatically. – Anthony
Pierre Gosselin (05:55:11) :
“I meant hockey stick”
I think you were right the first time with “hokey” but you misspelled shtick.
That’s Mann’s hokey shtick ;0)
“I’m an AGW skeptic, but this post is farcical. Even assuming the measurements are accurate and scientific, this is a tiny data point. It isn’t measuring the whole US or even a state. It’s a city. It would only be compelling with coupled with other, more pertinent, pieces of information”
Ken,
You’d be surprised what information one station can provide via a time series analysis of this one station. While, it would be impossible to know for sure what the exact state of ENSO or the AMO, this one station could still provide clues. It is real data, and not proxies nor modeled grid output.
See here
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/elements/jetstream1.htm
for some really good info on the jet stream. It drives lots of weather patterns and when it shifts, so does the weather pattern. Large loops can fool you into thinking that weather drivers on the East Coast come in from the Northeast and are not a part of the energy coming from the West. The exception is this: As you travel closer to equatorial climates, one gets further away from the NH jet stream influence. Anyway, enjoy the site.
It’s too late so why are they so concerned? We now live in an age where science is of no consequence.
————————————–
New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible
January 26, 2009
A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate change caused by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there’s no going back.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090126_climate.html
Pamela gray,
Clarification: When I said “comes from the east” i was referring to the Eastern 2/3 of the U.S. as opposed to the Western 1/3. I did not mean that it comes literally out of the “East.”
A first step in removing your carbon foot-print and the money from your wallet.
An act of scintillating brilliance.
—————————————-
President Obama Signs Environmental Memoranda
January 26, 2009 12:16 PM
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/01/president-oba-8.html
The first of the two presidential memoranda — which the president erroneously referred to as “executive orders” — asks Jackson to reconsider the Bush EPA’s denial of a waiver to California and more than a dozen other states to seek tougher auto emissions standards than the current federal level.
The second presidential memorandum directs LaHood to, by March, finalize the fuel efficiency standards for cars for 2011 and to make recommendations for beyond that year, an action expected to lead to stricter fuel efficiency standards.
Sorry ’bout that Novoburgo. I am a linear literal thinker. Which is why I don’t get most jokes other people tell me, and I only tell jokes I get.
CJ (01:09:31) :
Is it just me, or does Solar Cycle 4’s decline look very similar to 24’s? the shape of the slope looks very similar to me.
No, it’s not just you. Anybody who takes 5 minutes with the graphs of the cycles looking for a pattern match will see it. I first spied it 6 months back.
A child picked it out. The lengths also match well.
The only difference is that SC23 has a double hump, whereas SC4 had a single peak. SC5 had a double (notice the swap), so I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see SC24 end up with a single peakas part & parcel of the change.
It goes even further: SC3-4 matches SC22-3 in progression, relative size, and slopes.
We had a twister touch down a couple of days ago causing damage here in No. CA, and another one today. NWS is again invetigating.
Talking about jet stream and changes, the massive swing of the jet stream off the coast of CA is persistent, pausing only to let a few storms into Oregon & Washington.
This is our Climate Change here as we descend back to times not seen in 200-400 yrs.
Pierre Gosselin (05:55:11) :
I meant hockey stick
Pierre, actually I think you had it right the first time: hokey stick!
**********************
This is a very good article. The more rigorous articles are needed to build the case that AGW is a hoax, but articles like this are so accessable and make the point in a memorable way. Kudos.
Ron de Haan (16:20:21)
They can also suffer from root invasion by larger trees. They may survive while they are young but as they grow they need more nutrient. If that isn’t available they become weak and die. Larger trees can also die if the land slips.
Where would one find the rate of gamma ray bursts ?
Our first detector, designed to pick up nuke tests in the USSR, was found to pick up cosmic events at a rate that, if i remember correctly, made it useless for its intended function.
Instead it created a flurry of new science curiosity, where/from what could such massive events be coming from, at such mind blowing energy levels, considering distance.
Perhaps one missing component from the solar activity plots is a measure of the incoming cosmic radiation?
I would not expect radiation generated by massive cosmic events to be uniform in intensity/frequency. as the cosmic ray bursts are not.
A solar minimum would have a smaller effect during periods of lower activity, such as cosmic ray bursts ?
Ron de Haan (16:05:12) :
Are you sure it’s not “Svansmark” from “Denmark?”
You are right, I need to wear my glasses.
Svensmark from Denmark, please.