The NOAA Space Weather Prediction center updated their plots of solar indices earlier today, on January 3rd. With the exception of a slight increase in the 107 centimeter radio flux, there appears to be even less signs of solar activity. Sunspots are still not following either of the two predictive curves, and it appears that the solar dynamo continues to slumber, perhaps even winding down further. Of particular note, the last graph below (click the read more link to see it) showing the Average Planetary Index (Ap) is troubling. I thought there would be an uptick by now, due to expectations of some sign of cycle 24 starting up, but instead it continues to drop.
Meanwhile, the Oulu Neutron Monitor shows a significant up trend, reaching levels not seen in over 30 years. According to an email I received from Dr. David Archibald, GCR flux has indeed increased:
Oulu Neutron Monitor Data, plotted by David Archibald with prediction point added. Data source: University of Oulu, Finland
Svensmark is watching this closely I’m sure.
Looking at the SWPC graph below, it appears that we are in uncharted territory now, since the both the high and low cycle 24 predictions (in red) appear to be falsified for the current time frame. No new cycle 24 predictions have been issued by any solar group (that I am aware of ) in the last couple of months. The last time NASA made a change was in October 08. The question now seems to be, are we seeing the beginning of a cycle skip, or a grand minima? Or is this just an extraordinary delay for cycle 24 ?
Solar cycle 24: where are you?
h/t to Russ Steele
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YAHP : Yet Another Hathaway Prediction…
( ok, every few years: YAHP, YAHP, YAHP…. )
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif
I sometimes think he should replace the backdrop of the sun with a crystal ball.
He’s still picking a max of 100 sunspots so Lief has not quite convinced him.
Regards,
Bob
Beat you by almost exactly 24 hours Bob. It looks like they corrected the January 2008 on the graph to say January 2009, but its the same prediction graph.
Yes, Tex, I know it’s been discussed but now we have a new acronym.
You have to say it fast, although I don’t know how it’d sound with a drawl.
YAHP
Regards,
Bob
Richard111 (00:52:31) :
“Is that a small spot (two?) at about 4 o’clock near the limb?”
Not anymore. But look just up to around 3 oclock near the edge, looks like someone scratched the surface. Get it quick though before it gets cold.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.html
Thank you Leif for your replay. I’m sorry but I have still a little doubt. In that article I noted a big difference between MacMurdo and the south pole. Thule is at about 78 degree N. I was interested about that, because I guess CR could be a very different effect on climate over the poles in comparison to the lower latitudes covered by oceans. What do you think about that? Is it possible that GCR anisotropy originated by IMF has opposite configuration and trends over the north pole?
Thank you in advance
Sergio da Roma (04:10:59) :
I noted a big difference between MacMurdo and the south pole. Thule is at about 78 degree N.
The latitude that is important is the magnetic latitude, not the geographic one. Thule sits at something like 89 degrees [changes a bit with time].
I was interested about that, because I guess CR could be a very different effect on climate over the poles in comparison to the lower latitudes covered by oceans. What do you think about that? Is it possible that GCR anisotropy originated by IMF has opposite configuration and trends over the north pole?
It shouldn’t matter where we are as far as real changes in GCRs are concerned. The thing is a bit of a mystery. I mentioned it mainly as an illustration of why one should not hang too much on what a single stations shows.
NEW SUNSPOTS: For the second time this week, a sunspot is coalescing on the surface of the sun. The spot’s high latitude and magnetic polarity identify it as a member of new Solar Cycle 24; its appearance continues a recent trend of gradually intensifying new-cycle solar activity. The spot is growing rapidly and may soon provide a nice target for backyard solar telescopes.
From – http://www.spaceweather.com
I have been concerned and following the lack of sunspots and lower than predicted.
As of today (1/31/2009) – I think that we’ve had 328 consecutive days without sunspots.
If anyone has contrary info, I’d appreciate it.
Links from
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/science/space/03sun.html; http://spacescience.com/;