And yet to play out, let’s also not forget Al Gore’s 2008 prediction: “Entire north polar ice cap will be gone in 5 years”
-Anthony
By Dennis Avery in the Canada Free Press
“2008 will be the hottest year in a century:” The Old Farmers’ Almanac, September 11, 2008, Hurricanes, Arctic Ice, Coral, Drinking water, Aspen skiing
We’re now well into the earth’s third straight harsher winter-but in late 2007 it was still hard to forget 22 straight years of global warming from 1976-1998. So the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted 2008 would be the hottest year in the last 100.
But sunspots had been predicting major cooling since 2000, and global temperatures turned downward in early 2007. The sunspots have had a 79 percent correlation with the earth’s thermometers since 1860. Today’s temperatures are about on a par with 1940. For 2008, the Almanac hired a new climatologist, Joe D’Aleo, who says the declining sunspots and the cool phase of the Pacific Ocean predict 25-30 years of cooler temperatures for the planet.
“You could potentially sail, kayak or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice . . . is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.” Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs, June, 2008.
Soon after this prediction, a huge Russian icebreaker got trapped in the thick ice of the Northwest Passage for a full week. The Arctic ice hadn’t melted in 2007, it got blown
into warmer southern waters. Now it’s back. (Reference)
Remember too the Arctic has its own 70-year climate cycle. Polish climatologist Rajmund Przbylak says “the highest temperatures since the beginning of instrumental observation occurred clearly in the 1930s” based on more than 40 Arctic temperature stations.
(This uneducated prediction may have been the catalyst for Lewis Pugh and his absurd kayak stunt that failed miserably – Anthony)
“Australia’s Cities Will Run Out of Drinking Water Due to Global Warming.”
Tim Flannery was named Australia’s Man of the Year in 2007-for predicting that Australian cities will run out of water. He predicted Perth would become the “first 21st century ghost city,’ and that Sydney would be out of water by 2007. Today however, Australia’s city reservoirs are amply filled. Andrew Bolt of the Melbourne Herald-Sun reminds us Australia is truly a land of long droughts and flooding rains.
“Hurricane Effects Will Only Get Worse.” Live Science, September 19, 2008.
So wrote the on-line tech website Live Science, but the number of Atlantic hurricanes 2006-2008 has been 22 percent below average, with insured losses more than 50 percent below average. The British Navy recorded more than twice as many major land-falling Caribbean hurricanes in the last part of the Little Ice Age (1700-1850) as during the much-warmer last half of the 20th century.
“Corals will become increasingly rare on reef systems.” Dr. Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, head of Queensland University (Australia) marine studies.
In 2006, Dr. Hoegh-Guldberg warned that high temperatures might kill 30-40 percent of the coral on the Great Barrier Reef “within a month.” In 2007, he said global warming temperatures were bleaching [potentially killing] the reef.
But, in 2008, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network said climate change had not damaged the “well-managed” reef in the four years since its last report. Veteran diver Ben Cropp said that in 50 years he’d seen no heat damage to the reef at all. “The only change I’ve seen has been the result of over-fishing, pollution, too many tourists or people dropping anchors on the reef,” he said.
No More Skiing? “Climate Change and Aspen,” Aspen, CO city-funded study, June, 2007.
Aspen’s study predicted global warming would change the climate to resemble hot, dry Amarillo, Texas. But in 2008, European ski resorts opened a month early, after Switzerland recorded more October snow than ever before. Would-be skiers in Aspen had lots of winter snow-but a chill factor of 18 below zero F. kept them at their fireplaces instead of on the slopes.
*Sources:
Predictions of 25-30 year cooling due to Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Scafetta and West, 2006, “Phenomenological Solar Signature in 400 Years of Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Temperature Record,” Geophysical Research Letters.
Arctic Warmer in the 1930s: R. Przybylak, 2000, “Temporal and Spatial Variation of Surface Air Temperature over the Period of Instrumental Observation in the Arctic,” International Journal of Climatology 20.
British Navy records of Caribbean hurricanes 1700-1850: J.B. Elsner et al., 2000, “Spatial Variations in Major U.S. Hurricane Activity,” Journal of Climate 13.
Predictions of coral loss: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science, Vol. 318, 2007. Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2008, issued by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, Nov., 2008.
Aspen climate change study: Climate Change and Aspen: An Assessment of Potential Impacts and Responses, Aspen Global Change Institute, June, 2007.
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Dennis T. Avery, is a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute in Washington. Dennis is the Director for Global Food Issues ([url=http://www.cgfi.org]http://www.cgfi.org[/url]). He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State.
The 2009 ICCC to be held March 8-10 in New York with some 1,000 scientists and experts attending (double last years’), with a great deal of science discussed will be a huge success, with nary a peep or two about it in the MSM, unless to try to diminish and mock it.
On the other hand, the 2009 UN Climate Conference to be held Nov. 30-Dec. 11 in Copenhagen, with some 8,000 governmental representatives, NGOs, journalists, and others, with a great deal of political wrangling amid pseudoscientific blather will produce Kyoto II, or the “Copenhagen Protocol”, which will be trumpeted worldwide as a huge success overall, especially since the U.S., the last holdout will sign on to it. Naturally, the agreements will not be “nearly enough” to stop climate change, but will be “a good start”.
Meanwhile, the climate will continue to cool, and AGWers will continue to say “it’s just weather”, or “natural variation” or “noise” temporarily overcoming the underlying and potentially disasterous AGW.
The Elfstedentocht may not be the best proxy. I was told by a Dutch speed skating coach that some power plants discharge warm water into the canal systems making them less likely to freeze.
I have been told the 2014 Olympics did not go to Austraia because there will be less and less snow in the Alps. I’ll be watching…they sure have a nice dump this year
“We should wait five years before we say it isn’t going to happen.”
– Jumping the gun
I absolutely agree. As long as it’s just waiting and not pre-emptively trying to change things which are showing little if any signs of needing fixing, even if we *were* able to influence them strongly enough.
Maybe it will be true after 100 more years.
Oh, who the hell are you going to believe? People who measure snowfalls and temperatures, or folks who make up climate models to run on large mainframes?
If it comes down to reality versus theory, you should go with theory every time, even if it bears no resemblance to what’s actually going on! The computer is never wrnog!
/sarc
Don’t worry about cooling, the UK Met Office (and they are good at predicting, aren’t they?….well, aren’t they?) have just put out the following:
“2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.
According to climate scientists at the Met Office and the University of East Anglia the global temperature is forecast to be more than 0.4 °C above the long-term average. This would make 2009 warmer than the year just gone and the warmest since 2005.”
See the rest of this strange piece at:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081230.html
Jumping the gun (08:41:08) :
“Entire north polar ice cap will be gone in 5 years”-Anthony
We should wait five years before we say it isn’t going to happen.
Jump: no need to wait. In 1988 Hansen predicted a 1.2°C temp rise in 20 years; enough to have an ice-free Arctic passage for at least part of the year. The 2008 data showed around a 0.2°C rise and no Arctic passage. Several Arctic cruises to the North Pole and the Pugh kayak stunt (among others) were all planned based on predictions of ice-free passages in the Arctic made in between 2000 and 2007. Not only did it not occur, but the notion failed so badly that it turned embarrassing for all who proclaimed they would demonstrate to the world the effects of global warming.
We could wait another five years, but the AGW wonks won’t. They are rushing faster and faster to get their programs codified and forced on all of us. They say it is an urgency is necessary to avoid the “tipping points,” but I think the upper thinkers of the group realize it really is cooling. If they can get their programs in place under this urgency, perhaps they can claim their programs caused the cooling. Of course, the question remains: will they take responsibility for the negative effects of cooling, such as deaths due to cold, starvation caused by reduced agricultural productivity, etc.?
Off topic, but:
What has been going on with NSIDC’S data?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
First, we had the random adjustment that completed altered history since the ice minimum. Then, we had no ice growth until it met the 1979-2000 average. Now, it is perfectly mimicing the average. Watts up wth that?
Anonymoose, LOL
I think most of the Alarmists have learnt thier lesson; there won’t be very many predictions of doom for 2009 (Of course, NOAA and Hadley will most certainly work up some statistical wonders to stir the pot). At least for now look for more “studies” that push Doomsday out 50-100 years, prove that AGW is only hidden but will rear its ugly head soon, or continued obsession with artic ice, species extinction and other such abstractions. There should also be the seasonal Alarmists studies that follow the beginnings of summer (regional heat waves and localized droughts. floods, severe weather).
Of course, one cannot discount the upcoming legislative session(s). I would not be at all shocked to see a well timed “Alarmist study” to coincide with the Senate’s vote on upcoming AGW legislation. As a matter of fact, I’m sure the floor vote will be timed to occur in mid-late August in the hopes the votes will be taken during a blistering Beltway heatwave. NOAA and NASA will surely concoct the summer of 2009 as the hottest summer since 1850.
The debate goes on (Anthony gets mentioned)
http://theamericansentinel.com/2008/12/30/conflicting-scientific-data-fuels-global-warming-debate/
h/t: http://www.skepticsglobalwarming.com/
The CNN clip posted at skeptic is worth watching.
As an Amarilloan, I wonder how an alpine town at 8,200 feet is supposed to be magically transformed into the same climate as a Great Plains town at 3,000 feet? Does global warming dissolve mountains or something? There is nothing between Amarillo and Canada but tumble weeds and barbed wired fences, same thing South the Gulf of Mexico. What is Aspen supposed to start to get black dusters? Tornadoes? 100mph straight line winds? Softball sized hail?
Or maybe I am reading the thing wrong and Amarillo is going to become the next hot spot for the world’s rich and famous. I bet that’s it!
“Don’t worry about cooling, the UK Met Office (and they are good at predicting, aren’t they?….well, aren’t they?) have just put out the following:
“2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.”
As much as a national embarrasment Hansen and NASA’s AGW fear-mongering are, the UK Met Office is equally embarrasing. I read that the UK is in for some of its coldest weather in decades. I wonder if UK Met predicted that.
A few days before Christmas the news story was Global warming will kill off Christmas trees. I don’t know why I am constantly amazed at how low they go but I am. This story was started by a politician. Here’s a link…
http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200881217076
“Some studies have shown that continued global warming will adversely affect the optimum climate conditions in North Carolina for Fraser firs. A rise in average global temperatures would force the Fraser Fir’s natural climate northward and out of North Carolina. Rising temperatures also increase pest control problems and disease longevity.”
I’ve read supposedly learned studies that indicate the average person looks ahead only two weeks — and forgets a lot of the past. For those people, the individual “scare stories” will be forgotten and the fact they did not come true will be “unnoticed”.
What will remain, though, is the emotional impact. Having heard global warming is destroying the earth for a long time, they will believe it — its called brainwashing.
So, I am not at all optimistic that “mere facts” will have any significant impact on the general populace — until the national news and entertainment media “gets on board”.
Unfortunately, that media have already boarded the “other train” (the AGW train) and are heading in the opposite direction. They have no incentive to “jump that train”, I think. In fact, most media being of liberal bent, the “powers that be” probably cannot imagine they picked the wrong train.
“Alarmists have learnt their lesson; there won’t be very many predictions of doom for 2009…”
Au contraire, mon ami. I predict that New Orleans’ lower ninth ward will be rebuilt and repopulated in time to be swept away by another hurricane. This will reinforce what the consensus of smart people already knew, that global warming problems are man made.
http://www.thisoldhouse.com/toh/video/0,,20053387,00.html
Variations in weather (according to the alarmists) ‘prove’ their agenda. We must be a very vocal opposition against the incoming U.S. administration in their upcoming attempts to drive more $$$ toward the AGW band of thieves.
Thanks for your work Anthony…have posted this link on my site.
http://www.cookevilleweatherguy.com
For Grant Hodges; I think this is the article you want to find.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24811996-11949,00.html
Yes, non hysterical articles about the environment do tend to be rare, don’t they? World not ending? No one doomed? It’s not newsworthy.
I predict in 2009 Al Gore will continue to make millions on global warming while refusing to debate skeptics.
Hey look – the Green Movement finally acknowledges that it is a religion – and here’s its official Bible:
I would think the mid troposphere warming predicted by the AGW modelers would weaken storms by reducing convection. It the air aloft is warmer, wouldn’t that act to reduce convection? And I believe AGW’s greatest impact in the models for increasing average temperature comes from increasing nighttime lows more than increasing daytime highs.
Because CO2 in the atmosphere would work both ways, warming from heat radiated from Earth *and* warming from IR solar radiation, it would act to block solar IR from reaching the surface in the range of frequency where it is opaque to IR. So I would expect to see a moderation of high temperatures and an increase in low temperatures. Examples of this can be seen with water vapor where it might get to 110F in Phoenix but only in the low 90’s in Miami but Phoenix might drop to 60F at night while Miami might remain in the 80’s.
Greenhouse gasses should moderate the extremes of temperature and heating aloft should put a damper on convection which I would expect to moderate major storm activity, not enhance it. But I am not a weather man.
Tom (06:17:00) saith: “Here is my prediction for 2009. As the evidence for man-made global warming becomes less and less reliable and valid, the predications of dire consequences for mankind due to GW will increase exponentially and become more and more absurd. I admit this is not really a prediction but just a statement of fact. More akin to predicting that the sun will come up tomorrow.”
Well, yes, Tom, and it is even more like betting on a horse race after it’s over. (Except that in the case of a horse race, there are entire horses, which is not so for AGW advocates.)
I’ve always thought the “one of the 10 warmest years on record” argument was lame. I’m sure the 2008 S&P 500 average close is among the 10 highest on record, but nobody is saying that the stock market is going up.
Worth keeping an eye on, though nothing unusual yet, Yellowstone is having another earthquake storm:
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/