The Worst Climate Predictions of 2008

And yet to play out, let’s also not forget Al Gore’s 2008 prediction: “Entire north polar ice cap will be gone in 5 years”


By Dennis Avery  in the Canada Free Press

2008 will be the hottest year in a century:” The Old Farmers’ Almanac, September 11, 2008, Hurricanes, Arctic Ice, Coral, Drinking water, Aspen skiing

We’re now well into the earth’s third straight harsher winter-but in late 2007 it was still hard to forget 22 straight years of global warming from 1976-1998. So the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted 2008 would be the hottest year in the last 100.

But sunspots had been predicting major cooling since 2000, and global temperatures turned downward in early 2007. The sunspots have had a 79 percent correlation with the earth’s thermometers since 1860. Today’s temperatures are about on a par with 1940. For 2008, the Almanac hired a new climatologist, Joe D’Aleo, who says the declining sunspots and the cool phase of the Pacific Ocean predict 25-30 years of cooler temperatures for the planet.

You could potentially sail, kayak or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice . . . is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.” Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs, June, 2008.

Soon after this prediction, a huge Russian icebreaker got trapped in the thick ice of the Northwest Passage for a full week. The Arctic ice hadn’t melted in 2007, it got blown

into warmer southern waters. Now it’s back. (Reference)

Remember too the Arctic has its own 70-year climate cycle. Polish climatologist Rajmund Przbylak says “the highest temperatures since the beginning of instrumental observation occurred clearly in the 1930s” based on more than 40 Arctic temperature stations.

(This uneducated prediction may have been the catalyst for Lewis Pugh and his absurd kayak stunt that failed miserably – Anthony)

“Australia’s Cities Will Run Out of Drinking Water Due to Global Warming.”

Tim Flannery was named Australia’s Man of the Year in 2007-for predicting that Australian cities will run out of water. He predicted Perth would become the “first 21st century ghost city,’ and that Sydney would be out of water by 2007. Today however, Australia’s city reservoirs are amply filled. Andrew Bolt of the Melbourne Herald-Sun reminds us Australia is truly a land of long droughts and flooding rains.

Hurricane Effects Will Only Get Worse.” Live Science, September 19, 2008.

So wrote the on-line tech website Live Science, but the number of Atlantic hurricanes 2006-2008 has been 22 percent below average, with insured losses more than 50 percent below average. The British Navy recorded more than twice as many major land-falling Caribbean hurricanes in the last part of the Little Ice Age (1700-1850) as during the much-warmer last half of the 20th century.

Corals will become increasingly rare on reef systems.” Dr. Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, head of Queensland University (Australia) marine studies.

In 2006, Dr. Hoegh-Guldberg warned that high temperatures might kill 30-40 percent of the coral on the Great Barrier Reef “within a month.” In 2007, he said global warming temperatures were bleaching [potentially killing] the reef.

But, in 2008, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network said climate change had not damaged the “well-managed” reef in the four years since its last report. Veteran diver Ben Cropp said that in 50 years he’d seen no heat damage to the reef at all. “The only change I’ve seen has been the result of over-fishing, pollution, too many tourists or people dropping anchors on the reef,” he said.

No More Skiing? “Climate Change and Aspen,” Aspen, CO city-funded study, June, 2007.

Aspen’s study predicted global warming would change the climate to resemble hot, dry Amarillo, Texas. But in 2008, European ski resorts opened a month early, after Switzerland recorded more October snow than ever before. Would-be skiers in Aspen had lots of winter snow-but a chill factor of 18 below zero F. kept them at their fireplaces instead of on the slopes.


Predictions of 25-30 year cooling due to Pacific Decadal Oscillation:  Scafetta and West, 2006, “Phenomenological Solar Signature in 400 Years of Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Temperature Record,” Geophysical Research Letters.

Arctic Warmer in the 1930s:  R. Przybylak, 2000, “Temporal and Spatial Variation of Surface Air Temperature over the Period of Instrumental Observation in the Arctic,” International Journal of Climatology 20.

British Navy records of Caribbean hurricanes 1700-1850:  J.B. Elsner et al., 2000, “Spatial Variations in Major U.S. Hurricane Activity,” Journal of Climate 13.

Predictions of coral loss:  Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science, Vol. 318, 2007. Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2008, issued by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, Nov., 2008.

Aspen climate change study:  Climate Change and Aspen: An Assessment of Potential Impacts and Responses, Aspen Global Change Institute, June, 2007.

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Dennis T. Avery, is a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute in Washington.  Dennis is the Director for Global Food Issues ([url=][/url]). He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State.


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These may have been the worst of all the global warming predictions, but the average person still swallowed them hook, line and sinker.
If they’d been reading this site they would have known better.


Here is my prediction for 2009. As the evidence for man-made global warming becomes less and less reliable and valid, the predications of dire consequences for mankind due to GW will increase exponentially and become more and more absurd. I admit this is not really a predication but just a statement of fact. More akin to predicating that the sun will come up tomorrow.

Rick W

Anthony, speaking of Al Gore’s prediction, any comment on this year’s arctic sea ice extent? This fall it looked like we were going to be well above average, but its dropped off recently.

I have looked up the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, and I can’t find them saying the Great Barrier Reef is pretty much unchanged in the last 4 years. Of course, I figure it is, but I also don’t see the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network admitting it. So I am guessing that this information is buried somewhere and you have to be “Holmes” to find it. Anybody???????


I have been away over Christmas so maybe this question has been answered. What caused the huge spike in the unfiltered data on the ice-extent graph at Arctic ROS sea area and extent graphs in December 2008. Was it due to sensor malfunctions?
It regards to predictions, it might be a good time to make up a list of the predictions from 2000 about the climate over the next ten years for a end of year story next year. The worst of them might get disappeared from the net before next December.
Also an apology for misreading the caption on your weather station story of 12/25/08.


I believe people like this are called “Reverse Cassandras”. They always predict disaster, it never happens, but everyone believes them.

PS I wrote this who is in charge of something or other at the global Coral Reef Monitoring Network. I guess I will see if he confirms or denies.


Disagree with you there, Smokey. The colder weather is having an impact on the average person’s viewpoints on all of this.
I’ve stumbled upon a number of letters to the editor lately from across the country, and I’m encouraged from what I’ve read. Average people are starting to question what they’re being fed about global warming. They’ve been told time & time again we were at a tipping point, if not beyond it, and yet the weather where they live doesn’t seem to correlate. Each of the readers were writing in response to an article that claimed the planet was warming. It’s warmed my heart to read such letters, if you’ll pardon the pun.
That story about skiing in Colorado was released on the same day they were experiencing record cold. The comments at the bottom of the article were quite hilarious.
Local weather events may be anecdotal evidence, but it makes average people stop & think. And from what I’ve read recently, at least some of them are starting to ask questions.


Based on a growing La Nina and continued sunspot inactivity, I think 2009 will be on par with 2008, if not cooler.
2008 will be the year man-induced global warming died.

David L. Hagen

Congratulations on making the ”
2008 Weblog Awards Finalists in “Best Science Blog”, along with Climate Audit.
Heads up everyone Voting begins January 5, 2009

Even though there is mounting evidence against man made global warming and more and more scientists are becoming confident to speak out about the theory, I would anticipate a major battle in Congress in early to mid 2008 when the Obama appointees that oversee environmental legislation, and who have a reputation for stong activism, propose strong legislation to control CO2 emissions.
It is not all about science that drives these people. Its about taxation, controlling development, environmentalism, reducing stress on the earth caused my mankind (sic), population control, the desire for control itself, you name it. These are powerful attractions and they are not about to be deterred from gaining it. They have even created their own hedge, by renaming their theory climate change. If they admit there is cooling it is because the cooling is caused by warming (but warming is never caused by cooling). Then they will say, we should move foward anyway with CO2 controls so as to insure we don’t have a problem, just in case. And if the rest of the world doesnt cooperate and have controls on their CO2 emissions (India and China) we should move ahead anyway and be a leader, set the example. Its not right for the USA, which contributes 25% of the CO2 emissions, to ruin the climate (we have too much wealth and we need to share it with the other “citizens of the world”).
The bottom line is that cooling is much worse for mankind than warming, if you had a choice, mostly due to lower crop yields (which are somewhat offset by higher CO2 concentrations that cause plants to grow faster and be more draught tolerant.)
Bottom line, there will be an epic battle in Congress in the coming months and I am not confident that this can be easily stopped. It will take a determined effort, but fortunately, the voice of reason is gathering strenth. We must prepare.


The BBC have the opposite view regarding hurricanes and climatic disasters.
The report segues rather neatly between insurance to climate, water vapour and finally into “stop the CO2!”
I would love to know how CO2 caused the China earthquake.


Slightly off topic, but I can’t seem to find a way to contact Anthony directly with this very interesting correlation, and a very nice prediction:
In the Netherlands, whenever conditions permit, a long-distance ice skating race is held in the north of the country, called the “Elfstedentocht” (Eleven-towns-tour). It is almost 200 km long, and is extremely popular with the country. Of course, the fact that we have not had one for 11 years has been blamed on Gorebull Warming. But, if one takes a graph of the sunspot cycle and plots when the 15 races have been held, eleven of them have been held at or near solar minimum, with three of the remaining four being in the weak solar cycle is 14, 15, and 16. Given that we are at solar minimum now, and that it is absolutely freezing outside at the moment, it looks rather likely that we will get one shortly! A good prediction for you!
I will be very grateful if someone who is more computer literate than me could plot the dates on which the event has been held on a graph of the sunspot number index. I have done it by hand, but it won’t look very good when scanned. The dates of the event are:
1909, 1912, 1917, 1929, 1933, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1947, 1954, 1956, 1963, 1985, 1986, 1997.
Since there is such a strong coincidence between solar minima and the Elfstedentocht, one might be tempted to conclude that the sun has a major controlling role in the climate…. Inconceivable!


I’d disagree that Perth’s reservoirs are amply filled – we got very little rain in August leaving us with about the same amount in the dams as last year. And the Murray River is still way below historial flow levels.

Bill Marsh

According to NSIDC there was an abrupt change in wind patterns that compacted the ice. Also there seems to be some data problems that they have acknowledged, but haven’t figured out what to do with yet. Anthony addressed in this post
It does appear odd to me that the ice extent has changed from about 400,000 Km more than 2007 in mid-December to run parallel to the 2007 extent almost exactly for the last week or more. Whenever I see something like that I suspect data problems. It could be accurate, but I think that unlikely.


James, perhaps you’d like to go over to Warwick Hughes’ blog and get some info on Perth rain catchment:
I see no problem…

Patrick Henry

Professor Mark Williams at the University of Colorado, forecast the demise of the Aspen ski industry to inadequate snow, the week before they broke their December snow record.

Dodgy Geezer

“Anthony, speaking of Al Gore’s prediction, any comment on this year’s arctic sea ice extent? This fall it looked like we were going to be well above average, but its dropped off recently….”
I also would welcome some investigation into this considerable variation of the ice-extent graphs. I have been told that:
1 – this is due to warmer ocean currents diverting towards the Arctic
2 – this is not an unusual variation at all
3 – this is due to high winds packing the ice into smaller areas
but no one seems to be able to refer to any current research….

Dodgy Geezer

“..(This uneducated prediction may have been the catalyst for Lewis Pugh and his absurd kayak stunt that failed miserably – Anthony)..”
That comment prompted me to take a look at Mr Pugh’s web page.
ALL comments for ALL sections have now been deleted. Something tells me that many other people have been making their feelings known…….

I predict that in 2009
[science fantasy] we’ll start hearing more about the interplay of the Earth’s magnetic field and the solar wind and related from the Sun. While the magnetic field interplay may not contribute anything to the solar forcing, we will see new models discussing atmospheric ablation and upper atmospheric heat flow due to changes in the shape of Earth’s magnetosphere. This will factor in to heat loss in polar regions during times of a quiet sun. Quantifying auroral expressions for polar warming/cooling scenarios will become almost as popular as watching for sunspots.
[/science fantasy]
I also predict more predictions.

The pages you pointed to show that 2008 is close to average in amount of rainfall and the storage graph shows 2008 to have the second highest year end yield in terms of amount of rain since 2001 [beginning at the end of August].

Pierre Gosselin

So I hereby induct the following into the
1. Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine
2. Tim Flannery
3. Dr. Hans Hoegh-Guldberg
Who now have the honour of joining other great Charlatans like Al Gore, Michael Mann, James Hansen, Sir Nicolas Stern, Stefan Ramstorf, Gavin Schmidt and Rajendra Pachauri

April E. Coggins

Since global warming and climate change have never been the real reason for the leftist power grab, disproving global warming will not stop them. They have already changed their rhetoric to “energy conservation” and “sustainable energy sources.” Never mind that their energy ideas will take more energy, man hours and money to produce far less energy than our current sources. The leftists do not want our current system of several independently owned energy companies, they want a nationalized, government controlled energy grid. The U.S. depends on cheap, plentiful energy and the leftists want to control both the money and the political power that would come from controlling our energy. Everything we do will be with the permission of the government. Sadly, America seems to have lost their taste for individual freedom.
Here are a couple of links that should alarm people:
(especially the last two paragraphs)
From Obama’s energy and climate czarina:

Steve Keohane

The town of Aspen, CO has too many people with too much time on their hands. In either of the two daily papers is a constant litany of exagerated AGW concerns. Another article, after several previous, regarding a natural gas hearth on the mall that emits nine pounds of carbon a year, and is the source of much debate and controversy. This is supposedly 5% of the emissions from a cow, far less than the machinery for moving skiers up mountains or almost any endeavor requiring energy. Yet the city counsel can debate this for hours, ad nauseum. We can thank the hysterical global warming crowd for this kind of ineffectual focus while there are real world issues to deal with.

Jumping the gun

“Entire north polar ice cap will be gone in 5 years”
We should wait five years before we say it isn’t going to happen.

Bruce Cobb

The 2009 ICCC to be held March 8-10 in New York with some 1,000 scientists and experts attending (double last years’), with a great deal of science discussed will be a huge success, with nary a peep or two about it in the MSM, unless to try to diminish and mock it.
On the other hand, the 2009 UN Climate Conference to be held Nov. 30-Dec. 11 in Copenhagen, with some 8,000 governmental representatives, NGOs, journalists, and others, with a great deal of political wrangling amid pseudoscientific blather will produce Kyoto II, or the “Copenhagen Protocol”, which will be trumpeted worldwide as a huge success overall, especially since the U.S., the last holdout will sign on to it. Naturally, the agreements will not be “nearly enough” to stop climate change, but will be “a good start”.
Meanwhile, the climate will continue to cool, and AGWers will continue to say “it’s just weather”, or “natural variation” or “noise” temporarily overcoming the underlying and potentially disasterous AGW.

D Werme

The Elfstedentocht may not be the best proxy. I was told by a Dutch speed skating coach that some power plants discharge warm water into the canal systems making them less likely to freeze.
I have been told the 2014 Olympics did not go to Austraia because there will be less and less snow in the Alps. I’ll be watching…they sure have a nice dump this year

John Laidlaw

“We should wait five years before we say it isn’t going to happen.”
– Jumping the gun
I absolutely agree. As long as it’s just waiting and not pre-emptively trying to change things which are showing little if any signs of needing fixing, even if we *were* able to influence them strongly enough.


“2008 will be the hottest year in a century”

Maybe it will be true after 100 more years.

Oh, who the hell are you going to believe? People who measure snowfalls and temperatures, or folks who make up climate models to run on large mainframes?
If it comes down to reality versus theory, you should go with theory every time, even if it bears no resemblance to what’s actually going on! The computer is never wrnog!


Don’t worry about cooling, the UK Met Office (and they are good at predicting, aren’t they?….well, aren’t they?) have just put out the following:
“2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.
According to climate scientists at the Met Office and the University of East Anglia the global temperature is forecast to be more than 0.4 °C above the long-term average. This would make 2009 warmer than the year just gone and the warmest since 2005.”
See the rest of this strange piece at:

P Folkens

Jumping the gun (08:41:08) :
“Entire north polar ice cap will be gone in 5 years”-Anthony
We should wait five years before we say it isn’t going to happen.
Jump: no need to wait. In 1988 Hansen predicted a 1.2°C temp rise in 20 years; enough to have an ice-free Arctic passage for at least part of the year. The 2008 data showed around a 0.2°C rise and no Arctic passage. Several Arctic cruises to the North Pole and the Pugh kayak stunt (among others) were all planned based on predictions of ice-free passages in the Arctic made in between 2000 and 2007. Not only did it not occur, but the notion failed so badly that it turned embarrassing for all who proclaimed they would demonstrate to the world the effects of global warming.
We could wait another five years, but the AGW wonks won’t. They are rushing faster and faster to get their programs codified and forced on all of us. They say it is an urgency is necessary to avoid the “tipping points,” but I think the upper thinkers of the group realize it really is cooling. If they can get their programs in place under this urgency, perhaps they can claim their programs caused the cooling. Of course, the question remains: will they take responsibility for the negative effects of cooling, such as deaths due to cold, starvation caused by reduced agricultural productivity, etc.?

Off topic, but:
What has been going on with NSIDC’S data?
First, we had the random adjustment that completed altered history since the ice minimum. Then, we had no ice growth until it met the 1979-2000 average. Now, it is perfectly mimicing the average. Watts up wth that?


Anonymoose, LOL


I think most of the Alarmists have learnt thier lesson; there won’t be very many predictions of doom for 2009 (Of course, NOAA and Hadley will most certainly work up some statistical wonders to stir the pot). At least for now look for more “studies” that push Doomsday out 50-100 years, prove that AGW is only hidden but will rear its ugly head soon, or continued obsession with artic ice, species extinction and other such abstractions. There should also be the seasonal Alarmists studies that follow the beginnings of summer (regional heat waves and localized droughts. floods, severe weather).
Of course, one cannot discount the upcoming legislative session(s). I would not be at all shocked to see a well timed “Alarmist study” to coincide with the Senate’s vote on upcoming AGW legislation. As a matter of fact, I’m sure the floor vote will be timed to occur in mid-late August in the hopes the votes will be taken during a blistering Beltway heatwave. NOAA and NASA will surely concoct the summer of 2009 as the hottest summer since 1850.

Pierre Gosselin
Pierre Gosselin

The CNN clip posted at skeptic is worth watching.


As an Amarilloan, I wonder how an alpine town at 8,200 feet is supposed to be magically transformed into the same climate as a Great Plains town at 3,000 feet? Does global warming dissolve mountains or something? There is nothing between Amarillo and Canada but tumble weeds and barbed wired fences, same thing South the Gulf of Mexico. What is Aspen supposed to start to get black dusters? Tornadoes? 100mph straight line winds? Softball sized hail?
Or maybe I am reading the thing wrong and Amarillo is going to become the next hot spot for the world’s rich and famous. I bet that’s it!

C Lampert

“Don’t worry about cooling, the UK Met Office (and they are good at predicting, aren’t they?….well, aren’t they?) have just put out the following:
“2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.”
As much as a national embarrasment Hansen and NASA’s AGW fear-mongering are, the UK Met Office is equally embarrasing. I read that the UK is in for some of its coldest weather in decades. I wonder if UK Met predicted that.


A few days before Christmas the news story was Global warming will kill off Christmas trees. I don’t know why I am constantly amazed at how low they go but I am. This story was started by a politician. Here’s a link…
“Some studies have shown that continued global warming will adversely affect the optimum climate conditions in North Carolina for Fraser firs. A rise in average global temperatures would force the Fraser Fir’s natural climate northward and out of North Carolina. Rising temperatures also increase pest control problems and disease longevity.”


I’ve read supposedly learned studies that indicate the average person looks ahead only two weeks — and forgets a lot of the past. For those people, the individual “scare stories” will be forgotten and the fact they did not come true will be “unnoticed”.
What will remain, though, is the emotional impact. Having heard global warming is destroying the earth for a long time, they will believe it — its called brainwashing.
So, I am not at all optimistic that “mere facts” will have any significant impact on the general populace — until the national news and entertainment media “gets on board”.
Unfortunately, that media have already boarded the “other train” (the AGW train) and are heading in the opposite direction. They have no incentive to “jump that train”, I think. In fact, most media being of liberal bent, the “powers that be” probably cannot imagine they picked the wrong train.

Bill P

“Alarmists have learnt their lesson; there won’t be very many predictions of doom for 2009…”
Au contraire, mon ami. I predict that New Orleans’ lower ninth ward will be rebuilt and repopulated in time to be swept away by another hurricane. This will reinforce what the consensus of smart people already knew, that global warming problems are man made.,,20053387,00.html

Variations in weather (according to the alarmists) ‘prove’ their agenda. We must be a very vocal opposition against the incoming U.S. administration in their upcoming attempts to drive more $$$ toward the AGW band of thieves.
Thanks for your work Anthony…have posted this link on my site.

For Grant Hodges; I think this is the article you want to find.,25197,24811996-11949,00.html
Yes, non hysterical articles about the environment do tend to be rare, don’t they? World not ending? No one doomed? It’s not newsworthy.

I predict in 2009 Al Gore will continue to make millions on global warming while refusing to debate skeptics.


Hey look – the Green Movement finally acknowledges that it is a religion – and here’s its official Bible:


I would think the mid troposphere warming predicted by the AGW modelers would weaken storms by reducing convection. It the air aloft is warmer, wouldn’t that act to reduce convection? And I believe AGW’s greatest impact in the models for increasing average temperature comes from increasing nighttime lows more than increasing daytime highs.
Because CO2 in the atmosphere would work both ways, warming from heat radiated from Earth *and* warming from IR solar radiation, it would act to block solar IR from reaching the surface in the range of frequency where it is opaque to IR. So I would expect to see a moderation of high temperatures and an increase in low temperatures. Examples of this can be seen with water vapor where it might get to 110F in Phoenix but only in the low 90’s in Miami but Phoenix might drop to 60F at night while Miami might remain in the 80’s.
Greenhouse gasses should moderate the extremes of temperature and heating aloft should put a damper on convection which I would expect to moderate major storm activity, not enhance it. But I am not a weather man.

Tom (06:17:00) saith: “Here is my prediction for 2009. As the evidence for man-made global warming becomes less and less reliable and valid, the predications of dire consequences for mankind due to GW will increase exponentially and become more and more absurd. I admit this is not really a prediction but just a statement of fact. More akin to predicting that the sun will come up tomorrow.”
Well, yes, Tom, and it is even more like betting on a horse race after it’s over. (Except that in the case of a horse race, there are entire horses, which is not so for AGW advocates.)

Tim F

I’ve always thought the “one of the 10 warmest years on record” argument was lame. I’m sure the 2008 S&P 500 average close is among the 10 highest on record, but nobody is saying that the stock market is going up.


Worth keeping an eye on, though nothing unusual yet, Yellowstone is having another earthquake storm: