I know. This sounds like a plot of a 1950’s scifi movie. But it is real. From my view, our localized corner of the solar system is now different than it used to be and changes in the magnetic interactions are evident everywhere. First we have the interplanetary magnetic field that took an abrupt dive in October 2005 and has not recovered since and remains at very low level:
click for a larger image
Then we have the recent discovery that the ionosphere has dropped in altitude to unexpected and unexplained low levels.
We have a solar cycle 24 (driven by the solar magnetic dynamo) which can’t seem to get out of the starting gate, being a year late with forecasts for activity from it being revised again and again.
And finally we have this, this discovery that Earth’s magnetic field can be ripped open and our atmosphere laid bare to the solar wind, much like Mars.
Magnetism is underrated in the grand scheme of things, in my opinion. We’d do well to pay more attention to magnetic trends in our corner of the universe and what effects it has on Earthly climate. – Anthony
From NASA News (h/t to Geoff Sharp)
Dec. 16, 2008: NASA’s five THEMIS spacecraft have discovered a breach in Earth’s magnetic field ten times larger than anything previously thought to exist. Solar wind can flow in through the opening to “load up” the magnetosphere for powerful geomagnetic storms. But the breach itself is not the biggest surprise. Researchers are even more amazed at the strange and unexpected way it forms, overturning long-held ideas of space physics.
“At first I didn’t believe it,” says THEMIS project scientist David Sibeck of the Goddard Space Flight Center. “This finding fundamentally alters our understanding of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction.”
The magnetosphere is a bubble of magnetism that surrounds Earth and protects us from solar wind. Exploring the bubble is a key goal of the THEMIS mission, launched in February 2007. The big discovery came on June 3, 2007, when the five probes serendipitously flew through the breach just as it was opening. Onboard sensors recorded a torrent of solar wind particles streaming into the magnetosphere, signaling an event of unexpected size and importance.
Right: One of the THEMIS probes exploring the space around Earth, an artist’s concept. [more]
“The opening was huge—four times wider than Earth itself,” says Wenhui Li, a space physicist at the University of New Hampshire who has been analyzing the data. Li’s colleague Jimmy Raeder, also of New Hampshire, says “1027 particles per second were flowing into the magnetosphere—that’s a 1 followed by 27 zeros. This kind of influx is an order of magnitude greater than what we thought was possible.”
The event began with little warning when a gentle gust of solar wind delivered a bundle of magnetic fields from the Sun to Earth. Like an octopus wrapping its tentacles around a big clam, solar magnetic fields draped themselves around the magnetosphere and cracked it open. The cracking was accomplished by means of a process called “magnetic reconnection.” High above Earth’s poles, solar and terrestrial magnetic fields linked up (reconnected) to form conduits for solar wind. Conduits over the Arctic and Antarctic quickly expanded; within minutes they overlapped over Earth’s equator to create the biggest magnetic breach ever recorded by Earth-orbiting spacecraft.
Above: A computer model of solar wind flowing around Earth’s magnetic field on June 3, 2007. Background colors represent solar wind density; red is high density, blue is low. Solid black lines trace the outer boundaries of Earth’s magnetic field. Note the layer of relatively dense material beneath the tips of the white arrows; that is solar wind entering Earth’s magnetic field through the breach. Credit: Jimmy Raeder/UNH. [larger image]
The size of the breach took researchers by surprise. “We’ve seen things like this before,” says Raeder, “but never on such a large scale. The entire day-side of the magnetosphere was open to the solar wind.”
The circumstances were even more surprising. Space physicists have long believed that holes in Earth’s magnetosphere open only in response to solar magnetic fields that point south. The great breach of June 2007, however, opened in response to a solar magnetic field that pointed north.
“To the lay person, this may sound like a quibble, but to a space physicist, it is almost seismic,” says Sibeck. “When I tell my colleagues, most react with skepticism, as if I’m trying to convince them that the sun rises in the west.”
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Here is why they can’t believe their ears: The solar wind presses against Earth’s magnetosphere almost directly above the equator where our planet’s magnetic field points north. Suppose a bundle of solar magnetism comes along, and it points north, too. The two fields should reinforce one another, strengthening Earth’s magnetic defenses and slamming the door shut on the solar wind. In the language of space physics, a north-pointing solar magnetic field is called a “northern IMF” and it is synonymous with shields up!
“So, you can imagine our surprise when a northern IMF came along and shields went down instead,” says Sibeck. “This completely overturns our understanding of things.”
Northern IMF events don’t actually trigger geomagnetic storms, notes Raeder, but they do set the stage for storms by loading the magnetosphere with plasma. A loaded magnetosphere is primed for auroras, power outages, and other disturbances that can result when, say, a CME (coronal mass ejection) hits.
The years ahead could be especially lively. Raeder explains: “We’re entering Solar Cycle 24. For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway. It’s the perfect sequence for a really big event.”
Sibeck agrees. “This could result in stronger geomagnetic storms than we have seen in many years.”
For more information about the THEMIS mission, visit http://nasa.gov/themis
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Robert Bateman (09:57:58) :
Or tell us that it is going to be cold for the next 15 years so change your crops & planting habits so you don’t perish.
The mag field effects will have no significant effect other than maybe some nice lights in the sky, but if you are really worried anyway:
The Old Farmers Almanac does a very good job of getting long range weather forecasts right for farmers. If you are really worried about planting habits, I’d suggest getting a subscription. They employ good weathermen. (of all genders…)
IMHO it will be cold, probably for the next 20 to 30 years, based on the PDO flip (which I think is due to a solar change, but the cause is not so important to planting decisions).
I am also fairly sure that no one needs to perish from a cold phase. Even if it were a dire crop failure episode, the ones who ought to perish are cows, pigs, and chickens. Modern western societies eat a lot of meat. Meat takes about 10 pounds of grain to make a pound of meat (for cows) to 3 pounds / pound (chickens and pigs). That pound of meat is ‘wet’, meaning 95% water, while the grain is ‘dry’ meaning 10% water. We can simply not eat animals and instead eat their food and take a 60% to 90% cut in crop production. If we will do that or not is a different question…
The folks with an issue will be sub-saharan Africa and poor Asia…
Sidebar: If you are really worried about food supplies, go get a few 1/2 gallon canning jars at your local hardware store or Wal Mart. Fill them with lentils, white rice, and noodles, and have a couple of sugar and salt in proportion. Dry instant potatoes, ketchup, and powdered milk also keep well. Store a gallon jug of vegetable oil in your fridge. Having lentil sprouts, boiled rice, and noodles is not exciting, but it will keep you alive. Include a bottle of vitamin pills.
The jars store well in a box with crumpled newspaper around them. Mine have survived a Richter 7.2 quake. It keeps for about 10 years with some decrease in quality. You need about 1 lb dry per person per day. A quart jar of seeds in the freezer will keep for decades. Leafy greens provide the vitamins you need when the pills run out. Kale grows under all conditions including light snow…
Yes, this is paranoid. No, I don’t care. I grew up in a Mormon town and appreciate what they taught me. Someday a Richter 8 will hit, or the big rock from space will fall or Yellowstone will blow up or whatever will happen… For most folks, water is the problem anyway. I can go months without calories given my pudge level, but what I really need is a water supply… nobody ever asks about water…
Me (10:05:08) :
And I guess I’m still supposed to believe that humans went through all that and went to the moon and back with no problems, physically or technically, on the first try, right?
Well, no. There were problems, lots of them. They were ‘worked through’. We almost lost Apollo 13 and they only made it back by luck, skill, and guts, after a hardware failure.
Armstrong was seconds away from an abort / fuel gone, when he landed. Very near catastrophe after flying over an unexpected boulder field burning fuel they could not spare. He made a judgment call and won. Could have been ‘one more rock’ in the way and an abort call with different history.
The time these flights happened was during a low solar flare interval. If a major flare had happened when they were on the moon or in transit, we would have a nice memorial for them somewhere. Roll dice, live or die.
And it wasn’t done in one try. There were many small steps, including the whole Gemini series. Do not forget those who died on the pad when we learned that 100% oxygen was a Bad Idea… The path to the moon was paved in the blood and sweat of many brave folks. Do not belittle them with doubt.
Anyone with a laser & telescope can shoot a beam at the reflector they left behind and confirm that people were there…
Steve Keohane wrote:
Also, the magnetic north has moved about 685 miles in the last 150 years, precession describes a circle of 13-15K miles (off the top of my head) in 26K years, 4.5 vs. ~.5 miles per year.
I believe precession refers to the shift in the perceived North Star due to the wobbling of the Earth’s axis, not the physical location of the magnetic north pole. The magnetic north pole has been drifting north at an average speed of 10 to 40 km per year.
Earth’s Inconstant Magnetic Field
Harold,
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/dip-and-rebound-part-2.html
Solar cannot explain this.
Not to give our infantile species false credit… but has anyone ever heard of the STS-75 tether incident?
The primary objective of STS-75 is to carry the Tethered Satellite System Reflight (TSS-1R) into orbit and to deploy it spaceward on a conducting tether. The mission will also fly the United States Microgravity Payload (USMP-3) designed to investigate materials science and condensed matter physics.
The TSS-1R mission is a reflight of TSS-1 which was flown onboard Space Shuttle Atlantis on STS-46 in July/August of 1992. During that flight, the tether was deployed a distance of 860 feet. STS-75 mission scientist hope to deploy the tether to a distance of over 12 miles (20.7km).
The Tether Satellite System will circle the Earth at an altitude of 296 kilometers which will place the tether system within the rarefied electrically charged layer of the atmosphere known as the ionosphere. The conducting tether will generate high voltage and electrical currents as it moves through the ionosphere across the magnetic field lines of the earth. Scientists will be able to learn more about the electrodynamics of a conducting tether system to deepen our understanding of physical processes in the near-Earth space environment. These studies will help provide explanations for events such as the formation and behavior of comet tails and bursts of radio “noise” detected from other planets.
Here is a spectacular nasa video of the STS-75 collecting electricity from the ionosphere
http://tinyurl.com/4qynav
I wonder whats going on up there?
Gore said. “We live in a world where what used to be called propaganda now has a major role to play in shaping public opinion.”
Well shut my mouth! Gore has said something that I agree with and that is clearly the truth… And he is the propagandist…
This is strange. I recall myself reading about how a south-north breach could leave satellites open to coronal mass ejections. In effect the satellites can be killed, electrically (and I think it affects the atmosphere, making it bulge and so causing drag on their orbits too – effectively reducing their lifespan or even causing re-entry – but I may recall wrongly). But a north-north event, as is said above, was not considered a problem for the reasons said.
Credit crunch. Predictions of a depression and deflationary spiral. Warnings that avian flu may mutate into a flu pandemic. New variant cjd case affecting someone with a different gene to all previous cases. And now this. *Sigh* I hope my Jehova’s Witness neighbour doesn’t hear about this, or I’ll get another lecture on how the world is about to end.
last seen magnetic north was marching at a pretty steady pace twards russia. However I havent seen a map of the progress past 2000. Magnetic flip doesnt mean the world has to end or even be thrown into chaos. It hasnt before.. why should it start now.
Secondly, the Mayan calendar doesnt stop, it starts over:) Why? Only the Mayan’s know for sure. PS.. the consensus isnt really settled on when that happens either.
Third, I wonder if the folks who study the lava flow for magnetic north took into consideration the position of the continental plate when the lava was flowing?
and finally for the person who posted: ” I am really scared though…thinking of a possible massive global destruction …who’s not afraid to die? I am afraid …but if it were to happen ..i hope it will be quick. ”
Growing up in the cold war, you sort of get hardened to massive global destruction scenerios. Short of the sun exploding there will be life on Earth. You cannot worry about all the ways we could die, just live the best you can and if it happens it happens. But… keep in mind, just because we’ve not seen something in the “recorded history” of the space age, doesnt mean that much. We know the sun has interactions with our earth, to consider a quiet sun to be the same as an active sun seems to be the downfall of the current science. We tend to examine things with our sences. Is it warmer, is it brighter, is it louder… the human race has lost its primal sences somewhere in that big part of the brain we dont use:) Don’t worry, be happy! Its either that or go insane.
That press release sounds like something from a newspaper’s story archives from the early 20th century.
FWIW, if the sun continue its quiet ways and shows no spots today, it will have tied with 1912 for total number of spotless days. And any spotless days after today will place this year in second place behind 1913.
Leif,
Thanks for the reference of Kristjansson’s paper.
In their concluding remark Kristjansson et al. say the following:
“For the ongoing global warming, however, the role of galactic cosmic
rays would be expected to be negligible, considering the
fact that the cosmic ray flux has not changed over the last
few decades – apart from the 11-year cycle (Lockwood and
Fr¨ohlich, 2007).”
First of all one has to realize that their work was limited to the Southern Hemisphere. So if indeed the cosmic ray flux varied little over the last few decades on the one hand and no warming in the Southern Hemisphere over the same period has been observed on the other (depending on whether we consider the lower-, mid- or upper-troposphere), wouldn’t their results (somewhat) support or at least not falsify Svensmark’s hypothesis?
Since the bulk of the recent global warming is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere shouldn’t we rather look for causes beyond man made CO2 or cosmic ray induced mechanisms?
I wonder if this has an effect on electro-magnetic fields?
Don’t delude yourself, this isn’t ‘parody’ but sarcasm, and not good quality sarcasm at that. To get a feel for sarcasm read the top 20 comments on this post, some gems there.
Gore has become very good at using lies to intimidate people.
He is truly pathological, in the mid-1930’s German sense of the word.
He has his ‘truth’. He has industry and insiders sending him large sums of money.
He has defined the conversation in the public square.
He has his elusive and pernicious conspiratorial ‘enemy’, that he and his pals darkly hint at ‘dealing with’.
Too bad that the climate simply declines to cooperate with him.
crosspatch (17:15:21) :
[…In the last ice age the Earth built up the ice caps slowly over a period of 100,000 years but lost nearly all of that ice in only a couple of hundred years.]
This simply isn’t true. It took 10,000 to 12,000 years for the Laurentide ice sheet in North America, for example, to melt away from the Wisconsin LGM 18-20kya until it’s final collapse ~8.2 kya. Too much ice, not enough heat.
******
Gorebull said:
Millions of people in China, which is on course to overtake the United States as the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases,
*****
Gorebull needs to update his info — China has already surpassed the US as the biggest CO2 producer.
If slightly warmer water introduces slightly more water vapor into the atmosphere, how does that result in increased droughts?
JAK (23:11:24) :
If we had been monitoring Earth’s Magnetosphere with the THEMIS Probe for the past Two Millennia alone, we might have witnessed such activity present itself MANY times over again.
The interplanetary magnetic field goes northward every few hours. In the past two millennia this breach has happened millions of times. In this graph http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html the red curve in the upper panel is the north-south part of the IMF. Every time the line goes above the dashed white line the IMF points north.
The cooling event at the turn of the 20th century does correspond, predictably, with sunspot number and aa index.
The fact that a few scientists have looked for “bursts” of cloud-making, and not found them, during Forbush events lasting just a couple of days does not disprove Svensmark’s work.
It may well be that it is prolonged drops in the solar wind, and increases in cosmic rays, over the course of weeks, months, years, and decades that produce the conditions required for widespread, prolonged cloud nucleation. Indeed, I suspect that this is the case.
Again, the Little Ice Age is not a problem without a solution, when one takes this point of view. Neither is much in the way of climate during the entire Holocene (and way, way, way before).
Two-part prediction: (1) Svensmark wins a Nobel Prize late in life. (2) The scientists disputing his findings fall into obscurity.
Maybe we will finally presence somethig interesting on this boring planet where humans like to regard themselves as distinct from animals, especially those humans who are predators …
see what I mean?
Harold Ambler
The cooling event at the turn of the 20th century does correspond, predictably, with sunspot number and aa index.
I’m not so sure. I looked at the link in your earlier post and the 3 ‘low’ (aa & sunspot) cycles immediately precede the big early 20th century warming period. In fact, it appears as though the warming starts during the 3rd cycle.
Dear Leif Svaalgard,
Into the composition of the energy incoming to Earth through that geomagnetic breach, could some kind of radiation affect to living beings? I know some emissions alter DNA chains. My question addresses the obvious omission in the article on the possibility of damage not only to satellites and communications but to climate and life. They focus their attention on harm to astronauts, satellites, etc. but they don’t devote a single word to “other” effects, but just like that: “some other effects”. Thanks in advance for your answer.
Oh good grief. Fox has a story on this today and are making it sound as if this is something new. What I have a problem with is this paragraph:
More vulnerable … than what? The implication is that we are going to be more vulnerable than we have been in the past. The truth is we are going to be more vulnerable than we THOUGHT we were, but no more or less vulnerable than we always have been.
This is the kind of “journalism” that causes things like global warming hysteria. Some truth with a dash of panic tossed in causes people to worry about things that are no different now than they always have been. So I can imagine what mitigation measures are going to need to be taken to “fix” this and how much of my hard earned they are going to extract for it.
Rule of thumb … if you see something the very first time you look for it or as soon as you are capable of seeing it, chances are very good that what you are seeing isn’t unique or uncommon. Chances are it has been there all along.
Shifts in our protective magnetic field have most certainly occurred before, as the article stated. What’s interesting to note is that the last MAJOR polar shift occurred about 10,000 years ago ~ coincidentally, about the same time Homo Sapien Sapien emerged. Mutations in genetic data caused by solar radiation are known to occur when the Earth’s defenses are weakened during these shifts.
*crosses fingers*
C’mon, new mutant powers! I’ve already made my costume, and I’ve even got a few names picked out…..
“This simply isn’t true. It took 10,000 to 12,000 years for the Laurentide ice sheet in North America, for example, to melt away from the Wisconsin LGM 18-20kya until it’s final collapse ~8.2 kya.”
Well, it depends greatly on location. And that is kind of the point. Buildup is slower and more even than the melting is. And we have only been in this interglacial for 10K to 12K years. Looking at data from GRIP (Greenland ice core), temperatures took a very abrupt step upward about 14K years ago. Then it appears that things cooled into the period known as the Younger Dryas, and finally took another abrupt spike up to present temperatures 11K to 12K ya. I still wonder if those abrupt changes weren’t changes in rotation axis responding to abrupt mass redistribution due to uneven melting.
It looks to me like the vast majority of melt on the NA continental land mass was pretty much complete fairly quickly after the onset of Holocene conditions. Warming doesn’t mean melting until the average annual temperature rises enough. Isotope proxies in ice cores can, for example, show 10K years of gradual warming (as GRIP does) but that won’t correspond to any reduction in ice until temperatures get above freezing. In fact, there is evidence that temperatures were warming as ice was making its final greatest advance. Warming temperatures could have increased snowfall resulting in increased glacial advance until temperatures finally spiked upwards above annual temperature of 0C. The warming shown on GRIP between 10K and 20K ya seem to correspond not to melting, but the period of maximum glacial advance.