I know. This sounds like a plot of a 1950’s scifi movie. But it is real. From my view, our localized corner of the solar system is now different than it used to be and changes in the magnetic interactions are evident everywhere. First we have the interplanetary magnetic field that took an abrupt dive in October 2005 and has not recovered since and remains at very low level:
click for a larger image
Then we have the recent discovery that the ionosphere has dropped in altitude to unexpected and unexplained low levels.
We have a solar cycle 24 (driven by the solar magnetic dynamo) which can’t seem to get out of the starting gate, being a year late with forecasts for activity from it being revised again and again.
And finally we have this, this discovery that Earth’s magnetic field can be ripped open and our atmosphere laid bare to the solar wind, much like Mars.
Magnetism is underrated in the grand scheme of things, in my opinion. We’d do well to pay more attention to magnetic trends in our corner of the universe and what effects it has on Earthly climate. – Anthony
From NASA News (h/t to Geoff Sharp)
Dec. 16, 2008: NASA’s five THEMIS spacecraft have discovered a breach in Earth’s magnetic field ten times larger than anything previously thought to exist. Solar wind can flow in through the opening to “load up” the magnetosphere for powerful geomagnetic storms. But the breach itself is not the biggest surprise. Researchers are even more amazed at the strange and unexpected way it forms, overturning long-held ideas of space physics.
“At first I didn’t believe it,” says THEMIS project scientist David Sibeck of the Goddard Space Flight Center. “This finding fundamentally alters our understanding of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction.”
The magnetosphere is a bubble of magnetism that surrounds Earth and protects us from solar wind. Exploring the bubble is a key goal of the THEMIS mission, launched in February 2007. The big discovery came on June 3, 2007, when the five probes serendipitously flew through the breach just as it was opening. Onboard sensors recorded a torrent of solar wind particles streaming into the magnetosphere, signaling an event of unexpected size and importance.
Right: One of the THEMIS probes exploring the space around Earth, an artist’s concept. [more]
“The opening was huge—four times wider than Earth itself,” says Wenhui Li, a space physicist at the University of New Hampshire who has been analyzing the data. Li’s colleague Jimmy Raeder, also of New Hampshire, says “1027 particles per second were flowing into the magnetosphere—that’s a 1 followed by 27 zeros. This kind of influx is an order of magnitude greater than what we thought was possible.”
The event began with little warning when a gentle gust of solar wind delivered a bundle of magnetic fields from the Sun to Earth. Like an octopus wrapping its tentacles around a big clam, solar magnetic fields draped themselves around the magnetosphere and cracked it open. The cracking was accomplished by means of a process called “magnetic reconnection.” High above Earth’s poles, solar and terrestrial magnetic fields linked up (reconnected) to form conduits for solar wind. Conduits over the Arctic and Antarctic quickly expanded; within minutes they overlapped over Earth’s equator to create the biggest magnetic breach ever recorded by Earth-orbiting spacecraft.
Above: A computer model of solar wind flowing around Earth’s magnetic field on June 3, 2007. Background colors represent solar wind density; red is high density, blue is low. Solid black lines trace the outer boundaries of Earth’s magnetic field. Note the layer of relatively dense material beneath the tips of the white arrows; that is solar wind entering Earth’s magnetic field through the breach. Credit: Jimmy Raeder/UNH. [larger image]
The size of the breach took researchers by surprise. “We’ve seen things like this before,” says Raeder, “but never on such a large scale. The entire day-side of the magnetosphere was open to the solar wind.”
The circumstances were even more surprising. Space physicists have long believed that holes in Earth’s magnetosphere open only in response to solar magnetic fields that point south. The great breach of June 2007, however, opened in response to a solar magnetic field that pointed north.
“To the lay person, this may sound like a quibble, but to a space physicist, it is almost seismic,” says Sibeck. “When I tell my colleagues, most react with skepticism, as if I’m trying to convince them that the sun rises in the west.”
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Here is why they can’t believe their ears: The solar wind presses against Earth’s magnetosphere almost directly above the equator where our planet’s magnetic field points north. Suppose a bundle of solar magnetism comes along, and it points north, too. The two fields should reinforce one another, strengthening Earth’s magnetic defenses and slamming the door shut on the solar wind. In the language of space physics, a north-pointing solar magnetic field is called a “northern IMF” and it is synonymous with shields up!
“So, you can imagine our surprise when a northern IMF came along and shields went down instead,” says Sibeck. “This completely overturns our understanding of things.”
Northern IMF events don’t actually trigger geomagnetic storms, notes Raeder, but they do set the stage for storms by loading the magnetosphere with plasma. A loaded magnetosphere is primed for auroras, power outages, and other disturbances that can result when, say, a CME (coronal mass ejection) hits.
The years ahead could be especially lively. Raeder explains: “We’re entering Solar Cycle 24. For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway. It’s the perfect sequence for a really big event.”
Sibeck agrees. “This could result in stronger geomagnetic storms than we have seen in many years.”
For more information about the THEMIS mission, visit http://nasa.gov/themis
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Could breach in the Earth’s magnetic field signal a new Maunder minimum?
NASA’s latest discovery of a breach in the Earth’s magnetic field is an indication that interactions between heliospheric current and planetary magnetospheres are of far greater degree than previously assumed. One important aspect of this particular situation is to find if there are similar breaches of Jupiter and Saturn’s magnetospheres. Already a huge and unusual Saturn aurora was observed. It is possible that similar effect (possibly in the invisible part of the spectrum) could be active in the Jupiter’s magnetosphere.
Why this could be important? For some time now, I have been suggesting that solar activity is modulated by a feedback from interactions between heliospheric current and planetary magnetospheres. http://www.vukcevic.co.uk solar current link
Equations show that combination of planetary orbital properties will produce a regular Dalton type minimum. Severity of such minimum will depend not only on the planetary magnetosphere effect, but also on temporary strength of local interstellar (galactic) magnetic field. Strong field will reduce volume of the heliosphere affecting interaction between heliospheric current and planetary magnetospheres. During Maunder minimum (back extrapolation shows that a Dalton type minimum was due) planetary effect was active as normal as C14 the records show.
(see diagram
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/1600-1700.gif
in red: equation as presented in
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk
link solar current (page3) and
http://xxx.lanl.gov/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0401/0401107.pdf
note that pre 1813 Sin instead Cos function is used).
There is no obvious reason from within the solar system, why the sunspot activity should shut down while a normal magnetic activity synchronous with sunspot cycle should continue. Therefore, I assume that the cause came from the outside of heliosphere, a significant change in strength of interstellar magnetic field coinciding with temporary minimum, result a Dalton was forced into the Maunder minimum.
When the galactic events subsided normal activity was resumed. It could be assumed that by1810 galactic field was weaker and consequently less effective.
Important factor in all this is that solar activity is heading for another Dalton type minimum around 2030-40. If strength of galactic magnetic field persists for next 10 to 20 years forthcoming Dalton could turn into a new 21st century’s Maunder.
Despite current scepticism regarding heliospheric current hypothesis, solar scientists should turn part of their attention towards observing events in the planetary magnetospheres, specifically Jupiter and Saturn’s, which may point towards significant future events.
The recent rapidly occurring cold snap in Northern American has killed 22 people in just the US. I don’t know the numbers for Canada. The numbers are predicted to double (and are likely underestimated) by the time this arctic blast goes away.
Jeff K wrote:
Since, if I recall correctly, the earth’s magnetic field is caused by the rotation of the inner iron core, why can’t the poles just drift over time, gradually shifting their positions to their opposite locations but during that time, keep their relative strength?
You might find this interesting reading:
In the News: Magnetic Flip
“We also know from studies of the magnetisation of minerals in ancient clay pots that the Earth’s magnetic field was approximately twice as strong in Roman times as it is now.”
Chris H (01:00:03) :
“That’s assuming the polarity reversals are real, and their ‘traces’ are not caused by some other (not yet understood!) phenomena…”
They are very real and thanks to them we could prove Alfred Wegener’s theory of continental drift. Sea floor spreading could be demonstrated by the polarity reversals in the ocean floor volcanics as they are symmetrically positioned with respect to the Mid Atlantic Ridge which separates diverging tectonic plates.
A small reminder.
Oymyakon, Yakutia, Russia
21:00 (local time) 17.12.2008.
Temp.: -55 C (-67 F)
Temp. eff.: -60 C (-76 F)
http://www.meteonovosti.ru/index1.php?code=50&value=24688
Regards
Sunspotless today. so how many more days before we pass 1912 and come in second? It has to be less than five, doesn’t it?
Why is this information only surfacing now if it happened in 07? Have I missed something or is it due to downloading all the raw satellite data & processing it that takes the time, or did it get buried under the paperwork? Just curious that’s all. Nothing doing on BBC Science & Environmant web, but then again this hallowed taxpayer funded august body is nolonger obliged to register a different opinion on many scientific matters as long as the consensus is there & the science is settled.
alexjc38:-) I’d opt for Climate “Instability”! It has all the right tone & sound to it, suggesting chaos, change, the climate was stable before, & that unpredictablity is the future! Perfect, one size fits all.
OT Mr Watts:-) I have often wondered about your two initials, AW, your middle name wouldn’t happen to begin with G per chance would it? We could sow a little “chaos” ourselves if so! “AGW suggests Global Warming may be natural after all”!
REPLY: Sorry no G’s – Anthony
Jeff K: Geologists have been measuring the past polarity and location of the magnetic poles for quite some time. Hot rock records the magnetic field at the time it cools. If the poles changed positions slowly, it would be in the record. If the field is generated by the motion of large amounts of material, sudden motions of that material would significantly affect the planet’s rotation — the poles of rotation would jerk around, and such motions are not in the geological record. And, fortunately, reversals don’t seem related to mass extinctions.
Hello everybody, i’m an italian boy that reading everyday this fantastic blog of big Anthony… sorry for my english…
Even if i’am off topic, I would remind you that came out of the update that GISS for November is 0.58, as in October … I want to hear a comment by Anthony and all of you, because to me it seems a bit exaggerated … Indeed Hadley for November was at +0.38 and +0.46 in reanalisi if not mistaken … Thanks to all
With all due respect to those concerned, with all the talk of justifying the expense of the THEMIS satellites, am I wrong in assuming you would rather they had not launched them? I find physics fascinating, and applaud whenever something such as this is made public. Money well spent IMHO, even if it merely confirmed accepted theory. If only we could launch some sort of box into space that could effectively predict climate!
Thanks for all the great reading folks!
Katherine, just wanted to add to your post that it was very warm on the planet during roman times. Correlation isn’t causation, I know, but I’m just sayin’ , …
Chris Schoneveld, would like to add to your post that Wegener was vilified for his theories on continental drift. I don’t think he was alive when he was proven correct. So much for open minded academia, …..
There have been many magnetic reversals during the millions of years human beings have been on the Earth with no apparent ill effects on them or other species.
Does it / will it effect the climate? Probably.
Relax and watch.
Figure it out.
Don’t panic.
David Ball (08:18:04) :
So much for open minded academia, …..
‘Academia’ or ‘learning centers’ in general are not supposed to be open minded. In fact, scientists are extremely conservative and do not run with just any scheme, unless it is supported by compelling evidence. But once such evidence is found or produced, science can turn on a dime and acceptance of a new idea can be very rapid. The ‘continental drift’ speculation became ‘plate tectonics’ fact virtually overnight in the 1960s. Evolution is another example, and General Relativity, and Big Bang Universe, etc.
Well- if the earth is a big magnet and we need earth’s magnetism to live, then it totally makes sense to use magnetic products at times of low magnetism as well as with EMF producing equipment. http://www.mynikken.net/joanspear
REPLY: Disrupt rotation? Not a chance, do the math, – Anthony
Not so fast now. Earth’s rotation is changing all the time, last flip coincidentally happened in 2004. The cause must be something big, why not magnetism. Now the rotation is decreasing, before 2004 (and most of the time since 1970) it was increasing.
Maybe this is what’s fliping the PDO. Now when the rotation is decreasing the Americas is fighting the pacific ocean, shrinking it so to speak. The ocean water will continue it’s speed of 40000 km/day, 463 m/s, but when the length
of day has shortened 1 ms the landmasses are moving 0.46 meter less than the ocean each day. This seems tiny but multiplied with the pacific shore line and a couple of thousand meters depth there’s a lot of cold water from the deep piling up.
In the opposite case, from 1970 to 2004 the americas were running away from the pacific, allowing less cold water to surface in east and water was piling up in the western pacific.
My first thought when I saw this post was ‘how come i haven’t seen it on TV before?’
My heart beats really fast as if i was reading the announcement for the doomsday.
Please, all of you scientists and experts out there..when you write about big topics like this one, please explain in layman words what the implication would be to the world? Is it going to cause ‘mass geological/biological extinction’?
Anyway, this new finding might explain the weird changes in the weather patten nowadays. In my part of the world, we have storm right in the afternoon …weird…but i dont want to sound superstitious…neither do i want to make a religion out of this…
* I am really scared though…thinking of a possible massive global destruction …who’s not afraid to die? I am afraid …but if it were to happen ..i hope it will be quick.
It seemed to begin about the same time as the planet got plastered with Obama iconography….
lgl says:
Are you sure of that? Are you saying the rotational period was increasing and is now decreasing, or that its speed of rotation was increasing and now is decreasing?
“With all due respect to those concerned, with all the talk of justifying the expense of the THEMIS satellites, am I wrong in assuming you would rather they had not launched them?”
I didn’t take the initial notice of that to say that they shouldn’t have been launched. It appeared to me as it was simply a statement to people to be a little wary of press releases when various groups of people are vying for public funding and might feel a need to justify that funding. Sometimes people can get a little “enthusiastic” when reporting findings in order to justify follow-on funding.
The press release was, the way I read it, intended to convey the notion that this program that cost a lot of money made a huge discovery that completely changed people’s understanding of how the interplanetary magnetic field works. I think it was also intentionally a little ominous in tone in order to justify follow-on funding.
Statements like “within minutes they overlapped over Earth’s equator to create the biggest magnetic breach” and “The entire day-side of the magnetosphere was open to the solar wind.” and “So, you can imagine our surprise when a northern IMF came along and shields went down instead” can be a bit scary to an average person who doesn’t understand what is being talked about. It seems to portray Earth as somehow being defenseless against something that might be dangerous. It is a fairly typical recipe. You talk about things that seem somehow ominous to the average person and then at the end you finish with:
Which is designed to secure support for ongoing funding. So you describe something that to the average voter might seem scary but then you tell them you are going to study it over the next 24 years and hope to be able to have something to tell them when that “really big event” comes along. It is a very subtle form of lobbying of the taxpayers and plays on fear of the unknown. You pump up the fear of the unknown with stuff like “Like an octopus wrapping its tentacles around a big clam” (we all know what eventually happens to that clam, don’t we).
Articles like this are probably experienced quite differently by people with some knowledge that Earth’s magnetic field is quite variable than it would be by, say, a sixth grader who will be funding that research bill 24 years into the future and would rather not be eaten by that octopus.
lgl “Earth’s rotation is changing all the time”
Here is an interesting link that finds at least LOD is a proxy for temperature but I can’t say it is part of the cause. They did the study to use because of the fisheries and catch rates seem to follow LOD. I have never compared LOD to the geomagnic but hey it might be interesting.
http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y2787E/y2787e03.htm#TopOfPage
lgl (09:05:09) :
the landmasses are moving 0.46 meter less than the ocean each day.
Some nonsense just speaks for itself, although this one is high on the scale.
Something I have wondered about that is a little scarier to me over the eons …
What I have wondered is if during a glaciation, particularly when continental land masses are near the pole and situated asymmetrically around it … if the huge accumulation of ice could cause the planet’s wobble to become exaggerated. If you consider spinning ball with most of the weight around the equator, it is pretty stable. Now if you start moving that weight to the poles but not exactly centered on the axis, it should begin to de-stabilize and wobble. If enough of that weight is transferred and the wobble becomes large enough, it should be possible for the whole system to “flip” and the polar regions suddenly find themselves at the equator, and then it stabilizes again.
I wonder if anything like that has ever happened in the past.
Jim Arndt (09:28:44) :
Here is an interesting link that finds at least LOD is a proxy for temperature
The link examines the atmospheric circulation [winds] and LOD, and their is a clear connection because winds are one of the cause for changes in the LOD. No mystery.
Looking through my telescope a couple weeks ago I thought I came across Al Gores broken hockey stick streaking across the sky. And now the Ionosphere is shrinking. I’m guessing there is a correlation, and a correlation as everybody knows is rock solid proof of a connection. Thus, Al Gores broken hockey stick is destroying the world!