The Sun today
Solar cycle 24 still getting a slow and very delayed start. This is the third one of these (that I know of) this past year.
From SIDC (Solar Influences Data analysis Center) in Belgium: http://sidc.oma.be/products/quieta/
:Issued: 2008 Dec 14 1156 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/quieta #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # From the SIDC (RWC-Belgium): "ALL QUIET" ALERT # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# START OF ALL QUIET ALERT ....................... The SIDC - RWC Belgium expects quiet Space Weather conditions for the next 48 hours or until further notice. This implies that: * the solar X-ray output is expected to remain below C-class level, * the K_p index is expected to remain below 5, * the high-energy proton fluxes are expected to remain below the event threshold. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# (h/t to sunspotter)
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So far, Leif is 10 for 10 on this website so I guess we should listen to him.
Unless his batting average goes down and he ends up at 10 for 20, but that would be a long time from now.
” Boy cries wolf. Has a few laughs. I forget how it ends,…”
Mike Bryant (16:11:58) : “We can solve it. We can control the sun. Do it for the children. It won’t be easy, but if we raise taxes high enough…”
I was about to congratulate you, Mike; then I had this feeling it may not be an original thought. You didn’t copy this from somewhere…?
Minnesota checking in. Currently -7 F, -35 F windchill @ur momisugly 21:15 cst.
High of -10 forecast tomorrow.
Graeme Rodaughan (17:33:24) :
OT. There is some evidence from genetics (link not handy) that the human population bottlenecked down to approx 3000 individuals approx 60,000 years ago.
The latest paper on population genetics I read (again, cite unavailable 🙁 … ) theorized that the population of earth was down to less than 30 fertile females at this time, and maybe as few as 6. They tentatively attributed the mass extinction and near extinction of humans to the Mt. Toba caldera eruption in Indonesia. It was an interesting read… but I CAN’T TRACK IT DOWN 🙁
Old Coach (17:04:17) :
what happens when a sunspot rotates to the back side of the sun? Do they disappear immediately or do we lack the technology to detect them?
Most spots only live a few days and so far most of the new spots have been small. It has been known for more than a 100 years that more sunspots are observed to be born in the eastern hemisphere [or even on the backside] than on the western hemisphere, e.g. http://www.sunearthplan.net/2/701/Invisible-spots-on-the-Sun
Colin Aldridge (17:13:02) :
Leif – I have read your paper referenced earlier […] current anlaysis of how we should view the “unusual” cycle 23/24.
This transition is not all that unusual, it is just that most people only get to observe a handful of cycle which colors their perception of what is normal.
If Obama doesn’t get started doing nothing in a big way real soon, he’s going to miss out on a credible claim of “Victory”.
Roger Carr,
“We can solve it.” is Al Gore’s webbsite.
Crosspatch said we can’t do anything about the sun, so I said we can.
I’ve heard “Do it for the children.” maybe a billion times.
Then I just ended it with the higher taxes thing.
I didn’t copy it exactly, I just put a few things together.
Mike
Graeme Rodaughan (17:33:24) :
Googling for human population near extinction:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_bottleneck
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/04/24/close.call.ap/index.html
http://haplogroup-i.com/2008/human-extinction/
http://www.vhemt.org/ [Okay, so it’s “forward looking”…]
Mike Bryant (20:07:51) : I was being facetious, Mike. Actually congratulating you on a clever post.
What happens in the US if we have a Maunder or a Dalton?
We don’t rightly know. The US was nothing more than a few settlements during the Maunder, and only 1/3 settled during the Dalton.
It can’t be good.
We should be asking the Native Americans that question.
If we are nice enough, they might tell us.
Maybe not.
Patrick Henry (15:17:33) :
Patrick,
Right now it is about -2 in Denver proper. The airport, our new source of official Denver readings is -15.
What is not being discussed, or even observed, by our weather reporting folks is this obvious display of urban heat island effect.
We certainly have enjoyed a warmer than usual November here in Denver. My snap dragons were alive up until this weekend, so I’m not complaining. But I’m sure glad I’m inside tonight.
Jeffrey DeWitt (16:40:34) :
Jeffery,
People are sort of supportive of the notion of AGW until the bill arrives for attempting to fix it. I really believe AGW is a non-issue for most people, especially now with serious economic problems unfolding. Obama’s green team and the like are nothing more than eye dressing for the greenies.
If I’m wrong:
We’ll have some serious economic issues in this country, as you point out.
China and India will continue to pump CO2 into the atmosphere, continuing the big experiment on the connection between CO2 and climate change.
By the end of the Obama administration (eight years from now?) the discrediting of the AGW hypothesis should be painfully concluded.
And a whole lot of well connected people will be wealthier.
Leif: “…It has been known for more than a 100 years that more sunspots are observed to be born in the eastern hemisphere [or even on the backside] than on the western hemisphere, e.g. http://www.sunearthplan.net/2/701/Invisible-spots-on-the-Sun”
That’s very interesting. What could cause that?
jeffrey
“Hansen is doing what politicians do, picking and choosing his data to fit his theory.
One of the many things I find really disturbing about this whole global warming scare is what if these guys get what they want, we stop building new power plants or even worse shut down some of the ones we have now. Then a bunch of people start driving electric cars… and we go into another little ice age.
It will get awfully cold and dark.”
And what happens if we squander all the fossil fuels and THEN an ice age occurs ?
Terry Bixler, MattN and Nick Yates,
Please have a look at the talk I gave in Melbourne, Australia, in July 2008:
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/solar-cycles/IanwilsonForum2008.pdf
Nick, be careful which PDO reconstruction that you use. Some of the tree ring proxy’s, like Biondi et al. 2001 and MacDonald and Case 2005, are precipitaion-sensitive, while other are temperature senstive, like D’Arrigo et al. 2001. I would advise using the temperature sensitive proxy sequence of D’Arrigo et al. 2001, as it better refects the PDO switches. These switches primarily reflect changes in seas surface temperatures which should match changes in temperature along the coastal regions of the adjacent continents. It is a little less clear how chnages in the phase of the PDO would afffect coastal precipiation levels.
Leif Svalgaard (19:45:34) :
It has been known for more than a 100 years that more sunspots are observed to be born in the eastern hemisphere [or even on the backside] than on the western hemisphere, e.g. http://www.sunearthplan.net/2/701/Invisible-spots-on-the-Sun
So what does this tell us? Sunspots prefer to be born on the far side rather than on the “western hemisphere”? Is there an observational bias or a physical correlation with the direction to earth?
SC24 is bang on target, and should prove to be the weakest we have seen since 200 yrs ago. But I dont think it will be as deep as the Maunder Minimum (we missed that chance) but could me more “Dalton” like.
Look at this graph showing solar system influence on the Sun. Notice the similar pattern in 1790 as it does now.
http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/files/2007/05/sunssbam1620to2180.gif
Basically what caused the deep minima of the past is waning, but still strong enough to throw a cycle or 2 into chaos.
dennis ward (23:49:33) :
And what happens if we squander all the fossil fuels and THEN an ice age occurs ?
We will use nuclear power. BTW, the known fossil fuels in the U.S.A. alone will last about 400 years and maybe more, so we have plenty of time to continue business as usual while we ponder your question.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1996/of96-092/map.htm shows where coal is in the U.S.A.; by my eyeball measurement it’s about 1/4 of the country sits on top of coal.
The years of reserves varies with the price so the ‘life time of reserves’ is somewhere between 250 years and 400 depending on what price is used and what you assume for burn rate. Coal can be easily turned to gasoline and Diesel (as done by SASOL in Africa). (Reserves have several levels of definition, but the most common one is based on what it’s worth harvesting at the present price. Price goes up and suddenly Presto! more reserves…)
See: http://www.sasol.com/sasol_internet/frontend/navigation.jsp?navid=1600033&rootid=2
The USGS map is somewhat conservative in that I know of at least one large peat field that they have left off the map. Every so often someone driving past tosses out a cigarette and sets the land on fire… (near Stockton). We don’t think of peat as a fuel here…
Nuclear has about a 10,000 year lifetime before we have to get fancy. With known proven technologies we can move that out to a few million years+.
See: http://nucleargreen.blogspot.com/2008/03/cost-of-recovering-uranium-from.html
If that’s not enough, we can move on to Thorium of which there is more than Uranium. 2 to 4 times. It is already working in nuclear reactors today. India has a program (and lots of Th but not so much U) Also we can use it in our present reactors if desired. Thorium Power Inc does that (ticker THPW)
See: http://www.thoriumpower.com/default2.asp?nav=technology_solutions&subnav=thorium101
Disclosure: I own about 10,000 shares of THPW. (Which is really impressive until you find out its 16 cents a share….)
So, there is no energy shortage and there never will be. We run out of power when we run out of planet. Honest.
There is a politically induced shortage of dirt cheap liquid motor fuel. Nothing more.
The real risk is that we damage our economy so much that we can’t put this technology to use in time for an ice age, then we fall back to hunter gatherers and start all over in another 100,000 years 8-|
Have I mentioned lately that Economics is called The Dismal Science for a reason?…
“And what happens if we squander all the fossil fuels and THEN an ice age occurs ?”
Wait…is THAT the reason we’re supposed to cut down on fossil fuel usage?…we’re actually SAVING them for later, when we really need them?
Interesting.
Wonder who would have the keys to said piggy bank?
JimB
Old Coach,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory
http://www.andaman.org/BOOK/originals/Weber-Toba/textr.htm
“What happens in the US if we have a Maunder or a Dalton?
We don’t rightly know. The US was nothing more than a few settlements during the Maunder, and only 1/3 settled during the Dalton.”
During the coldest decades of the LIA (which occured during the Maunder Minimum), the East Coast’s problem was not temperature, but precipitation. The Colonists in Virginia and the Carolinas were starving due to no rain. The worst draught to hit North America in a 1000 years occured during the Maunder Minimum.
Question. If the Northern US is as cold as it is right now (witch tit cold by the way), how cold is it in the Arctic? Can we get the Eskimos to start burning coal? Maybe ring the Arctic with fume belching used cars on idle with those SEARS batteries in them? Anything. I’m ready to try anything. If I put any more pipe heaters in my house, I will end up burning the damned thing down.
Hathaway & others were predicting a wild & furious storm laden Solar Cycle 24 a fair while ago now, using evermore sophisticated (meaning adulterated?) models were based on previous Solar Cycles with claims of greater (really?)accuracy by exactly matching previous cycles, yet they got it wrong so far have they not?
Hey Crosspatch, that was my idea for Solar Credits, I completely missed the Carbon Credit bandwagon so I’m blowed if I’m gonna let that Golden Goose get away!
The British half-wits (sorry dedicated climate expert scientists) who recently claimed to have proven that the Sun has “no effect” on climate, are awfully quiet & no further mention of it has been made since a tiny newspaper article back in August. I wonder why? Bet they realised they should have used a + instead of a – in the sums! The BBC has been remarkably silent on the goings on in Poznan & I have heard very little on it at all on national tv news broadcasts, from 2001 onwards climate change & global warming were regularly in the news, are they too having doubts & may be starting to cover their rear ends just in case, like an agnostic atheist?
Even the Met Office seem to be covering themselves backing both ways, they claimed to have predicted a cooler year than 2007 at the beginning, AFTER the temperature drop occurred in January, then in September they predicted that this winter will be milder or as mild as last year’s, wrong so far, I expect they’re on their knees at night at bedtime praying that January & Febuary will get them out of this one, which it could well do of course so that they can claim overall temps were as high or higher so their “puterrr” was right!! We’ll see.
MattN (18:09:57) :
“Any thoughts on PDO an solar cycle relationship. My guess is that they are directly related but as to what the coupling is and how it works that is the question.”
My thoughts exactly. What is the coincidence that the sun goes dormant and the PDO flips at same time. My experience as an engineer says there is virtually no such thing as a coincidence.
1. That’s a pretty easy hypothesis to test: go back to look when PDO shifted since 1900 and ask whether it coincided with solar minimum? Answers from the pros please……
2. A hypothesis could easily be made that increased solar irradiance manifested itself in greater total oceanic heat, however the nature of PDO/AMO may modulate whether this is surface-based or deeper down. It may be that if it becomes deeper down then this will manifest itself in the climate record maybe 30-50 years hence at subsequent PDO/AMO shifts. It could also manifest itself in El Nino/La Nina ratios within PDO cycles.
Any research done on that chaps?