Gore links Iowa floods and tornadoes to climate change, but makes a basic error on global temperature to evaporation linkage, plus he misses the real reason behind imagined tornado increases.
[Excerpt: In a recent article in the Des Moines Register, Al ] Gore attributed the historic floods that devastated Iowa in June to man-made emissions causing more water to evaporate from oceans, increasing average humidity worldwide. “In 66 of your 99 counties, the flood damage was truly historic.” Gore told the crowd of 1,000 Democratic donors. “No one has ever seen a flood like this.” Gore also blamed climate change for increased tornadoes, including the one that leveled much of Parkersburg earlier this year. “Yes, we’ve always had tornadoes in Iowa and in Tennessee,” he said. “But they’re coming more frequently and they’re stronger.”
UAH satellite derived global temperature data. Click for a larger image
Current value for August 2008 is -0.010°C
According to our current scientific understanding of the water cycle and water vapor on Earth, the average residence time of water molecules in the troposphere (where evaporation and most weather occurs) is about 10 days.
Since the global temperature trend has been a negative slope since 2007, and is currently near the zero anomaly line, and with the short residence time of water vapor in the water cycle, Gore’s claimed “warming” could not be responsible for increased water vapor. If anything, water vapor in the water cycle would be less now.
Gore clearly doesn’t understand basic meteorology, much less climate.
Then there is Gore’s claim of “Yes, we’ve always had tornadoes in Iowa and in Tennessee,” he said. “But they’re coming more frequently and they’re stronger.” Well, the graph below says otherwise.
Graph from NWS/NOAA. Smaller (F1) tornadoes seem to be on the increase, but not larger ones (F2-F5). This is likely due to increased reporting from Doppler Radar, storm chasers, and news gathering. Small tornadoes that once went unnoticed are now often reported, and make the news.
Gore is flat wrong.
References:
1) Climatologist dismisses extreme weather predictions due to man-made warming as ‘complete nonsense’ – By Hydro-climatologist Stewart Franks, an Associate Professor of Environmental Engineering at the University of Newcastle in Australia. (LINK)
2) Another scientist dismisses fearmongers: Midwest Floods and ‘Completely Unjustified’ Climate Change Fear Mongering – June 22, 2008 – By Mike Smith is a certified consulting meteorologist and a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society He is CEO of WeatherData Services, Inc., an AccuWeather Company, based in Wichita.) (LINK)
3) U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report shows Hurricanes declining, NO increases in drought, tornadoes, thunderstorms, heat-waves – June 20, 2008 – (LINK)
4) Going Down: Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events (LINK)
5) Analysis in peer-reviewed journal finds COLD PERIODS – not warm periods – see INCREASE in floods, droughts, storms, famine – April 24, 2008 – (LINK)
6) Increasing tornadoes or better information gathering? – February 8th, 2008 – (LINK)
Paddy (11:52:28) :
IceFree: Have you noticed that Democrat candidates/holders of high office are serial liars? Clinton, Gore, Obama, Biden, Reid, Pelosi, Frank, Dodd, Boxer, Waxman, come to mind.
I was surprised that comment got past the moderators, having, as it does, nothing to do with science. I could make counter-arguments about some whopper liars of the other persuasion, but, again, that would have nothing to do with science.
Ed Scott, as Glaciers do, they lose size, to a greater or lesser extent as natural temperature fluctuations occur.
As the name might suggest though, this happens at a slow pace-just like Al Gores thoughtless processes.
I understand he may have lost alot of his carbon credit scams in in Lehman Bros collapse, proving that there is fairness in the universe.
Come back to New Zealand, it has stopped raining now…
But what would you do if they´d cheated you out of the Presidency?
Well, I’m sure dubya would have felt ever so bad if that had happened. #B^1
(Fortunately for democracy it did not.)
Leonard Ornstein (09:34:47) :”it’s leveled off at a WARM temperature.”
Citation?
History will have the last laugh with respect to Al Gore. It won’t be long before empirical evidence so completely overwhelms Al Gore’s lies, and he becomes nothing but a SNL parody. It takes a pretty big fool to make a giant bet against the Sun and the Pacific Ocean.
[…] http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/05/gore-demonstrates-he-doesnt-understand-basic-meteorology-much-… […]
Here comes the Climate Czar…stay tuned for November!
The trouble is they will believe him.
I hope the lad has not wasted that $3 million or so:
“AUSTRALIANS are getting bored with climate change, and many still doubt whether it is actually happening, a new survey has revealed.”
Aussies ‘bored’ with climate change
The Australian
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24455802-12377,00.html
It’s a wee bit unfair to Al Gore because he is actually repeating what many climatologists have already been saying. Notably Kevin Trenberth, who very often feeds the the press misleading speculation as if it was fact, stated that an apparent 3% increase in water vapor was due to warming and he helpfully guided journalists into linking that to the flooding. Of course he must have known it was nonsense but he said it anyway and many others copied him. Other climatologists have also linked the tornadoes and indeed virtually every other natural events to AGW seemingly on the basis that if it’s bad it must be mankind’s fault.
Also Gore was also fully “advised” on his factually incorrect documentary by some of the biggest names in climate science. So is he really to blame for listening to the scientists and promoting loudly what they say? We don’t actually expect politicians to get the science right but we do have a right to expect scientists to be honest. You are all hitting the wrong target. If Alexander Cockburn is correct that Gore has been a long-time lobbyist for nuclear power then that’s an area to focus your vitriol but if he genuinely believes what he is saying then it’s purely because the scientists are lying to him.
And the character that complained about democrats being serial liars must have been in a cave for the last 8 years and missed all the rather more serious lying from the other side. Yes politicians lie – all of them! Wow is that news to some of you? But anyone complaining about carbon taxes potentially screwing up the economy is a bit late: It’s screwed already. And it had nothing whatsoever to do with the greens or socialism, it was caused by the unchecked free market capitalism so beloved by modern economists and conservative voters. You just can’t escape that fact.
JamesG (02:53:01) I agree wholeheartedly with everything you say except that this housing mess was caused by poor regulations promulgated by Clinton. When Bush, supported by McCain, attempted to regulate the mess, Democrats like Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and Chuck Schumer blocked them, supported by industry insiders presently and previously advising Obama. This mess is the Democrats’ fault.
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And Lehman’s demise was most likely aided by the fact that they’d been advised by Hansen and Gore, and were a world leader in the carbon trading schemes. That the carbon market is unsettled has a lot to do with unsettling in the market in general, and most likely, particularly in Europe, which is collapsing as I write. Well, the markets and the Euro are.
Historians may place some of the blame for this on the speculative bubble which is represented by all the carbon schemes.
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I think much of Gore’s logic is subject to question. I do not buy into the whole global warming concept because it is frankly very questionable science. I think anyone who links short term climate events to a long term trend is just playing a public relations game.
http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/
John Phillips,
How does one actually calculate what a “five hundred year flood” is anyway? Presumably one uses statistics to look at the variation around the mean and figures it out using standard deviations. Of course this assumes that conditions during the test period from which you took your initial data have held steady for five hundred years and have only recently began to change. In other words, your evidence assumes your conclusion.
kim (03:36:43) :
“JamesG (02:53:01) I agree wholeheartedly with everything you say except that this housing mess was caused by poor regulations promulgated by Clinton. When Bush, supported by McCain, attempted to regulate the mess, Democrats like Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and Chuck Schumer blocked them, supported by industry insiders presently and previously advising Obama. This mess is the Democrats’ fault.”
Fairly or unfairly, presidents get credit and blame for what happens on their watch with regard to the economy. The nineties will rightly be remembered as a time of economic prosperity; the aughts will not.
I would be interested in reading any links you might have establishing that Clinton’s inadequate regulations caused the sub-prime lending crisis. Most reasonable people agree that Greenspan, under Bush, left the cash spigot on too long before exiting the stage, that Wall Street’s “new” “financial instruments,” abetted by an administration that looked the other way, were duplicitous, and that McCain neither understood what was happening when inappropriate home loans were being handed out by the tens of thousands and then traded on Wall Street by reckless investment bankers nor took any steps to address the growing bubble and the aftermath once it burst.
In terms of honesty, one could argue that national debt is inherently dishonest. By that measure, the TRILLIONS in new debt racked up during the last eight years is an astonishing instance of dishonesty.
Whether one is on the political left or right, Al Gore’s campaign of disinformation, whether knowing or unknowing, is not good. His juggernaut of AGW is likely to continue to distract national governments, and many people, from the true challenges posed by the coming cold.
“But what would you do if they´d cheated you out of the Presidency?”
Well, I will take a shot at your rhetorical question. Dick Nixon, who is the last person to be cheated out of the presidency that we know about, didn’t take it very well, and it released a dark side in him that did him no great service in the end.
Yes he is, since he flatly refuses to listen to anyone with an alternate theory, or with contrary evidence.
Harold Ambler (05:44:03) It was Clintonian regulations loosening the requirements for loans that set the juggernaut down the hill.
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kim (07:52:03) :
“Harold Ambler (05:44:03) It was Clintonian regulations loosening the requirements for loans that set the juggernaut down the hill.”
Citation please. I would need a news article, not an opinion article. If you provide a link, then we can argue about that.
In the meantime, I would compare monetary policy to driving a vehicle. Sometimes government needs to put on the brakes, and sometimes just releasing the brakes is enough. Sometimes government even needs to step on the accelerator. Clinton, for all his manifest sins, had a nuanced understanding of markets and regulations. There is a reason he left office with a budget surplus.
When one occupant of the White House, i.e. Bush, takes the wheel, it is up to him or her to determine what needs to be done — at that moment in time. Saying that the previous drive tapped the accelerator five miles back won’t do. Bush has driven us into several ditches.
Again some what of topic but a great read just the same.
On October 2, Poland persuaded Greece to join its dissenting group, which also comprises Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. Under EU rules, decisions can be blocked by a given number of member states, and the Poles have constructed such a ‘blocking minority’
http://web.mac.com/sinfonia1/Global_Warming_Politics/A_Hot_Topic_Blog/Entries/2008/10/5_Poles_To_Freeze_Brussels%E2%80%99_Sprouts_.html
Gore speaks as a nuncio of the Environmentalism faith (Thank you very much Freeman Dyson) . His “utterings” (or “mutterings”) (or bulls) have resulted in a new definition for the verb “gored,” in that this process is verbal, whereas the traditional bull accomplishes it physically.
I live in Iowa and my hometown was engulfed in the floods. A five hundred year flood is a misnomer. It really means there is a 1 in 500 chance to have a flood of that magnitude for that year.
Last winter was cold and we had very large snows that did not melt. My town received more than 6 feet of snow over the winter. It melted late which caused most farmers to delay planting because of the soil moisture. A rainy spring kept the soil moisture and rivers high.
The system that spawned a tornado in western Iowa that hit a Boy Scout camp was responsible for dropping up to 10 inches of rain overnight in northern Iowa. The Iowa and Cedar River basins were the main ones affected with the large snowfall, soil moisture and large rainfall.
Waterloo and Cedar Rapids were affected by the Cedar River. Iowa City was affected by the Iowa River. The rivers join near Columbus Junction and continue as the Iowa River from there to the Mississippi River. My hometown, Oakville, was inundated by the river when the levee failed. Levees also failed for Illinois towns of Keithsburg, Gulfport and New Boston. Failures also occurred in Missouri.
Cedar Rapids was only expecting a 20 foot flood, which they raised to 22 then 25 feet. The final level was estimated at 32 feet. Nearly the entire downtown was affected. Homes nearly a mile away were hit.
At Oakville, every building had water. The town was covered between 4 to 10 feet. Over 22,000 acres of farmland were wiped out. It has been estimated 30% of the farmland in the state was adversely affected by the wet spring and floods.
A colder winter, heavy snowfalls, spring rains and heavy summer thunderstorms all combined to cause the floods. We have had cold winters before, heavy snowfalls before, spring rains before and heavy thunderstorms before. This combination was what caused the flooding.
This summer was cooler than normal and September was warmer than normal.
Harold Ambler. This piece in that well known Republican bastion called the NY Times, lays the root of the problem at Fannie and Freddie to Clinton’s “encouraging” them to loosen the qualifications to get a home mortgage. This allowed (some say forced) people lending the money to do away with time honored parameters of what you needed to have to qualify for a loan in order to allow low income people to get a home. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260&scp=1&sq=Fannie%20Mae%20Eases%20Credit%20To%20Aid%20Mortgage%20Lending&st=cse
While Bush has made some real bonehead mistakes, this article shows his attempt to force some oversight on Freddie and Fannie back in 2003.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B74DABC67-B059-465E-AF68-6DB22EB961CD%7D
Gore doesn’t have to understand meteorology…not as long as MSM is pumping out articles like this:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/09/28/what.matters.meltdown/index.html
And for those that think that Gore is somehow an “innocent” in all this, and is just accepting what some bad scientists are telling him, you need to do a little research on what Gore is involved in these days, and how his personal wealth managed to climb from approx. $800K to roughly $1.2B dollars in 8yrs. These aren’t smears…these are facts. This man is evil, and should be tried for crimes against humanity.
JimB