UPDATE: Former California State climatologist Jim Goodridge presents some data that suggests that ocean temperature may be an equal or greater driving force behind Los Angeles Temperature increases, see graph below.
Source: NASA JPL
UPDATE: Sea surface temperature anomaly versus Los Angeles air temperature:
Source: Former California State climatologist Jim Goodridge – click for larger image
Perhaps the adjuster should adjust the adjustments a bit. This press release from NASA Jet Propulsion Lab says that most of the increase in temperature has to do with ubanization:
[NASA’s JPL Bill] Patzert says global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases is responsible for some of the overall heating observed in Los Angeles and the rest of California. Most of the increase in heat days and length of heat waves, however, is due to a phenomenon called the “urban heat island effect.”
Heat island-induced heat waves are a growing concern for urban and suburban dwellers worldwide. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, studies around the world have shown that this effect makes urban areas from 2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 6 degrees Celsius) warmer than their surrounding rural areas.
Patzert says this effect is steadily warming Southern California, though more modestly than some larger urban areas around the world. “Dramatic urbanization has resulted in an extreme makeover for Southern California, with more homes, lawns, shopping centers, traffic, freeways and agriculture, all absorbing and retaining solar radiation, making our megalopolis warmer,” Patzert said.
Then there’s station siting issues, like this station on a rooftop of a fire station in Santa, Ana, CA. Note the air conditioner units all around.
Santa Ana Station looking North. Click for a larger image
The temperature record from that station, courtesy the Orange County Register:
And my complete write-up on it is available here
Here is the scientifc paper by Patzert, Ladochy, and Tamrazian which is cited by the NASA JPL press release.
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The ocean near Los Angeles modifies its weather and climate. If LA were inland, we would see a larger drop in temperature at night.
Another viable explanation of the CO2/Temp correlations in the graphs presented by Alex and Dee is this:
I will make a hypothesis that says that CO2 and temperature are linked but neither one “drives” the other. They are not mutually bound in a cause and effect relationship. Some other agent is responsible for both rising and falling.
This is not impossible, so it must be probable, even if the probability is very small. So much effort has been put into the CO2-Temperature relationship that we have forgotten to step back and look at the bigger picture.
The human brain is very highly tuned to see patterns, often in completely or loosely related things. We see bunnies in clouds, faces in rocks, etc. When two things happen in close temporal proximity, we see cause and effect as a pattern.
In all the CO2 vs. Temp charts, one factor leads the other, it may be temp leading CO2 in some periods or CO2 leading temp in others. This alone makes the cause/effect arguement weak on both sides.
If one asserts that temperature leads CO2 75% of the time, for example, then one would have to explain why it does not lead in the other 25% as well. CO2 leading temperature would have the same problem. So we could postulate probability that another agent in play that in effect changes the conditions to which CO2 and temperature react.
Maybe my hypothesis is wrong, that’s ok.
@Alan S. Blue:
The raw data for T and d are available here (d is not scaled):
http://www.woodfortrees.org/data/uah/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/derivative:1/from:1979
Dan Hughes, that is my recollection too. Roger Pielke Sr. has covered a lot of the ground regarding land-use change and seems to believe (my perception) it is a bigger issue than CO2/GHG, as seems borne out here. Scroll down to Sept. 12th at his site for the most recent relevent posting at his site:
http://climatesci.org/
There are many other papers previous to this one.
Could it have something to do with cleaning up the smog?
John Nicklin, you might like to check out Josh Hall’s two graphs shown here where with temp leading CO2, r squared is 0.569, but with CO2 plotted to lead temp, r squared is 0.085
Well I seem to have started a considerable discussion here…
One observation about the derivative CO2/temperature discussion: the temperature fell because of the 1991 pinatubo eruption and so did the CO2 emission rate. If it was to do with ENSO, it would have risen, because it was in an el nino phase. But it follows temperature instead, indicating it is that, not ENSO, which is linked to the CO2 derivative.
startelling… lol
Temp driving CO2 or not seems like a simple chemistry experiment, but I’m too far (in years) from my old college chem lab to try it out. Surely there’s some science already out there on CO2 absorption under different temperatures.
Don’t forget Anthony posted a paper from Compo & Sardeshmukh of the University of Colorado and NOAA in July
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/07/23/compo-and-sardeshmukh-oceans-a-main-driver-of-climate-variability-its-the-heat-and-the-humidity/
The abstract says
“Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has ocurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land.”
Thanks Lucy.
Still, what causes the flip from temp —> CO2 to CO2 —> temp. Other factors must be at play and it is not a simple cause and effect relationship and certainly no where near the proof that the IPCC claims it to be.
Retired Engineer (17:53:55) :
I wonder if Hansen will demand Patzert stand trial for hearsay?
Or perhaps Al will call for juvenile vandalism of JPL?
Slamdunk: Did you mean hearsay, or heresy? 🙂
I read a study that the addition of large amounts of surface water for crop irrigation (and lawn watering) significantly increases near surface water vapor and causes a near surface greenhouse warming effect that tends to have a greater effect at increasing night time lows.
That would go along with nearby ocean warming which would increase air temperature directly and also increase near surface water vapor to augment the increasing night time lows from irrigation.
And doesn’t the warm phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) form a horseshoe shape of warmer water that goes along the CA coast, so the ocean effect on Sanata Ana might correlate the PDO shifts like the 1977 PDO shift to warm phase?
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/24/113052/320/
I couldn’t log into this site easily. However, the use of the word kudos is problematic! The word sod is a mild profanity in the UK implying a certain sexual act, eg to sodomise as in the Bible, Soddam & Gomarah. So the inverted term kudos = soduk or sod UK, which is possibly an interesting take on the AGW movement’s attitude to this great country that I adore so much!
Please feel free to comment, my back is wide enough & can take all the flailing & knives out there!
We really aren’t a bad race I swear, we are mostly decent people. Just lacking in direction. I wish I could vote in the upcoming USA election as I know who I would vote for!
Has anyone ever done a definitive experiment on CO2 sensitivity?
I mean, how hard can it be to fill 3, or 4 greenhouses with varying percentages of CO2 in the atmosphere, and track the temperatures?
Dan Lee (12:02:29) :
“Surely there’s some science already out there on CO2 absorption under different temperatures.”
There is lots. I went looking for some, but didn’t find it readily. I did find an interesting link to a John Daly page, http://www.john-daly.com/oceanco2/oceanco2.htm , which says “As one could expect, a temperature increase of one degree celsius will increase the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in the range of 8 ppm (150 m layer) to 18 ppm (600 m layer).”
Appreciate that input from Jim Goodridge.
That graph is suggestive, to me at least, that the warm/cool phases of the PDO affect not only the global climate, but coastal climate as well. I would think that, were it not for the UHI effect as Los Angeles grew, the temperature graph for LA would show the effects of the ocean more clearly.
This seems to serve as a simple object lesson in the complexity of climate. Can’t focus on a single explanation for temperature changes. It would seem that, during the previous cool phase, there was also growth in the LA area which reduced the ocean’s cooling effect. It would seem that in judging temperature variations the changes in LA land uses as the city grew, as well as the PDO phases ought to be considered. And, of course, changes in air quality as pollution was abated, resulting in clearer skies.
Oh such a tangled web is this thing called climate.
@Dave Andrew
Keep in mind it was Hansen who used the ocean warming as proof for his “smoking gun”.
I’ve yet to see a quantified explanation for how rising CO2 levels can warm the oceans more than direct solar radiation. It appears to be a perpetuum mobile.
Did California cause the nearby ocean to warm? 🙂
Anthony: “A ruling on what?”
I was referring to your decision to close down a thread: “NSIDC’s Dr Walt Meier…” without allowing as right of reply.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/21/nsidc-s-dr-walt-meier-answers-10-questions/#comments
In this case you shut down the debate immediately following some charges against my claim.
Don’t take the wrong message. I’m not claiming prior deliberation on your part. I am asking you to clarify your position. If it’s “property rights rule”, fine. But please be more explicit in your rulings, so we all know where we stand.
REPLY: The thread is still open, I just wanted the off topic discussion to stop.
“That graph is suggestive, to me at least, that the warm/cool phases of the PDO affect not only the global climate, but coastal climate as well”
Of course costal climate is affected, as are regional sealevels seen to differ from other areas due to conditions such as the PDO.
The lagging/leading issue in Alex’s plot is an artifact of using UAH rather than SST. There is a delay during the transfer of heat between the ocean and the lower troposphere.
Here is the same plot of CO2 derivative and Temp, but this time it is using Hadley SST. Please note that I have slightly detrended SST with an offset and a scale to fit the plot to CO2 derivative.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1979/scale:0.5/detrend:0.1/offset:0.1/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/derivative:1/from:1979
“Don’t take the wrong message. I’m not claiming prior deliberation on your part. I am asking you to clarify your position. If it’s “property rights rule”, fine. But please be more explicit in your rulings, so we all know where we stand.”
Seems some here have a basic problem with reading for comprehension, since
Anthony clearly explained his reasons in that thread. It needed no “clarification” and couldn’t have been more explicit.
Glenn: “Seems some here have a basic problem with reading for comprehension…”
Hmm: “Ok, I’m going to shut this down, this thread has gone waaaayy off topic.” Reads like a shutting down. If not, fine.
Glenn (14:24:58)
Another thing I forgot to mention is that we should bear in mind that an event such as the PDO should not be viewed as a monolithic event. The warm/cool phases indicate the type of pattern that is dominant; you can have a warm spell during the cool phase, just as you can have a cool spell during th warm phase. This just adds another complicating matter in trying to comprehend what the climate is doing.
I reconsidered the detrend on SST and decided to switch the detrend to CO2 derivative which in turn produced a slightly better plot:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1979/scale:0.5/offset:0.1/plot/esrl-co2/derivative:1/from:1979/mean:12/detrend:-0.1
Also, as discovered by this blog, the CO2 values out of Mauna Loa are adjusted and in some cases bulldozed to fill-in for missing data.
Obtaining accurate data seems to be a on-going problem for climate studies. It will be interesting to see how Hadley SST stacks up against Argo data in the long run.
@Kum Dollison:
Has anyone ever done a definitive experiment on CO2 sensitivity?
There are several studies. Here is a graph of the results of three of them.
http://tinyurl.com/yrjx7p
The various authors include skeptics and supporters. You can read more on the studies here:
http://junkscience.com/Greenhouse/index.html