Maybe there is some hope for SC24 ramping up this year yet. This appears to be the largest SC24 spot to date. Previous SC24 spots have faded quickly, we’ll see how long this one lasts.
UPDATE: 9/23 It is already fading fast, see this animation that I’ve produced.
In other news, Jan Jansens reports that SC23-24 continues to behave much more like cycles in the late 19th and early 20th century. See this:
Click for the ful sized image
There is also a weaker, but distinct, level of activity at 22 years, the double sunspot of Hale cycle. The last three Hale cycles have been stronger than earlier Hale cycles. There is some indication of a double Hale cycle (~44 years) and at the top of the graph, we’re in Gleissberg cycle territory.
Now, for an interesting observation and speculation, note that at present, which is at the right edge of the chart, from the 11 yr line to the top it is all blue. There is only one other place on the entire chart where we can draw a vertical line from the 11 yr line to the top without it crossing some portion of color other than blue. Can you find it? (It is right at the beginning of Solar Cycle 5, i.e. the Dalton Minimum). Are we watching the beginning of a new 200 year cycle like what began with the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800’s? Obviously, no one knows. But the current transition is certainly unusual, and invites comparison to past transitions.
Johnnyb (15:48:08) :
“So, if I understand this correctly… The onset of SC 24 is near. SC23 was a little bit long, but as not really exceptional in the grand scheme of things right?
No Grand Solar minimum is coming, no Dalton or Maunder Minimum, no Little Ice Age, etc.”
Those who have made a prediciton that we will head into a Dalton Minimum or Maunder minimum state on the sun do not predict it to happen next year but in a dacade or 2. Some say as early as 2015.There is a possibility that a Dalton Minimum state on the sun could be initiated with SC24 but there are different opinions about this.
When it comes to SC25 it is predicted to be the weakest in centuries by NASA which could mean it will be comparable to Dalton Minimum or Maunder minimum. But we do not know enough about the sun in order to predict such events yet. We couldn’t even predict that SC23 was going to stretch out this much a few years ago.
And finally, SC24 has not ramped up yet even though there are signs that we have passed or are passing the deepest part of this minimum atm. (increased SC24 magnetic activity but too weak to form sunspots yet.)
Bobby Lane (18:19:38) :
. . . And there is no known reason why the Earth should act like a nuclear reactor, the only process in the universe that is dominated by positive feedbacks.
Nuclear reactors aren’t dominated by positive feedback. Well, Chernobyl, briefly.
I can think of three processes that are –
A- and H-bombs, stellar supernovae, and AGW alarmism.
Mike 😉
former B-52 driver
The SC24 spot I saw today had faded from distinct to fuzzy in the space of 6 hrs. It is now just barely visible on Catania’s white light image. That may be due to light overcast, so it will remain to be seen if it survives the night.
I believe that Leif despite his excellent work has doubts about the effects of the planets.
But the notion of the Sun being dragged forcefully, and reacting accordingly, when it is outside the solar system barycentre is very appealing, and suggests orderly, predictable, verifiable solar cycles that might finally establish a longterm climate standard. Visible effects have to be composites of the individual planetary cycles, and if I had the time I’d check nobwainer’s assertion of 179-year cycles currently operational, on his Geometry in Space. I also suspect that this research has already been done by others, if one could identify the right blog.
Ah, blog-mining! the science industry of the future!
Nobwainer:
No success, the tool you mention doesn’t seem to work on my computer.
If you are so certain that the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune line up every 179 years, just give me 2 or 3 instants of these line-ups. Then I can check it by means of one of my programs. Thanks.
Interesting thought of the Jovian influence on the Sun. So I went to see how far away Jupiter is from the Sun. The earth is 93 million miles or 150 million km from Sun, and the Sun’s actifity can be seen (aurora, etc). Jupiter is 483 million miles or 779 million km from Sun. How exactly does Jupiter influence the sun way back there? With a very big stick? I think not. Jupiter doesn’t influence the Earth in any way I know of (perhaps I’m wrong, and if so, I stand corrected) so how can it influence the Sun. Saturn is 886 million miles or 1428 million km from Sun and Uranus 1782 million miles or 2974 million km from Sun and neptune 2794 Million miles or 4506 million km from Sun. I think the arguments about gas giants are perhaps weak. By my math If you could travel at I mile per second, you could travel 3153600 miles per year and you’d take a long time to reach those gas giants. Even Voyager 1, travelling at 520 million kilometers per year took a long time.
On the sunspot front, remember “one swallow doeth not a summer make”
That is a wonderful image. Look at the apparent fractal nature of it. It seems chaotic and scalable; noting those shapes with legs on different scales (i.e. frequencies).
i stand corrected, just read this. “While the work of Mausumi Dikpati suggests that meridional flows in the sun’s convective layer may allow us to forecast sunspot activity , other forces may also be at work. In particular, the giant planets in the solar system may play a role through the gravitational pull they exert on the massive amount of fluid flowing in the outer layer of the sun.
Curiously, this gravitational force can be expressed as a Fourier series whose most important terms have interesting periodicities: one of these coincides with the 11-year cycle of the sunspots. What we may be seeing, therefore, is the direct influence of planetary tidal forces and their effects on the stability of the magnetic loops created in the meridional flows in the sun’s convective layer. These forces could be a major factor in the cycle of magnetic loops believed to create the sunspots.
Jupiter is the largest contributor to the solar plasma tides. It may eventually transpire that its influence contributes to our climate
from Sun. I think the arguments about gas giants are perhaps weak. By my math If you could travel at I mile per second, you could travel 3153600 miles per year and you’d take a long time to reach those gas giants. Even Voyager 1, travelling at 520 million kilometers per year took a long time.
from new scientist
I believe that nobwainer is referring to the work of Dr. Theodor Landscheidt. His theory is pretty well put forth in this paper: New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?
I can hear Leif getting ready to bring out his solar pea again!
“With 6.6 billion people, we cannot afford to have a Maunder-type Minimum right now because food production has barely kept up with population growth”
You are mis-understanding how economies work.
Why on earth would food production ever exceed population growth?
Do you want to be the farmer who’s growing food that nobody will eat?
There is a very strong negative feedback mechanism called the market. It keeps production tied directly to demand. When the amount of food grown is too small, prices go up, and next year farmers plant more. If there is too much food, the opposite happens.
In the US we pay farmers to not grow food. Not only that, but farms that used to exist in the northeast were allowed to return to nature because it was not profitable to compete with the mid-west.
If the price of food became a problem we could stop converting much of it to fuel.
If the price of food became a problem, resistance to GM crops would drop.
If the price of food became a problem, then the price of meat would increase even more. A small drop in meat consumption would free up lots of grain for human consumption.
The food situation is not dire. Not even a new Little Ice Age would create a big problem in regards to food production.
nobwainer (00:39:08) :
Use this tool and you will see what i mean Jean
May I humbly suggest you do a Google search for “Jean Meeus”? Or “Meeus, Jean” if you want to see bibliographic references.
Lucy Skywalker (02:33:34) :
You may not have been around here when we had our biggest rumble over this, see http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/28/astronomical-society-of-australia-publishes-new-paper-warning-of-solar-quieting-and-global-cooling/ for “just a few” comments on barycenters, barycentres, solar tides and the usual acrimony. Leif’s excellent work includes his doubts about tides. Perhaps we can move some of this dicussion over there.
I’d be a lot happier with the esthetic aspects of barycenters if the gravitational analysis was done rigorously with Newton’s Law before employing an unnecessary shortcut like barycenters.
Comparing photos of yesterday to those of today, I’d say this sunspot is fizzling out.
Off topic, and to break one of my own rules (weather anecdotes don’t make climate), it’s been cold in South Africa (via Drudge):
http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=14&art_id=vn20080921084615870C810928
Aint that the 2nd year in a row this happens?
nobwainer wrote:
“Try 1650, 1830, 2010.”
In 1650, the four giant planets were more or less aligned, but not with the Sun. In 2010, the three inner giant planets will be almost aligned with the Sun: Saturn on one side, Jupiter and Uranus on the other side, but Neptune will be 30 degrees off (as seen from the Sun). So, sorry, but I really don’t see any 179-year periodicity.
MarkW
Correction:
We can’t afford NOT to have one.
Otherwise the AGW kooks will have the fodder they need to ram through an eco-dictatorship that would be far more destructive than any little Ice Age.
thanks for the heads up Ric…if he is the same person i am indeed humbled.
And if so he will certainly be able to verify my statements one way or the other.
btw Jean, Saturn needs to be lined up roughly opposite Jupiter, on the other side of the Sun
@Pierre:
Any change but climate ‘stability’ will allow an eco-dictatorship to arise.
Look at the following graph:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
I find it interesting that re-freezing started about 7 to 10 days earlier this year than it did during the previous 6 years. I predicted that earlier this summer.
Dee
I respectfully disagree. If it gets cold, people will only realise what a bunch of charlatans the AGW kooks were, and run them (hopefully) out of town.
Carlwolk,
Nature releases much more CO2 than we do, though it also takes it all back so nature’s co2 usage is in a rather perfect equilibrium.
You have no reason to say that. Where is your evidence. The current “carbon balance” numbers don’t add up. CO2 varies continuously. Wait for AIRS to finally come clean.
@Pierre:
Notice that I didn’t specify from where it would arise.
Thanks Jean thats exactly what i see and 1830 the same….the 30 deg offset of Neptune in 2010 in my mind is still close enough to have cause but perhaps means this coming cycle may not be as strong as 1650. In 1650 my chart shows a very close alignment of all the planets and the sun but not quite exact. The program url i supplied very clearly shows how this line up happens every 178-9 yrs and is interesting to watch as everything lines up.
Human being seem to be quite adept at making patterns out of noise, so I am skeptical about any 179 year periodicity, but given the propensity of the sun to have a bias toward cycles at multiples of 11 years, could it be just a higher order multiple?
11 … 22 … 44 … 88 … 176~179