This is unusual. A live media teleconference on the sun. Even more unusual is this statement:
The sun’s current state could result in changing conditions in the solar system.
As you may recall, I posted an entry about the Ulysses mission back on June 16th and the findings of a lowered magnetic field in the sun, from the JPL press release then:
Ulysses ends its career after revealing that the magnetic field emanating from the sun’s poles is much weaker than previously observed. This could mean the upcoming solar maximum period will be less intense than in recent history.
We live in interesting times.
Dwayne Brown
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1726
DC Agle
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-393-9011
MEDIA ADVISORY : M08-176
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/sep/HQ_M08176_Ulysses_teleconference.html
NASA To Discuss Conditions On And Surrounding The Sun
WASHINGTON — NASA will hold a media teleconference Tuesday, Sept. 23, at 12:30 p.m. EDT, to discuss data from the joint NASA and European Space Agency Ulysses mission that reveals the sun’s solar wind is at a 50-year low. The sun’s current state could result in changing conditions in the solar system.
Ulysses was the first mission to survey the space environment above and below the poles of the sun. The reams of data Ulysses returned have changed forever the way scientists view our star and its effects. The venerable spacecraft has lasted more than 17 years – almost four times its expected mission lifetime.
The panelists are:
— Ed Smith, NASA Ulysses project scientist and magnetic field instrument investigator, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
— Dave McComas, Ulysses solar wind instrument principal investigator, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio
— Karine Issautier, Ulysses radio wave lead investigator, Observatoire de Paris, Meudon, France
— Nancy Crooker, Research Professor, Boston University, Boston, Mass.
Reporters should call 866-617-1526 and use the pass code “sun” to participate in the teleconference. International media should call 1-210-795-0624.
To access visuals that will the accompany presentations, go to:
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/ulysses-20080923.html
Audio of the teleconference will be streamed live at:
– end –
h/t to John Sumpton
I wouldn’t include say the Democrats are “greenlighting” any energy production at all. The recent so-called energy bill that the press is yapping about only allows production beyond 50 miles out and gives the states no incentive to go along. It is just a way for Nancy Pelosi and friends to appear to be helping us while still giving their envirocrit keepers what they want. They may get away with this sham due to a compliant/complicit news media.
terry 46 (10:19:14) Thanks… actually I was looking for updated effects on other planets….i.e. has the ice cap on Mars started growing again? any effects on Saturn or Jupiter consistent with a quieter sun?
thanks terry46, the question was actually me. I found the site, I guess they only update the sunspot number at the end of the month so their stats just run through August. I put a link below if anyone wants to look at a historical list of sunspots by month going back to 1991. We had one in July, zero (or one) in August, and possibly zero again in Sept., so this is easily a 27 year low in sunspot activity.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt
This is very hush hush, so don’t tell anyone.
The teleconference is to announce that the planet is about to be attacked by an enormous mutant star goat. In order to protect mankind, NASA has built three space arks. The idea is that into the first ship, the ‘A’ ship, will go all the brilliant leaders, the scientists, the great artists, you know, all the achievers; and into the third, or ‘C’ ship, will go all the people who do the actual work, who make things and do things, and then into the `B’ ship will go everyone else, the middlemen. Hairdressers, tired TV producers, insurance salesmen, personnel officers, security guards, public relations executives, management consultants and most important of all, the climatologists.
The captain of the ‘B’ ship will be James… and we’re not talking T Kirk. He will lead the glorious departure from our doomed planet to crash… err… land on our new home Golgafrincham. That way, when the rest of us arrive, we’ll be sure to get a good haircut and know the greenhouse gasses are under control.
Douglas Adams saw the future.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/cult/hitchhikers/guide/golgafrincham.shtml
Remember, three of the four participants Tuesday will be Ulysses project scientists, and they will be primarily discussing the results from the Ulysses mission.
http://ulysses.jpl.nasa.gov/
These four may not be willing to go into any discussions about sun-climate relationships, Solar Cycle 24 forecasts, solar Grand Minima, a New Little Ice Age, etc.
Ulysses was a really big deal in solar science. “Ulysses has set the bar on solar science data collection quite high.” It was a 17-year mission that has now ended with the loss of operational capability of the spacecraft.
I’m sure they’ll have some more announcements that will be news to many.
The phrase, “solar wind is at a 50-year low” was news to me. I can’t recall ever hearing that from official US government sources.
I think those of us looking for clues to climate will just have to tune in to the audio of the news conference
http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio
and go to the graphics page
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/ulysses-20080923.html
(nothing there yet – gotta wait til closer to show time)
take notes on the presentation then infer for ourselves what it means, and listen to the various experts weigh in during the days and weeks to follow.
This reminds me of that study that looks at carbon concentration in the atmosphere and how a study was soon to come out.
What ever happened to that study?
Ric Werme and Dee Norris: Thanks by smiles
Leif, and now? Please
If we have to change planets, the literature seems mixed as to whether we should take robots.
NASA will inform us that the lack of sunspot activity has been conclusively linked to climate change on earth due to man’s burning of fossil fuels. NASA is asking the Congress today to approve the emergency appropriation of $250 billion to launch a fleet of satellites to orbit between the earth and the sun. The satellites will solve the problem by opening large umbrella like devices to look like sunspots here on earth. With the sun out of the equation we can blame the next 20+ years of global cooling on man’s burning of fossil fuels….
Comparing the two graphs below, baselining from 1991 and removing the 1998 and 2006 El Nino spikes, global temps show a good correspondence with the referenced solar activity, with a noticable short lag. From this I would recommend stocking up on firewood and blankets for the next several years.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/uah_august2008.png
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/solar-geomagnetic-ap.png
I encourage people to read “The Chilling Stars” by Nigel Calder and Henrik Svensmark. This was a fascinating insight into the science surrounding the solar activity/climate relationship. http://www.amazon.com/Chilling-Stars-Theory-Climate-Change/dp/1840468157
So were we measuring solar wind over 50 years ago or is it the lowest in 50 years?
And somebody posted the following link:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt
It looks to me like Radio Flux and Geomagnetic data have also decreased in recent years.
Fernando Mafili (11:07:39) :
Leif, and now? Please
All they will be saying is that the Sun is back to where it was 100 years ago. I recall having droned on about this on this and other blogs. The 50 years they are talking about is the period covered by spacecraft measurements, but we have other ways of measuring the solar wind properties, e.g as I explained at a seminar at UC Berkeley just last Tuesday: http://www.leif.org/research/Seminar-SPRG-2008.pdf
All solar cycle indicators we have show that the current cycle 23 was just like cycle 13, ten cycles ago. Nothing special, not a ‘new phase’, not the end of the world. Maybe just a belated acknowledgment that perhaps the sun is not at an ‘all-time high’ after all.
If the Sun is the major driver of our climate, the climate should also be back to what it was a hundred years ago. I don’t think it is.
[and don’t tell me about long delays and at the same tell me that the last few months cooling is due to the Sun]. Talk to me about the oceans instead, and their internal oscillations.
The NASA PR mentions that the solar wind is at 50-year low. Fifty years ago was 1958. Was the solar wind lower than it is now before 1958? What was used to measure solar wind in the 1950s and before?
Could it be that the solar wind is at a 100 year low, or maybe a 200 year low?
Scott
If the solar wind is at a 50-year low, that means more cosmic rays striking the atmosphere and alchemically generating carbon. New carbon, in our atmosphere, that will oxidize into even more CO2.
Be afraid.
On a lighter note, I haven’t waded thru the Hays1976 pdf (thanks Gary (09:07:45)) yet, but orbital variations affecting ice ages is a good theory, and verified by computer models. And, I might add, the modeled orbital variations don’t need any “adjustment” factors.
Given all that, we should be able to predict precisely when the next ice age will hit.
Ric Werme
Perhaps an agreement with T. Boone, to construct a giant turbine farm adjacent, to the solar fields, to power giant search-lights, to shine on the solar panels, will provide a solution to the problem of lower energy output from the sun and also alleviate the darkness problem with solar power generators. This of course will necessitate massive subsidies, but not a bail-out, right?
Quite obviously, grants from the DOE will be necessary for feasibility studies, to be conducted, to ascertain the most expensive and least effective solution to the problem.
My prediction is that NASA will relate the Ulysses findings to the impact on upcoming space travel. I would not expect any admission of cooling trends being caused by the Sun’s decreased activity, just that recent decreased solar activity is “masking” AGW (per the current media template).
the sun’s solar wind is at a 50-year low
If I can get no interest / no payments until 2012, I might buy a few bags.
The sun’s current state could result in changing conditions in the solar system.
But a certain website said that when ice caps were shown to be melting on Mars, we were all overreacting….
Last week NASA had to bite the bullet and admit they have been wrong for 30 years about the Antarctic Ice Sheet shrinking – they admitted that it has been growing steadily at .06%. per year. So much for those rapidly rising ocean levels Mr. Gore is so fond of.
Some consensus.
Maybe they are going to announce a bright blast of sunshine has shown them the error of their ways and they will be issuing hair shirts to Hansen et al.
Preemptive strikes against their own incompetence.
Off topic, but interesting:
“In the full-scale plan, 16 trillion lenses would be required to make up the million square miles of area of the sunshield. It is estimated that the shield would require one orbital launch every 20 minutes for about five years to be completed. The programme also investigated the use of a “coil gun” electromagnetic launcher to propel the lenses into space.
Unfortunately, Iris suffered a delayed second stage ignition at around 3,500 feet, and the mission was unsuccessful.”
http://spacefellowship.com/News/?p=6605
The rocket doesn’t look inexpensive, there has to be some whackos with lots of money. Reminds me of the idea, playing on TV, of thousands of robot ships spraying ocean water to make clouds that would reflect sunlight and cool the horribly warm planet.
Roy Tucker– I was self-encouraged, and am on page 125 of The Chilling Stars. I like it as much as I thought I would, and others may also find it fascinating to read the details of the impediments to new ideas suffered by those who fight the popular AGW theory.
Back to the teleconference-the facts cannot be hidden forever.
Mike Kelly,
Privately I agree with you, but publicly (on this forum) I prefer to avoid the politics. No point getting derailed from discussing this very interesting bit of news.
Congrats Anthony! Instalanche on the way.
I think the longer this goes on, the more vindication there will be for Dr. Svalgaard’s work on polar magnetic fields and his prediction with regard to solar cycle 24. Obviously we will have at least a decade before full confirmation, but pretty soon I think Dikpati and all the other theorists predicting a large cycle 24 are going to be searching for new ideas.
Kim
Wasn’t cycle 24 supposed to start last March according to Hathaway? Then when it didn’t happen, they posted that article, “What’s wrong with the sun . . .Nothing?” Now their redacting.
Were they not aware of the decrease in solar wind speed then and that conevyor speed was 75% of normal. What about declining sunspot strength and the extended lack thereof? And, yet, “nothing is wrong with our sun.” Sounds to me like their just whistling past the graveyard.