In August, I reported that the Kasitochi volcano in the Aleutian Island erupted over a million tons of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean, here is a satellite sounder derived image of the cloud that was released:
That was then. Since then, the SO2 has had about a month to disperse around the Northern Hemisphere. Now we can watch it occur, see the movie (animated GIF) below. It may take awhile to fully load on slow connections:
The movie above, the first ever I’ve seen, was created by the University of Bremen in Germany. It shows how a plume of SO2 from the eruption was swirled, twirled and spread via weather systems in the NH during August 2008.
There have been a number of colorfully spectacular sunsets and sunrises since the eruption.
The sky show has subsided as the SO2 clouds have dissipated. But now the really interesting effect begins. With the dispersal happening, we’ll see just how much this million plus tons of SO2 will affect the earth’s albedo, and thus incoming solar radiation. The eruption of Pinatubo had a measurable effect on global temperatures, and while the Kasitochi volcano’s ejecta is smaller by comparison, it will be interesting to see if it enhances the global cooling trend we’ve recently seen.
Time will tell.
h/t Spaceweather.com
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Barry L. (15:58:42) :
“Is there any link between solar behaviour and incidence of vulcanism?
Yes there is!
http://ads.ari.uni-heidelberg.de/full/2003ESASP.535..393S …”
Ugh. I sure hope this paper is wrong.
Dalton Minimum + Tambora = “Year Without a Summer.”
Nobody knows how many people died as a result (record keeping was still poor).
There were anecdotal reports of people dying from eating rotted horse flesh.
In our time, the vast majority of us don’t even have access to fresh horse flesh!
John-x
Not forgetting the 8 month ‘Laki event’ in 1783, which is also well documented. Yet another ‘Year without a Summer’. Not quite as dramatic as Tambora, but with similar effects on the Weather.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2006/volcano_nile.html
Wonder if the historical record bears out the ‘Solar Minima a time of greater volcanic activity’ postulate?
In regards to any correlation between solar activity and volcanism, it sounds quite insane to a casual reader, however…
If this is true and I haven’t looked at any of the links that might have been provided above, it seems that solar activity might be a proxy. The actual cause might be planetary orbit alignment changes inducing gravitational stressing of the Earth’s crust and/or magma flow acceleration/decelerations. The orbit changes would also influence circulation patterns in the Sun which changes solar activity.
I did read this as a proposed theory somewhere that had some physics analysis to support it.
Lucy Skywalker (12:45:02) :
“OT, sorry, but Monckton’s new paper on the HS and the MWP is IMHO well worth a write-up from you. Good thing is, he balances excellent science (MWP) and vital politics (the HS story) very well. A fellow UK citizen I can be proud of.”
I agree.
BTW, I sent a comment to US Pres candidate McCain that he should reconsider his cap and trade position and that, recognizing the political risk, he should form an independent scientific commission to study the issue as a due-diligence action, to make sure the investment will be sound. This is probably the only way out for a politician who has committed to the A-CO2-GW action.
The important aspect for short term climate is how much of the SO2 gets converted into Sulfuric Acid. The effeciency of that chemical change is what determines how effective it is at reflecting sunlight.
Barry L.: Thanks for the link.
Wonder how long it will take for this solar effect to be noticed and ‘quashed’ by Icarus? No doubt, the solar poloidal field will be found to vary at 1 AU by some insignificant amount and the earth effect therefore negligible.
As Kuhn pointed out, paradigms are notoriously resistant to contradiction and change in the face of contravening evidence.
Hey, people often suggest that Pinatubo proves positive feedback of temp. with water vapor. That’s seriously flawed. There are atleast two important feedbacks that make the decrease in humidity fallowing. 1) Aerosols and clouds would reduce light incident on water. That would likely be the main driver of humidity reductions following volcanoes. 2) Aerosols make clould droplets smaller and increase the rate at which they evaporate and condense, radiating heat. 3) They decrease the rate of percipitation.
CRF and magnetic fields could also affect the amount and type of volcanic activity. It’s not implausible that CRF may increase amount of potential cloud nucleation particles as they do in the lower atmosphere over water. Ionization of particles could cause pressure imbalances as could shifts in magnetic fields.
What would happen if airliners began using high sulfur fuel? Would this help reduce global warming? If so, it might be a stop gap measure to get us past the warming crisis.
That is cool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Regarding Monckton’s paper, “Hockey Stick? What Hockey Stick?” (referenced by Lucy Skywalker)–I’m impressed. I did notice a typo, which hopefully someone here will know how to forward to him:
P. 11, penultimate paragraph, first line:
Change “hen” to “when”