As many of you may know, I produce a variety of weather imagery maps for web and broadcast in SD and HD. Since there is a lot of interest in the path of hurricane Gustav, I thought I’d post a near-live image, which will update every 30 minutes.
Click image for full size or animate this image: Click for loop>>> 
What is interesting to note, is that as of this writing, Gustav seems to be losing organization. The eye, which was well defined just before making landfall on Cuba, seems very nebulous. Watch and wait.
Update: 3:30PM PST, while there was some weakening earlier, it now looks like signs of increased angular momentum are showing up in the satellite imagery. A defined eye may appear again.
Thanks for that dynamic hurricane view – very helpful.
On your point of breaking up, suggest providing a similar dynamic view of NOAA’s false color graphic of the hurricane shown at ClimateAudit.org.
See: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
It appears Gustav will re-generate itself and the eye just before making landfall…probably as a Cat. 4 according to most of the experts….*OH MY*
http://www.cookevilleweatherguy.com
I dunno, Gustav is currently expanding in area on the outer bands, rather than contracting. That kind of outflow, in my experience is usually a sign of decreased strength. It appears to be losing angular momentum. Also I’m seeing some vertical convection going on near the center, which doesn’t usually happen in a storm gaining strength.
Gustav looks to be de-evolving some at the moment, but yes it could still regenerate.
I’m not a hurricane expert by any means, but it looks like it is not a tight organized storm at the moment.
Yes, Gustav, even though over the warmest water yet, is being battered by some veritical sheer and some dry air trying to enter through the south. The latest report from Weather Underground has the eye elongating. Still, any winds over 100 mph are very destructive and with a likely storm surge of 15 ft, N.O. is once again going to get flooded.
Hugo, right before it came ashore in South Crolina, looked like the bands were expanding, throwing the center towards North Carolina. Instead it came in at Charleston on a high tide at night. A local weather expert called the Charleston landing whereas the NWS was predicting Myrtle Beach area. Didn’t Camille also show this pattern?
Obama is no doubt headed to the gulf coast now. He’s not going to miss out on THIS body-surfing opportunity!
Michael Moore and the former DNC chairman agreed that the destruction of New Orleans would be hilarious and a “gift from God” to the Democrats. Does that mean that a weakening of the hurricane and the saving of human life is a gift to the Republicans?
The Weather Channel is saying that this apparent collapsing of the eye, is actually evidence that the hurricane is generating thunderstorms and strengthening.
REPLY: Well maybe, I also pointed out the vertical convection (thunderstorms) but when I look at the anvil outflow it is almost straight line to SW…and that is odd to me. I would expect the upper level winds to curve the anvil outflow. Perhaps some shear is occurring. -Anthony
I always thought that a highly defined eye was evidence of strengthening, I was very surprised to hear that the collapsing was. Time will tell.
I wonder. If a cat 4 hitting NOLA is sign that God favors the Democrats, would a reduction to cat1 (or tropical storm) signify a divine preference for Republicans?
I’m no expert, but the visible and RGB imagery seem to show the eye regenerating. The storm still appears asymmetric, but it looks like the SW quadrant is showing CDO which usually means strengthening.
I guess we will have to wait until it gets back into radar range to get a better idea of what is happening.
Maybe God is a libertarian.
REPLY: Ok, enough God in the discussion. Move along.
And for those who appreciate non-anthropogenic causes for increases in SST, here’s a graph of the SST anomalies for the Gulf of Mexico from Jan 1978 to May 2008. Looks like there was definitely a step change (about 0.35 deg C) in Gulf of Mexico SSTs as a result of the 97/98 El Nino and it looks like the effects are still lingering.
http://i33.tinypic.com/2afijdc.jpg
If you’re having trouble seeing it, I’ll throw some before and after 1998 trends on it.
http://i33.tinypic.com/2hyexwj.jpg
There are some people who think the impacts of El Ninos only last a few months.
Regards.
Anthony,
Thanks for the satellite (sp?) loop. Very viscerally effective.
As for Dems vs. Reps – ick. I don’t want to go there as to what strengthening vs. weakening means. I do know that McOld is going to milk this for all it’s worth by maybe even giving his acceptance speech from NOLA, while Obama is evidently not going to insert himself into this disaster – as well he shouldn’t. NEITHER of them should use this disaster for political points.
OTOH, well and good if it backfires on McOld.
REPLY: Julie when commenting here, please don’t fall into the juvenile trap of name calling. McCain is the name.
No one wants to be the one to say it is weakening, when it is still a very dangerous storm.
If you do say it, someone who trys to ride it out, in a trailer home, will blame you for his E-ticket ride.
But I can say it, here. It’s weakening, but the flooding will be severe, and widespread.
No need to use this Anthony’s blog for political point scoring on something that could still be another disaster. It is not appropriate and is very undignified.
A question. Do hurricanes tend to strengthen at night? The temperature difference between water and atmosphere would be greatest then.
Gustave seems to be moving extremely fast. I have to speculate that the sooner it comes ashore the less the damage.
But I have no idea how the well the models do in predicting pace rather than path.
For the really strange person trying to stand on the ground in the face of a hurricane while speaking into a microphone, any hurricane is a mighty force. But when you look from above as the storm system develops and grows, it’s apparent that a hurricane is a fragile thing. From looking at the imagery of Gustav over the past three hours or so, it appears to not only be spreading, but also seems to be becoming somewhat asymmetrical. When it makes landfall, whether as a Cat 2 or 3, it will still be a fearsome thing.
Since it appears that New Orleans has a bull’s-eye painted on it, the next question is where does Gustav go next. And on this point the models wildly diverge. Just what that part of the country needs — a Fay-line storm meandering about.
“For the really strange person trying to stand on the ground in the face of a hurricane while speaking into a microphone…’
Leon, these reporters are not out in the hurricane force winds. I am sure they have safety regulations for when they have to put up the mic and move indoors. I would think around 60 mph winds would be the most you would want to subject anyone to. It is a bone of contention with me that it gives the wrong impression to viewers who have never experienced hurricane force winds. It tends to minimize what 100 mphs winds can do. As an experiement for anyone to get a sense of wind power, stick your head out of the car window at 75 mph and see what it feels like.
REPLY: “I am sure they have safety regulations for when they have to put up the mic and move indoors.” You’ve obviously never worked in TV news. I have. Regulations? We don’t need no stinking regulations! The story (and video) is king at most TV stations. – Anthony
Didn’t Camille also show this pattern?
It’s getting to have been a long time ago. I was 19 at the time. My best memory is Camille’s forward speed stalled just before it came ashore. It sat out over the gulf and wound up real tight before it started moving again. Kicked our rear-ends.
Born and raised in Gulfport. Reside in Biloxi now.
One of the most spectacular sights after Camile were the two ships that floated over the commercial harbor’s bulkheads and onto shore.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Camille_Ship_Wrecks.jpg
I’m not going to get into the God thing, or the political thing, but I’m guessing Mike Bryant was making reference to the Michael Moore and Don Fowler (chair of the DNC) separately making comments about ‘there is in fact a God’. Referring to Gustav hitting NO during the RNC.
I remember Camille. Standing in 6″ of water at midnight or so holding two windows in by their cranks to keep them from being sucked out. They said the wind reached 210 mph.
Bless you, state poet. I’ve heard stories about Camille from my folks, who thankfully, were far away in Fort Worth. One of the tracks, btw, show this being still a hurricane hitting DFW.
bikermailman,
Thanks. Surviving Betsy made us a bit cocky. The eye passed right over my town (Pass Christian,MS).