More anecdotal colder than normal weather keeps piling up. This time it’s in Southern Oregon and Northeastern California. Clearly we are having some far earlier than normal frosts and freezes in the USA, and the situation seems to be mirrored in colder than normal weather in parts of UK and Europe as well.
Note that this frost advisory has no connection to the weather pattern that caused frost and freeze in Minnesota and Wisconsin last night, it is a different frontal system.
NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…TULELAKE…DORRIS…ALTAMONT…
KLAMATH FALLS…BEATTY…BLY…CHEMULT…CRESCENT…GILCHRIST…
SPRAGUE RIVER…LAKEVIEW
238 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
…FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT
TUESDAY…
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 30S IN MANY AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.
Map from National Weather Service, Medford Oregon
h/t to Pamela Gray
I have to agree with Anthony on Global Weather Cycles. Claims of peer-review, but no supporting evidence. Editing mistakes on the website. Profit comes first.
BTW, low 40s here in the Catskills last night. I was looking at historical records for my village and discovered that on July 9th in 1908, they had a frost here. This year the frosts were still occurring in late May.
It is going to be an interesting next decade or so.
One of the local weather persons (not climatologist) in Kansas City, Gary Lezak, has a forecasting system he calls the Lezak Reoccuring Cycle (LRC). His forcast for a cooler summer has been right on in a place where weather patterns can be summarized in the maxim “If you don’t like the weather wait a minute”. If nothing else, its refreshing to see someone put a methodology behind their guess work.
The link below isripe with anecdotal evidence of a cooler summer in KC.
http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/default.aspx
The forecast for a cooler/wetter summer really did come through. We will be talking a lot more about the LRC as the new weather pattern develps this fall.
For tonight and Monday night we are looking at very cool conditions with morning lows in the 50s across the viewing area. Our record low for Tuesday morning is 53 degrees and we may make a run at it here in the city. So ‘free air conditioning’ is in store for everyone!
Now here is a look at the temperature data in regards to departure from average. 2007 is for the entire month, while the 2008 data is thru August 22.
August 2007 +6.3, 2008 -1.8. In 2007 June(-0.4) & July(-1.1) had below average temperatures, with August being well above average. So far this summer temperatures have been below average. Outside of the August departure from average number, June finished +0.2 and July was cooler at -1.4.
Nighttime lows will remain in the 60s, or even the 50s in spots. So don’t expect the average to cooler than average temperatures to leave the area anytime soon.
This links contains background on the LRC.
http://community.nbcactionnews.com/search/SearchResults.aspx?q=LRC&s=1390
Pamela: I agree with you.
Pierre: I agree with you
“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” – Robert Heinlein.
Perhaps mathematically is this:
Climate = ∫∫∫ g(wheather)dtdsdh
g(wheater)= f(anecdotal_cool) + f(anecdotal_warm)
anecdotal_warm = (all the media)
anecdotal_cool = (only on this site)
ops: g(weather)
Isn’t this the guy who has a secret formula for climate prediction for the Farmer’s Almanac? A secret formula is not science. Now where have I heard that?
Two communities went below freezing. Burns, Oregon went down to -3.9C and Lakeview reached -1.0C. Both are agricultural areas in valleys between mountain chains so not good news for these two communities.
Pierre: “One can find VOLUMES of anecdotal evidence on both sides, and make the same claim you do.
Anecdotes are single cherry-picked scattered data points, and are by themselves completely meaningless. If you can show there have been more cold events than warm ones, and that over an extended time period, then you are beginning to talk science. Anything else is pure chatter over the fence in the backyard. Find a single scientist who does not agree with that.
The steady use of randomly selected anecdotes by this website does nothing to increase its integrity. Like it or not, that’s my view.”
And I think you’re missing the point of the anecdotal posts here. On the other side of the fence every single weather event that seems to be associated with warming is touted as “proof” of global warming. I think Anthony’s point here in posting these is that there are as many anecdotes in the other direction as to make such things meaningless. Yet the MSM and even some scientists (and Al Gore) who tout such anecdotes refuse to admit the silliness of using anecdotal “evidence” for long term trends.
Vincent Guerrini Jr. (00:55:19) :
“well it looks like arctic ice has indeed started to re-freeze or at least ceased melting”.
Seems to contradict sea ice extent, not to far off last years melt now. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Appears that this August will come in roughly .15 C cooler than last August and .2 C cooler than July, at least that appears to be what is happening based on the ASU Satellite temp readings. I know those have to be adjusted, but -.15 is pretty large for a year to year drop.
I know DC had a pretty warm June, July was cooler than June, and August is cooler than July. Most decidedly NOT the normal pattern. 10 day forecast shows highs in the 70s for the rest of the month and into Sept. Leaves started turning and dropping in mid-August, also early for around here (Ya, Pierre, I know it’s anecdotal and has no particular signifigance re AGW good or bad, just keeping up with the thread).
Pierre Gosselin (01:19:48) :
“For those of you who believe there are only cold events happening lately, here’s a map to help you find warm ones (scroll down):
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html”
Kind of confirms the idea that if it’s colder in one place it’s warmer in another!
“The steady use of randomly selected anecdotes by this website does nothing to increase its integrity. Like it or not, that’s my view.”
Anecdotes are certainly fast food for the pseudo-intellectuals and senstationalists, you have a very valid point.
I rather enjoy the stories of local weather. Weather is interesting to watch, and since we have the AWG crowd highlighting the warm spells for us, it is nice to have Anthony keep us up on the cold snaps.
The difference is we know the distinction between weather and climate here, unlike a former vice prisident who once proclaimed on a hot day in NYC “if this doesn’t prove global warming, I don’t know what does”. A true statement to say the least.
Interesting that this is a summertime Pacific cold air mass over southern Oregon.
Cold air coming off the North Pacific?
Why, that would imply cooler ocean temperatures, wouldn’t it?
Apparently Shetland has had a nice summer.
Pierre Gosselin
I agree about your comment about anecdotal versus science; however, though scientific methods may be employed the evidence gathered many times is anecdotal of some event/change occurring and it can be interpreted depending on ulterior motives.
Another piece of ‘anecdotal evidence’. Over a week on Vancouver Island with rain and peak temperatures well under 20 degrees Celsius in late August. Might mean something, might well mean nothing.
Anthony,
Re Global Weather Cycles. I share your concern, but here is more information on the Author:
“The release of the book “Global Warming- Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found” culminates 19 years of research clearly linking gravitational cycles as the cause for fluctuations within the earth’s climate. The book is available as an electronic e-Book on the website http://www.globalweathercycles.com . The author David Dilley is a meteorologist and climate researcher with Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), former meteorologist with the National Weather Service, and co-host of the radio program “the Politically Incorrect Weather Guys” airing weekly on RadioEarNetwork.com, an internet streaming radio program.
He cannot send me the book it is only available on Windows, no Mac version.
“Anecdotes are certainly fast food for the pseudo-intellectuals ” Mary Hinge
Humility is the secret to greatness. (However sheer raw talent can overcome a lack of that. But then that begs the question “Where did that talent come from?”)
Meh! Some of us just like to talk about the weather.
Hey, look at that, in the link that Patrick Henry posted most of Minnesota is <0 anomaly but there is a spot right near where Minneapolis/St. Paul is with a small positive anomaly. UHI anyone?
Mary, Pierre and others,
“Watts Up With That?
Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts”
This is not your site. It belongs to Anthony. I reckon he can post and comment on whatever interests him. Many of his posts hold no interest for me, so I withhold my comments. If it holds no interest for you, don’t comment on it. Try imagining that you are in his house with his family. It works for me.
Mary Hinge,
Yeah, that’s a tad strange. I can’t help but wonder about the apparent discrepancy between the two sources.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Just an observation here… When trying to predict the path and development of a hurricane so human settlements (let’s say New Orleans) have time to get out of the way of danger, climatologists use over a dozen models and average the output since they know the models diverge after about 3 days. Even still, airplanes must be sent into these storms to make real time measurements to feed those same models to recalculate the average predicted outcome. On top of that, countless sums of money and research man-hours are being poured into making these models better.
Now, while trying to predict catastrophic danger to the human race, climatologists have happened upon a single or limited number of infallible models accurate to within centuries without the need for real time measures to correct the predicted outcome.
Does anyone else see the irony here? Are we wasting our money and resources on global warming research?…or perhaps on hurricane tracking? Will the real climatologist please stand up?
It seems okay to accept the concept that global temperature increase is related to CO2 but in reality it is only anecdotal but it seems to be accepted as scientific fact by the pseudo intellectual scientists.
dearieme (07:57:15) :
“Apparently Shetland has had a nice summer.”
Ha ha ha. Good one.
“Nice summer” in Shetland = “Brutal Winter” in California
Sorry about this off-topic post but, but I just came across this info and thought it was worth posting. This is a story about a woman who didn’t win the Nobel prize because Al Gore won it instead.
http://www.youtube.com:80/watch?v=OVw1PANUcdg&feature=related
Who do you think was more deserving?
What will this do to this year’s hops harvest?!?!?! We homebrewers have had a dreadful summer with the hops shortage from last year. Fewer, more expensive IPA’s again this year?
Scott